The African fulcrum to bend the curve of the climate crisis to a just transition

Abstract

From a current impact of under 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, rapid industrialization and population growth in Africa could dramatically change the continent’s emissions profile. In this study, we develop an analytic framework to quantify future scenarios and project that, in mid- and green-growth scenarios, Africa’s emissions would amount to just 4%–13% of the planned carbon savings in major economies. However, in a high-growth scenario without climate-conscious development, African emissions could jeopardize global mitigation efforts. Less than 20 nations could account for 80%–90% of the continent’s emissions, highlighting the critical role of green growth pathways centered on rapid clean energy adoption in just a few countries to transform the continent’s energy landscape. A 20-fold increase in investment and project completion rates is required to meet the renewable energy targets in these countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Our analysis underscores the need for nuanced country-specific strategies that prioritize equity and financial support for optimal climate and development progress in Africa.