Future Scenarios Research Articles

Navigating post-pandemic urban mobility: Unveiling intentions for shared micro-mobility usage across three U.S. cities

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a far-reaching impact on travel patterns, leading to a ubiquitous yet unequal decrease in mobility across transportation modes. Specifically, shared mobility services experienced a shift in demand due to increased concerns about COVID-19 transmission. As we move beyond the pandemic, gaining insights into the evolving travel demand landscape becomes crucial for adapting operations to the new normal of travel behavior. To that end, this study seeks to examine travelers’ intentions to adopt shared e-scooters and bikes in a scenario where COVID-19 risk is no longer a prominent factor. To achieve this, survey data were collected in Fall 2022 from three cities in the Midwest U.S. with different sizes, population densities, and maturity of shared mobility services. The survey solicited respondents’ opinions about their willingness to adopt shared mobility services in a future scenario. Covariance-based multigroup structural equation modeling (MG-SEM) was conducted to compare travel attitudes and perceptions among users from the three cities. Findings highlight the positive influence of attitudes, perceived behavioral control, and social norms on intentions to use micro-mobility. Additionally, the study reveals an unexpected positive influence of COVID-19 risk perception on intentions in one of the three cities, presenting an opportunity for service providers to capitalize on the perceived safety of shared micro-mobility in the future. Information about the intention to use shared mobility can help service operators anticipate a potential rise in demand, inform their operations, implement incentives and employ new market strategies to boost ridership.

Emergent constraints on the future East Asian winter surface air temperature changes

Abstract In East Asia, the climate variability in boreal winter is dominated by the East Asian winter monsoon, one of the most energetic monsoon systems that can lead to disasters. The key variable, the East Asian winter surface air temperature (SAT), has significantly changed over the past century and has substantially impacted agriculture, ecosystems, economics, and public health. However, its projections are limited by considerable uncertainties. Here, we identify the first leading mode that explains almost 32.1% of the inter-model spread in future SAT change. Our research delves into the evolution of present-day biases under future scenarios and their consequential impact on the SAT. Models with stronger western currents in the North Pacific exhibit a warmer North Pacific at mid-latitudes during historical periods. Additionally, these models consistently demonstrate stronger western currents in the future, contributing to the amplified warming of the western North Pacific, thereby warming Eurasia via the weakened trough and subtropical jet through barotropic responses to the warm North Pacific. Incorporating observational sea surface temperature (SST) constraints reduces uncertainties by 15.6%, revealing a more reliable SAT change pattern by the end of the 21st century.

Risk Assessment of Spodoptera exempta against Food Security: Estimating the Potential Global Overlapping Areas of Wheat, Maize, and Rice under Climate Change

Spodoptera exempta, known as the black armyworm, has been extensively documented as an invasive agricultural pest prevalent across various crop planting regions globally. However, the potential geographical distribution and the threat it poses to host crops of remains unknown at present. Therefore, we used an optimized MaxEnt model based on 841 occurrence records and 19 bioclimatic variables to predict the potential suitable areas of S. exempta under current and future climatic conditions, and the overlap with wheat, rice, and maize planting areas was assessed. The optimized model was highly reliable in predicting potential suitable areas for this pest. The results showed that high-risk distribution areas for S. exempta were mainly in developing countries, including Latin America, central South America, central Africa, and southern Asia. Moreover, for the three major global food crops, S. exempta posed the greatest risk to maize planting areas (510.78 × 104 km2), followed by rice and wheat planting areas. Under future climate scenarios, global warming will limit the distribution of S. exempta. Overall, S. exempta had the strongest effect on global maize production areas and the least on global wheat planting areas. Our study offers a scientific basis for global prevention of S. exempta and protection of agricultural crops.

Effect of coastal hypoxia on bacterial diversity as elucidated through 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing

The formation of oxygen-depleted zones in the bottom waters is one of the most widespread phenomena in coastal areas. Upwelling episodes along India’s west coast due to the southwest monsoon increase biological productivity, further lowering the dissolved oxygen in the upwelled waters, which intensifies annually between June and October. Here, we have determined the changes in the microbial community in response to the varying oxygen levels and other physicochemical parameters at the Candolim Time Series Station using high-throughput sequencing. Amplicon Sequence Variants across all the samples collected in different seasons were mostly affiliated to the phyla Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Verrucomicrobia, Chloroflexi, Firmicutes and Planctomycetes, with the most dominant being Proteobacteria (21-41%). Statistical analysis revealed that microbial diversity differed significantly with changing DO, ammonia, nitrate and nitrite concentrations during different seasons. The microbial community shift due to seasonal hypoxia results in the differential biogeochemical cycling of essential nutrients, with certain years seeing redox conditions up to sulphate reduction while certain years seeing only nitrogen loss. Future global warming scenarios will serve as a big challenge for understanding the role of microbial diversity and its implications in the cycling of natural elements.

Global Atlas of Methane Metabolism Marker Genes in Soil.

Methane, a greenhouse gas, plays a pivotal role in the global carbon cycle, influencing the Earth's climate. Only a limited number of microorganisms control the flux of biologically produced methane in nature, including methane-oxidizing bacteria, anaerobic methanotrophic archaea, and methanogenic archaea. Although previous studies have revealed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of methane-metabolizing microorganisms in local regions by using the marker genes pmoA or mcrA, their biogeographical patterns and environmental drivers remain largely unknown at a global scale. Here, we used 3419 metagenomes generated from georeferenced soil samples to examine the global patterns of methane metabolism marker gene abundances in soil, which generally represent the global distribution of methane-metabolizing microorganisms. The resulting maps revealed notable latitudinal trends in the abundances of methane-metabolizing microorganisms across global soils, with higher abundances in the sub-Arctic, sub-Antarctic, and tropical rainforest regions than in temperate regions. The variations in global abundances of methane-metabolizing microorganisms were primarily governed by vegetation cover. Our high-resolution global maps of methane-metabolizing microorganisms will provide valuable information for the prediction of biogenic methane emissions under current and future climate scenarios.

A Quantitative and Qualitative Exploration of Futuristic Narratives on TVTropes.org

This paper embarks on a methodical exploration of TVTropes.org, a comprehensive crowd-sourced wiki that documents storytelling conventions across various forms of media, with a special focus on representations of artificial intelligence and future scenarios. The study delineates the multifaceted nature of the platform, asserting that its offerings extend beyond mere television tropes, and explores its potent applicability for futurists and scholars. Through the strategic application of web scraping and data analysis, this research quantifies diverse aspects of science fiction media and the embedded tropes therein. The paper underscores the pivotal role of tropes in shaping societal perceptions and influencing discourse, particularly in the realm of futuristic thinking, using instances such as the impact of “The Terminator” franchise on military strategic thinking as a case study. Furthermore, the research engages in a quantitative analysis of trope density and frequency within science fiction works, offering a nuanced understanding and uncovering patterns in storytelling conventions. This study thus offers a foundational framework for understanding, categorizing, and analyzing the influential images of the future that permeate today’s media environment, thereby providing a valuable resource for futurists, researchers, and media scholars in their respective endeavors.

Recipes for the Future of Seaweed Aquaculture

Climate cuisine is about eating the future you want into being. In this article, I examine how seaweed recipes can be forms of climate fiction through the way that the reader is invited to participate in sustainable foodways. I examine several popularizations of seaweed aquaculture that imagine practices of eating and growing seaweeds. Their formal similarities center on participation: they include the direct address of the reader through the second person voice, and position themselves as instructional models. Bren Smith’s Eat Like a Fish (Smith, Eat like a fish: My adventures as a fisherman turned restorative ocean farmer, Penguin, 2019) interpellates the reader as eater, invited to cultivate eating habits that, on a societal scale, would produce a more materially sustainable relation with the planet. The vignette “Ghost Bar,” which appears in Holly Jean Buck’s After Geoengineering: Climate Tragedy, Repair, and Restoration (Buck, After geoengineering: Climate tragedy, repair, and restoration, Verso, 2019), sensorily emplaces the reader in a future seaweed farm as a window into the kinds of livelihoods and forms of work that could be part of mitigating global warming. I trace the similarities between Smith's recipes and Buck’s interpellation of a reader, both of which use the second-person mode addressing an unmarked “you,” inviting this “you” to imagine and actualize the future dish or future scenario they sketch. While these texts have their own limitations at the level of the social imagination, such popularizations of seaweed aquaculture model an important way of understanding the intimacies of climate fiction and recipes. Recipes not only popularize the sustainable eating of seaweeds, but actively constitute a form of climate fiction through their intention to actualize more seaweedy futures.

Marginal land in China suitable for bioenergy crops under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios from 2020–2100

ABSTRACT Maximizing the development of renewable energy plays a critical role in mitigating the climate crisis. Marginal land provides space for the development of biomass energy; however, it remains unclear how the amount and spatial distribution of marginal land that is suitable for energy crop development will change in the future. Here, we project energy marginal land changes in China following the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) and/or representative concentration path (RCP). We provide datasets of marginal land, agriculturally suitable land, and potentially suitable for energy crops under historical scenarios and six future scenarios (i.e. SSP1–1.9, SSP1–2.6, SSP4–3.4, SSP2–4.5, SSP4–6.0, and SSP3–7.0) for the period 2020–2100, with a spatial resolution of 5 km. Under the six scenarios, from 2020–2100, the area of suitable marginal land ranged from 1.90–16.28 (Jatropha curcas L.) to 37.37–73.97 (Panicum virgatum L.) (×104 km2), depending on the choice of energy crops and climate scenario. Based on the growing suitability of eight important bioenergy crops—Ricinus communis L., Saccharum officinarum L., Pistacia chinensis Bunge, Panicum virgatum L., Jatropha curcas L., Miscanthus giganteus J., Manihot esculenta Crantz, and Sorghum bicolor Moench—our dataset can be used to identify suitable locations for specific energy crops. This new synthetic dataset could support the development of multiscenario-based solutions related to carbon neutrality, ecosystem services, and energy transition.

A Look at Genomic Selection Techniques for Climate Change Adaptation and Production in Livestock

Livestock production profoundly intersects with global climate dynamics, contributing to greenhouse gas emissions and confronting vulnerability to climate impacts. In addressing these challenges, imperative adjustments are requisite to fortify the climate robustness of livestock systems. Notably, the prevalent reliance on commercial breeds with limited genetic diversity exposes production strategies to disruption, especially if these breeds are confined to environments that may lose economic viability under future climate scenarios. Consequently, understanding the adaptability of animal populations to forthcoming environmental conditions is paramount for sustaining livestock production. Assessing the genetic underpinnings of climate adaptation necessitates the exploration of tailored genomic selection techniques encompassing both production traits, presumed to have moderate heritability, and adaptation traits, presumed to have low heritability. Through a nuanced examination of genomic selection dynamics, insights into the genetic mechanisms fostering resilience in livestock populations amidst shifting environmental contexts are garnered. Employ genomic analysis to pinpoint genetic markers associated with traits like heat tolerance, disease resistance, and feed efficiency in livestock. Collaborate across disciplines to develop tailored breeding programs integrating these markers, and validate their effectiveness through rigorous field trials and ongoing monitoring to enhance livestock resilience and productivity in varied climatic conditions. Elucidating these mechanisms and their application in breeding programs offers a comprehensive understanding of how genetic advancements can enhance both production efficiency and climate resilience in livestock. This discourse aims to bridge the chasm between scientific inquiry and pragmatic implementation, thereby facilitating informed decision-making in livestock breeding strategies tailored to mitigate the ramifications of climate change.

Rompendo o ciclo de emergência da justiça espacial

This paper examines the critical need to integrate prospective planning into territorial development processes for achieving spatial justice and sustainable urban futures. It highlights the limitations of a reactive approach to urban governance, particularly prevalent in Latin America, where weak institutions and unstable political systems often hinder long-term perspectives. The research emphasizes the importance of strategic foresight as a complementary tool to traditional planning practices. Territorial foresight facilitates the exploration of complex future scenarios, fostering collaborative learning and a shared vision among stakeholders. The study proposes a shift towards a proactive, foresight-driven approach that can help break the vicious cycle of addressing only immediate crises. By embracing prospective studies, urban planners and policymakers can gain insights into potential future trajectories, enabling them to anticipate challenges, adapt strategies, and make informed decisions aligned with long-term goals. This paper draws on discourse analysis to examine the work of Latin American institutions and scholars engaged in foresight studies. Ultimately, the paper advocates for a paradigm shift in urban governance, prioritizing long-term strategic vision. This is essential for overcoming the fragmentation of urban planning, addressing systemic inequalities, and laying the groundwork for more just, resilient, and sustainable urban territories.

Accounting of carbon sequestration and tradeoff under various climatic scenarios in alternative agricultural system: a comprehensive framework toward carbon neutrality

IntroductionThe increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, which mainly is attributed to fossil-fuel combustion and deforestation, is often suggested as one of the prime causative factors toward accelerated global warming. This commends for sequestration of atmospheric carbon under terrestrial systems to partially offset fossil-fuel emissions. Concerning the same, agricultural sector presents an extensive opportunity, especially for countries such as India where over 55% of the population is engaged in the agriculture sector.MethodsSequestering atmospheric carbon in agriculture requires the adoption of climate-resilient alternative agriculture practices without compromising food security. The deliberated study highlights the options of alteration in current conventional farming practices and its economic evaluation for sequestrating carbon under two Climate Change (CC) scenarios, viz., RCP 4.5 and 8.5, over three temporal scales, i.e., 2020, 2030, and 2050. Considering the current land-use pattern and existing growth rate in land-use shifting, three land-use policies, namely, Business as Usual (BaU), Optimistic, and Pessimistic scenario, integrated with CC scenarios were contemplated. Six possible futuristic scenarios were generated for the assessment of carbon sequestration and its valuation following the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoff (InVEST) model.ResultsThe results suggested that across the studied region adopting an optimistic policy over BaU and pessimistic scenario, carbon can sequestrate an additional 0.64 to 1.46 Mt. (2.35 to 5.36 million ton CO2e) having an economic value of 193.4 to 504.8 million USD.ResultsMoreover, the outcomes of the study are advocated for the policy of carbon credit in the agriculture sector, which shall contribute toward meeting various nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and sustainable development goals (SDGs) as well.

Climate change could negate U.S. forest ecosystem service benefits gained through reductions in nitrogen and sulfur deposition

Climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) impact the health and productivity of forests. Here, we explored the potential impacts of these environmental stressors on ecosystem services provided by future forests in the contiguous U.S. We found that all stand-level services benefitted (+ 2.6 to 8.1%) from reductions in N+S deposition, largely attributable to positive responses to reduced S that offset the net negative effects of lower N levels. Sawtimber responded positively (+ 0.5 to 0.6%) to some climate change, but negatively (− 2.4 to − 3.8%) to the most extreme scenarios. Aboveground carbon (C) sequestration and forest diversity were negatively impacted by all modelled changes in climate. Notably, the most extreme climate scenario eliminated gains in all three services achieved through reduced deposition. As individual tree species responded differently to climate change and atmospheric deposition, associated services unique to each species increased or decreased under future scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change should be considered when evaluating the benefits of N and S air pollution policies on the services provided by U.S. forests.

Study on the Application of Water Resource Management Based on GF-7 Stereo Mapping Satellite

Abstract. GF-7 satellite was successfully launched on 3 Nov 2019. The two-line stereo camera can effectively obtain 20 km-width panchromatic stereo images with resolution better than 0.8m and 3.2m-resolution multispectral images. Through the composite mapping mode of stereo camera and laser altimeter, the satellite realizes 1:10,000-scale stereo mapping. This article selected the Qiafuqihai Reservoir and its upstream of the Yili River Basin as the study area. Hydrological landforms and vegetation coverage were monitored and three-dimensional dynamic simulation software was developed to verify the potential application of GF-7 stereo mapping satellite data in supporting drainage basin water resource allocation and management in future scenarios. 3 meters DSM derived from GF-7 surveying and mapping satellite finely portrayed the characteristics of hydroponic landforms of small watersheds. The upstream of Qiafuqihai was divided into eleven small watersheds. The water density was 8.5 times more than which was produced from STRM 90m. The elevation of the water-level fluctuation zone of the Qiafuqihai Reservoir ranged from 970 to 998 meters with the water area changed from 28.3 to 57.6 square kilometres. The terrain in the northwest and northeast was flat, with the main vegetation types being natural grasslands (64.9%) and arid lands (5.03%). The three-dimensional dynamic visualization software was developed and demonstrated hydrology information, vegetation coverage information and dynamic changes in the landform of the basin in three-dimensional environment. GF-7, the stereo surveying and mapping satellite, could be perfectly able to support the application of water resources deployment and management in the future.

Temporal Orientations in Life Stories

This article draws on ethnographic material from life stories and nonfiction literature and is complemented by fieldwork vignettes. The material is used to discuss how experiences of connections and disconnections between past and present, self and intergenerational relationships, relate to temporal orientations (Bryant and Knight 2019). In the narratives, traces of two salient paradigms framing the temporality of the present, which represent antithetical ways of dealing with connections between the past, present and future, are identified. These traces are found in expressions such as ‘timelessness’, ‘beauty’, ‘now’, and ‘silences’, but also more negatively, as ‘depression’, ‘hauntings’, ‘pain’, and ‘time collapse’. I argue that the two paradigms (‘presentism’ and ‘presence’) coexist, and that they are partly in conflict with each other. Traces of temporality in life stories provide us with keys to understand how temporal orientations, and their related horizons of expectation (Koselleck 1985) may also contribute to shape life trajectories. By explicating how narrators grapple with experiences of temporal disruption and how they try to come to terms with their experiences by seeing them as parts of larger societal events, aspects of the mechanisms whereby dominant modes of thinking become established are made visible to us (Scarry 2022). The merit in this kind of exploration for the ethnography of historicity (Palmié and Stewart 2019), lies in its potential for showing us how future life scenarios are impacted by the ways in which people deal with past events and affect their potential futures. Keywords: Temporal orientations, presentism, presence, historicity, life stories, self, intergenerational relationships.

Digital twins in aircraft production and MRO: challenges and opportunities

AbstractThe digital twin (DT) concept, value-adding connecting the real and digital world, has been a rising trend in recent years, while the implementation and observation of challenges are still subject to research. Implementations of holistic Digital Twins of tangible and intangible assets of complex products or processes are often ideal-theoretic; instead, only subsystems and processes are replicated, which digital representations serve specific, meaningful applications. Specifically, with its distinct characteristics, the aviation industry and its production show various future application scenarios, which we use case-driven outline in this work. Therefore, we first summarize common, industry-neutral challenges of implementing Digital Twins and give an overview of aircraft production characteristics. Then, we will outline different fields of utilizing the Digital Twin concept and highlight integrational, organizational, and compliance-related challenges as well as opportunities in the context of aircraft production and Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO). The use cases are located at different aircraft life cycle phases, from production system development, production supplying logistics, and Quality Assurance (QA) up to retrofit.

What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot

Commodity agriculture continues to spread into tropical dry forests globally, eroding their social-ecological integrity. Understanding where deforestation frontiers expand, and which impacts this process triggers, is thus important for sustainability planning. We reconstructed past land-system change (1985–2015) and simulated alternative land-system futures (2015–2045) for the Gran Chaco, a 1.1 million km2 global deforestation hotspot with high biological and cultural diversity. We co-developed nine plausible future land-system scenarios, consisting of three contrasting policy narratives (Agribusiness, Ecomodernism, and Integration) and three agricultural expansion rates (high, medium, and low). We assessed the social-ecological impacts of our scenarios by comparing them with current biodiversity, carbon density, and areas used by forest-dependent people. Our analyses revealed four major insights. First, intensified agriculture and mosaics of agriculture and remaining natural vegetation have replaced large swaths of woodland since 1985. Second, simulated land-system futures until 2045 revealed potential hotspots of natural vegetation loss (e.g. western and southern Argentinian Chaco, western Paraguayan Chaco), both due to the continued expansion of existing agricultural frontiers and the emergence of new ones. Third, the strongest social-ecological impacts were consistently connected to the Agribusiness scenarios, while impacts were lower for the Ecomodernism and Integration scenarios. Scenarios based on our Integration narrative led to lower social impacts, while Ecomodernism had lower ecological impacts. Fourth, comparing recent land change with our simulations showed that 10% of the Chaco is on a pathway consistent with our Agribusiness narrative, associated with adverse social-ecological impacts. Our results highlight that much is still at stake in the Chaco. Stricter land-use and conservation planning are urgently needed to avoid adverse social-ecological outcomes, and our results charting the option space of plausible land-system futures can support such planning.

Leveraging regional mesh refinement to simulate future climate projections for California using the Simplified Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model Version 0

Abstract. The spatial heterogeneity related to complex topography in California demands high-resolution (< 5 km) modeling, but global convection-permitting climate models are computationally too expensive to run multi-decadal simulations. We developed a 3.25 km California climate modeling framework by leveraging regional mesh refinement (CARRM) using the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s global Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) version 0. Four 5-year time periods (2015–2020, 2029–2034, 2044–2049, and 2094–2099) were simulated by nudging CARRM outside California to 1° coupled simulation of E3SMv1 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)5-8.5 future scenario. The 3.25 km grid spacing adds considerable value to the prediction of the California climate changes, including more realistic high temperatures in the Central Valley and much improved spatial distributions of precipitation and snowpack in the Sierra Nevada and coastal stratocumulus. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, CARRM simulation predicts widespread warming of 6–10 °C over most of California, a 38 % increase in statewide average 30 d winter–spring precipitation, a near-complete loss of the alpine snowpack, and a sharp reduction in shortwave cloud radiative forcing associated with marine stratocumulus by the end of the 21st century. We note a climatological wet precipitation bias for the CARRM and discuss possible reasons. We conclude that SCREAM RRM is a technically feasible and scientifically valid tool for climate simulations in regions of interest, providing an excellent bridge to global convection-permitting simulations.

Sandy beach erosion: impacts and adaptation strategies in Thailand

AbstractThis paper focuses on sandy beach erosion as a result of rising sea levels, including adaptation option analysis in Thailand. Twenty-seven beaches in the provinces of Rayong, Nakhon Si Thammarat, and Trang were selected as study areas with high rates of erosion. The major scientific challenge entailed determining the relevance and contribution of rising sea levels (including storms) to beach erosion. The SimCLIM/CoastCLIM model was utilized to forecast changes in sea level and shoreline during the period of 1940–2100. A cost–benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted to evaluate adaptation options in terms of economics. The main outcome was a relevant contribution to knowledge on sea-level rise (including storm alteration) and its effects on sandy beach erosion, in terms of loss of sandy beach area and population migration. The results indicate that Mae Phim, Ban Ko Fai, and Pak Meng beaches are all threatened by erosion, and 8.02 and 23.26% of the erosion are attributed to storms and sea-level rise. Future scenarios (in 2100) showed 124.38 cm rise in 2100 sea level (compared to the 1995 baseline) leading to 507.90 m of eroded beaches, 2.15 km2 of sand loss and 873 people migrating. The results of CBA show that scenario 2 (beach nourishment) is not proper for application as an adaptation option on sandy beaches with high amounts of erosion (Ban Ko Fai and Pak Meng beach), while the option of beach nourishment alone is likely to be applied on Mae Phim beach due to its lower rate of erosion.

Response of Streamflow to Future Land Use and Cover Change and Climate Change in the Source Region of the Yellow River

This study utilizes meteorological and leaf area index (LAI) data for three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5) from four general circulation models (GCMs) of the sixth climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6) spanning from 2015 to 2099. Employing calibrated data and incorporating future land use data under three SSPs, the distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) is employed to simulate streamflow in the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR). The research aims to elucidate variations in streamflow across different future scenarios and to estimate extreme streamflow events and temporal distribution changes under future land use and cover change (LUCC) and climate change scenarios. The main conclusions are as follows: The grassland status in the SRYR will significantly improve from 2020 to 2099, with noticeable increases in temperature, precipitation, and longwave radiation, alongside a pronounced decrease in wind speed. The probability of flooding events increases in the future, although the magnitude of the increase diminishes over time. Both LUCC and climate change contribute to an increase in the multi-year average streamflow in the region, with respective increments of 48.8%, 24.5%, and 18.9% under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5. Notably, the fluctuation in streamflow is most pronounced under SSP5–8.5. In SSP1–2.6, the increase in streamflow during the near future (2020–2059) exceeds that of the distant future (2059–2099). Seasonal variations in streamflow intensify across most scenarios, leading to a more uneven distribution of streamflow throughout the year and an extension of the flood season.

Predicting habitat suitability for the Australian cycad-attacking weevil (Siraton internatus) under climate change

AbstractCycads hold important economic and conservation value. Some species are extensively used in landscaping, while others are endangered and legally protected. The Australian cycad-attacking weevil, Siraton internatus, is notably destructive, occasionally causing infestations and invasions across various countries. This study simulated habitat suitability for S. internatus to assess its potential invasion and the impact of climate change. Habitat suitability was evaluated under current climate and four climate change scenarios over two time frames (2050 and 2090). Furthermore, we investigated the threat posed by S. internatus to cycad reserves, using Taiwanese reserves as a representative case. Our MaxEnt predictions demonstrated high accuracy, meeting multiple evaluation criteria. We explored the potential distribution of S. internatus within Australia and internationally, identifying suitable habitats in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe. The case study highlighted the low habitat suitability within the two Taiwanese cycad reserves, which is projected to decrease to unsuitable levels under future climate change scenarios for this weevil species. Moreover, our results revealed that suitable habitat for S. internatus is projected to contract globally under all climate scenarios and time periods, but expansion in Chile and the southern Himalaya (e.g., Nepal). This study provides valuable insights into cycad conservation and pest invasion risks. The results support both global and local efforts to manage the invasion threats from this destructive Australian cycad-attacking weevil species. It also accentuates the urgency for continuous biosecurity inspections and prevention of exporting mature cycad caudexes from Australia.