Russia and the World: 2023 IMEMO Forecast

Abstract

Abridged English-language version of the annual IMEMO forecast ‘Russia and the World: 2023’ is dedicated to the analysis and the forecast of key trends in the world economy and international relations in 2023. The paper is based on decades-long IMEMO experience in forecast research. The primary focus is on the issues that are of fundamental importance for Russia in the near (2023) and more distant future. Experts come to the conclusion, that the ongoing Ukrainian conflict will have an impact on the situation in the socio-economic, energy, foreign policy, military and political spheres. By a synergetic effect, the military-political conflict is aggravated by its overlap with multiple global deformations caused by the 2019–2021 pandemic as well as climate change, which altogether have resulted in rising food and energy prices. In the world economy, the authors of the paper expect the divergence of country economic growth trajectories and increased competition for technological dominance; the global food problem acquiring crisis traits. In the world trade due to the US–EU and US–UK joint energy security efforts and the growth of oil, petroleum products, and gas trade Transatlantic linkage will grow further. At the global level, the energy transition will take longer and cost significantly more than previously thought. In spite of unprecedented sanctions pressure, the global market offers Russian companies opportunities to circumvent Western sanctions. Also, the sanctions regime is constantly adjusted so that it does not cause excessive damage to the functioning of world markets and the economies of the sanctioning countries. When the world enters a post-conflict phase, the key factors affecting the world order will be: the format of US–China relations development – fierce competition vs. economic and military-political confrontation; the dynamics of Transatlantic relations; Russia's policies and the emergence or absence of opportunities to normalize its relations with the West.