Future Water Resource Management Research Articles

Land use change and climate trend in Krenceng watershed, Banten Province, Indonesia

Krenceng watershed, a small watershed located in Cilegon city, plays a vital in supplying water demand for industrial and domestic sectors. This research aimed to analyze land use change and climate trends to improve future water resources management in the Krenceng watershed. In this research, remote sensing satellite data such as Landsat 5 in 1990, the Pleiades in 2020, Topographic Maps of Indonesia, and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) were used to analyze land use change by using ArcMaps 10.3. Weather data such as air temperature, air relative humidity, and rainfall were collected from the closest Meteorology Station of Krenceng from 2017 to 2020. The determination of dry and wet seasons was analyzed using the first derivative of cumulative rainfall and evapotranspiration. This research showed that the built-up areas were increasing from 94 to 246 hectares, the reservoir increasing from 81 to 109 hectares, and the mixed plantation decreasing from 952 to 731 hectares. The shift of the wet season decreasing from 251 days to 179 days. Meanwhile, the trend of the dry season is increasing from 114 days to 186 days. This result indicated that the climate trend changed over the three periods from 2017 to 2020.

The temporal variations in runoff-generation parameters of the Xinanjiang model due to human activities: A case study in the upper Yangtze River Basin, China

Study regionUpper Yangtze River Basin, China. Study focusThe intensification of climate change and human activities leads to non-stationarity of hydrological processes. Previous studies mainly focus on monthly hydrological or Budyko models. However, it is a challenge that catchment hydrological responses to human activities for daily hydrological models. This study aims to evaluate anthropogenic impacts on water yield of the upper Yangtze River Basin by representing the Xinanjiang model parameters as functions of socio-economic factors. New hydrological insightsThe hydrological parameters WM (soil water storage capacity) and KE (ratio of potential evaporation to pan evaporation) increased in 1976–2000, while the parameter B (non-homogeneity of the soil water storage capacity) declined. It is further demonstrated that the population and the drainage area of reservoirs have the greatest impact on B and WM, respectively. Their linear functional form is validated to be effective for improving streamflow simulation. These findings can help understand the non-stationarity of the rainfall-runoff relationship due to increasing human development and contribute to adaptive development strategies for future water resource management.

A hybrid statistical decision-making optimization approach for groundwater vulnerability considering uncertainty

Recognizing the vulnerable areas for contamination is a feasible way to protect groundwater resources. The main contribution of the paper is developing a hybrid statistical decision-making model for evaluating the vulnerability of Shiraz aquifer, southern Iran, with modified DRASTIC (depth to the water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of the vadose zone, and hydraulic conductivity) by using the genetic algorithm (GA), the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method, and factorial analysis (FA). First, considering the variation of the uncertain parameters, 32 scenarios were defined to perform factorial analysis. Then using the AHP method and GA, DRASTIC parameters were rated and weighted in all scenarios. To achieve the optimal weights for parameters, the objective function in GA was maximizing the correlation coefficient between the vulnerability index and the nitrate concentration. The single and interactive effects of parameters on groundwater vulnerability were analyzed by factorial analysis. The results revealed that the net recharge had the highest single effect, and the resulted effect between net recharge and hydraulic conductivity was the most significant interactive effect on the objective function. Besides, the variation of aquifer media does not change the objective function. The application of the proposed method leads to a precise groundwater vulnerability map. This research provides valuable knowledge for assessing groundwater vulnerability and enables decision-makers to apply groundwater vulnerability information in future water resources management plans.

Projected Land Evaporation and Its Response to Vegetation Greening Over China Under Multiple Scenarios in the CMIP6 Models

AbstractLand evaporation (ET) is of great significance in climate change research, water resource management, and numerical weather forecasting. In this study, Ridge Regression Method and Sensitivity Analysis Methods have been used to study the projected land evaporation changes over China, and its response to vegetation greening under low (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP]1‐2.6), medium (SSP2‐4.5), and high (SSP5‐8.5) forcing scenarios during 2020–2099, based on 16 of the latest generation of Earth System Models (ESMs) taking part in the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Land evaporation is projected to significantly increase under all climate change scenarios, especially in the southern China where there is a humid climate. The influencing factors, including precipitation, air temperature, solar radiation, and leaf area index (LAI), are analyzed; LAI is indicated to dominate the interannual variations of land ET, contributing over 40% of the interannual variance in the warming climates. However, the sensitivity of land ET to vegetation greening is found to generally reduce along with the increasing radiation forcing levels. Such a reduced sensitivity is particularly true when making intermodel comparisons, possibly due to the uncertainties of vegetation parameterizations in different models. This study reveals the response of land ET to vegetation greening under multiple climate change scenarios, which may help to understand the essential role of vegetation in water cycle and provide support for future water resource management.

Water Resource Management: Moving from Single Risk-Based Management to Resilience to Multiple Stressors

Water resource management in the UK is multifaceted, with a complexity of issues arising from acute and chronic stressors. Below average rainfall in spring 2020 coincided with large-scale changes to domestic water consumption patterns, arising from the first UK-wide COVID-19 lockdown, resulting in increased pressure on nationwide resources. A sector wide survey, semi-structured interviews with sector executives, meteorological data, water resource management plans and market information were used to evaluate the impact of acute and chronic threats on water demand in the UK, and how resilience to both can be increased. The COVID-19 pandemic was a particularly acute threat: water demand increased across the country, it was unpredictable and hard to forecast, and compounding this, below average rainfall resulted in some areas having to tanker in water to ‘top up’ the network. This occurred in regions of the UK that are ‘water stressed’ as well as those that are not. We therefore propose a need to look beyond ‘design droughts’ and ‘dry weather average demand’ to characterise the management and resilience of future water resources. As a sector, we can learn from this acute threat and administer a more integrated approach, combining action on the social value of water, the implementation of water trading and the development of nationwide multi-sectoral resilience plans to better respond to short and long-term disruptors.

Diverse trends in observed pan evaporation in South Africa suggest multiple interacting drivers

Planning for future water resource management in a warming climate is confounded when an expectation of increasing evaporation from open water surfaces with global warming is contradicted by observations of secular declines of pan evaporation. Decreasing pan evaporation has been observed globally – a trend which has been attributed variously to declines in wind run (‘global stilling’), declines in radiation (‘global dimming’) and increases in ambient humidity. This contrast between expectation and observation is known as the ‘evaporation paradox’. We evaluated trends in Symons pan evaporation from 154 pans across South Africa. Whilst 59 pans (38% of the 154) showed a statistically significant decrease in observed evaporation rates (p≤0.05), 30 (20%) showed an increase, and 65 (42%) showed no change. These results do not support simple attributions of trends to a common global cause. There is no spatially coherent pattern to trends across South Africa, suggesting that shifts in local drivers of evaporation confound expectations of secular trends due to global drivers. Changes in fetch conditions of the Symons pan installations may be implicated, whereby increasing tree density (through afforestation, alien plant invasion and woody thickening) increases surface friction, reducing wind run, and/or irrigation nearby, increasing local humidity. Correct attribution of the evaporation paradox to reduced wind run in South Africa must consider changing local conditions. Increased tree cover has been observed near a third of the South African Symons pans. Observed evaporation increases for one fifth of pans may implicate expected global drivers for pans where local fetch conditions have remained relatively constant.Significance:
 
 Observed trends in Symons pan evaporation data for stations across South Africa comprise significant decreases (38% of stations), no change (42%) and significant increases (20%), with no clear geographic bias or coherency in the distribution of these trends.
 The observed diversity in trends appears to reflect local and global drivers, with land-cover changes emerging as a likely dominant local driver via friction-induced reductions in wind-run, possibly resolving the ‘evaporation paradox’.
 Observed trends in pan evaporation data may only be of value in testing for the impact of global drivers, such as global warming or global stilling, if local effects are accounted for. Caution is urged when using pan evaporation data for water resource planning.
 Attribution of observed trends requires a case-by-case assessment of local to regional land-cover and land-use changes, in addition to global influences.

Assessment of the impact of short-term land use/land cover changes on water resources in the Yanghe reservoir basin, China

Abstract Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) is a main factor that affects the hydrological process of catchments. A better understanding of its influence is of great significance to future land use planning and water resources management. Since 2011, the local government has implemented a land remediation plan, and the LULC in the Yanghe Reservoir Basin has undergone major changes. This paper uses The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to study blue water (BW) and green water (GW) resources in three typical years (a wet year, dry year, and normal year) under two LULC scenarios in the basin in 2010 and 2017. The results show that from 2010 to 2017, the area of cultivated land and residential construction land increased by 227.28% and 269.23%, respectively; the area of unused land, woodland, and grassland decreased by 98.84%, 35.90% and 39.52%, respectively. Compared with the results of the 2010 LULC scenario, the average BW of the three typical years under the 2017 LULC scenario decreased by 11.66%, 52.32%, and 21.95%, respectively, and the average GW flow increased by 6.72%, 2.90%, and 6.83%, respectively, and the average GW reserves decreased by 14.80%, 11.39%, and 7.67%, respectively. Therefore, this study believes that changes of LULC have led to a significant decrease in runoff and an increase in evapotranspiration in the basin.

The impact of using different probability representations in application of equidistant quantile matching for bias adjustment of daily precipitation over the Daqing River Basin, North China

AbstractThis study focuses on how the representation of daily precipitation probability distributions may affect the application of equidistant quantile matching (EDCDFm). Five representations, that is, two parametric distributions and three nonparametric approaches, are selected. The parametric distributions include Gamma and Weibull while the nonparametric approaches include empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) and kernel density estimation method (KDE) as well as an improved KDE named diffusion‐based kernel density estimation (DKDE). All five methods were applied to correct the daily precipitation of 11 stations over the Daqing River Basin, North China in 1981–2015. The results demonstrated that DKDE is closer to ECDF than the other three methods in the goodness‐of‐fit evaluation. Furthermore, nonparametric methods present advantages over parametric methods; especially, DKDE and ECDF are skilful equally and both of them display impressive comprehensive performance than other methods by multi‐index. These findings suggest that representing the precipitation probability distributions accurately is beneficial for the bias correction and selecting one or more suitable indexes is of great significance to the verification of EDCDFm. This study can provide guidance for future water resources management of the Daqing River Basin.

Influence of multisite calibration on streamflow estimation based on the hydrological model with CMADS inputs

Abstract Due to the spatial heterogeneity, the hydrological model calibration results only at the total outlet of the basin may not represent the whole basin. To more accurately simulate the historical streamflow process within the Qujiang River Basin, we set up three calibration strategies (single-site, S1; multisite simultaneous, S2; and multisite sequential, S3) for four hydrological stations based on the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model driven by CMADS (China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets for the SWAT model). In addition, the implications of these calibration issues are extended to future streamflow projections using multimodel ensemble data in CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6). In the model calibration phase, the SWAT model achieved very satisfactory results in the study area. Compared with S1 and S2, S3 can effectively improve the accuracy of streamflow simulation of stations within the basin and reduce the simulation deviation. Especially at the daily scale, the average NSE values of the four stations with S3 increased by 0.26 and 0.07, and the overall deviation decreased by 0.25 and 6.43%, respectively. Parameter sensitivity analysis also shows that spatial heterogeneity can be more adequately considered when using S3 to calibrate the model. As for the results of future streamflow projection, when using the S3, the average annual streamflow of four stations in the three climate scenarios from 2021 to 2050 is about 44.21, 130.00, 321.55 and 713.24 m3/s, respectively. Correspondingly, the use of S1 and S2 would bring certain risks to future water resource management.

Analysis of the Future Land Use Land Cover Changes in the Gaborone Dam Catchment Using CA-Markov Model: Implications on Water Resources

Land use/land cover (LULC) changes have been observed in the Gaborone dam catchment since the 1980s. A comprehensive analysis of future LULC changes is therefore necessary for the purposes of future land use and water resource planning and management. Recent advances in geospatial modelling techniques and the availability of remotely sensed data have become central to the monitoring and assessment of both past and future environmental changes. This study employed the cellular automata and Markov chain (CA-Markov) model combinations to simulate future LULC changes in the Gaborone dam catchment. Classified Landsat images from 1984, 1995, 2005 and 2015 were used to simulate the likely LULCs in 2015 and 2035. Model validation compared the simulated and observed LULCs of 2015 and showed a high level of agreement with Kappa variation estimates of Kno (0.82), Kloc (0.82) and Kstandard (0.76). Simulation results indicated a projected increase of 26.09%, 65.65% and 55.78% in cropland, built-up and bare land categories between 2015 and 2035, respectively. Reductions of 16.03%, 28.76% and 21.89% in areal coverage are expected for shrubland, tree savanna and water body categories, respectively. An increase in built-up and cropland areas is anticipated in order to meet the population’s demand for residential, industry and food production, which should be taken into consideration in future plans for the sustainability of the catchment. In addition, this may lead to water quality and quantity (both surface and groundwater) deterioration in the catchment. Moreover, water body reductions may contribute to water shortages and exacerbate droughts in an already water-stressed catchment. The loss of vegetal cover and an increase in built-up areas may result in increased runoff incidents, leading to flash floods. The output of the study provides useful information for land use planners and water resource managers to make better decisions in improving future land use policies and formulating catchment management strategies within the framework of sustainable land use planning and water resource management.

Impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought over the Be River Basin, Vietnam

Abstract In this paper, the responses of hydro-meteorological drought to changing climate in the Be River Basin located in Southern Vietnam are investigated. Climate change scenarios for the study area were statistically downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator tool, which incorporates climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) based on an ensemble of five general circulation models (Can-ESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was employed to simulate streamflow for the baseline time period and three consecutive future 20-year periods of 2030s (2021–2040), 2050s (2041–2060), and 2070s (2061–2080). Based on the simulation results, the Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Discharge Index were estimated to evaluate the features of hydro-meteorological droughts. The hydrological drought has a 1-month lag time from the meteorological drought and the hydro-meteorological droughts have negative correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Under the climate change impacts, the trends of drought severity will decrease in the future; while the trends of drought frequency will increase in the near future period (2030s), but decrease in the following future periods (2050 and 2070s). The findings of this study can provide useful information for the policy- and decisionmakers for a better future planning and management of water resources in the study region.

Multi-Decadal Variability and Future Changes in Precipitation over Southern Africa

The future planning and management of water resources ought to be based on climate change projections at relevant temporal and spatial scales. This work uses the new regional demarcation for Southern Africa (SA) to investigate the spatio-temporal precipitation variability and trends of centennial-scale observation and modeled data, based on datasets from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The study employs several statistical methods to rank the models according to their precipitation simulation ability. The Theil–Sen slope estimator is used to assess precipitation trends, with a Student’s t-test for the significance test. The comparison of observation and model historical data enables identification of the best-performing global climate models (GCMs), which are then employed in the projection analysis under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The GCMs adequately capture the annual precipitation variation but with a general overestimation, especially over high-elevation areas. Most of the models fail to capture precipitation over the Lesotho-Eswatini area. The three best-performing GCMs over SA are FGOALS-g3, MPI-ESM1-2-HR and NorESM2-LM. The sub-regions demonstrate that precipitation trends cannot be generalized and that localized studies can provide more accurate findings. Overall, precipitation in the wet and dry seasons shows an initial increase during the near future over western and eastern SA, followed by a reduction in precipitation during the mid- and far future under both projection scenarios. Madagascar is expected to experience a decrease in precipitation amount throughout the twenty-first century.

The application of reweighted Markov chains in water-sediment prediction in inland river basins—A case study of the Shiyang River Basin

River runoff and sediment play a crucial role in shaping river morphology, providing water resources and maintaining the water ecological balance of the watershed. In this paper, the runoff and sediment transport from 1975 to 2011 at the Jiutiao Ridge hydrological station in the Shiyang River basin are selected as the experimental period, and the runoff and sediment transport from 2011 to 2016 are selected as the validation period. Using a reweighted Markov chain, the correlation analysis of the annual runoff and the overhanging mass sediment transport in the Jiutiao Ridge hydrological station in the Shiyang River basin has been performed to predict the future changes of runoff and sediment transport in the Shiyang River. From the prediction results, it can be seen that there is limited error between the predicted value and the actual value, which can validate the application of Markov prediction method in hydrological water and sand, as well as provide a basis for future water resource management and optimization of the Shiyang River basin.

Spatial and temporal variation of precipitation characteristics in the semiarid region of Xi'an, northwest China

AbstractPrecipitation variations mostly affect the water resource planning in semi-arid regions of northwest China. The objective of this study is to quantitatively explore the spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in different time scales in Xi'an city area. The Mann–Kendall test and wavelet analysis methods were applied to analyze the precipitation variability. In terms of temporal variation of precipitation, the results indicated that the annual precipitation exhibited a significant decreasing trend during 1951–2018. Except for summer precipitation representing a slightly increasing trend, the other seasonal precipitations had a similar decreasing trend to annual precipitation throughout 1951–2018. The monthly precipitation had different change trends, showing the precipitation from June to September could account for 58.4% of the total annual precipitation. In addition, it was clear that annual precipitation had a significant periodic change, with the periods of 6, 13, 19, and 27 years. For the spatial variation of precipitation during 1961–2018, the results showed that annual and seasonal precipitation exhibited obvious spatial differences, indicating an increasing spatial trend from north to south. Thus, understanding the precipitation variation in Xi'an city can provide a theoretical foundation of future water resources management for other cities in semi-arid regions of northwest China.

Using Comprehensive Scenarios to Identify Social–Ecological Threats to Salmon in the Kenai River Watershed, Alaska

Environmental changes caused by climate change in Alaska pose a serious threat to the food, energy and water systems that support the culturally diverse communities statewide. The fishing industry, watershed managers and other stakeholders struggle with understanding and predicting the rates, magnitude and location of changes occurring in their regions primarily because of the significant range of uncertainty inherent in these changes. With the guidance of stakeholders, we demonstrate a scenario analysis methodology to elucidate the interactions among various components and uncertainties within the food, energy and water systems of the Kenai River Watershed. Alternative scenario analysis provided stakeholders with a venue and process to consider plausible futures in which rates of change in critical uncertainties were modeled to elucidate potential responses. Critical uncertainties ranged from climatic impacts on freshwater systems, to new energy development proposals, to changes in sport and personal use fisheries. Working together, stakeholders developed narratives that reflected different combinations of future uncertainty to guide potential management actions now and in the future. Five scenarios were developed by stakeholders that capture the complex interactions in the Kenai River Watershed as a social–ecological system. This process provides a way for managers and stakeholders to plan for the future in a richer way than extrapolating trends for obvious drivers of change. We present this framework as a platform for integrating climate, landscape and cultural change data into actionable decisions, crafted by stakeholders, to improve future food, energy and water resource management at the watershed scale.

A high-resolution assessment of climate change impact on water footprints of cereal production in India

Water footprint (WF), a comprehensive indicator of water resources appropriation, has evolved as an efficient tool to improve the management and sustainability of water resources. This study quantifies the blue and green WF of major cereals crops in India using high resolution soil and climatic datasets. A comprehensive modelling framework, consisting of Evapotranspiration based Irrigation Requirement (ETIR) tool, was developed for WF assessment. For assessing climate change impact on WF, multi-model ensemble climate change scenarios were generated using the hybrid-delta ensemble method for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 and future period of 2030s and 2050s. The total WF of the cereal crops are projected to change in the range of − 3.2 to 6.3% under different RCPs in future periods. Although, the national level green and blue WF is projected to change marginally, distinct trends were observed for Kharif (rainy season—June to September) and rabi (winter season—October to February) crops. The blue WF of paddy is likely to decrease by 9.6%, while for wheat it may increase by 4.4% under RCP4.5 during 2050s. The green WF of rabi crops viz. wheat and maize is likely to increase in the range of 20.0 to 24.1% and 9.9 to 16.2%, respectively. This study provides insights into the influences of climate change on future water footprints of crop production and puts forth regional strategies for future water resource management. In view of future variability in the WFs, a water footprint-based optimization for relocation of crop cultivation areas with the aim of minimising the blue water use would be possible management alternative.

Winter melt trends portend widespread declines in snow water resources.

In many mountainous regions, winter precipitation accumulates as snow that melts in spring and summer, providing water to one billion people globally. Climate warming and earlier snowmelt compromises this natural water storage. While snowpack trend analyses commonly focus on snow water equivalent (SWE), we propose that trends in accumulation season snowmelt serve as a critical indicator of hydrologic change. Here we compare long-term changes in snowmelt and SWE from snow monitoring stations in western North America and find 34% of stations exhibit increasing winter snowmelt trends (p < 0.05), a factor of three larger than the 11% showing SWE declines (p < 0.05). Snowmelt trends are highly sensitive to temperature and an underlying warming signal, while SWE trends are more sensitive to precipitation variability. Thus, continental-scale snow water resources are in steeper decline than inferred from SWE trends alone. More winter snowmelt will complicate future water resource planning and management.

Critical review of system dynamics modelling applications for water resources planning and management

This paper systematically reviewed system dynamics applications in water resource management with respect to spatial factors, research aims, modelling sub-systems and model calibration and validation methods. Decision-making context, consideration of climate change, scenarios or management measures were also examined. Results showed that the critical conceptual system dynamics model development phases are often neglected with only 40% of reviewed articles developing causal loop diagrams, and only three studies identifying system archetypes. Most reviewed publications applied scenario-based approaches (82%) to evaluate the effectiveness of management measures, whilst a minority of studies (1.8%) considered water management optimisation. Structure behaviour and behaviour-pattern tests (52%) were mostly applied to evaluate the validity of the model structure and accuracy of the behaviour's pattern, though model validation was not conducted in 12% of the studies. Finally, an integrated system dynamics modelling framework was proposed, exploring opportunities for integration of system dynamics with other modelling tools based on the strengths and limitations of system dynamics modelling; this framework can be used to enhance the simulation and optimisation for future water resource management and planning in the context of climate change and socio-economic development. • 169 system dynamics applications in water resources management reviewed. • Conceptual system dynamics model development often neglected. • Scenario-based approaches more common than optimisation-based approaches for decision support. • Only 35% of studies designed to explore the climate change impacts. • System dynamics modelling framework for complex water resource management proposed.

Climate change effects on potential evapotranspiration in Bangladesh

Potential evapotranspiration (ETo) is considered to be one of the key factors in water resource practices. Insights into the effects of climate change on ETo are crucial for irrigation design and policy formulation; however, little is understood on it in the case of Bangladesh at the national basin scale. This study intends to appraise monthly, annual, and decadal ETo datasets using the Penman-Monteith FAO-56 (FAO-56 PM) model based on daily meteorological datasets of 25 sites during 1975–2017. The Mann-Kendall (MK) technique was used to detect trend patterns. Besides, Sen’s slope estimator was employed to evaluate the trend lines extent. The results depicted that 82.67% of the monthly ETo values had descending trends and 39.67 and 16.33% were significant at α<0.05 and α<0.01 confidence levels, respectively. By contrast, 17.33% of the monthly ETo value exhibited a significant increasing trend at α<0.05. A significant increasing trend was distributed in the southeastern part of Chittagong, while the decreasing trend was at the southcentral part of Mymensingh (α<0.01). Based on annual and decadal timescales, 92% and 83% of the stations exhibited descending ETo trends in Bangladesh. The ascending trend was observed at Rangamati, Barisal, and Bhola stations, respectively. As a whole, a paradoxical situation may occur due to declining trend patterns of ETo across Bangladesh. This might be due to the decrease in the sunshine hour and wind speed from the impact of the current climate warming. Insights of this research can be used for decision-making for future water resources management in Bangladesh.

Spatiotemporal meteorological drought assessment in a humid Mediterranean region: case study of the Oued Sebaou basin (northern central Algeria)

In this research, the spatiotemporal meteorological drought pattern was assessed in the Oued Sebaou basin (northern central Algeria) based on data from 23 rain gauges from 1972 to 2010 analyzed at seasonal and annual scales using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). A geographic information system was used to determine the cartographic precipitation concentration index and modified Fourier index (MFI) as well as the drought and rainfall characteristics of the stations. The analysis revealed moderate precipitation concentrations for all stations in the basin, for which longitude explains approximately 60% of the variance. The MFI results show three main aggressiveness distributions: weak, moderate and strong, which are similar to the spatial distribution of rainfall. The results show a prolonged drought that began in the late 1980s. In addition, more than 50% of the stations were affected by moderate and severe dry events during the period from 1986 to 2001. The comparison of the SPI values among the decades indicates that more than 20% of the cases were dominated by wet conditions from 1972 to 1981 and from 2002 to 2010, with near-normal and -normal events exceeding 70%. During the 2002–2010 decade, extreme wet events occurred in 7% of the cases, while in the 1972–1981 decade, only 1.75% of the cases were of this type. These results can provide watershed managers with more information to understand past drought and improve future water resource management.