Future Regional Development Research Articles

The impact of regional material flows on circular economy: A case study of southwest China

AbstractCircular economy is beneficial to solve the conflict between the environment and development. The study combines the material flow in human society with the evaluation of the regional circular economy. Through the evaluation method combining DEA and rank‐sum ratio, the development level of circular economy in this area is evaluated from both vertical and horizontal perspectives (time level and space level). The result shows: (1) from the point of view of material input, direct material input, total material demand and total material consumption all show an upward trend. The overall resource input is relatively large. (2) In terms of material output, the emission is increasing. But the growth rate is relatively slow. The emission reduction effect is outstanding. The resource output rate showed a continuous growth trend. Economic development is less dependent on the massive consumption of natural resources. (3) In terms of material circulation, the import volume of natural resources outside the province in the southwest region increased. Solid waste recycling is not high. (4) Judging from the evaluation results, the development level of Sichuan's circular economy is relatively stable. Followed by Chongqing and Guizhou. However, the level of development in Yunnan fluctuates greatly. The material consumption rate in Southwest China is higher than the economic growth rate. Resource input and resource consumption are still relatively large. Although some environmental indicators have improved, there are still serious resource and environmental problems in the future economic development of the western region that need to be paid attention. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparing machine learning methods for predicting land development intensity.

Land development intensity is a comprehensive indicator to measure the degree of saving and intensive land construction and economic production activities. It is also the result of the joint action of natural, social, economic, and ecological elements in land development and utilization. Scientific prediction of land development intensity has particular reference significance for future regional development planning and the formulation of reasonable land use policies. Based on the inter-provincial land development intensity and its influencing factors in China, this study applied four algorithms, XGBoost, random forest model, support vector machine, and decision tree, to simulate and predict the land development intensity, and then compared the prediction accuracy of the four algorithms, and also carried out hyperparameter adjustment and prediction accuracy verification. The results show that the model with the best prediction performance among the four algorithms is XGBoost, and its R2 and MSE between predicted and valid values are 95.66% and 0.16, respectively, which are higher than the other three models. During the training process, the learning curve of the XGBoost model exhibited low fluctuation and fast fitting. Hyperparameter tuning is crucial to exploit the model's potential. The XGBoost model has the best prediction performance with the best hyperparameter combination of max_depth:19, learning_rate: 0.47, and n_estimatiors:84. This study provides some reference significance for the simulation of land development and utilization dynamics.

A new pattern to quantitatively evaluate the value of ecosystem services in the large-scale open-pit coal mining area

IntroductionOpen-pit coal mining could disrupt the ecosystem and lead to the loss of service values for the ecosystem through direct occupation or indirect impacts on adjacent ecosystems.MethodsIn this research, we combined a new accounting system, gross ecosystem product (GEP), with spatial–temporal analyses to quantify the ecological variation and explore its driving factors in Pingshuo, a large-scale open-pit coal mining area in China. GEP is an aggregate accounting system that can summarize the value of provisioning, regulating, and cultural ecosystem services (ES) in a single monetary metric. The spatial–temporal approaches used in our study were known as exploratory spatial data analyses and interpretable models in machine learning. Both spatial and non-spatial data, including remote sensing images, meteorological data, and official statistics, were applied in the research.ResultsThe results indicated the following: (i) From 1990 to 2020, the annual average growth rates of GEP decreased from 30.78 to 9.1%. Furthermore, the classified results of GEP revealed that the regions with rich ES quality rapidly reduced from 51.90 to 32.18%. (ii) Spatial correlation of GEP was significant, and the degree of spatial clustering was relatively high in the mining areas. Moreover, the mining areas also continually presented concentrated high-density and hot spot areas of GEP changes. (iii) The spatial–temporal effects were notable in the relationship between GEP and three socioeconomic factors, i.e., the mining effects, human activity intensity, and gross domestic product (GDP). (iv) The win–win development for both the economy and ecological environment in Pingshuo could be realized by restricting the annual growth rate of mining areas to between 4.56 and 5.03%.DiscussionThe accounting results and spatial–temporal analyses of GEP will contribute to the future regional sustainable development and ecosystem management in Pingshuo.

Extraction of Impermeable Surfaces Based on Multi-Source Nighttime Light Images of Different Geomorphological Partitions

Accurate extraction of impermeable surfaces is important for assessing land use change and improving the urban heat island effect. Nighttime light imagery has the advantage of being efficient and cost effective, providing a new perspective for monitoring and extracting impermeable surfaces and analyzing urban expansion processes. However, for the vast Karst terrain fragmentation area located in southwest China, the extraction of impermeable surface information faces many challenges due to surface landscape fragmentation and nighttime light image resolution. These challenges include light spillover, oversaturation and limited understanding of spatial links with surface types at fine scales. This study uses Luojia1-01, NPP-VIIRS, and Flint as remote sensing data sources to examine the applicability of nighttime light images in extracting impermeable surfaces from geomorphologically complex areas. The results show that Luojia1-01 data can provide finer spatial details and more accurate impermeable surface extraction results than NPP-VIIRS and Flint data. The relative error of extracted area in regions with large topographic relief is higher than that in regions with flat topographic cuttings. The extraction results of the three images are spatially similar; however, the overall accuracy is poor, and a single nighttime light image is not the best solution for obtaining impermeable surface information in large scale terrain fragmentation areas. However, the integrated application of multi-source light images is a trend for future regional research and development, and the best way to extract impermeable surfaces in complex terrain areas should be explored in conjunction with other remote sensing data sources in the future.

Ecological security pattern construction and zoning along the China-Laos Railway based on the potential-connectedness-resilience framework

Rapid developments associated with large-scale transport infrastructure have exacerbated ecological risks, posing major threats to biodiversity and ecosystem services. Construction of ecological security patterns (ESPs) can effectively mitigate this threat, but existing construction of ESPs lacks consideration of the risk to landscape connectivity and resilience, as well as zoning optimization at a finer resolution. This study focused on the region along the China-Laos Railway to evaluate the landscape ecological risk (LER) based on the potential-connectedness-resilience framework and extracted ESP elements according to the LER evaluation. Clustering of LER and ecological quality index was introduced to facilitate more targeted management of ESP. We found that the regional LER was most likely elevated because the proportion of LER at the medium level and above was close to 50 %. Moreover, the segmentation and penetration of high-risk areas into low-risk areas was prominent. The distribution of low LER areas was notably shaped by regional resilience, while road expansion would create many medium and higher risk areas, and the development of industrial parks would generate high risks in urban peripheries. 2,615.88 km of ecological corridors enabled the 17,362.08 km2 ecological sources to be effectively connected. 33 ecological nodes and 115 stepping stones were extracted as valid complements to key areas of weak connectivity. Priority treatment of specific sources (4.88 %) and ecological corridors (29.93 %) enhances the resilience of ESP. Our study provides a method for integrating the assessment of ecological risks arising from future regional development with the construction and optimization of ESPs, which can be promoted in ecological conservation planning in developing countries driven by infrastructure and industrial parks.

Projecting Future Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin Based on CMIP6 Models

Abstract Water resources severely constrain high-quality development in the Yellow River basin (YRB). Predicting the trend of precipitation on the basis of satisfying precision has important guiding significance for future regional development. Using the projected precipitation in 12 CMIP6 models, this study applied the most appropriate correction method for each model from four quantile-mapping methods and projected future changes of annual precipitation in the YRB and three key regions. The projection uncertainty was quantitatively assessed by addressing model spread (MS) and range. The precipitation anomaly under all four scenarios would increase for the YRB and key regions. The increasing rates (the linear coefficient) from Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 126 (SSP126) to SSP585 were 30–62, 60–103, 84–122, and 134–204 mm (100 yr)−1, respectively. The largest increase was the sediment-yielding region, which reached about 40–60 mm in 2031–60 and 70–125 mm in 2061–90. The 400-mm isohyet was projected to move continuously to the northwest in the future. The uncertainty quantified by MS was reduced by 85.9%–94.6%, and projection ranges were less than 50 mm (about 10% of climatology) in most parts of YRB. From the increasing trend of future precipitation in the YRB, it can be inferred that the arid region will shrink. It may be a good opportunity to implement ecological conservation and high-quality development of the YRB successfully. Significance Statement We want to understand the spatial–temporal evolution pattern of future precipitation in the Yellow River basin (YRB) under climate change scenarios. In the future, the precipitation in the YRB and the three key regions will increase, with the sediment-yielding region increasing the most, and the arid region will shrink. Our findings confirm that the spatial–temporal patterns of precipitation in the YRB will change significantly under climate change scenarios. These findings will guide ecological protection and regional social and economic development in the YRB. Future research should focus on adaptation strategies of agricultural production patterns to climate change.

Spatio-temporal Coupling Analysis of Population Urbanization and Economic Development in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Population urbanization and economic development are highly correlated, and the degree of coordination between the two has gradually become one of the important issues for the healthy development of the region. With the advancement of high-quality integration in the Yangtze River Delta, it is particularly important to clarify the coupling and coordination process and spatial differentiation between population urbanization and economic development for the future integration and sustainable development of the Yangtze River Delta region. Given this, we establish a comprehensive evaluation index system of population urbanization and economic development based on the period of 2009–2020. Taking the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as the research object, the entropy method and the coupling coordination model are used to carry out Spatio-temporal coupling analysis. The results show that (1) the level of population urbanization and economic development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is continuously rising, while economic development lags behind population urbanization development, and the economic development level needs to be further improved. The degree of coupling coordination of population urbanization and economic development has continued to increase, and the synergistic development effect of the two has been improved, (2) the comprehensive level of population urbanization and economic development of each city in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration shows an obvious inter-regional unbalanced development trend, and (3) there is an obvious polarization in the coupling coordination level between population urbanization and economic development in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.

Impact of Heterogeneous Spatial Structure on Regional Innovation—From the Perspectives of Efficiency and Gap

Reasonable spatial system distribution is the prerequisite for the optimization of resource and spatial allocation and the coordinated development of the regional economy. Therefore, correctly identifying the impact of different types of spatial structures on scientific and technological innovation is an important way to promote the rational layout of regional spatial structures and enhance the strength of regional scientific and technological innovation. Based on the theory of regional spatial structure and panel data of 26 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 2005 to 2019, this paper tested the impact of regional spatial structure on innovation efficiency and gap by constructing the regional spatial structure index, the innovation efficiency index, and the innovation gap index. The research results show that: First, the agglomeration effect produced by a single-center spatial structure is conducive to improving the efficiency of scientific and technological innovation, whereas the spillover effect generated by a multi-center spatial structure is more favorable for narrowing the gap in scientific and technological innovation. Second, the single-center spatial structure is more suitable for provinces and cities in the western region with relatively low levels of economic development, whereas the multi-center spatial structure is more beneficial to the achievement of innovative and high-quality development in the eastern region. Third, the moderating effect analysis shows that with an increase in cultural diversity and inter-city distance, the partial effects of the single-center spatial structure on innovation efficiency present an “N” shape and an “inverted-U” shape, respectively, whereas the partial effects of the multi-center spatial structure on the innovation gap exhibit “inverted-U” shapes. This research not only provides theoretical support for the impact of regional spatial structure on innovation efficiency and gap but also offers empirical evidence for future regional development path choices.

Fearsome Horses: the nightmares that wrecked Lambton Quay

The 1970s saw an unprecedented wave of building demolition along the western side of Lambton Quay as well as in other parts of central Wellington. A 1972 survey carried out by the City Corporation identified buildings they determined to be at risk of collapse in a moderate earthquake, with "A" being the highest risk category. Those classified as "A" were then targeted for demolition. The survey followed a Chamber of Commerce discussion paper produced in November 1971 that was concerned with future regional development. As a result, many small buildings were replaced with fewer, much larger tower blocks. These tower blocks were built to maximise returns on investment according to the size of the footprint (with little or no regard for aesthetics). Although some were completed in the 1970s, others were not topped off until the 1980s.
 This paper evaluates the reasons for the apparent sudden upsurge in awareness of "awesome forces," the publicity given to the survey, and the likely outcomes for building owners. It traces the building history of a varied selection of "at risk" commercial premises; a few of which have survived - at least partially in façade form - and some of the buildings that succeeded them. At the time there seems to have been little historical consideration or awareness of what was being lost, and strengthening options were seldom explored in depth. Hence many varied two- to five-storey buildings erected in late Victorian and early Edwardian times were irreversibly pulled down to be replaced by characterless, anonymous and overbearing tower blocks.

A Country of Bricks – How to Transform Waste into Viable Products for Construction

We live in complex times, in a world where the difference between rich and poor people is enormous. The distance between the two social categories increases from year to year, especially when in a certain year, events appear that can be included in the category of natural disasters and that have a very big impact on the security and well-being of the population. The study we propose considers two elements: an analysis of poor people, who do not have a stable shelter and who suffer greatly from it, but also a product we are working on and which could have a positive impact, both on them, as well as on the environment. The study we propose is based on data provided by EUROSTAT and the National Institute of Statistics (NSI), in order to determine the number and distribution of people who do not have a house or have a disused building in which they live. Based on the values ​​obtained in the period 2000-2019 we can determine, equally, the dynamics of declining population security (lack of housing or improper housing), as well as the positive impact on the environment, if this product will be implemented nationally. Attention must be focused on how to make the future product, brick. This attention is necessary because we use, in the construction of future bricks, raw material that may contain various bacteria that can, in turn, endanger the lives of the population, if the construction process is not checked at any time and if certain are not used. substances intended to destroy bacteria before the actual composition of the product and its assembly. On the one hand, the realization of this product will offer an extra chance in the fight against poverty by ensuring an optimal living environment. Building a house for people in the social category of poor people is a chance for them to start a new life. Every individual needs the security of a place to consider at home. On the other hand, the realization of this product has certain benefits for the environment. Based on the principle of the circular economy, the waste that currently pollutes most surfaces in Romania can be transformed into bricks and used to build houses or sell them to our neighbors. In this way, the quantities of waste stored in landfills can be reduced by up to 60-70%. At the end of the analysis and description of the product, we formulated certain courses of action in order to streamline the selective collection and increase the number of bricks, as well as certain courses of action that may be the basis of a future regional development strategy.
 Keywords: Social Security, Circular economy, Ecology, Regional development

Assessing the value of user-generated images of urban surroundings for house price estimation

Determinants of housing prices are particularly significant for monitoring and understanding housing prices. Traditional variables are measured through official statistics or questionnaire surveys, which are labour intensive and time-consuming. New forms of data, such as point of interest or street view imagery, have been used to extract housing location and neighbourhood features, but they cannot capture how different individuals recognised and evaluated the properties nearby, which may also be relevant in the house price estimation. Therefore, this study investigates whether user-generated images may be used to monitor and understand housing prices and how they influence real estate values. Within this context, perceived scenes features are extracted and quantified to blend with commonly used determinants of housing prices. Two machine learning algorithms, random forest and gradient boosting machines, are utilised and deployed for integration with a typical housing price modelling-hedonic price model. By comparing the performance and interpretability of different models, the relative importance of features and how they influence the estimation power of the models is visualised and analysed. The findings suggest that random forest predictions perform the best and are interpretable, with geotagged Flickr images adding 4.6% to the model’s accuracy (R2) from 61.9% to 66.5%. Although user-generated images increase minor value in house price estimation, they may be used as a supplementary data source to capture perception features for house price estimation. This could help the restructuring and optimisation of residential areas in future regional construction, planning and development.

Transport factor in shaping greater spaces: the Caspian and beyond

One of the dominating theories in modern international politics which in various respects explains and describes the key features of multipolar world order is the theory of greater spaces proposed by Carl Schmitt. The theory experiences its re-interpretation as many of current developments can be coherently explained by special logic. It is especially true for strategically important regions such as the Caspian region where transport factor can serve as the driver of going beyond the geographical boundaries and expanding into a greater space begin connected to adjacent states not only by geopolitical interests but by transport routes as well. The authors ground their assumption on diverse and substantial research material which includes scholarly publications on the theory of great spaces, geopolitical factors, present-day situation in the Caspian region, and statistics data of its transport potential and trade indices. Being profoundly analyzed from the point of view of various theories, Caspian politics is the reflection of diverse global, regional and national interests, while energy issues are still dominated by geopolitics. The authors point out that to follow the principles of greater space theory may turn out to be the best option for the future development of the Caspian region.

Ocean Literacy across the Mediterranean Sea basin: Evaluating Middle School Students’ Knowledge, Attitudes, and Behaviour towards Ocean Sciences Issues

The Mediterranean Sea is characterized by rich biodiversity, and its region hosts people living in several countries with a rich variety of cultures, but – at the same time – it is “under siege”, due to anthropogenic pressures. To address these pressures, many actions are needed aiming, among others, at establishing Ocean Literacy (OL) across the Mediterranean countries and preparing the future generation of Mediterranean Sea-literate citizens. Towards this aim, the present cross-national study investigated OL issues in relation to content knowledge, possible common misconceptions, attitudes, and the self-reported behavior of 2,533 middle school students from eight Mediterranean countries (Croatia, Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain, and Turkey), as well as certain background elements (e.g., gender, grade level, environmental education experience, sources of relevant information). The results of this study revealed that middle school students of all studied countries possess a moderate level of ocean sciences content knowledge, while they showed satisfactory pro-environmental attitudes and behavior. These findings along with further research are expected to function as a baseline for the design, implementation, and launch of specifically targeted programs, educational activities, teaching resources, curricula, and school textbooks, which will be achieved through close collaboration between schools, universities, research institutes, and Ministries of Education, thus contributing to the future protection and sustainable development of the Mediterranean Sea region.

Behind the new European Union strategy on Central Asia: some conceptual aspects

The research article would be devoted to the study on the new EU-Central Asia strategy for partnership, which has been presented this year in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Given geopolitical characteristics of region countries and importance of Central Asian region for the world leading countries and economies, authors develops further research ideas on the theoretical, methodological and legal basics of that strategy. For almost three decades of partnership, Central Asia has become of a great strategic importance to the European Union due to the geographic location of the region between Asia and Europe and mutual common interests in cooperation issues. The new EU-CA cooperation strategy lies within the general foreign policy of the European Union towards its neighboring countries and regions. The author tries to find and justify changes and challenges of new strategy, comparing to the previous one, and comes to the conclusion on the inevitable importance of the European Union for the future development of Central Asian region. Key words: European Union, Central Asia, new strategy, partnership, aspects.

An indicator-based sustainability assessment method for indigenous communities: a case study from Mexico

Indigenous and Western communities are faced with increasing issues of sustainability compromising their natural resources and cultural heritage, for example, a cross-pollination/complementary approach in relation to their current knowledge systems and discourses on sustainability. There is a need for methods that integrate different discourses relating to sustainability to identify the most pressing needs in terms of sustainability. Sustainability assessments are a type of impact assessment that focus on enhanced sustainability both now and in the future; however, the literature on indigenous sustainability assessment methods, is scarce. To address this gap, we have developed a novel Sustainability Assessment method for Indigenous Communities (SAIC). The SAIC method combines Western and indigenous sustainability objectives and principles, in order to extend the range of options for action to address sustainability. The SAIC method consists of two sections (i) values and considerations and (ii) procedure. The “values and considerations” section establishes the fundamental participatory and ethical considerations for conducting sustainability assessments in indigenous communities, and the “procedure” section establishes a set of 55 indicators in eight categories. The method was tested in a Zapotec, indigenous community in México. Results show that this community was rated highly in all eight categories. However, indicators for family planning and access to health services were rated poorly. The identified issues can be used as guidelines for decision making in future regional projects and development plans. The results reveal further areas for improvement, such as strengthening the links to national or international networks and increasing the use of renewable energies. The method presented in this paper provides an assessment approach based on Western and indigenous sustainability discourses, which is suitable for assessing indigenous communities.

Pewilayahan Komoditas Pertanian Berdasarkan Zona Agroekologi Di Kabupaten Cirebon Bagian Timur

Zoning of agricultural commodities in Cirebon Regency is needed in the framework of determining and developing superior commodities that have comparative advantages. The aim of this research is to arrange the zoning of agricultural commodities based on the agroecological zone in Eastern Cirebon Regency. The research location includes 16 sub-districts in Eastern Cirebon Regency, covering an area of ​​54.015 ha. The methods used in the research include: surveys, laboratory analysis, land evaluation and spatial analysis. The results obtained 10 agricultural systems and 30 commodity zoning units which inclu de: a) wetland agriculture, with commodities of lowland rice, shallots, sugar cane, corn and soybeans, b) dry land agriculture, food crops, with upland rice and corn commodities, c) dry land agriculture, animal feed (grass), d) dry land agriculture, food crops (upland rice, maize, peanuts, soybeans) and perennial crops (sugarcane, teak, sengon), e) agriculture dry land, food crops (upland rice, maize, soybean), horticulture (mango), and perennial crops (sugarcane and sengon), (f) dry land agriculture, perennial crops (sugarcane and sengon) and food crops ( upland rice, maize, and peanuts), (g) dry land agriculture, annual crops/plantations with sengon commodities, (h) brackish water fishery (shrimp or milkfish pond), (i) wetland forest as a buffer zone, and (j) dry land forest as a conservation zone. The benefit of this research is as information material related to future regional agricultural development planning based on agricultural commodities in each agroecological zone in Eastern Cirebon Regency. Keywords: zoning, superior commodity, agroecological zone

Land use balance determination using satellite imagery and geographic information system: case study in South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia

This study was conducted to produce a GIS-based land use/land cover (LULC) balance map for a certain period as a reference for policymakers in planning their future regional development. This study also measures supervised classification accuracy based on remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) integration with field conditions. In June 2005 satellite imagery 7 ETM+ was used as asset maps to assess land-use changes (LUC). Although in March 2019, the liability maps used satellite imagery 8 OLI/TIRS. Methods analysis consists of pre-image processing, image interpretation, random point, field check, and accuracy assessment. The image processing results were overlaid with an Indonesian topographic map to draw a LULC balance map. The findings indicate that in June 2005 and March 2019, each LULC had an assessment accuracy value of 82% and 86%, with a predicted assessment accuracy value of 18.05% and 20.50%, respectively. These findings are checked to determine the suitability performance of field-based imaging approaches based on the Cohen Kappa coefficient criteria of 0.45 and 0.48 for June 2005 and March 2019. Based on these results, the image processing precision and suitability were excellent since they are more than 80% and satisfy the Cohen Kappa performance criterion. Furthermore, geospatial data on the LULC balance map is essential as a guide for planners and decision-makers to plan their regional development.

텍스트 네트워크 분석을 활용한 공공주도 지역관광 개발사업 추진 동향 분석

This study was conducted to diagnose the overall trends and problems of local tourism development projects, which have been promoted under public initiative for the past 10 years, and to seek implications for future regional tourism development projects on a reflective basis. The culture and tourism resource development projects of Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism was analyzed through the text network analysis. The trends of major projects were identified and visualized as network maps. The results showed that many hardware and software projects have been carried out under the themes of ‘culture’, ‘theme’, ‘ecology’, ‘experience’, and ‘history.’ In addition, 'road' related projects have been sporadically developed by a number of similar types of overlapping projects. Meanwhile, by analyzing the connection between 'park' and 'culture', which have the highest frequency and centrality, it was confirmed that 'park' is connected with nature-oriented keywords and 'culture' is connected with comprehensive keywords. Finally, based on the results of the research, we provided suggestions for efficient public-led regional tourism development projects in the future, including a distinctive tourism development plan with regional and topical differentiation and the selection of specific and clear project names.

Patents as an indicator of the future development of individual region

In today’s world full of changes, whether the advent of new technologies that are authoritative and will be a trend for many economic sectors or impact Covid epidemic whose effects are still unaware can be sure that the changes in consumer preferences and aggregate demand and increasingly more competition between the largest economies in geographical terms, all this puts more importance on research and development. It is expected a new impetus in the field of patents that will respond to new impulses from the market.Monitor the development of patents over the last year in the broader perspective implies growth or decline in individual industries and economies, are interesting differences in the intensity of new know-how even within different regions of the world.

基于MODIS NDVI的长江中游区域植被动态及与气候因子的关系

基于1999-2015年的MODIS NDVI时间序列遥感数据，应用趋势分析、变异系数、重标极差分析和偏相关分析等方法，分析了长江中游的植被时空变化特征及其与气象因子的关系。结果表明，长江中游地区NDVI均值总体上呈上升趋势（从0.72增加到0.80）。从空间分布来看，NDVI低值区域（0.1-0.5）占1.40%，高值区域（>0.7）占87.15%；NDVI空间格局呈"西高东低、北高南低"的分布特征，低值区域表现为以三省省会城市为中心向外辐射。Hurst指数显示，研究区大部分区域（60.54%）的NDVI变化趋势具有不确定性，持续性改善区域（34.78%）主要分布在西部山地区，持续性退化区域（3.26%）主要分布在人类活动频繁的较发达城市区域。在年际尺度上，研究区NDVI与各气象因子关系均不显著；月际尺度上，NDVI与降水、相对湿度和日照时数显著相关，降水和日照时数有明显的时滞性。区域内NDVI动态趋势以不确定性发展为主，城市群周边NDVI呈现持续退化的区域应该引起关注。;The middle reaches of the Yangtze River (including Hubei, Hunan, and Jiangxi Province) and the Central Triangle City Grop are located in the center of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and are one of the key national ecological secrity areas. The dynamic change of vegetation is affected by geographical environment and climate change, which is closely related to the future regional sustainable development. Based on MODIS NDVI time series remote sensing data from 1999 to 2015, the paper analyzed the dynamic characteristics of vegetation and its relationship with climatice factors in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 1999 to 2015 by applyingtrend analysis, coefficient of variation, rescaled range analysis, and partial correlation analysis, etc. The results showed that the average value of NDVI in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River showed an overall upward trend (increased from 0.72 to 0.80). From the perspective of spatial distribution, the low-value area of NDVI (0.1-0.5) was 1.40%, and the high-value area (>0.7) accounted for 87.15%, overall pattern of NDVI was high in the west and and north region and low in the east and south region. The low-value areas were radiated outward from the capital cities of the three provinces. Based on hurst index, the changing trend of NDVI was uncertain in most areas (60.54%) of the study area. The continuous improvement area (34.78%) was mainly distributed in the western mountain area, and the continuous degradation area (3.26%) was mainly distributed in the more developed urban areas with frequent human activities. On the interannual scale, no significant relationship between the NDVI and the meteorological factors were observed. From the correlation between vegetation and climate factors, the relationship between NDVI and meteorological factors was not significant on the interannual scale; on the monthly scale, precipitation, relative humidity and sunshine hours were the main factors affecting NDVI change, and precipitation and sunshine hours had obvious time lag; on the spatial correlation, the area of positive correlation between vegetation change and temperature and precipitation was larger than that of negative correlation, and the area of positive correlation with relative humidity was larger than that of negative correlation The area with negative correlation to humidity and sunshine hours was larger than that with positive correlation. The dynamic trend of NDVI in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River was mainly uncertain, and the regions around the urban agglomerations showing continuous degradation of NDVI should be concerned.