Future Shock Research Articles

Strengthening food supply resilience: Lean and Lean Six Sigma strategies for disruptions

ABSTRACT Recognizing that the food industry faces a myriad of challenges, ranging from natural disasters to geopolitical conflicts and pandemics, this study explores how Lean, and Lean Six Sigma (L&LSS) can fortify supply chains against such diverse disruptions. While the COVID-19 pandemic serves as a contextual backdrop, our focus is on the broader application of L&LSS methodologies in navigating disruptive events. This study analyzes responses from 120 food firms, utilising structural equation modelling to correlate L&LSS practices with adaptive performance during crises. Our findings indicate that L&LSS not only equip firms to maintain operational continuity amidst disruptions but also positions them to anticipate and adapt to future systemic shocks. By elucidating the positive correlation between L&LSS engagement and crisis resilience, this research contributes a strategic framework to the literature, advocating for a pre-emptive embrace of L&LSS practices as essential to navigating the unpredictable nature of global crises.

The reaction of the social security systems of the European Union and the united states of America to financial crises: proposals for using the experience in Russia

In the context of accelerated transformation of the domestic economy, attempts at economic and socio-political isolation of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as RF, Russia), the question of rethinking the role of social protection in the development of the RF arises. The purpose of the work is to develop recommendations for increasing the adaptability of the domestic social protection system to future possible shocks, with consideration to modern practices used in developed economies. The object of the study is social protection systems. The subject is measures of adaption of these systems to consequences of financial crises. When conducting the study, the following methods have been used: analysis, induction, measurement, comparison, computational and constructive, statistical and economic. The main results of the study include identification of the basic channels for the transition of a financial crisis into a social one, and assessment of the fiscal impulses of the European Union countries, United States of America, and Russia in order to mitigate the negative shocks of financial crises. The practical significance of the work is due to the possibility of using the results in the activities of government bodies as part of improving the domestic social protection system. The similar nature of consequences of global financial crises has allowed us to draw a number of conclusions. Firstly, job retention schemes and social support measures for the unemployed population make it possible to create an effective system of income support for workers, especially for vulnerable groups. Secondly, increasing the targeting of social support measures will lead to the performance growth of social protection system, allowing for a more rational distribution of limited budget resources. Finally, this social system can effectively reach the target segment of beneficiaries only if means-testing information systems are of high quality.

Legacy of Racism and Firearm Violence During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States.

Objectives. To examine whether, through interactions with preexisting socioeconomic status vulnerabilities, the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated exposure to firearm violence among communities with a legacy of redlining (i.e., grading the creditworthiness of neighborhoods based on their sociodemographic composition). Methods. We used an exogenous population threshold whereby the Home Owners Loan Corporation graded neighborhoods only in US cities with populations of more than 40 000 and used a difference-in-difference strategy to examine the evolution of fatal firearm incidents between 2017 and October 2022. Results. After the COVID-19 pandemic began, fatal firearm violence increased significantly in low-graded neighborhoods that the Home Owners Loan Corporation had deemed risky for mortgage lending. The effect held consistently across various model specifications. Conclusions. Social and environmental constructs can interact in a complex manner to compound disadvantage and exacerbate the consequences of negative shocks for marginalized communities. Public Health Implications. Home Owners Loan Corporation policies contributed to widening racial disparities in firearm violence, highlighting the need for reinvestment in marginalized communities to keep future shocks from exacerbating vulnerability to adverse outcomes. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print November 7, 2024:e1-e9. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307891).

The Impact of Financial Crises on Financial Markets: Case Studies of Three Historical Crises

Abstract: The recurring occurrences of financial crises have profound impacts on the global economic system. Insights gained from in-depth discussions on financial crises can effectively respond to future shocks, thereby ensuring the steady development of the world economy. This paper uses comparative analysis to examine the similar and different impacts of three financial crises on financial markets: the Dutch Tulip Mania of 1637, the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis of 2008. The research findings indicate that all three financial crises caused significant volatility in financial product trading markets. At the same time, these crises provided different lessons for the development of financial markets: the 1637 Dutch Tulip Mania underscored the importance of regulating exchanges, the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis highlighted the importance of foreign exchange reserves, and the 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis emphasized the necessity of controlling the banking industry, especially lending.

Factors Influencing Public Donation Intention during Major Public Health Emergencies and Their Interactions: Evidence from China.

The COVID-19 pandemic is a major public health emergency that has caused significant global devastation. However, it has also fostered unprecedented worldwide solidarity. During this crisis, we have witnessed large-scale donations and assistance both domestically and internationally. In the face of such extensive public engagement, understanding the driving factors behind public donations is crucial in responding to future global shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic. This study proposes an analytical framework and examines the factors influencing public donation intention during major public health emergencies and their interactions. Based on the online and telephone survey data of 11,682 responses collected in China during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, this study employs multiple logistic regression and moderation effect models to analyze these influencing factors and their interactions on public donation intention. The findings reveal a remarkably high level of public engagement, with 79% of respondents expressing donation intention. Further analysis indicates that the hardship level caused by the pandemic, degree of risk perception, community material support, and evaluation of the pandemic response all have a significant and positive impact on public donation intention. Moreover, the evaluation of the pandemic response and community material support significantly and positively moderate the impact of the hardship level caused by the pandemic and degree of risk perception on public donation intention, respectively. This study provides valuable guidance for governments and organizations worldwide. It is helpful for enriching crisis management theory and improving crisis response mechanisms.

Social care research: international cooperation is vital to prepare for future health shocks

Social care research: international cooperation is vital to prepare for future health shocks

Innovation bundles and platforms – a qualitative analysis of health system responses to the COVID-19 pandemic

BackgroundHealth systems underwent substantial changes to respond to COVID-19. Learning from the successes and failures of health system COVID-19 responses may help us understand how future health service responses can be designed to be both effective and sustainable. This study aims to identify the role that innovation played in crafting health service responses during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsSemi-structured interviews were conducted online, exploring 19 health professionals’ experiences in responding to COVID-19 in a large State health system in Australia. The data were collected from April to September 2022 and analysed utilising constant comparative analysis. The degree of innovation in health service responses was assessed by comparing them to pre-pandemic services using 5 categories adopted from the IMPISCO (Investigators, Methods, Population, Intervention, Setting, Comparators and Outcomes) framework, which classifies interventional fidelity as: 1/ Identical: No differences are found between health services; 2/ Substitution with alternatives that perform the same function, 3/ In-class replacement with elements that delivers roughly the same functionality, 4/ Augmentation with new functions, 5/ Creation of new elements. Services were decomposed into bundles and fidelity labels were assigned to individual bundle elements.ResultsNew services were typically created by reconfiguring existing ones rather than being created de novo. The presence of pre-existing infrastructure (foundational technologies) was seen as critical in mounting fast health service responses. Absence of infrastructure was associated with delays and impaired system responses.ConclusionsThe need to reconfigure rapidly and use infrastructure to support this suggests we reconceive health services as a platform (a general-purpose service upon which other elements can be added for specific functions), where a common core service (such as a primary care practice) can be extended by adding specialised functions using mediators which facilitate the connection (such as virtual service capabilities). Innovation can be costly and time consuming in crises, and during the COVID-19 pandemic, innovations were typically patched together from pre-existing services. The notion of platforms seems a promising way to prepare the health system for future shocks.

Searching for the drivers of organizational resilience in times of crisis: An example from the Covid-19 pandemic

The theme of organizational resilience has been acquiring relevance for some time to date due to the health crises and geopolitical tensions that have marked the last years. Understanding which drivers helped ensure business continuity during such crises can subsequently help managers prepare for future challenges or shocks. Answering the call for an aggregate analysis of the drivers of organizational resili-ence, this study identifies three main categories: the first one focuses on the hu-man characteristics of the business community; the second focuses on the role played by management control systems, and the third one points to the external support of consultants and stakeholders. This framework is applied to a case study of a not-for-profit organization (FASI – Fondo Assistenza Sanitaria Integrativa) that operates in the healthcare assurance sector and was strongly impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. The results of this study reaffirm the multilevel essence of organizational resilience. In more detail, the policies adopted by the company to face different challenges led to the achievement of three different types of resili-ence: reactive behavior – bouncing-back to the previous equilibrium (type 1), adaptive behavior – bouncing-forward to a higher level of equilibrium (type 2), and proactive behavior – preparing for a possible future shock (type 3).

An unemployment re-insurance scheme for the eurozone? Stabilizing and redistributive effects

This paper develops a decomposition framework to study the importance of different stabilization channels of an unemployment re-insurance scheme for the euro area. Running counterfactual simulations based on household micro data for the period 2000–21 and studying the effect of different trigger variables and activation rules, the paper finds that the re-insurance would have cushioned on average 7%–14% (3%–6%) of employment income losses through interregional (intertemporal) smoothing. The simulated re-insurance scheme would have been revenue-neutral at EA-19, but not at the member-state level. Average annual inpayments and payouts would have been below 0.1 per cent of GDP. A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that the re-insurance could offset up to 18% of future output shocks. These results suggest that a re-insurance would significantly strengthen public risk sharing in the euro area.

Labor markets during COVID-19: gaps and challenges in Latin America.

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Latin American labor markets continue to be quantified, to identify the social and economic impacts that this pandemic had, and to design more efficient public policies that would protect the most vulnerable groups. For this reason, the research question was as follows: what were the changes in the labor formality rates before and two years after the main contingency measures of the COVID-19 pandemic were implemented? Using data from Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay, the formality rate (τ) was analyzed, which was calculated using a weighted average between the formal employment rates of the number (i) of economic sectors (p) in a specific period (t). The results suggest that the weighted labor formality rate increased in the countries of the region. These changes in formality could be the result of greater capital accumulation, the integration of productive processes, the integration of commercialization processes, and differentiated fiscal stimuli (i.e., the intrasectoral aspect), but it was not due to the displacement of workers from highly informal economic sectors to more formalized sectors (i.e., the intersectoral component). The findings emphasized the precarious situation of women in the region, regardless of the country, particularly in Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and Argentina. These findings suggest the need to design public policies that reverse the current situation of the labor market and prevent future economic shocks, with special emphasis on the informal sector and women.

Determinants of Income Smoothing Practices in Light of the Recent Pandemic: Evidence from Banks in MEA Region

This study examined the effects of the recent COVID-19 pandemic on income smoothing practices in the banking sector of Middle Eastern and African (MEA) countries. It examined how global geopolitical risk (GPR) and the bank's internal indicators influenced these practices. Focusing on 175 banks across the MEA region with data spanning from 2018 to 2021. This study employed several econometric approaches, i.e., GMM, 2SLS, MMQR and QRPD, to provide robust estimations. The study's scientific novelty is in its thorough analysis of how COVID-19 stringency and global geopolitical uncertainties uniquely impact income smoothing practices, utilising advanced econometric techniques to capture nuances across different regions. The findings revealed that income smoothness has increased in response to stringent COVID-19 measures such as lockdowns and movement controls, with consistent results across various methods. Additionally, the higher global GPR is associated with increased income smoothness. The study also identified varying impacts of bank-specific factors: bank size, and capital adequacy ratio (CAR), generally show positive effects, while return on assets (ROA), cost-to-income ratio (CI), leverage (LEV), and liquidity (LIQ) often have negative impacts, with some variables displaying minimal significance in different quantiles. Practically, the study offers valuable insights for policymakers and banking sector professionals by highlighting how heightened COVID-19 stringency and geopolitical risks influence income smoothness. This can aid in the development of strategies to manage financial stability and adapt to future economic shocks.

Improving possible serious bacterial infection (PSBI) management in young infants when referral is not feasible: lessons from embedded implementation research in Ethiopia and Kenya

BackgroundSepsis is a leading cause of neonatal mortality, despite the availability of effective treatment of possible serious bacterial illness (PSBI), including when referral to a hospital is not feasible. Gaps in access and delivery worsened during COVID-19. We conducted embedded implementation research in Ethiopia and Kenya aimed at mitigating the impact of COVID-19 and addressing various implementation challenges to improve PSBI management.MethodsThe implementation research projects were implemented at the subnational level in Ethiopia and Kenya between November 2020-June 2022 (Ethiopia) and December 2020-August 2022 (Kenya). Guided by the implementation research frameworks, both projects conducted mixed formative quantitative and exploratory research from April to May 2021, followed by summative evaluations conducted between June and July 2022. Frameworks encompassed Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR), Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance (RE-AIM), as well as health systems framework that incorporates cascades of care and World Health Organization Health Systems Building Blocks. Results were synthesized across the projects through document review and sharing cross-project measures and strategies through a project community of practice.ResultsDespite differences in settings across the projects, cross-cutting facilitators included community health worker program and support, and existence of guidelines for PSBI management at primary care levels. Barriers included community attitudes towards seeking care for sick newborns, COVID-19 risks and fear, and lack of health care worker competence. Country-specific contextual barriers included supply chain issues, civil conflict (Ethiopia), and labor strikes (Kenya). Strategies chosen to mitigate barriers and support implementation and sustainability in both settings included leveraging community health workers to address resistance to care-seeking, health workers’ training, COVID-19 infection prevention measures, stakeholder engagement, and advocacy to integrate PSBI management into existing programs, policies, and training. Other strategies addressing emerging project-specific barriers, included improving follow-up through a community health desk and PSBI mobile app (Kenya) and supply chain strengthening (Ethiopia). Both projects improved PSBI management coverage, increased adoption and uptake, and informed national policy changes supporting potential for sustainability.ConclusionsPragmatic embedded implementation research effectively supports the identification of barriers and mapping to strategies designed to increase effective coverage of PSBI management when referral is not feasible during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite differences in context, cross-cutting strategies identified could inform broader scale-up in the region, including during future health system shocks.

COVID-19 and Uncertainty Effects on Tunisian Stock Market Volatility: Insights from GJR-GARCH, Wavelet Coherence, and ARDL

This study rigorously investigates the impact of COVID-19 on Tunisian stock market volatility. The investigation spans from January 2020 to December 2022, employing a GJR-GARCH model, bias-corrected wavelet analysis, and an ARDL approach. Specific variables related to health measures and government interventions are incorporated. The findings highlight that confirmed and death cases contribute significantly to the escalation in TUNINDEX volatility when using both the conditional variance and the realized volatility. Interestingly, aggregate indices related to government interventions exhibit substantial impacts on the realized volatility, indicating a relative resilience of the Tunisian stock market amidst the challenges posed by COVID-19. However, the application of the bias-corrected wavelet analysis yields more subtle outcomes in terms of the correlations of both measures of volatility to the same metrics. Our econometric implications bear on the application of such a technique, as well as on the use of the realized volatility as an accurate measure of the “true” value of volatility. Nevertheless, the measures and actions undertaken by the authorities do not exclude fear and insecurity from investors due to another virus or any other crisis. The positive and long-term impact on the volatility of US equity market uncertainty, VIX, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and the infectious disease EMV tracker (IDEMV) is obvious through the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). A potential vulnerability of the Tunisian stock market to future shocks is not excluded. Government and stock market authorities should grapple with economic and financial fallout and always instill investor confidence. Importantly, our results put mechanisms such as overreaction to public news and (in)efficient use of information under test. Questioning the accuracy of announcements is then recommended.

Impact assessment of COVID-19 and PMO15 on labour in the plantation-wood processing sector in Lao PDR with policy recommendations

The primary objective of this research was to 1) explore the impacts of COVID-19 on availability of, and demand for, labor in the plantation-wood processing sector in Lao PDR; 2) the Government and industry response measures to COVID-19; and 3) the impacts of 2016 Prime Ministers’ Order (No. 15/PM, PMO15) aimed at addressing illegal logging and controlling log exports were also considered, as representative of a similar ‘shock’ to the sector. The research, undertaken in Vientiane Capital City, adopted a mainly qualitative methodology utilizing literature reviews and semi-structured interviews to gather data from the government, industry and workers. Micro, small and medium sized companies and their employees were surveyed. The research found that Lao wood manufacturers were affected by the shutdowns in response to COVID-19 and there were follow-on effects up and down value chains. The experiences of Laos were found to be similar to those experienced in wood producing countries globally. Supply issues and access to markets were key factors impacting the ability of factories to continue to operate and retain workers. Government protection measures were effective but challenging to implement, and access to support was difficult. Impacts on male and female differed. Awareness of, and access to, mandatory social security insurance by workers was very low. Other forms of social ‘safety-net’ were more apparent and important, including company-based programs, charity, and family/self-help. Improved dissemination of information about the need for, and benefits of, social security should occur to mitigate future shocks. The high dependence on foreign workers to fill skilled jobs in the sector remains an issue. Coupled with reforms in response to PMO15, to improve factory and product standards and ongoing export restrictions, there is a need further build Lao skills and capacity. Current efforts to up-skill Lao workers for employment in emerging wood product industries must be maintained, and improved recognition of Lao-acquired competencies is needed. Market needs analysis including the development of product dossiers is required together with the building of relevant technical expertise. Without this the Lao wood processing sector will be remain vulnerable to future shocks.

IMPACT OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ON INDONESIAN COMMODITY STOCKS: A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly impacted Indonesian commodity stocks, as revealed by a comprehensive literature review. The conflict has introduced volatility in global markets, directly affecting Indonesian stock commodity-based prices, exchange rates, and investor sentiment. While initial commodity price rises benefited Indonesian stocks, persistent volatility and market interconnectedness pose challenges. This paper employs a systematic literature review methodology, collecting, synthesizing, and analyzing numerous papers published in the last decade on a variety of topics closely related to volatility transmission issues. Based on our review of twenty-seven articles, the result of this paper's analysis underscores the importance of diversifying investments and enhancing resilience against global disruptions. The GARCH models and the Geopolitical Risk Index further emphasize Indonesian commodity stocks' susceptibility to global price fluctuations and geopolitical risks. The research concludes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has far-reaching consequences for Indonesian stock commodity-based markets, underscoring the need for risk mitigation strategies and enhanced resilience against future geopolitical shocks.

Urban resilience reduces depressive symptoms among middle-aged and elderly adults: A multidimensional analysis based on China longitudinal healthy longevity survey

With the rapid urbanization and aging population, depression has become a severe public health issue globally, affecting millions of individuals and significantly impacting their quality of life and healthcare costs. Urban resilience refers to a city's ability to absorb, recover, and prepare for future shocks, ensuring sustainable development despite challenges. This study aims to explore the impact of urban resilience on depressive symptoms among middle-aged and elderly adults. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), we analyzed five dimensions of urban resilience: economic, social, ecological, institutional, and infrastructural resilience. The results of cox proportional hazards model indicate that high levels of urban resilience significantly reduce the risk of depressive symptoms (HR = 0.875, 95% CI: 0.832–0.920, P < 0.001). Specifically, economic resilience (HR = 0.883, 95% CI: 0.846–0.921, P < 0.001), social resilience (HR = 0.916, 95% CI: 0.876–0.958, P < 0.001), ecological resilience (HR = 0.670, 95% CI: 0.516–0.869, P = 0.003), institutional resilience (HR = 0.922, 95% CI: 0.886–0.960, P < 0.001), and infrastructural resilience (HR = 0.875, 95% CI: 0.826–0.926, P < 0.001) all show significant negative correlations with depressive symptoms. Furthermore, the mitigation of depressive symptoms risk resulting from improved urban resilience disproportionately benefits vulnerable groups and those with healthy living habits. These findings provide scientific evidence for urban planning and policy formulation, contributing to the promotion of mental health and healthy aging among middle-aged and elderly populations.

Assessing livelihood dependency on forestry products during COVID-19 period

Background: The importance of forest in improving human welfare is recognized worldwide. Both natural and artificial forests provide basic needs such as fuel wood, timber, industrial wood and non-timber products. They also provide employment, income and foreign exchange hence contributing to social and economic development. Equally important are the environmental benefits of forest. But as covid 19 came people lost their job, their movement was restricted as a result an increase dependency on forest products for survival increases in developing countries. Therefore, the main aim of the study was to unearth impacts of covid 19 has on the forest products of people living around zomba plateau forest reserve. The general objective of the study is to assess livelihood dependency on forest product during covid 19 period. Method: Specifically, the study will identify and assess which forest products were frequently accessed during covid 19 and analyze the contribution of forest products on household income during the pandemic period. Both qualitative and quantitative methodologies were used to collect data. The target population for the study consisted of residents of Mtendere village. The sample size was 59. Data were collected using self- administered questionnaire and interviews. Qualitative and quantitative data was analyzed using statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) and excel package respectively. Result: The results of the study indicate that there was an increase dependency of forest products during covid 19 period and such that the contribution the contribution of forest products to household income dwindles during this period. Conclusion: The study further recommends to build the resilience of forest- dependent communities to future shocks and crises. This can be achieved through the implementation of social safety nets, or savings and credit programs. Novelty/Originality of this study: This study presents the first comprehensive analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on community dependence on forest products and finds changes in forest resource use patterns during the pandemic. It provides new insights into the resilience of forest-dependent communities in the face of global crises. It offers practical recommendations for building community resilience through social safety nets and credit savings programs.

The economic butterfly effect of agriculture supply chains: A comparative assessment of the United States of America and Nigeria

This study will seek to explore the disruptions and enhancements that can occur in the agricultural supply chains of the United States of America and Nigeria, which can cause the butterfly effect and subsequently affect economic results in both countries. Using case studies, economic modeling, and a qualitative analysis of government documents and academic sources, this comparative study explores the link between agriculture and other industries in the US and Nigeria. According to the paper, there is need for proactive administrative interferences and advocacy for technological advancement in efforts to enhance supply chain robustness against future shocks such as climate change, trade policies or pandemics. Responding to the negative economic externalities and maximizing the potential benefits entails comprehending how minor events in agriculture can cause ripple effects throughout the economy.

A local logistics business entering a niche market: PTL’s open innovation journey

Research methodology In writing this case, the authors collected both primary and secondary data. Primary data were collected through personal observation and semi-structured interviews with Konstantinos Papageorgiou Jr, Papageorgiou Transports &amp; Logistics’s (PTL) CEO. In 2014, Konstantinos Jr participated in an entrepreneurship course for executives instructed by the first author at the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens. Since then, the first author has served as an advisor to PTL’s CEO. Furthermore, Konstantinos Papageorgiou Jr presented his case during an undergraduate management course at the Department of Business Administration at the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens in November 2020. Finally, three semi-structured interviews with the CEO were conducted from December 2020 until March 2021. Secondary data were collected from the company’s website and social media, as well as databases and annual reports. Since the academic year 2021/2022, the authors have each independently taught the case study in various courses, including strategic management (undergraduate and postgraduate), entrepreneurship (undergraduate) and innovation management (undergraduate and postgraduate). Testing the case in class has shaped the instructor’s manual. Case overview/synopsis The case study of PTL highlights a remarkable transformation in response to a critical business challenge. Facing the abrupt loss of their main client in 2010, PTL, led by Konstantinos Papageorgiou Jr, swiftly recovered and sought to proactively mitigate future shocks. Operating amid the Greek economic crisis, Konstantinos Jr recognized an opportunity in the niche market of juvenile Mediterranean fish (fry) transport. Despite lacking prior expertise in this field, PTL engaged in open innovation, collaborating with a variety of partners to acquire the necessary knowledge and capabilities. By 2013, PTL had successfully entered the niche market of fry transportation. Over the subsequent years, this venture grew, and by the end of 2022, PTL operated four trucks dedicated to this niche market. The company’s remarkable transformation exemplifies how a small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) can adapt, innovate, and diversify its offerings beyond its comfort zone, ultimately achieving a tenfold increase in turnover. PTL’s journey showcases the strategic value of partnerships and the potential for SMEs to evolve into “innovation producers” in the face of adversity. Complexity academic level The PTL case is suitable for management, strategic management, innovation management and entrepreneurship courses. The case is recommended for use at both undergraduate and postgraduate levels (a different teaching plan is proposed for each level). It provides both undergraduate and master’s students studying business administration the opportunity to explore issues associated with the management of SMEs, the formulation and implementation of a business strategy and the management of innovation in SMEs.

From few large to many small investments: lessons for adaptive irrigation development in an uncertain world

Conventional approaches to irrigation development involve large lumpsum investments in big infrastructure that cannot adapt to changing climate and socio-economic conditions. There is an urgent need for alternative ways of investing in smallholder irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) that are adaptive and avoid capital lock-in. Adaptive Investment Pathways (AdIP), inspired by the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) concept, proposes stepwise investments to support smallholder irrigation development. AdIP builds resilience to future shocks through dynamic and flexible investment plans instead of investing in single static solutions. To develop an empirical grounding for operationalizing AdIP, we draw lessons from three case studies representing different stages of irrigation development along shallow sand river aquifers in Kenya and Zimbabwe. We retrospectively analyse the nature of investments at farm and landscape scales, and the type of risks and opportunities that farmers respond to. We find that in face of risks, farmers diversify their livelihoods, make small investments incrementally especially in response to opportunities and risks created by external triggers, and pause or reorient activity when they reach saturation points, i.e., biophysical or socio-political limits to their development objective, here irrigation development. Governments and external agencies can support smallholder irrigation development in SSA through targeted landscape scale investments that address saturation points faced by smallholders. This requires a robust participatory monitoring framework to identify and respond to saturation points, and a re-thinking of financing mechanisms which do not measure progress against a fixed schedule of investments, but instead measure continuous progress towards the development objective.