Resist, Recover, Renew: Fiscal Resilience as a Strategic Response to Economic Uncertainty

Abstract

The cyclicality of economic recessions worsens fiscal stability and increases vulnerability to future shocks. This article argues that the concept of resilience provides an important frame for understanding the dynamic character of public financial management. The study introduces a theoretical framework that decomposes fiscal resilience into precrisis fiscal resistance, postcrisis fiscal recovery, and long-term fiscal renewal. It empirically tests the model employing a Cox proportional hazard model and over three decades of data (1991–2018) covering two previous recessions—the dotcom recession and the Great Recession. The findings indicate that although strategic decisions associated with revenue diversification and countercyclical capacity facilitate fiscal resilience, specific features of local government finances such as the revenue structure and service structure are critical to fiscal recovery and renewal. In addition, the underlying characteristics of each recession affect whether institutional and economic conditions facilitate fiscal resilience. The article discusses implications for financial management and emphasizes embedding resiliency-based frameworks in local government strategic planning.