Gears are one of the important components in mechanical products, and their fatigue reliability determines the safety performance of mechanical products. In this paper, the fatigue characteristics of carburized gears under different torque and constant rotational speed conditions are investigated by using a gear contact fatigue testing machine, and combined with the dynamic maximum contact stress distribution on the subsurface of the meshing gears, the very-high cycle fatigue P-S-N curves of carburized gears under a stress ratio of −1 is established. Local stress concentration in the surface or subsurface of carburized gears causes grain dislocation movement under the combined influence of maximum contact and residual stresses, and then causes dislocation pileup and transcrystalline rupture after being hindered by grain boundaries, ultimately leading to pitting and fatigue failure of gears. Based on the dislocation energy method and combined with the fatigue failure mechanism of gears, a life prediction model of gears with good prediction results is established by considering the interaction of factors such as dynamic load, grain size, initial crack length, residual stress, slip band length and width. A fatigue reliability analysis method of gears is established based on the life state equation of gears considering the life prediction model. Further analyses of the influence of rotational speed, grain size, residual stress, slip band width, slip band length and initial crack size on the fatigue life reliability index of the gears resulted in the conclusion that the fatigue reliability of the gears not only decreases with the increase of the above-mentioned parameters, but also shows decreasing trend with the increase of time. This is of significance for evaluating the fatigue reliability of gears under very-high cycle fatigue conditions.