Future-oriented Technology Analysis Research Articles

An integrated FTA and games: exploring a strategic framework for developing the future

PurposeThe main objective of this research was to combine the integration between two fields of knowledge – future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) and games. This study aims to capture the stakeholders’ actions and decision-making in a procedural, interactive and collaborative way to find a vision of the future.Design/methodology/approachThe framework was designed from a literature review on the related research topics, exploring elements and methods, also how we brought the two fields together. The framework was structured in four steps: exploring – deciding – matching – evaluating. For each phase, deep reflections were described to understand the current situation, identify essential future issues and provide recommendations for action.FindingsOne attractive aspect of the FTA-games is the characteristics of each field but combined made it possible to evaluate future developments and trends. The elements present in games can boost FTA activities through interaction, engagement, experiences, collaboration and motivation, among other elements. Systematically, we seek to ensure traceability by identifying challenges, solutions, execution and results achieved and using tools and elements that make prospecting practical.Originality/valueThis article systematizes the connection between two fields in the form of a framework. At each stage of the framework, participants and strategists are challenged to seek solutions to future challenges, allowing these participants to engage in a common cause and make actions tangible. Game elements can be shaped to explore new avenues in FTA activities, as they are used in games in specific subject domains. These fields tend to be fragmented and are not integrated.

Supporting distributed and integrated execution of future‐oriented technology analysis

AbstractLarge organizations usually spread their research and development (R&D) around the world, hindering coordination efforts when performing future‐oriented technology analysis (FTA) studies. FTA is commonly used in R&D planning, especially on research prioritization. Therefore, we developed an FTA framework for large and geographically spread organizations, named Tiamat. The Tiamat framework is composed of a simplified organization model, which focuses on internal and external interactions during FTA, and an FTA process, which indicates the steps performed by the decision‐maker need until the delivery of the FTA final report from the organization. Based on the Tiamat framework, we developed the Tiamat software, a modular tool that implements generic FTA using the concept of workflows of FTA methods. Thus, we describe the architecture and collaboration aspects of the Tiamat software. The Tiamat framework (i.e., model and process) and the Tiamat software were applied in real situations to evaluate its FTA support capability. Besides, we show non‐FTA uses of the Tiamat software to showcase its flexibility. Among the contributions, we highlight the use of the Tiamat framework in the management of a standardized FTA process, based on the concept of workflows. The framework was developed to be easily adapted to many types of organizations, such as businesses, universities, and public institutions, either civil or military. The Tiamat software has shown to be capable to support distributed and local FTA studies, as well non‐FTA studies.

Analyzing Industry 4.0 trends through the Technology Roadmapping Method

Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) has been widely used in organizations to support the management decision-making process with emphasis on forecasting the timing, diffusion, and life cycle of technologies. The concept of Industry 4.0, understood as the connection between machines, systems, and assets to create intelligent networks that will help in productive control, introduces several technological innovations in the fields of automation, control, and information technology aimed at manufacturing processes. In this work, we use the Technology Roadmapping Method (TRM) to better understand the main issues on Industry 4.0 and the consequences and developments in future scenarios for the industrial sector.

An assessment of technology forecasting: Revisiting earlier analyses on dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs)

The increasingly uncertain dynamics of technological change pose special challenges to traditional technology forecasting tools, which facilitates future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) tools to support the policy processes in the fields of science, technology & innovation (ST&I) and the management of technology (MOT), rather than merely forecasting incremental advances via analyses of continuous trends. Dye-sensitized solar cells are a promising third-generation photovoltaic technology that can add functionality and lower costs to enhance the value proposition of solar power generation in the early years of the 21st century. Through a series of technological forecasting studies analyzing the R&D patterns and trends in Dye-sensitized solar cells technology over the past several years, we have come to realize that validating previous forecasts is useful for improving ST&I policy processes. Yet, rarely do we revisit forecasts or projections to ascertain how well they fared. Moreover, few studies pay much attention to assessing FTA techniques. In this paper, we compare recent technology activities with previous forecasts to reveal the influencing factors that led to differences between past predictions and actual performance. Beyond our main aim of checking accuracy, in this paper we also wish to gain some sense of how valid those studies were and whether they proved useful to others in some ways.

Mapping the Radical Innovations in Food Industry: A Text Mining Study

The article presents the results of the study of radical innovations in the global food industry which were obtained through semantic analysis of heterogeneous unstructured text data sources by applying innovative big data text mining system. The approach used allows performing rapid, yet comprehensive aggregation of the whole polyphony of existing knowledge of the technology development in any sector for traditional foresight, future oriented technology analysis, and horizon scanning studies. The sources for the analysis include research papers, patent applications with both full-text data and additional structured metadata, analytical reports by main international organizations and national key players, various media and news resources, including all the major technology innovation, disruption and venture capital news websites. Their processing with an introduced approach for trend- and technology-mapping helps to identify ongoing and emerging technology-related trends, weak signals on possible scientific breakthroughs in the global food industry, including most promising startup strategies and food innovation controversies. This kind of analysis can be performed on a regular basis owing to constant accumulation of textual data and serve as a framework for constant science and technology (S&T) monitoring for early warning on changing technology landscape and its implications on agriculture and food markets.

The role of future-oriented technology analysis in e-Government: a systematic review

During the last three decades, many governments have incorporated Information and Communication Technologies in their internal and external processes, a phenomenon widely known as electronic government (e-Government). Rationales for e-Government include increasing public services’ efficiency, speed, transparency, accountability, etc., and enhancing relations between government and stakeholders (citizens, businesses, third sector organisations). e-Government programmes are large-scale innovation projects; and Future-oriented Technology Analysis, FTA, is often used in the design of public policies in science, technology and innovation. FTA tools allow for systematic appraisal of potential challenges, opportunities, and threats, and thus informing the design of long-term strategies. The aim of this paper is to examine what a systematic literature review tells us about the application of FTA to support e-Government planning, implementation or evaluation. The review confirms that FTA played a role in supporting some e-Government initiatives, especially in their planning stages. However, few relevant exercises of this sort are reported in the English language, though the e-Government literature itself in that language- is voluminous. Previous researchers often attribute weaknesses in e-Government efforts to deficiencies in vision and strategic planning. Hopefully, this review can encourage both FTA and e-Government practitioners to apply FTA to e-Government development. This suggests that there is both opportunity and need to take greater advantage of FTA in this field.

Big-Data-Augmented Approach to Emerging Technologies Identification: Case of Agriculture and Food Sector

The paper discloses a new approach to emerging technologies identification, which strongly relies on capacity of big data analysis, namely text mining augmented by syntactic analysis techniques. It discusses the wide context of the task of identifying emerging technologies in a systemic and timely manner, including its place in the methodology of foresight and future-oriented technology analysis, its use in horizon scanning exercises, as well as its relation to the field of technology landscape mapping and tech mining. The concepts of technology, emerging technology, disruptive technology and other related terms are assessed from the semantic point of view. Existing approaches to technology identification and technology landscape mapping (in wide sense, including entity linking and ontology-building for the purposes of effective STI policy) are discussed, and shortcomings of currently available studies on emerging technologies in agriculture and food sector (A&F) are analyzed. The opportunities of the new big-data-augmented methodology are shown in comparison to existing results, both globally and in Russia. As one of the practical results of the study, the integrated ontology of currently emerging technologies in A&F sector is introduced. The directions and possible criteria of further enhancement and refinement of proposed methodology are contemplated, with special attention to use of bigger volumes of data, machine learning and ontology-mining / entity linking techniques for the maximum possible automation of the analytical work in the discussed field. The practical implication of the new approach in terms of its effectiveness and efficiency for evidence-based STI policy and corporate strategic planning are shortly summed up as well.

Future-Oriented Technology Assessment

The purpose of this paper is to reflect onthe concept of Future-Oriented Technology Assessment (FOTA) as a particular form of Technology Assessment (TA) which is focused less on risk assessment and more on the innovation governance with regards to the emerging technologies. In the article the author describes a conceptual system comprising Future-Oriented Technology Assessment (FTA), Future-Oriented Technology Analysis and Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI). The deliberations are based on the literature review, bibliometrics and the logical construction method. The paper is expected to provide grounding for further research on the objectives, methods, stakeholders, results and best practices of Future-Oriented Technology Assessment. In the context of the rising importance of the Responsible Research and Innovation idea, Future-Oriented Technology Assessment is discussed as a potentially effective tool to pursue policy goals within RRI agenda.

Development trajectory and research themes of foresight

This study integrates the edge-betweenness clustering technique and key-route main path analysis to analyse the ‘broad foresight’ literature. We retrieve the relevant papers from the Thomson Reuters Web of Science databases and construct the citation network among them. The edge-betweenness clustering identifies six research groups in the ‘broad foresight’ literature. Three major research groups and their major research themes are ‘technology foresight’, ‘futures studies’, and ‘technology forecasting’. The other three are ‘scenario analysis’, ‘future-oriented technology analysis (FTA)’, and ‘technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA)’. We apply main path analysis to explore the overall development trajectory and the linkage among different research groups. We believe that the results are valuable for those who are interested in comprehending the overall development picture of ‘broad foresight’. The approach used herein is also applicable to other fields.

Enabling technologies, lifecycle transitions, and industrial systems in technology foresight: Insights from advanced materials FTA

This paper investigates opportunities to enhance Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) of emerging technologies within innovation systems. We address key challenges faced by policymakers developing innovation strategies for emerging technologies. In particular, we explore ways that FTA might be structured to investigate the complex innovation system journeys of novel technologies as they are developed, diffused, and deployed. In doing this, we draw on concepts from technology and operations management and related literatures to more carefully characterise the: (1) ‘technical infrastrucutre’ required to develop emerging technologies; (2) key technology transitions involved in diffusion; and (3) complex industrial value networks into which they may eventually get deployed.We investigate the extent to which these categories are already used within national technology foresight exercises. In particular, we review over 240 international FTA-related policy, strategy, and analysis documents for ‘advanced materials’. We find that – although generally used inconsistently and unsystematically within FTA – these categories repeatedly emerge as important elements in many policies, strategies, and underpinning foresight exercises. We conclude by arguing that these categories should be carefully considered in initial FTA design. And that, by doing so, FTA exercises may better reveal potential ‘innovation system failures’ and help policymakers coordinate policy actions in response.

INNOVATIVE CLASSIFICATION OF METHODS OF THE FUTURE-ORIENTED TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS

In the era characterized by significant dynamics of the environment traditional methods of anticipating the future, assuming the immutability of the factors affecting the forecasted phenomenon, may be in the long term ineffective. The modern approach of predicting the future of technology, taking into account the multidimensionality of the environment, is, among other things, the Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA). Designing the FTA research procedure is a complex process, both in organizational and methodological terms. The catalogue of methods that can be used in this process is extensive and constantly open. However, in the source literature the rules for the selection of methods appropriate for the type of research were not specified. The ways of combining methods in the research process were also missing. The main aim of this article was to present the author’s classification of methods of future-oriented technology analysis and indicate the possibilities of its application. In the text, using statistical methods and artificial neural networks, the classification of methods with the potential of exploitation in prospective technology analysis was carried out. Each of the received classes was analysed, the characteristics of particular groups of methods were selected, and authorial names characterizing the given classes were chosen. According to the author, the application of the proposed classification of methods of future-oriented technology analysis facilitates the design of the FTA research process. It will contribute to the systematization and standardization of the manner of selection of research methods. It will also allow for the selection of complementary methods.

Mental time travel in foresight processes—Cases and applications

Mental time travel can be described as a method of guiding the participants of a workshop into a picture or a whole series of pictures of the future. This should be thought of as a movie rather than static images and includes emotions. Mental time travel is still a new method in foresight processes, in generating futures, futures research or future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) in general, and is only rarely used to open up the minds of participants at the beginning of workshops so that their thinking does not remain fixed in the past or the present. Time travelling can be applied to different cases and at different stages of a foresight process (phases of strategic intelligence gathering, sense-making or even implementation), e.g. participants are also able to think disruptively in new pictures instead of just extrapolating from the past.Clinical and psychological studies do not yet exist for this kind of time travel, but first experiences from very different foresight processes are available. This paper presents the experiences gained from six national and international foresight cases, in which time travel was applied. Different ways of performing it are reported and set in the context of the specific foresight process concepts. Experiences are shared by examining the lessons learned and the pros and cons of this new method, so that the organizers of foresight processes can better assess how the method could fit their specific context, objectives, method mix and participants.

Implementing smart specialisation roadmaps in Lithuania: Lost in translation?

The study of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) and how they translate into policy decisions and practice has gained pace in the last decade. In this paper, we present a case study on the application of FTA methods for entrepreneurial discovery and the design of S3 policy mixes in Lithuania, where a three-staged FTA process was adopted for defining the country's smart specialisation (S3) priorities and their implementation strategies. We unpack the methodological assumptions underpinning the process and show how the design of the policy mixes in the roadmaps moved away from proposed guidelines. Focusing on the last stage which involved the development of roadmaps for the implementation of selected S3 priorities, our study suggests that the participatory FTA approach encouraged joint ownership of the selected priorities, fostered trans-sectoral dialogue, and entrepreneurial learning. Through the reflective gaze of three alternative scenarios and the broad outlooks of the implementation of the S3 roadmaps, evaluation and key learnings from the project are presented.

FORWARD-LOOKING PLANNING OF TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT

The main aim of this article is to adapt the Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) to prospective planning of technology development. Firstly, the article presents the assumptions, methods and idea, as well as the concept of the FTA method. Moreover, selected publications on the use of this method were analysed. Then, an original, base model of forward-looking planning of technology development was constructed and presented. The end result of this process will be the development of the localized in time, presented in graphic form, action plan referred to as the route of technology development. Basing on the literature review and the research projects a preliminary route of development of arbitrarily chosen technology was also built and presented.

The evolution of the use of Foresight methods: a scientometric analysis of global FTA research output

An increasing number of quantitative and qualitative methods have been used for future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) to develop understanding of situations, enable creativity, engage experts, and provide interaction. FTA practitioners have used frequently one or a suitable mixture of these methods for their activities. Changing policy and strategy making contexts as well as enabling technologies increased the need and possibility for performing adaptive Foresight studies in order to improve decision making about the future and using making better use of limited resources. This study performs a scientometric analysis of the publications in the major FTA journals with the aim of understanding the dynamics of using Foresight methods across time. Among the other branches of FTA, including forecasting, futures, and technology assessment, a special emphasis is given on Foresight as a systematic and inclusive way of exploring long term futures, developing visions and formulating policies for action. The study aims at detecting the key Trends and Weak Signals regarding the use of existing methods and emerging ones with potential uses for Foresight activities. Further implications will be achieved with the generation of networks for quantitative and qualitative methods. This will demonstrate the most frequently combined Foresight methods by researchers and practitioners. Where possible the methods will also be cross-fertilised with the key thematic areas to illustrate the relationships between policy domains and industrial sectors covered by the scope of study with methodological choice. This output is considered to be taken as a methodological guide for any researchers, practitioners or policy makers, who might embark upon or involved in a Foresight activity. Further outputs of the study will include the identification of centres of excellence in the use of Foresight methods and collaboration networks between countries, institutions and policy domains. Overall, the paper demonstrates how scientometric tools can be used to understand the dynamics of evolution in a research field. Thus, it provides an overview of the use of methods in Foresight, and how it is distinguished from the other FTA activities; the evolutionary characteristics of methodological design and factors influencing the choice of methods; and finally a discussion on the future potentials for new cutting-edge approaches.

FTA supporting effective priority setting in multi-lateral research programme cooperation: The case of EU–Russia S&T cooperation

Common global societal challenges require common answers, also in programming research to help offer those answers. This paper addresses the issue of priority setting for research programming in a multi-layered and multilateral context, taking into account the interests of diverse stakeholder groups. It uses a structured FTA approach to offer guidance for the design of foresight exercises supporting such priority setting, drawing on the case of S&T cooperation between EU Member States, countries associated to the FP7, and Russia. A framework is proposed for thematic priority setting through the application of Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) and for achieving clear policy impacts by including principles for impact optimisation. A combination of foresight methodologies such as expert workshops, a Delphi survey, roadmapping elements, and prioritisation techniques was applied to select relevant topics for a joint research call. The paper shows how foresight can be embedded in a multilateral S&T programme cooperation using a set of coordination dimensions and design principles. Strategies for achieving policy impact and for communicating foresight results are also outlined. Future research is proposed to further improve guidance to facilitate more global research programme cooperation in the future to jointly address global challenges.

Quantitative Analysis of Technology Futures: A Review of Techniques, Uses and Characteristics.

A variety of quantitative techniques have been used in the past in Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA). In recent years, increased computational power and algorithms, web-based searching, and data availability have led to the emergence of new techniques that are potentially useful for foresight and forecasting. As a result, there is now a wide palette of techniques that might be used in FTA exercises. However, it is often unclear how they differ, when the use of a techniques is appropriate, what type of insights it may yield, and how they can be combined. This article reviews and qualifies quantitative methods for FTA in order to help users to make choices among alternative techniques, including new techniques that have not been integrated yet in the FTA literature and practice. We first provide a working definition of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) and discuss its role, uses, and popularity over recent decades. Second, we select 22 FTA techniques identified as the most important quantitative FTA techniques and then we review these techniques, discuss their main contexts and uses, and classify them into groups with common characteristics, positioning them along four key dimensions: descriptive/prescriptive; extrapolative/normative; data gathering/inference; and forecasting/foresight.

The roles of FTA in improving performance measurement systems to enable alignment between business strategy and operations: Insights from three practical cases

Despite the growing number of publications on firms’ performance measurement systems (PMS), consensus has not yet been achieved on the steps for their implementation within an organisation. Against this background the authors report the lessons learnt in developing and testing a new PMS that they have devised advancing on the Balance Scorecard (BSC) approach. In reviewing three cases in which their system was applied, they highlight that the inclusion of Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) would have prevented some of the failures experienced. FTA is seen as crucial in linking strategy and operations with a long-term vision of where a firm sees itself in the future. In this regard, FTA holds the promise to embed critical aspects for jointly shaping common directions to follow across a firm's value chain. These include the notion of stakeholder involvement in decision processes of mutual appreciation and a shared understanding of stakeholders’ views as well as of joint experimentation and mutual learning. The authors conclude by highlighting specific ways in which FTA can be integrated in the PMS proposed.

Foresight for a responsible future with ICT

The ACM Code of Ethics asserts that computing professionals have an ethical responsibility to minimize the negative consequences of information and communication technologies (ICT). Negative consequences are rarely intended, but they can often be foreseen with careful sociotechnical analysis in advance of system building. Motivated by an interest in extremely complex sociotechnical contexts (e.g., mortgage lending and automated trading) where ICT appears to be having negative consequences in addition to many benefits, this paper identifies and evaluates future-oriented problem analysis and solution design tools in three potentially relevant literatures: 1) ICT ethics, 2) environmental sustainability, and 3) technology hazards. Several promising future-oriented technology analysis techniques (e.g., anticipatory technology ethics, technology roadmapping, morphological analysis, and control structure analysis) were found and are discussed in this paper, but much work remains to be done to customize them, integrate them, and codify them for use in education and high-quality IS research on very complex sociotechnical contexts like the global financial network.

Future-Oriented Technology Analysis to Support Decision-Making in Meeting Global Challenges

Experiences in anticipation from the European organisation JRC-IPTS allow to draw conclu sions for the use of anticipat ory intelligence in support of policy-making.