Futuristic Scenario Research Articles

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of polygenic risk score-stratified screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm

As the heritability of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is high and AAA partially shares genetic architecture with other cardiovascular diseases, genetic information could help inform AAA screening strategies. Exploiting pleiotropy and meta-analysing summary data from large studies, we construct a polygenic risk score (PRS) for AAA. Leveraging related traits improves PRS performance (R2) by 22.7%, relative to using AAA alone. Compared with the low PRS tertile, intermediate and high tertiles have hazard ratios for AAA of 2.13 (95%CI 1.61, 2.82) and 3.70 (95%CI 2.86, 4.80) respectively, adjusted for clinical risk factors. Using simulation modelling, we compare PRS- and smoking-stratified screening with inviting men at age 65 and not inviting women (current UK strategy). In a futuristic scenario where genomic information is available, our modelling suggests inviting male current smokers with high PRS earlier than 65 and screening female smokers with high/intermediate PRS at 65 and 70 respectively, may improve cost-effectiveness.

Impact of 100% vehicle electrification on the distribution grid in dense urban regions

Vehicle electrification is a requisite for cities to combat global warming. A key challenge associated with the wide-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is the impact of charging on distribution networks. The problem is further exacerbated in dense urban regions, where space is intrinsically limited. If the grid infrastructure is too constrained, it will dictate locations where EV chargers can be deployed without the need for costly infrastructure upgrades. In dense urban regions, this may hinder or slow down adoption. This paper investigates the impact of EV charging on the distribution grid in dense urban regions, with a focus on a case study based in Harlem, a neighborhood in Manhattan, New York City (NYC). The impact of EV charging on the distribution grid depends on several factors, including the number of charging stations, their locations, and the charging demand they result in, which also relate to consumers’ charging behavior. To evaluate this impact, load flow analysis was carried out for a futuristic scenario assuming all personal cars become EVs, with a focus on voltage drop and transformer/feeder overloading. It was found that with proper siting of chargers and scheduling for charging the distribution grid can handle a 100% EV scenario without infrastructure upgrade.

Is Government Health Subsidy Targeted Enough in India? Evidence from a Tertiary Hospital

ABSTRACT In emerging economies like India, the focus of public health policies is shifting toward the treating non-communicable diseases to preventing communicable diseases. The public welfare demands appropriate targeted healthcare subsidies for non-communicable diseases. In this paper, we investigate whether out-of-pocket expenditure toward mitigating non-communicable diseases for the poorer section of the population is catastrophic by nature. In a representative futuristic scenario for an emerging economy, we have collected the cancer patients’ expenditure data from the patients and hospital management in a not-for-profit cancer hospital located in the state of Kerala. We have analyzed the variation of expenditure categorized as government subsidy toward treatment, private expenditure toward medical goods and services, and private expenditure toward non-medical goods and services against different socio-economic variables. The analysis of catastrophic health expenditure data reveals that relatively lower income lower-income households face more risk of catastrophic health expenditure and are in greater need of government subsidy.

“As if sky was blue”: An Eco-Marxist Reading of Caryl Churchill’s Play Not Not Not Not Not Enough Oxygen

Humanity is confronted with a growing array of environmental challenges that demand immediate attention and cannot be disregarded. One of the issues the world faces is air pollution, which presents a significant risk to both the environment and human well-being. The capitalist system has a great impact on the exacerbation of air pollution and environmental deterioration. This impact is reflected in Caryl Churchill’s post-apocalyptic play Not Not Not Not Not Enough Oxygen (1971). The play presents a futuristic scenario in which humanity faces grave consequences due to the polluting practices of capitalism and the unsustainable exploitation of natural resources. It depicts a future in which environmental degradation drives people to violence and despair. In such a situation, it highlights the need for immediate action on climate change and ecological collapse. This paper draws upon eco-Marxism as a theoretical framework to comprehensively analyse how capitalism extensively exploits natural resources in pursuit of immediate financial gains, hence detrimentally impacting the environment.

Digital Heterotopias in the Metaverse

At a time when the umbrella term “metaverse” seems to have monopolised the discourse on online social presence, this paper aims to explore the possibility of constructing interactive online spaces that challenge the hegemonic structures of heteronormative society. Before describing the metaverse as a futuristic scenario that catalyses technophobic fears, perhaps we can turn our attention to existing metaverses: one example is the sandbox video game Minecraft, which is characterised by great interactivity and manipulability. Therefore, by analysing the immersive and interactive artwork g(Ender Gallery) by artist Cat Haines, which was created entirely on Minecraft in 2021, I will explore how the platform can be used to build a playful ground and at the same time a critical arena of gender norms and a deep reflection on trans experience.

Data-Driven Futuristic Scenarios: Smart Home Service Experience Foresight Based on Social Media Data

Exploring future scenarios can consider future generations and society from a long-term perspective. A Futures Triangle is an approach used for mapping future scenarios. In general, the Futures Triangle collects weak signals using qualitative research methods. However, collecting weak signals qualitatively is limited by its small data size and manual data analysis errors. To overcome those limitations, this study proposes the data-driven futuristic scenario approach. This approach analyzes a large number of social perceptions existing in social networks as weak signals via semantic network analysis. Using our proposed data-driven approach, researchers can quantitatively collect weak signals for a Futures Triangle. To verify the applicability of the proposed method, we conducted a case study on the Chinese smart home service experience. The dataset consists of 2421 posts containing the keyword “smart home experience” on the Chinese social media platform Weibo. Three future scenarios were constructed using the proposed method. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. The data-driven futuristic scenario approach has the advantage of quantitatively analyzing a large amount of stakeholder data to provide weak signals for the Futures Triangle. We suggest that the data-driven futuristic scenario approach serves as a supplementary method, combined with the traditional Futures Triangle approach, to comprehensively explore future scenarios.

Beyond Skin-Deep: The Relationship between Beauty Ideals and Identity Crisis in Scott Westerfeld's Uglies

Uglies (2005) is the first in Scott Westerfeld's Uglies series of novels. It is a literary work with a futuristic scenario thaP depicts a dystopian world in which people are preoccupied with unnatural standards of beauty. In a realm where science and fiction intertwine, the themes of beauty, identity, and the insidious influence of brainwashing take center stage, inviting readers to delve into the complexities of these interconnected concepts. The tapestry of the novel also involves a speculative discourse surrounding the deleterious implications of cosmetic surgery, thereby engendering an intellectual milieu wherein the ramifications of such practices are rigorously examined and debated. Drawing upon Erik Erikson's identity development theory (1950) and Henri Tajfel and John Turner's social identity theory (1979) as theoretical frameworks, this research paper aims to present an analysis of how the pursuit of beauty ideals contributes to the formation of an externally appealing but inwardly conflicted self-image.

Making Robotic Swarms Trustful: A Blockchain-Based Perspective

Abstract Lately, the importance of swarm robotics has been recognized in a wide range of areas, including logistics, surveillance, disaster management, agriculture, and other industrial applications. The swarm intelligence introduced by the existing paradigm of artificial intelligence and machine learning often ignores the aspect of providing security and reliability guarantees. Consider a futuristic scenario wherein self-driving cars will transport people, self-driving trucks will carry cargo between warehouses, and a combination of legged robots/drones will ship cargo from warehouses to doorsteps. In the case of such a heterogeneous swarm of robots, it is crucial to ensure a trustful and reliable operating platform for smooth coordination, collaborative decision-making via appropriate consensus, and seamless information sharing while ensuring data security. In this direction, blockchain has been proven to be an effective technology that maintains the transactions (records) in a trustful manner after being validated through consensus. This guarantees accountability, transparency, and trust concerning the storage, safeguarding, and sharing of information among the parties. In this paper, we provide a walkthrough demonstrating the feasibility of using blockchain technology to make the robotic swarm trustful systems in their adoption to critical applications at large-scale. We highlight the pros and cons of the use of cloud vis-a-vis blockchain in swarm robotics. Finally, we present various future research opportunities pertaining to the adoption of blockchain technology in swarm robotics applications.

Optimization of transition behaviors in a two-lane system

Transitions between two lanes often have a significant impact on various forms of road traffic. To address this problem, we have developed a two-lane asymmetric simple exclusion process model and two hypothetical traffic control strategies, to simulate a futuristic scenario where the timing and location of transitions between two lanes are highly controlled. Various scenarios were proposed to study the effectiveness of these control strategies. An optimized control strategy, whose parameters were determined through an optimization algorithm, is confirmed to effectively maximize the average traffic flow. Consequently, we may identify suitable road sections and the corresponding timings of transitions to resolve congestion in this model.

AR-Supported Supervision of Conditional Autonomous Robots: Considerations for Pedicle Screw Placement in the Future.

Robotic assistance is applied in orthopedic interventions for pedicle screw placement (PSP). While current robots do not act autonomously, they are expected to have higher autonomy under surgeon supervision in the mid-term. Augmented reality (AR) is promising to support this supervision and to enable human–robot interaction (HRI). To outline a futuristic scenario for robotic PSP, the current workflow was analyzed through literature review and expert discussion. Based on this, a hypothetical workflow of the intervention was developed, which additionally contains the analysis of the necessary information exchange between human and robot. A video see-through AR prototype was designed and implemented. A robotic arm with an orthopedic drill mock-up simulated the robotic assistance. The AR prototype included a user interface to enable HRI. The interface provides data to facilitate understanding of the robot’s ”intentions”, e.g., patient-specific CT images, the current workflow phase, or the next planned robot motion. Two-dimensional and three-dimensional visualization illustrated patient-specific medical data and the drilling process. The findings of this work contribute a valuable approach in terms of addressing future clinical needs and highlighting the importance of AR support for HRI.

Design of impulsive asteroid flybys and scheduling of time-minimal optimal control arcs for the construction of a Dyson ring (GTOC 11)

This paper describes the approach used by the team named the Eccentric Anomalies to obtain the sixth best solution to the problem of the eleventh Global Trajectory Optimization Competition, whose futuristic scenario of Dyson sphere building remained mathematically relevant for current space mission design and engineering in general. As usual for this recurring challenge, it involved large-scale combinatorics at a high level and a multitude of optimal control problems at a lower level. Furthermore it proposed additional layers of complexity by adding a strong scheduling component to the usual flyby sequencing, and by featuring both impulsive and continuous-thrust trajectories. The authors took advantage of modern theoretical techniques and open-source tools to put together a sequential process including analysis based on analytical trajectory models, tree searches using efficient data structures, global and local finite-dimensional optimization and multi-objective trade-offs. The optimal control part was both tackled with direct transcription as well as indirect shooting methods, and the mixed-integer scheduling reformulated as a bi-level optimization. From a programming point of view, the main framework was set in an interpreted language whilst using as much as possible dependencies written in compiled ones for speed.

Ecospheric life cycle impacts of annual global space activities

This paper presents a first-order approximation of ecospheric life cycle impacts from annual global space activities across two scenarios using a streamlined Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA). The first scenario considers all space missions launched throughout the 2018 calendar year whilst the second is a futuristic scenario where affordable access to space significantly increases the prevalence of space operations. A new space-specific life cycle database and sustainable design tool called the Strathclyde Space Systems Database (SSSD) has been used to compile the inventory of each scenario and generate results across numerous impact categories. The results for each scenario are then compared against normalised values to portray their contribution towards annual worldwide impacts and their severity in terms of planetary boundaries. This allows the relative life cycle sustainability impacts of space activities to be benchmarked for the first time, forming a basis for evaluation and discussion. Overall, the study highlights that despite the relatively small footprint of the space industry at present, this will likely become much more meaningful in the future based on predicted trends. This places an added importance on addressing potential adverse life cycle impacts within the design process of future space technologies and products.

KOAGULANDO: A FUN GAME TO LEARN ABOUT THE BLEEDING CASCADE

Koagulando is a game build for mobile phones to enhance the learning process of hemostasis. Materials and methods: The game was built as a mobile app for Android. It is free and has an easy game interface. The language is Portuguese, and the intellectual content is totally from the author. A game designer enterprise developed the codes and arts for the game. The game has three levels to simulate the bleeding cascade pathways. The student plays as the coagulation factors in a futuristic scenario. The factors act like secret agents in a mission. Windows with the level objectives are displayed for the understanding of the level. After finishing the game, the student has to answer a short quiz. In Brazil, among the various schools of medicine, the official curriculum is traditionally divided into three moments that can be different from school to school but shares the same parts: One cycle called the Basic module where the students have disciplines like anatomy, physiology, and others that are common among all the health sciences; the Clinical module which includes the specific medical topics and the medical internship, a practical rotation scheme. The physiology of hemostasis is one of the most challenging topics in the Basic module. The complex theme, the importance in the medical field, and the short time reserved to its comprehension by traditional medical courses make teaching a colossal challenge to teachers.KOAGULANDO is a game developed exclusively to learn about the bleeding cascade using a mix of platform videogame and technical comments about the hemostasis phenomenon. The proposal is a free game for mobile phones or computers, using gamification as a facilitator about understanding the coagulation pathway. To my best knowledge, the only computer game designed specifically for Hematology teaching is the Hemoquest, a game developed by this author in partnership with a designer available only for Android. A quick search in the App Store for IOS and Google Store for Android using the descriptors “hematology,”“coagulation,”“bleeding,”“leukemia,”“transfusión,”“anemia, “oncology”did not found any specific game for educational purposes. The same search in Portuguese found only the Hemoquest. In the author's experience, using Hemoquest since 2019 in the Federal University of Paraiba, as a complementary tool in his Hematology course, the student adherence is almost 100%, with a significant percentage of acceptance among them. The major obstacle is the students Access to mobile phones and technology. Gamification can be a powerful tool to enhance the learning of complex topics in Hematology.

Digital Scientist 2035—An Outlook on Innovation and Education

With the advent of the fourth industrial revolution accompanied by the Internet of Things, the implementation of smart technologies and digitalization already had a great impact in our society, especially when considering exponential innovation and human development. In this context, some types of employment have already been replaced or have been enhanced by the use of robots, human-machines interfaces and Artificial Intelligence systems. And there is likely more to come. If innovation can be viewed as a direct or indirect outcome of scientific research, which role will a scientist play in 2035? We developed a survey to investigate the opinions of scientists with respect to the possible future implementation of disruptive technologies, their feelings and approaches to digitalization, and particularly the impact of digital transformation on scientific education. In a futuristic scenario, we can imagine that scientists will be supported by technologies, carrying out numerous experiments, managing big datasets, producing accurate results, increasing communication, openness and collaboration among the worldwide scientific community, where ethics, regulations and social norms will always be observed. The new era of Digital Science is coming, in which humans will start to incorporate more disruptive and advanced technologies into their daily life; essential aspects for exponential innovation and development.

Global 1-km present and future hourly anthropogenic heat flux

Numerical weather prediction models are progressively used to downscale future climate in cities at increasing spatial resolutions. Boundary conditions representing rapidly growing urban areas are imperative to more plausible future predictions. In this work, 1-km global anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) datasets of the present and future are constructed. To improve present AHE maps, 30 arc-second VIIRS satellite imagery outputs such as nighttime lights and night-fires were incorporated along with the LandScanTM population dataset. A futuristic scenario of AHE was also developed while considering pathways of radiative forcing (i.e. representative concentration pathways), pathways of social conditions (i.e. shared socio-economic pathways), a 1-km future urbanization probability map, and a model to estimate changes in population distribution. The new dataset highlights two distinct features; (1) a more spatially-heterogeneous representation of AHE is captured compared with other recent datasets, and (2) consideration of future urban sprawls and climate change in futuristic AHE maps. Significant increases in projected AHE for multiple cities under a worst-case scenario strengthen the need for further assessment of futuristic AHE.

A Phenomenological Study:

The original plan of this research was to collect multiple sets of data from business students in a 2020 spring study abroad program including the pre-departure course, the experiential learning in Thailand and post experience. When the World Health Organization (2020c) categorized the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic, the pre-departure course was interrupted, resulting in the remaining sections of the program to be cancelled. To date, since no previous research was available on a pre-departure course interrupted by a pandemic of this kind, the experiences of the two faculty members teaching the course became central to the research making this study phenomenological. The experiences were captured by daily notes with reflections leading to four key findings: 1. The course lacked skills training and needed to be redesigned as it would be offered in spring 2021. Adding practical applications to the comprehensive collection of materials would lead students to start shifting their mindsets prior to the trip rather than during the trip resulting in maximized experiences. 2. The COVID-19 outbreak was unprecedented in that it was not a short-lived occurrence but an on-going crisis. The uniqueness of the situation brought futuristic thinking and scenario planning to the forefront when developing and implementing such global programs. 3. Faculty were not prepared for an on-going crisis. To be able to cope with similar uncertainties and act decisively, faculty leading such experiences needed training in futuristic thinking and scenario planning. 4. Faculty country-expertise strengthened student trust when teaching the course. Developing, teaching such courses, and leading such experiences need to be backed up by location-expertise to foster confidence for optimal benefits.

Crowd-Based Cognitive Perception of the Physical World: Towards the Internet of Senses.

This paper introduces a possible architecture and discusses the research directions for the realization of the Cognitive Perceptual Internet (CPI), which is enabled by the convergence of wired and wireless communications, traditional sensor networks, mobile crowd-sensing, and machine learning techniques. The CPI concept stems from the fact that mobile devices, such as smartphones and wearables, are becoming an outstanding mean for zero-effort world-sensing and digitalization thanks to their pervasive diffusion and the increasing number of embedded sensors. Data collected by such devices provide unprecedented insights into the physical world that can be inferred through cognitive processes, thus originating a digital sixth sense. In this paper, we describe how the Internet can behave like a sensing brain, thus evolving into the Internet of Senses, with network-based cognitive perception and action capabilities built upon mobile crowd-sensing mechanisms. The new concept of hyper-map is envisioned as an efficient geo-referenced repository of knowledge about the physical world. Such knowledge is acquired and augmented through heterogeneous sensors, multi-user cooperation and distributed learning mechanisms. Furthermore, we indicate the possibility to accommodate proactive sensors, in addition to common reactive sensors such as cameras, antennas, thermometers and inertial measurement units, by exploiting massive antenna arrays at millimeter-waves to enhance mobile terminals perception capabilities as well as the range of new applications. Finally, we distillate some insights about the challenges arising in the realization of the CPI, corroborated by preliminary results, and we depict a futuristic scenario where the proposed Internet of Senses becomes true.

Learning to face global food challenges through tourism experiences

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provoke reflections on the potential contribution of food tourism experiences to achieving the sustainable development goals for eradicating hunger and malnutrition.Design/methodology/approachIn line with the creative analytic practice in scientific inquiry, this study develops and discusses a futuristic scenario inspired by a factual company. The case is based on ideas derived from studies on educational and food tourism and entrepreneurship, more precisely ecopreneurship.FindingsFood tourism can offer an opportunity for discussing food challenges in the context of ideas and projects to alleviate hunger and malnutrition. This study shows that imagining such possibilities and projects is challenging because of the complexity of the issue.Practical implicationsThis study suggests that despite some limitations, educational food tourism experiences might go well beyond the issues of regional development, localism and authenticity. Practitioners, including tourism entrepreneurs and private and public food and tourism organisations, might be essential to exploring alternative food tourism futures in ways that truly contribute to urgent global challenges.Originality/valueThe value of this paper lies in the use of a scenario to imagine and to reflect on the future of food tourism in relation to the global challenges of hunger and malnutrition. The paper suggests that the ideas from tourism studies and ecopreneurship can offer interesting perspectives on future developments in the sector.

On the Rising Interdependency between the Power Grid, ICT Network, and E-Mobility: Modeling and Analysis

Boosting critical infrastructures’ (CIs) preparedness to threats, including natural disasters and manmade attacks, is a global imperative. The intrinsic dependencies and interdependencies between CIs hinder their resiliency. Moreover, the evolution of CIs is, in many cases, en routè to tighten those interdependencies. The goal of this paper is to uncover and analyze the rising interdependency between the electric power grid, information and communication technology (ICT) networks, and transportation systems that are heavily reliant on electric-power drivetrains, collectively referred to hereafter as electro-mobility (e-mobility). E-mobility includes electric vehicles (EVs) and electric railway systems. A new influence graph-based model is introduced, as a promising approach to model operational interdependencies between CIs. Each of the links of the influence graph represents the probability of failure of the sink node following a failure of the source node. A futuristic scenario has been analyzed assuming increased dependency of the power grid on ICT for monitoring and control, and high penetration levels of EVs and distributed energy resources (DERs) in an urban region. Inspecting the influence graph shows that the impact of interdependency between the power grid, the ICT network, and the transportation network, for the case study analyzed in this paper, does not lead to failures during normal operation with proper design; however, it is severe during emergency conditions since it leads to failure propagation among the three CIs. This paper sets the stage for more research on this topic, and calls for more attention to interdependency analysis.

An analysis of centennial wind power targets of Turkey

Wind power has become one of the cost-effective options for improving the energy mix, while the wind farm installations reach higher shares by new capacity additions in Turkey, similar to many other countries, in order to support the sustainable development targets. Various methodologies are implemented and applied for planning and optimizing energy systems of countries, taking into consideration the energy, economy, and ecology aspects as a whole. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the implications of "2023 energy targets" policy in terms of wind power. A futuristic scenario was tailored and applied to a comprehensive energy model for the energy system of Turkey. The official wind energy vision and goal of Turkey were analyzed by applying a scenario based on 20,000 MW wind power capacity installation by the year 2023. The results indicated that, if applied, this action will increase the share of wind power utilization to the level of 16 % in the total renewables while the installed wind capacity will reach 18 %. Finally, the total cost of this strategic target which doubles the installed capacity and electricity generation by wind power, including the respective investment costs and subsidizations results, were calculated as $24.78 billion on the analysis horizon.