Gas Trade Research Articles

After COP27: Whither climate leadership?

After COP27: Whither climate leadership? The twenty-seventh Conference of the Parties (COP27) – tasked, like every annual UNFCCC conference, to accelerate climate ambition and action – duly laboured under the current global crises. What and where next? 2022 has been a year of multi-dimensional crises as the Russian invasion of Ukraine fostered an energy crisis, deepened the food crisis and, intensified the water crisis and the ‘post-Covid' debt crisis. COP27 certainly felt the impact of these crises. Expectations of the conference were low. Indeed there was understandable worry from the environmental community that the oil and gas sector, heavily represented at Sharm El-Sheikh, would turn the climate conference into a ‘world gas trade fair' (pushing gas as the solution to the energy crisis). The dilemmas posed, for the developed countries, between short-term energy security and longer-term climate action and, for the developing countries, between development and climate action were not addressed head-on.

Složenost nabavke gasa u EU izazvana ratom u Ukrajini

The war in Ukraine affected the global world in many segments, including production, trade, energy supply, and inflation worldwide. And while the economy of Germany and other EU member states are facing numerous challenges in terms of sanctions, among all EU members this crisis will perhaps create the biggest alliance and consensus in terms of preventing the gas import dependence from Russia. With the strengthening of economic relations among the EU members, it is necessary to expect that in the political sense, an even more significant gap will be created between the East and the West. This paper analyzes the available data on the impact of the war in Ukraine on the reliability of gas supply to the EU. Based on comparable secondary data and historical facts, this paper focuses on the previous and current issues of gas procurement and distribution within the EU, but also on the challenges of the future supply of EU member states with this energy. The war in Ukraine has produced a domino effect on global and regional gas trade and the economy. Many causal reactions are already having wide-ranging consequences for the European economy. The gas prices increase, transport costs increase, prices of food and many other goods had been increased, as well as EU economic sanctions against Russia that have already affected the gas trade structure and energy balances of EU members, today have a huge impact on global and regional infrastructure investments. Current anticipations are that the Ukraine war will cause Europe's greatest gas crisis and long-term decisions non-seen since the Cold War

Russia and the World: 2023 IMEMO Forecast

Abridged English-language version of the annual IMEMO forecast ‘Russia and the World: 2023’ is dedicated to the analysis and the forecast of key trends in the world economy and international relations in 2023. The paper is based on decades-long IMEMO experience in forecast research. The primary focus is on the issues that are of fundamental importance for Russia in the near (2023) and more distant future. Experts come to the conclusion, that the ongoing Ukrainian conflict will have an impact on the situation in the socio-economic, energy, foreign policy, military and political spheres. By a synergetic effect, the military-political conflict is aggravated by its overlap with multiple global deformations caused by the 2019–2021 pandemic as well as climate change, which altogether have resulted in rising food and energy prices. In the world economy, the authors of the paper expect the divergence of country economic growth trajectories and increased competition for technological dominance; the global food problem acquiring crisis traits. In the world trade due to the US–EU and US–UK joint energy security efforts and the growth of oil, petroleum products, and gas trade Transatlantic linkage will grow further. At the global level, the energy transition will take longer and cost significantly more than previously thought. In spite of unprecedented sanctions pressure, the global market offers Russian companies opportunities to circumvent Western sanctions. Also, the sanctions regime is constantly adjusted so that it does not cause excessive damage to the functioning of world markets and the economies of the sanctioning countries. When the world enters a post-conflict phase, the key factors affecting the world order will be: the format of US–China relations development – fierce competition vs. economic and military-political confrontation; the dynamics of Transatlantic relations; Russia's policies and the emergence or absence of opportunities to normalize its relations with the West.

Modeling the Behavior of an Agent-enterprise as part of an Artificial Society in an International Trade Network

In the work developing the methodology for creating an artificial society, agent-firms in the agent-based model are considered as elements of an international trade network, formalized in the form of a graph in which they are represented by vertices, and the edges connecting them indicate the direction and magnitude of the flow of material resources and/or services. Using PJSC Gazprom as an example, centrality indices were constructed to characterize the importance of an agent-enterprise in the natural gas trading network, as well as its vulnerability from partner countries, considering the economic weight (importance) of these partners. The indices were used to develop an algorithm for simulating agent behavior based on the theory of functional systems by P.K. Anokhin: a) for the agent to assess his position as the current level of threats, and b) for setting goals and forming a set of projects aimed at developing and protecting his business. The algorithm is configured to minimize the vulnerability (dependence on partners) of the agent-firm both from the countries consuming its products and from the transit countries transporting them.

Revisiting Rentierism through the Lens of Algerian Gas

This paper aims at critically reviewing the concept of rentierism and the Rentier State coined after the oil shocks of the 1970s. It explains that it is the result of a relationship, which properly institutionalized through the market generates a mineral rent. This allows us to argue that the oil price fulfils a systemic role. Finally, this paper assesses the case of Algeria by examining its positioning in the hydrocarbon global value chains, with the aim to draw the conclusions that the future of Algeria as a gas rentier economy is quite unclear, but in the case of a major restructuring of the international gas trade, it could lead to its petrolization.

Modeling World Natural Gas and Crude Oil Trade Networks

World energy security is sensitive to stable energy environment and geopolitics that depend on inter-regional energy trade strategies. However, this study uses the network connectedness measures of Diebold-Yilmaz to find the trade cooperation/competition preference for non-renewables' security development. To this end, the dynamic asymmetries of weighted spillover effects of natural gas and crude oil trade flow components are analyzed throughout world trade networks before- and after the sharp fall in crude oil prices. The results exhibit that natural gas and crude oil trade networks experience asymmetric- and time-varying behavior in response to transitory- vs. permanent components as well as positive- vs. negative shocks pre-and post- sharp fall in crude oil prices. Specifically, the natural gas and crude oil trade networks show a lesser degree of integration after 2014. Moreover, the natural gas trade network represents more (less) weighted sensitivity to short-term fluctuations (long-term trend) than the crude oil trade network pre-and post- 2014. As the other comparative result, a higher (lower) degree of integration is detected in the crude oil trade network in response to the positive (negative) shocks compared to the natural gas trade network pre-and post- 2014. Therefore, a lower level of cooperation preference among regions is proposed in the natural gas and crude oil trade networks in response to a sharp fall in crude oil prices. Also, decisions about energy conservation, environmental protection, and protection of strategic resources can affect a region's natural gas and crude oil supply and demand security.

Price bubbles in the European natural gas market between 2011 and 2020

This study examines the price bubbles in the European natural gas markets. We analyze whether the countries that are located in the same geographical region and using the same pricing methodology may expose quite different numbers of natural gas price bubbles. We apply the methodology known as the generalized sup ADF (GSADF) test by Phillips et al. (2015) using the day ahead data from January 2011 to June 2020. Based on our findings, we show that the Dutch TTF exposes the lowest number of price bubbles, followed by the British NBP, while the Austrian VTP reveals the highest number of price bubbles. Our results show that more established gas markets are subject to fewer price bubbles. Our empirical analysis also provides compelling evidence that the unique characteristics of each hub are important for the number of price bubbles. Furthermore, we confirm that there is a substantial degree of integration in the European natural gas market, as the timing of the bubble periods is quite similar. Identification of a well-functioning natural gas market, which is subject to fewer price bubbles, provides market actors and policymakers with profound information to use in adapting the decarbonized gas market to facilitate sustainable energy transition and expedites the trading of low-carbon gas at the national hubs.

TINJAUAN YURIDIS TERHADAP TINDAK PIDANA TANPA IZIN USAHA NIAGA (STUDI KASUS PUTUSAN NOMOR 149/PID.B/LH/2019/PN SRG)

Indonesia has so many natural resources. For example, there are gold mines, natural gas, petroleum, coal mines, spices, to the abundant underwater natural wealth. So that strict arrangements or regulations are needed for the protection of the utilization of mining goods in Indonesia. The problem in this paper is: What are the provisions of the article regarding oil and gas trading business permits in law number 22 of 2001 concerning oil and natural gas? And what is the basis for the consideration of the Panel of Judges of the Serang District Court Number 149/Pid.B/LH/2019/PN Srg? The research method used is a normative research method that focuses on library research to obtain secondary data from legal materials. The normative approach is carried out by reviewing the applicable provisions or laws and regulations. The results of the research show that as stated in Article 23 paragraph 1 of Law Number 22 of 2001 concerning Oil and Gas, it states that downstream oil and gas business activities can be carried out by business entities after obtaining business licenses from the government. Oil and Gas Business Permits for Downstream Business Activities in the form of Processing Business Permits, Transportation Business Permits, Storage Business Permits, and Trading Business Permits.

INSTITUTIONAL PRECONDITIONS AND GENESIS OF NATURAL GAS EXCHANGE TRADING

Natural gas is one of the world's leading sources of primary energy, and gas exchanges are key players in the natural gas market, which ensure its functioning on a liberal basis. Given the current liberalization trends, exchange trading in natural gas is gaining momentum and importance in this market. The main objective of the study was to determine the institutional preconditions and the main stages of the genesis of the exchange segment of natural gas trade. The study showed that gas exchanges and gas hubs are the key institutions of natural gas exchange trading, as they ensure openness and transparency of the market. As a result of the study, the author identified the following institutional prerequisites for the creation of gas exchanges: the need to form a competitive gas market and ensure its availability to third parties, ensuring transparent pricing and setting the market price for gas, simplification of trade procedures and standardization of products, protection of the execution of agreements and limitation of risks, which is manifested in the security and reliability of supplies and increasing the energy security of the state. Identifying the stages of the evolution of natural gas exchange trading, the author distinguished gas trading on mixed commodity exchanges, gas trading on universal and specialized energy exchanges, which began to emerge slowly in the 1990s, and gas market liberalization, accompanied by a boom in the creation of gas exchanges and gas hubs. The recession of 2008-2009, the shale gas revolution, the process of decarbonization of the economy and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia have been the main catalysts for the modern transformation of the natural gas market in recent decades. The author concludes that the latter will significantly affect the natural gas market in the coming years, which will lead to a revision of European policy in this area and the struggle for energy security. This paper is an original scientific study of the evolution of natural gas exchange trading and makes a certain contribution to the study of the peculiarities of the gas market functioning.

Preliminary study on the global impact of sanctions on fossil energy trade: Based on complex network theory

Russia is the main supplier of fossil energy to European countries. The impact of sanctions on fossil energy trade under the background of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has attracted global attention. Based on the data on fossil energy trade in 2020, this study simulates the impact of sanctions on national trade and global fossil energy trade patterns based on complex network theory and cascading failure model. In terms of negative impact, the crude oil trade has the largest potential impact, the natural gas trade has the largest direct loss and the coal trade has the least impact. To mitigate the impact of sanctions, Russia may shift its fossil-energy export focus to China and other Asian countries. The positive impact analysis shows that crude oil is the main source of benefits for energy exporting countries and the United States will become the biggest beneficiary among energy exporting countries. In addition, the study found that sanctions reshaped the pattern of global fossil energy trade, improved the trade efficiency and energy anti-control ability of European countries, and promoted the transfer of energy control centres from Europe to Asia. It is of great significance to study the impact of sanctions on global fossil energy trade to deal with geopolitical shocks, formulate energy trade policies and manage energy risks.

The Annexation of Crimea and EU Sanctions: An Ineffective Response

Ongoing geopolitical developments regarding Russia and Ukraine have resulted in discussions about the utility of sanctions. This article analyzes European Union (EU) sanctions on Russia following the annexation of Crimea by investigating whether EU-Russia oil and gas trade relations compromised the efficacy of restrictions. It thus argues that the EU did not sanction Russian oil and gas due to EU reliance on these resources. However, the absence of sanctions on these industries cannot be held responsible for Russia’s refusal to leave Crimea since restrictions that were put in place still notably impacted the Russian economy. Hence, other considerations, such as the general inefficacy of sanctions, unintended consequences of the EU restrictions, and deeper historical reasoning clarify why Russia’s occupation of Crimea persisted.

The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the natural gas trade: A network structure dependence perspective

Given the increasing complexity of multilateral relations in the natural gas trade along the Belt and Road (B&R), it is necessary to quantify the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on natural gas trade from the perspective of structure dependence. First, the multilateral trade of natural gas along B&R is abstracted as the liquefied natural gas and pipeline natural gas trade networks (BR-LNGTN and BR-PNGTN, respectively). Second, we analyze the evolution of the network structure and the status change of countries before and after the implementation of the BRI. Finally, based on the temporal exponential random graph models (TERGMs), the evolutionary mechanism of the natural gas trade network and impact of the BRI on the evolutionary mechanism are comprehensively studied. The results show that the implementation of the BRI promotes the network size, but the advantages of trade cooperation have not been fully realized. China and India are the authoritative trading countries, while Russia and Qatar are the primary intermediary countries. Structure dependence, time dependence and trade facilitation significantly impact the generation of the network, but the explanatory power of the exogenous attributes decrease, which indicates that the trade conditions along B&R have been significantly improved.

Finding Global Liquefied Natural Gas Potential Trade Relations Based on Improved Link Prediction

Unstable factors such as international relations, geopolitics, and transportation routes make natural gas trade complex and changeable. Diversified and flexible sources of liquefied natural gas (LNG) can guarantee the energy supply security of natural gas-consuming countries. Therefore, it is very important to find potential natural gas trade links to help the government find potential partners and prepare strategically in advance. In this paper, the global LNG network is taken as the research object. In order to fully consider the importance of nodes and the influence of economic and political factors, the “centrality degree” and “node attraction degree” are added into the link prediction algorithm, and multifactor coupling is carried out. The reliability of the improved algorithm is verified using the area under the curve (AUC) evaluation index, and the prediction results are analyzed. The results are as follows: Trinidad, Russia, Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea (Eq. Guinea) are more likely to establish new LNG trading relationships with other countries. For all potential trade relationships, potential relations involving the above countries are more likely to be realized within 5 years, while potential relations involving China, India, Japan, and South Korea are more likely to be realized within 2 years. China, India, and South Korea are more likely to import LNG from Algeria, and Taiwan Province is more likely to import LNG from Algeria, Angola, Eq. Guinea, and America. On the basis of the above study, states and governments can give priority to the above countries and regions when dealing with the possible LNG supply crisis.

Revisiting the pricing benchmarks for Asian LNG — An equilibrium analysis

This study investigates if the Japan-Korea-Marker (JKM) price is a feasible benchmark to replace the oil indexation in Asian liquified natural gas (LNG) trade. For this purpose, we propose an equilibrium pricing model for the LNG long-term contract (LTC) in Asia. Our model incorporates the risk-averse importer and exporter who optimize their risk-profit tradeoffs by deciding their LTC-spot trade portfolios. Using the model, we compare the pricing efficiency and the risk-profit tradeoff of an importer/exporter under different benchmarks (oil price versus JKM price). The results show that the JKM price is more efficient as an LTC pricing benchmark than the oil price. The JKM pricing benchmark is favored for both exporters and importers when they are low risk-aversion. In addition, we compare the performance of the JKM benchmark based on the CIF price term (i.e., the importer pays for freight charges) with that based on the FOB price term (i.e., the exporter pays for freight charges). We find that the freight liability has little effect on the pricing efficiency of the JKM benchmark.

POTENTIALITY OF SHALE GAS IN GHADAMIS BASIN AS FUTURE ENERGY RESOURCE, LIBYA

In the first ten years of the atheist and the twentieth century has seen signs of a qualitative change in the field of global energy sources, where there are signs of a relative change in the global favorite sources for energy. However, shale gas is the emergence of the global gas market strategies, including associated characteristics as market supply and demand, costs and prices. 
 It is clear that global discoveries of shale gas reserves will re-formulate the geopolitical map of the energy, and will be one of the main sources in the future. After studies and research in many countries U.S. Federal Agency estimates for the Energy Information that shale gas resources could increase recoverable gas by more than 40%, as well as this suggests the possibility of the transformation of many gas-importing countries to producer countries, and some countries may become gas exporter in the future. All these facts pave the way for a new phase become the shale gas wealth that may lead to significant changes in the path of gas trade in the next decade, which may affect the markets and the prices of international oil and gas.
 On the other hand, shale gas exploration and production facing many challenges such as technical applications, environmental impacts and scares of water for hydraulic fracturing and that don’t comply with the international regulations.
 The reserves estimated by EIA indicate that the technically recoverable reserve (TRR) of shale gas in Ghadamis basin ranging from 80-120 tcf. While the ARI study estimated that for Libya the gas-in-place is 1,147 tcf, while the recoverable reserves are 290 tcf. The latter is more than five times longer than the country's proven conventional reserves. Of the gas-in-place, 57 tcf are in the Ghadamis basin and 1,090 tcf in the Sirte basin.
 The main objective of this study is to highlight on the assessment of shale gas discovered in Ghadamis basin in Libya using SWOT (strength, weakness, opportunity and threat) analysis matrix, and comparing evaluation parameters such as basin area, pay thickness, depth, total organic hydrocarbon, and technically recoverable reserve with other basins in the world, as shale gas a new source of energy.

Greenhouse Gas Trading Scheme in the Republic of Kazakhstan - Seven Years from Its Creation, Problems and Solutions

The article studies the greenhouse gas trading scheme in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The research analyzes an international experience in the sphere of greenhouse gas emissions trading and identifies the main provisions which are fundamental for the efficient work of emissions trading schemes. The work of the Kazakhstan greenhouse gas trading scheme was examined through these key provisions. Materials represent the work of emissions trading schemes in several countries, and, particularly, in the Republic of Kazakhstan. For a more detailed study, further directions were proposed to improve the work of the emissions trading scheme. 

The evolution of structural resilience of global oil and gas resources trade network

AbstractThis paper establishes anetwork resilience evaluation framework of the global oil and gas resourcetrade network in 2010, 2015 and 2020. The results are as follows: The links of the oil trade network present a gradually shrinking trend, and the gas tradenetwork presents a trend of close connection first and then reduced. In termsof network density, network centrality, network connectivity and network size, the structural resilience of the oil and gas resource trade network displays ashrinking trend, and the gas trade network is superior. Concerninginvulnerability and recovery, the resilience of the oil trade network issuperior to the natural gas trade network. In simulated attacks, the oil tradenetwork reveals a higher resilience towards intentional attacks, and the gastrade network shows a higher resilience towards random attacks. The Strait ofHormuz and the Strait of Malacca are critical chokepoints in the networks.

USE OF MACHINE LEARNING TO PREDICT PROFIT IN LPG DISTRIBUTION IN METROPOLITAN LIMA

ABSTRACT: The present descriptive quantitative research tries to find out which machine learning model is the most efficient to predict the utility of a bulk liquefied petroleum gas trading company in Metropolitan Lima. To determine daily profit, which will be a variable dependent on the output model. This dependent parameter has five independent variables: sale price, quantity sold, purchase cost, transportation cost and kilometers traveled, as well as the values with the highest correlation coefficients. There are several machine learning models, for this research the Artificial Neural Networks, Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest models will be used, which estimated the utility through their own mathematical algorithms. To simulate the algorithms of the mentioned models, the Python program was used. These models were trained to learn and validate 70% and 30% of the database, that is, of the 235 data collected, 165 data were used to calibrate and 70 data to validate. When making the comparison between the automatic learning models for the estimation of the daily utility of the trading company, the Random Forest model was obtained as the best option, obtaining an R2 of 0.959 and also having the lowest statistical error rates with respect to the models. of Artificial Neural Networks and Multiple Linear Regression. Keywords: Machine learning, artificial neural networks, multiple linear regression, Random Forest and predictive models.

Geopolitical Risk and the LNG-LPG Trade

Abstract We explore the relationship between Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) carrier freight rates and global geopolitical risk, while also controlling for the macro environment. Our results show that a shock in geopolitical risk significantly increases the cost of the spot charter rates for both LNG and LPG carriers, with the impact reaching around 25% for the former and 18% for the latter. Our results bear significant implications for both the companies and the countries involved in the liquefied gas trade, with its importance growing as the use of this energy source is likely to continue substituting other fossil fuels in the future.

Stages of development of LNG production and sales

In 1895 Carl von Linde developed the technology for liquefying natural gas, but only in the early twentieth century commercial production of liquefied natural gas was begun. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas, primarily methane, that has been artificially liquefi ed by cooling to minus 160 °C for easy storage or transportation. It is a liquid that is colorless and odorless. Pure LNG is not fl ammable, does not ignite or explode on its own. There are several stages of development of LNG production and sales. The fi rst stage (1917–1941) — the first LNG plant was built in the USA. In 1917, an LNG plant was built in the US. The second stage (1959–1969) was the beginning of LNG exports from the US to Europe. The third stage (1969–2020) was the development of the world LNG market. As of early 2010, there were more than 30 large-capacity plants in the world aimed at LNG exports. The fourth stage (2020-present) is the impact of the coronavirus on the world LNG market. Since 2010, global LNG exports have increased from 302.4 billion cubic meters to 487.9 billion cubic meters in 2020. LNG already accounts for more than 40 percent of global gas trade. Leading LNG exporters include Qatar, Australia, the USA, Russia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago, Algeria and Indonesia. Russia accounts for 8 % of global LNG exports. The pandemic situation in the world has caused oil prices to fall and remain low, so suppliers with low costs or high margins are in an advantageous position. Nevertheless, several LNG projects are planned to be launched in the near future, which will allow Russia to become one of the leaders in LNG production. The article outlines the stages of development of LNG production and sales, analyzes the current state of global LNG production, and also lists various LNG projects in Russia.