Critical review of system dynamics modelling applications for water resources planning and management

Abstract

This paper systematically reviewed system dynamics applications in water resource management with respect to spatial factors, research aims, modelling sub-systems and model calibration and validation methods. Decision-making context, consideration of climate change, scenarios or management measures were also examined. Results showed that the critical conceptual system dynamics model development phases are often neglected with only 40% of reviewed articles developing causal loop diagrams, and only three studies identifying system archetypes. Most reviewed publications applied scenario-based approaches (82%) to evaluate the effectiveness of management measures, whilst a minority of studies (1.8%) considered water management optimisation. Structure behaviour and behaviour-pattern tests (52%) were mostly applied to evaluate the validity of the model structure and accuracy of the behaviour's pattern, though model validation was not conducted in 12% of the studies. Finally, an integrated system dynamics modelling framework was proposed, exploring opportunities for integration of system dynamics with other modelling tools based on the strengths and limitations of system dynamics modelling; this framework can be used to enhance the simulation and optimisation for future water resource management and planning in the context of climate change and socio-economic development. • 169 system dynamics applications in water resources management reviewed. • Conceptual system dynamics model development often neglected. • Scenario-based approaches more common than optimisation-based approaches for decision support. • Only 35% of studies designed to explore the climate change impacts. • System dynamics modelling framework for complex water resource management proposed.