Future Shock Research Articles

3.M. Round table: Health System Strengthening in the European Union: infrastructure, digitization, health workforce

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has been a severe external shock for health systems across Europe. While immediate responses included building surge capacity and rolling out mass vaccination programmes, the pandemic has highlighted longstanding problems in all health systems. Consequently, policy responses are now focussed on health system strengthening to protect health systems and health workers during future health shocks. For European Union member states, building resilience into health systems has been supported by funding for National Recovery and Resilience Plans that have focussed on investing in infrastructure and digital architecture to future-proof health systems. However, there is also an urgent need to support the health workforce and addressing shortages of health workers will require long-term solutions. This workshop will provide a platform for sharing knowledge on health system strengthening in EU countries. The objectives of the roundtable are to i) identify cross-cutting themes and approaches to health system strengthening in the EU, and ii) establish opportunities for cross-border research and learning. In the workshop we will describe the recent developments in Czechia, Denmark, France and Italy from a comparative perspective. The workshop will consist of a roundtable with four speakers, followed by a broad discussion with audience interventions to bring in the experience of other Member States. The moderated discussion will emphasise learning from other countries in the European Union and the potential for cross-border solutions. Each panel member will make a short presentation on the latest developments in Czechia, Denmark, France, and Italy, drawing on their work writing the latest Health Systems Reviews - highlighting common themes and the role of EU Recovery Funds. Health System Reviews underpin the Health Systems in Transition (HiT) series, a core part of country monitoring undertaken by the European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies. These Reviews are routinely updated and provide a systematic description of the functioning of health systems in countries as well as reform and policy initiatives in progress or under development. As these are in-depth descriptions which detail the intricacies of health systems and an assessment of their performance, they provide the ideal basis for understanding the true complexity of acute system-wide challenges countries are currently facing. Key messages • Even health systems in high-income countries need strengthening to better cope with future external shocks and building sufficient health workforce capacity is a long-term policy goal. • Drawing on evidence, the workshop will help to identify trends in how health systems are adapting and building resilience in the face of acute system-wide challenges. Speakers/Panelists Karsten Vrangbaek University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark Zeynep Or IRDES, Paris, France Antonio Giulio de Belvis Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli-IRCCS, Rome, Italy Nathan Shuftan Berlin University of Technology, Berlin, Germany

Associations of burnout with job demands/resources during the pandemic in health workers from Southeast European countries.

Despite several studies assessing job demands and burnout in countries from the Southeast European (SEE) region, there is still a lack of data about the psychological impact of the pandemic on health workers (HWs). The present study aimed to demonstrate and compare levels of burnout dimensions in HWs from SEE countries and to reveal the burnout-job demands/resources relationships in these workers during the pandemic. During the autumn of 2020, this online multicentric cross-sectional survey studied a large group (N = 4.621) of HWs working in SEE countries. The Maslach Burnout Inventory was used for the measurement of burnout dimensions. We analyzed the job demands by using the Hospital Experience Scale. Remuneration and relationships with superiors were measured using the Questionnaire sur les Ressources et Contraintes Professionnelles (English version). A series of ANOVA comparisons of means revealed the countries in which respondents showed higher mean values of emotional exhaustion (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Moldova, Montenegro, and North Macedonia) and the countries in which respondents showed lower mean values of this burnout dimension (Israel and Romania) (Welch F = 17.98, p < 0.001). We also found differences among HWs from different countries in job demands and job resources. The testing of hierarchical regression models, which have been controlled for certain confounding factors, clearly revealed that emotional exhaustion was predicted by job demands (R2 = 0.37) and job resources (R2 = 0.16). Preventive measures for the improvement of mental health in HWs during the pandemic and beyond have to take into account the differences between countries regarding the country context and current scientific knowledge. A modified stress test should be implemented in hospitals regarding future shocks that might include new pandemics, terrorism, catastrophes, or border conflicts.

Using crises to leverage change and build resilience: Legacies and learnings from shocks

Abstract Background The economic crisis of 2008 and the Covid-19 pandemic acted as profound shocks on health systems around the world. During the financial crisis, Ireland was one of five European countries to receive a bailout from the Troika. The loss of sovereignty in governance and six austerity budgets created a huge challenge for the Irish health system and its ability to be resilient in the face of long-lasting shock. These constraints on resources and a shift in governance meant that Ireland's health infrastructure was weak going into the Covid-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the depletion of workforce numbers and low morale also presented challenges. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with seven senior stakeholders as part of the wider RESTORE research project, following ethical approval from the research Institution. Nvivo software was used to conduct thematic analysis independently by three researchers. Results The financial crisis deeply impacted the Irish health system throughout the years of austerity. Due to these legacy issues, the system was in a relatively weak position when faced with the Covid-19 pandemic. Furthermore, a lack of long-term planning was evident during the recovery period and the system was unable to reverse many of the negative impacts brought on during austerity. However, the system proved adaptive and innovative in response to Covid-19, and the pandemic proved to be a catalyst for positive change, providing opportunities for long-term reform, alongside an immediate response to the crisis. This was facilitated by increased funding and a devolution in decision-making structures. Conclusions The findings raise the question of whether health systems are entering a state of permacrisis and if so what can be done to promote resilience and prepare for future shocks. Furthermore, it asks whether health systems should put resources into acute shocks or everyday crises and explores the relationship between these two foci and resilience.

1.N. Workshop: Improving the wellbeing of the health workforce in Europe: Issues and lessons from Ireland

Abstract Health systems have been subject to a series of crises over the last fifteen years from economic austerity to the COVID-19 pandemic and now the cost of living crisis. At the same time many high-income countries have bolstered their own deficient supply of health workers by importing skilled health professionals from other countries. The health workforce has borne the brunt of each of these shocks and it is no surprise that there is demotivation, burnout and high attrition across staff cadres across Europe. Not enough is known about the root causes of these phenomena and therefore what can be done to effectively enhance workforce wellbeing and engagement and also assist health systems to deal effectively with the legacy of pent up demand from the pandemic which is threatening to overwhelm services. This session seeks to identify and evaluate the different factors that have led to disengagement of staff and assess strategies to improve staff wellbeing, retention and health system recovery, based on quantitative and qualitative research. Three case studies from Ireland distinguish different elements of the problem: 1) an investigation of the dimensions of disengagement and their underlying causes after austerity across staff cadres with particular focus on bullying and discrimination 2) an evaluation of turnover amongst nurses post COVID and the factors which are linked to this, and 3) an examination of racial attitudes and discrimination towards non-Irish health professionals in Irish hospitals. Each study highlights particular factors which have caused disengagement and evaluates their consequences and causes. Together they paint a powerful picture of a health system and its workforce struggling to cope with crisis after crisis, mismanagement and ambitious change programmes. A fourth presentation will compare and contrast this picture with analysis from other high-income countries and examine optimal investment strategies to solve the heath workforce problems. This high-level analysis places the Irish case studies in perspective and allows a more thorough evaluation of key factors and strategies to turn round the situation across Europe. Each presenter will be given a strict deadline of 10 minutes each by the chair and then the audience will be invited to debate the problems identified and strategies proposed to discuss: (i) the appropriate course of action for health systems in Europe at this time, (ii) the conditions under which strategies will achieve the desired results for the health workforce and (iii) how and whether a coordinated approach across Europe would be more effective. Key messages • This session will improve understanding of the causes of burnout, disengagement and high turnover amongst the health workforce in order to address these problems. • Strategies for investing in the education, protection and wellbeing of the European health workforce will be evaluated to assist with our readiness for future shocks.

Strengthening health system resilience at the European level

Abstract The resilience testing project builds on the work carried out by the ‘Expert Panel on effective ways of investing in health’ in its ‘opinion on the organisation of resilient health and social care following the COVID-19 pandemic’, adopted on 25 November 2020 as well as the December 2020 report by the EU Expert Group on Health Systems Performance Assessment (HSPA) titled ‘Assessing the resilience of health systems in Europe: an overview of the theory, current practice and strategies for improvement’. Resilience testing may contribute to the European Semester, which addresses health system effectiveness, accessibility and resilience. The encompassing resilience assessment framework (‘the testing framework’) will serve to detect critical health system weaknesses against specific shocks as well as long-term structural challenges. This will help to develop recommendations for remedial action. The heath system resilience testing methodology will support the implementation of the Regulation on serious cross-border threats to health which envisages stress tests and simulation exercises to help the development of health system functions and preparation of prevention, preparedness and response plans. It could also support the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) in their assessment activities of the prevention, preparedness and response plans. By establishing a resilience testing methodology, Member States will be able to regularly and independently review their preparedness for health crisis and check their healthcare systems’ resilience against specific high-pressure scenarios and long-term structural challenges. This action will generate insight and evidence through resilience tests and will reinforce the ability of Member States and regions to become more resilient to future shocks.

Stakeholder perspectives on cross-border climate risks in the Brazil-Europe soy supply chain

Climate change impacts in one country can lead to impacts in distant locations, for example, via internationally traded crops. Previous work has highlighted a need to include cross-border climate change impacts in climate risk assessments, to describe the exposure and transmission of cross-border climate risk across actors, and understand options for managing this risk. In a case study of the Brazil-Europe soy supply chain, this paper aims to explore how stakeholders perceive past and future shocks, how climate change impacts affect stakeholders differently, and how they might respond. Soy is a key internationally traded commodity and Europe relies on imports for the majority of its soy consumption, used widely in livestock feed. Via 96 semi-structured expert interviews, we found different stakeholder groups are vulnerable to different types of weather shocks, experience different price and supply consequences, and have different capacities to respond. While some responses can reduce risk of impacts across the supply chain (e.g. new soy cultivars, improving transport infrastructure), we also identified examples where responses exacerbate risk for other stakeholders (e.g. export bans, changing demand). A holistic cross-border approach to analysing risk in the soy supply chain can help avoid maladaptation and offer opportunities for more collaborative adaptation.

Dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic in Slovenia: simulations with a macroeconometric model

In this paper we analyse the effectiveness of fiscal policies with respect to macroeconomic stabilisation during the COVID-19 pandemic in the small open economy of Slovenia. Using SLOPOL11, an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we simulate the development of the its economy during the 2020s under alternative assumptions about future pandemic-related shocks. We also determine optimal fiscal policies to combat the effects of the pandemic and to stabilise the economy under two scenarios for the future course of developments under COVID-19. Our simulations show that those public spending measures that entail both demand- and supply-side effects are more effective at stimulating real GDP and increasing employment than pure demand-side measures. Successful stabilisation policies should thus contain a supply-side component in addition to a demand-side component.

Measuring household resilience to food insecurity among Iranian teachers in disasters and crises

BackgroundFood security is susceptible to disasters and crises. Iran has frequently encountered natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and droughts, with a significant portion of its budget allocated to these events. While humanitarian aid and support are beneficial in critical situations, they are temporary and do not reduce vulnerability to future crises. Thus, resilience to food insecurity is a multidimensional concept that enhances the capacity to withstand future shocks and stressors. This study aimed to identify the primary dimensions of household resilience to food insecurity among teachers and characterize them across five zones in Tehran.MethodWe conducted a cross-sectional survey of 400 teacher households in Tehran using the Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ), Dietary Diversity Score (DDS), Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS), and a resilience questionnaire. We analyzed data by using factor analysis in SPSS 16.0 according to the RIMA-I method proposed by FAO.ResultsThe results revealed that only 45% of households across the five zones of Tehran were resilient at various levels. In Zone 1, 65% of households demonstrated resilience. The dietary diversity score was significantly higher in highly resilient households compared to vulnerable ones. Factor analysis indicated that assets were a crucial dimension of household resilience to food insecurity. A regression analysis was conducted to identify the impact of each latent variable on household resilience, revealing that dimensions such as income and food access, adaptive capacity, assets, stability, and access to essential services accounted for 56% of the resilience index.ConclusionAdditional indicators are required for evaluating and enhancing resilience in food insecurity in urban areas. Consequently, policies and interventions are necessary to improve resilience to food insecurity in vulnerable households.

ENSURING TEACHING AND LEARNING AMIDST THE ECONOMIC CRISIS: STRATEGIES EMPLOYED BY SCHOOL PRINCIPALS IN SRI LANKA

The economic crisis in Sri Lanka has significantly impacted the country's education system, with schools facing challenges in maintaining regular operations and providing quality education to students. This study examined the strategies employed by school principals to ensure teaching and learning amid the crisis. Twelve school principals were interviewed, representing 7 Sinhala medium and 5 Tamil medium schools. The findings highlighted the following challenges schools face: low attendance of students and teachers, learning loss, disruption of remote learning activities, malnutrition among students and psychological issues among students, teachers, and parents. Despite these challenges, the study found that school principals worked hard to ensure that teaching and learning continued during the economic crisis. They had implemented several strategies to address their challenges, including flexible attendance policies, temporary accommodation for teachers who travel far from school, and sharing meals with poor students. The study concludes that school principals have played a critical role in ensuring that teaching and learning continued during the economic crisis in Sri Lanka. Their strategies have helped mitigate the crisis's impact on students and teachers, but more support is needed from the government. The study recommends that the government should consider to provide the following support to schools: increasing public transport at low cost for the students and teachers for regular attendance; resuming Nutrition support for students; increasing salaries for teachers; Strengthening remote learning initiatives by reducing the price of digital devices and expanding internet access; providing psychological support for students and teachers; and prioritization of timely; and Long-term planning to build resilience in the education system. By implementing these recommendations, the government can help ensure that the education system in Sri Lanka can withstand future economic shocks.

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic: Perceived risks, management strategies and emerging opportunities for small and medium agri-food enterprises in a developing country

The Covid-19 pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to small- and medium-sized agrifood enterprises (SMAEs) in developing countries. However, research investigating what risks Covid-19 posed to these firms, how they responded, and what business opportunities emerged to SMAEs from the pandemic remains scanty. Drawing on a sample of 166 specialist SMAEs in Egypt, this study addressed these entwined questions by using multiple indicators and multiple causes (MIMIC) and mediation analysis. Our results point out that the Covid-19 pandemic exposed Egyptian SMAEs to complex and multidimensional risks, and caused profound effects on both upstream and downstream stages of their supply chains. In general, Egyptian SMAEs adopted a ‘wait-and-see’ approach to cope with such Covid-19 risks and impacts, which was attributed to their lack of sufficient financial resources to develop risk management strategies and formalize structures to deal with unexpected events. Interestingly, the results showed that several business opportunities emerged from pandemic; but SMAEs' resource disadvantages constrained their capacity to seize and exploit these opportunities. Moreover, we found that mitigation strategies adopted by SMAEs present a mediating factor between perceived Covid-19 risks and perceived business opportunities. Overall, our findings call for a paradigm shift in relation to enterprise risk management in developing countries' SMAEs toward more holistic frameworks to enhance their preparedness to future shocks, make mature operational and strategic management decisions, and exploit strategic opportunities.

Employment and Income Pattern of Farm Households in Northeast India: Has COVID-19 Lockdown Hindered?

The COVID-19 pandemic hinders the livelihood of farm households in India. This study was conducted to measure the change in the employment and income patterns of farm households in the Imphal West district of Manipur state during the imposition of a nationwide lockdown in relation to the COVID-19 outbreak. A multistage sampling technique was used to select the districts, blocks, and villages. A simple random sampling technique without a replacement strategy was used to identify 109 farm households from two blocks in the Imphal West district of Manipur. Simple tabular analysis and statistical tests were used to examine the changes in the employment and income patterns of farm households in the Imphal West district. The study revealed that the majority of the sampled farm households (86.14%) got their employment in off-farm, non-farm, or both activities along with on-farm activities, and the rest of them (13.76%) specialized only in on-farm activities in the study area. The average number of human days employed on farms by sample households has significantly reduced from 121 to 110 human days. During the COVID-19 period, the average off-farm and non-farm employment decreased from 51 to 35 human days and from 170 to 107 human days, respectively. During COVID-19 lockdown, average yearly farm income reduced by 8.22 per cent. Similarly, the average off-farm and non-farm average income reduced by 21.67 per cent and 20.23 per cent, respectively and there was no employment was generated under Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNERGA) during COVID-19 lockdown period. The employment from private jobs and businesses was primarily disrupted during lockdown. Hence, this study proposes that efforts should be made to encourage farm households to embrace diversified employment options by giving education on several different enterprises and connecting them with specific groups such as SHG, Join Liability Group, and Farmers' Club that will assist them in coping with future economic shocks.

Amazon is coming to town: Sequential information revelation in the housing market

AbstractThis study demonstrates that the housing market can incorporate information quickly instead of slowly over time, using Amazon's gradual revelation of its new headquarters locations in Virginia and New York. Spatial difference‐in‐differences analysis shows that housing prices near the Virginia headquarters exhibit premia months before the decision, while price premia for New York reach before the decision but disappear upon cancellation. The absence of significant effects on transaction volume, construction, or price premia for other finalist cities rules out the possibility of speculation. Overall, this study provides a counterpoint to the commonly held belief that the real estate market is always slow to respond to information about future demand shocks.

Farmers response to climate variability and change in rainfed farming systems: Insight from lived experiences of farmers

Climate adaptation, while urgent, is complicated by a slew of unknowns and uncertainties through insufficient scholarship. This study addresses these slews of unknowns surrounding local adaptation to climate change and associated determinants among rainfed smallholder farmers in rural Ghana. We utilized a mixed-method approach to collect primary data from 410 households, 15 key informants and 10 focus group participants coupled with meteorological data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency, Accra (GMet). Results from meteorological analysis from 1989 to 2020 and farmers' perceptions showed a consistent pattern exemplifying a temperature rise, and a decline in rainfall pattern in the study area over the period. Rainfed smallholder farmers employed multiple coping strategies including—cognitive restructuring, resource seeking, experiential avoidance, expressive coping, capital disinvestment and relying on social networks to deal with current and future climate shocks. Also, key adaptation interventions implemented by rainfed smallholder farmers based on lived experiences include farm and crop management, soil and water conservation, conservation agricultural practices, smart-farming practices and cropping decisions, livelihood diversification and indigenous knowledge application. Market access, access to climate information/services, access to extension services, use of indigenous knowledge and practice, risk perception, and government support, livestock ownership, asset ownership, credit access, and farm insurance significantly increase rainfed smallholder farmers' decision to cope/adapt to climate variability in rural Ghana. However, improved soil fertility and farm labour significantly influenced rainfed smallholder farmers' adaptation response but not coping. The findings have implications for developing effective adaptation interventions to build resilient agricultural systems and sustainable livelihood in rainfed farming areas.

Digital Learning Response in the Midst of the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Case of Mauritius

This article investigates learners’ perception of their ability to adapt to online learning and the challenges they encountered as well as the opportunities they found in this new e-learning environment, in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic. A comprehensive survey was undertaken using an online questionnaire circulated among male and female students across various faculties at five universities and business schools in Mauritius. The results indicate that Covid-19 was a major disruption in higher education studies. Despite the online learning approach, students enrolled in STEM degrees were more impacted compared to those in non-STEM degrees. Around one-third of the students asserted that online learning was a major challenge, more so for those in the lowest-income group who lacked the necessary digital tools to adapt to this new learning environment. A non-conducive home environment further had a negative bearing on students’ concentration and ability to cope with their studies. We noted that postgraduate students adapt to digital learning better compared to undergraduates. There is thus a need to rethink, revamp and redesign the education system to be prepared for future shocks and build resilience through the application of best practices in the digitalisation of the education system.

Performative Resilience: Artistic Activism in Urban Spaces of Athens

Multiple constraints and passivity in urban space on a global scale, combined with the transformation of economic crises into spatial crises, have often led to a rise in civic participation as a form of radical response to contested social frameworks. In a number of cases, as these frameworks faced collapse, citizens have been led to bottom-up solutions which test their capacity to shape socio-spatial programs and disrupt the formality of space freeing it from constraints. Resilient cities – defined as cities that have the ability to absorb, recover and prepare for future shocks – are often at the epicenter of such multi-layered transformations. This paper explores some of the practices deployed by cultural practitioners (performers, visual artists, activists, architects etc.) in Athens, Greece as a response to conditions of austerity and political turmoil, as well as methods which could be deployed towards the re-appropriation of public space within oppressive socioeconomic and political contexts through empirical research. For the purpose of this analysis, ‘performance’ refers to a number of temporal kinesthetic actions of resilience that attempt to critique and interrogate sociopolitical narratives in public space. Through daily performative actions, groups of citizens attempt to rethink public space in order to confront newly urgent social needs and normalised behaviors. Cultural practitioners and urban activists, initiate performative actions as an attempt to demonstrate their resilience and capacity to adapt to austerity and crisis, pushing the boundaries of what public space can accommodate, examining complex social transformations in spatial terms.

Tackling corruption in the distribution of Covid-19 palliatives and public health facilities in Nigeria: legal insights and strategic blueprint for future emergencies

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the corruption prevalent in the distribution of COVID-19 palliatives during the lockdown and movement restrictions in the country. This study seeks to analyse the current state of corruption in the distribution of COVID-19 palliatives and public health facilities in Nigeria while also providing a legal insight and strategic blueprint to combat corruption. To this end, this study will address the current legal framework for combating corruption and build upon this to formulate a working strategy for tackling corruption in the future.Design/methodology/approachUsing a doctrinal legal research methodology, this study draws upon existing literature, tertiary data sources and information from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. The collected data is analysed and compared with current literature to identify key findings. Rent-seeking and utilitarian theories of the law were examined to guide this study. This study offers useful insights into combating corruption. The use of this method is justified, as it enhances the credibility of the findings on the importance of strategies for future emergencies. This legal research approach is consistent with the law and can be easily verified. The empirical aspect of this study involved a survey of multidimensional health-care and economic data set of 36 states in Nigeria plus the Federal Capital Territory on COVID-19 in Nigeria. A survey linearised regression model was estimated to determine the influence of government revenue and public health-care facilities in the control of the virus spread in Nigeria.FindingsThis study reveals the need for emphasis on the imperative of combating corruption in the distribution of COVID-19 palliatives and establishing economic resilience through transparent and accountable practices, supported by legal frameworks.Research limitations/implicationsRent-seeking and utilitarian theories of law are evaluated because of their impacts on combating corruption. The limitation of this study is the intricacy of gathering data on COVID-19 palliatives corruption in Nigeria because of secrecy and the absence of reliable data on the subject.Practical implicationsEstimating the exact number of stolen palliatives and their fiscal impact on Nigeria's economy proves to be a formidable task because of the covert nature of corruption. This study equips policymakers in Nigeria with a better understanding of the legal challenges posed by corruption in the health care sector and provides an effective strategy to combat it.Social implicationsThe lack of reliable data on the extent of palliative theft hinders the ability of lawmakers to enact effective legislation and strategies for combating corruption in the distribution of COVID-19 palliatives and addressing future emergencies in Nigeria. The policy implications of this study can assist policymakers in Nigeria and other countries in formulating measures to combat corruption in the distribution of COVID-19 palliatives and other future emergencies. Furthermore, it recommends the overhaul of anti-corruption laws and mechanisms in Nigeria to ensure effective measures against corruption.Originality/valueIn conclusion, this study contributes to knowledge by proposing a legal model centred on people's participation to enhance transparency and accountability in future palliative distribution processes. This study recommends legal strategies that can effectively address corruption in future emergencies or shocks. This study proposes a strategic blueprint to tackle corruption in the future. This blueprint includes an analysis of existing laws and regulations, as well as potential policy changes and legislative reform. This study also includes recommendations for improved enforcement and oversight mechanisms and for improved public awareness and education. As part of this, this study considers the potential for public–private partnerships to increase transparency and accountability in public health and health-care services.

Resist, Recover, Renew: Fiscal Resilience as a Strategic Response to Economic Uncertainty

The cyclicality of economic recessions worsens fiscal stability and increases vulnerability to future shocks. This article argues that the concept of resilience provides an important frame for understanding the dynamic character of public financial management. The study introduces a theoretical framework that decomposes fiscal resilience into precrisis fiscal resistance, postcrisis fiscal recovery, and long-term fiscal renewal. It empirically tests the model employing a Cox proportional hazard model and over three decades of data (1991–2018) covering two previous recessions—the dotcom recession and the Great Recession. The findings indicate that although strategic decisions associated with revenue diversification and countercyclical capacity facilitate fiscal resilience, specific features of local government finances such as the revenue structure and service structure are critical to fiscal recovery and renewal. In addition, the underlying characteristics of each recession affect whether institutional and economic conditions facilitate fiscal resilience. The article discusses implications for financial management and emphasizes embedding resiliency-based frameworks in local government strategic planning.

Effect of Global Oil Price Volatility and Exchange Rate Policy on Foreign Exchange Reserves in Iraq

Purpose: This paper offers simulations and forecasts of the ideal currency reserve measure in light of future shocks to the Iraqi economy due to the downturn in the international price of oil and the global economic shutdown triggered by the Corona pandemic.&#x0D; &#x0D; Theoretical framework: The Iraqi foreign exchange reserves have entered a cycle of sustained and accelerated degradation in recent years and hit alarming amounts in 2020, affecting Iraq's financial stability compared to other foreign currency reserves. According to figures from the Iraqi Parliament's Financial Commission, the Iraqi fund in the Central Bank of Iraq decreased, following removing the government's second loan by the end of 2020, to $35 billion. The Fitch Ratings Agency, on the other hand, has found that Iraq's plan to slash public sector wages and pension costs will delay the reduction of currency reserves as part of the attempt to lower financial imbalances and relieve financial pressures. However, it will be difficult to enforce and risk exacerbating social disorders. According to Fitch, by the end of August (15% of projected GDP for 2020), cash funding from the Central Bank of Iraq grew to 28.5 billion Iraqi dinars from 14.1 billion Iraqi dinars at the end of May.&#x0D; &#x0D; Design/methodology/approach: The study uses an analytical approach to show the fluctuations in oil prices and their impact on the fluctuation of oil revenues and the currency-selling window that the Central Bank of Iraq applies to its foreign reserves.&#x0D; &#x0D; Findings: The systemic problem of worldwide petroleum price drops that provide longer-term estimates to estimate the decrease in petroleum prices on global oil markets explains the quick fall in Iraqi exchange reserve magnitude. Iraq's foreign reserves, mostly from oil exports, fulfill international standards. Iraq's exchange rate policy depends on the Central Bank's direct foreign currency sales. This approach reduces foreign money diversion from Iraq, preventing the central bank from maintaining exchange rate stability.&#x0D; &#x0D; Research, Practical &amp; Social implications: The impact of foreign reserves on national financial stability is becoming more obvious as their function evolves from supplying fundamental transaction needs to fulfilling financial security criteria.&#x0D; &#x0D; Originality/value: The Iraqi dinar's value must be protected at all costs, hence the Central Bank of Iraq's foreign reserves are crucial. These reserves are affected by oil revenues, the main financier for it, and the window for selling the currency, which is the outlet for leakage from it.

Regional economic resistance and divergence in Ireland, 2011–22

Abstract This paper examines the resistance of Irish regions to potential future economic shock, focusing specifically on employment change in firms in receipt of assistance from the Irish government’s enterprise development agencies. The paper classifies both regions and sectors in terms of their employment performance during the course of the 2011–22 period and assesses the roles of sectoral composition and firm nationality in shaping regional performance. While nationality mix is significant, sectoral composition is seen as having a more important impact on regional employment performance. It then uses the same approach to predict the performance of regions in the context of potential future shocks post 2022. The paper suggests that the Border region is the least resistant to potential future shock. Other regions with relatively low resistance include the Mid East and the Midlands. The paper subsequently considers the implications of the findings for both regional economic divergence trends and the policy aim of balanced regional development in Ireland.

The Dynamic Simulation Analysis of the Impact of Urbanization and Globalization on Environmental Quality

This study aims to analyze the effect of urban population and economic globalization on air quality in Turkey for the period 1970–2017, including GDP and electricity consumption as control variables. This paper is the first attempt to apply the dynamic autoregressive-distributed lag (DARDL) approach to explore the association between carbon emissions, urbanization, economic globalization, GDP, and electricity consumption in Turkey. The analysis results suggested the existence of a cointegration relationship between all series in the long run. DARDL results revealed that while urbanization has a statistically significant effect on carbon emissions in the short or long run, economic globalization has a positive impact in the long run. That is, economic globalization increases carbon emissions by about 0.15 percent. Thus, it can be said that globalization is more critical than urbanization in terms of environmental costs. In addition, it was determined that GDP and electricity consumption increase carbon emissions in both the long and short run. Also, the response of CO2 emissions to all shocks in the explanatories was determined. All future shocks of electricity consumption lead to no change in CO2 emissions. The negative shocks of both urbanization and globalization decrease CO2 emissions in the short run, but the response of CO2 is stable in the long run. The effects of a shock in GDP are exactly the opposite.