Assessing uncertainty in bioclimatic modelling: a comparison of two high-resolution climate datasets in northern Patagonia

Abstract

Climate change is reshaping forest ecosystems, presenting urgent and complex challenges that demand attention. In this context, research that quantifies interactions between climate and forests is substantial. However, modelling at a spatial resolution relevant for ecological processes presents a significant challenge, especially given the diverse geographical contexts in which it is applied. In our study, we aimed to assess the effects of applying CHELSA v.2.1 and WorldClim v2.1 data on bioclimatic analysis within the Río Puelo catchment area in northern Patagonia. To achieve this, we inter-compared and evaluated present and future bioclimates, drawing on data from both climate datasets. Our findings underscore substantial consistency between both datasets for temperature variables, confirming the reliability of both for temperature analysis. However, a strong contrast emerges in precipitation predictions, with significant discrepancies highlighted by minimal overlap in bioclimatic classes, particularly in steep and elevated terrains. Thus, while CHELSA and WorldClim provide valuable temperature data for northern Patagonia, their use for precipitation analysis requires careful consideration of their limitations and potential inaccuracies. Nevertheless, our bioclimatic analyses of both datasets under different scenarios reveal a uniform decline in mountain climates currently occupied by N. pumilio, with projections suggesting a sharp decrease in their coverage under future climate scenarios.