Future Migration Research Articles

The Social Inclusion of Migrants Between Policy and Practice: Lessons from Uruguay

Extant research on international migration in English overwhelmingly focuses on migration to and in Europe and North America. Yet major migration movements occur outside of these regions. This mismatch leads to a neglect of the multi-faceted migration dynamics beyond the global North. Uruguay is a case in point for two reasons. First, the country has become both a significant destination for inter-regional movements and a crucial albeit unexpected stop along an extended international route. Second, both the country's migration policies and research agenda have promptly responded to the surge in migration by examining recent migrants’ quality of life and issues of social inclusion. In this country report, we use the hitherto understudied case of Uruguay as an illustrative example to showcase potential policy and scholarship lessons for international migration. We argue that Uruguay constitutes an important case for future migration scholarship and policy outlook, because it enhances our understanding of how host countries can promote migrants’ social inclusion and well-being, even in the face of significant structural inequalities affecting both native and migrant populations. Hence, Uruguay's experiences against the backdrop of recent migration in-flows have implications for migration scholarship and policy in regional (Latin America and Caribbean) and global contexts.

Integrating a choice experiment into an agent-based model to simulate climate-change induced migration: The case of the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam

Forecasting the future impact of climate change on migration is difficult, for many reasons, including the interactive and dynamic nature of many decisions and the heterogeneity of behavior. One popular solution, agent-based models (ABM) cope well with dynamics and heterogeneity, but often lack rigorous foundations in terms of individual behavior. Moreover, given limited exposure to actual climate change, it can be a challenge to build adequate behavioral models of migration choice based on historical data. To tackle this issue, we build an ABM of future migration using a bespoke choice experiment (CE) designed to examine intention to migrate among farmers living in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). In the CE, respondents are asked to make migration choices for scenarios constructed using six attributes: drought intensity, flood frequency, income gain from migration, migration networks, neighbors' choice, and crop choice restriction. The simulation runs to 2050 and is based on two scenarios of future global emissions of greenhouse gases—Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5. The results suggest potentially high levels of migration as a result of climate change and the particular importance of positive feedback from pre-existing migration and neighbor's choices. The results also suggest that crop-restriction regulations have a significant impact on migration for coastal provinces of VMD. Finally, we find that migration drivers vary significantly across provinces, which suggests the policymakers point to targeted action for each province. In summary, the study demonstrates how integrating CE into ABM can foster the predictive modeling of climate-induced migration.

Forced displacement from Ukraine due to Russia’s 2022 invasion and the likelihood of a new wave of emigration

ABSTRACT Russia's war against Ukraine caused the massive forced displacements. More than a third of the Ukrainian population left their homes, and many Ukrainians went abroad. Although the future migration prospects remain uncertain, the analysis of socio-demographic characteristics of the displaced persons, the traditions of labor migration among Ukrainians can facilitate the estimation of possible directions in the development of migration situation. The available data prompts the conclusion that a part of the refugees will decide in favor of a prolonged residence abroad, another part will return to their homeland, while the labor migration abroad will become a widespread practice. The volume and significance of these three migration tendencies depend on the war and post-war reconstruction results, which are impossible to envisage. However, the management of each of the three prospects concerning the migration of Ukrainians will require the development of a different political approach and specific targeted measures.

Nigeria Pattern of Migration: Issues on Human Sustainable Development

Aconventional interpretation on Nigerians’ migration in the 21stCentury emphasizes the acceleration and geo-spatial diversification of Nigerians from their home country to other African Countries, Europe, Asia and North America portraying a South-North Migration. Nigeria, like other Africa countries, is often seen and regarded as a country entangled with the problem of mass migration and displacement resulting from poverty, violent conflict, bad governance, insurgency and the dilapidating environmental condition. This perception, to an extent, may likely be untrue when theoretically informed researchis conducted on the pattern of migration in Nigeria. Contradicting the common ideological spread, the pattern of internal and international migration in Nigeria solely does not rest on poverty, conflict and environmental factors, but driven by a prospect for development and social transformation to increase Nigerians’ capability to contribute towards their country’s sustainable development and as such sustain future migration aspiration of the people. This paper x-rays, from a sociological perspective, the pattern, trends and determinant of migration in Nigeria. Relying majorly on secondary information sources, relevant literature on Africa Migration, with Nigeria in mind, were reviewed and criticized bringing out the overlapping knowledge gap in the literature. The review process specifically focused on varied migration process in terms of the scale, patternand reasons for migration. The precise operational model that justifies the pattern of migration in Nigeria was reviewed and applied to the varied factors responsible for migration. The paper reveals that the diversification of migration streams, changingcause of migration, the predominance of certain categories of migration such as brain-drain all had significant consequence on Nigeria’s sustainable development. The paper concluded that in as much as we want internal and international migration tobe discouraged; the responsibility is laid on government to meet the trans-migration demands ofNigerians.

Sea level rise implications on future inland migration of coastal wetlands

Coastal wetlands provide essential ecosystem functions, including coastal protection, improvement in water quality and carbon sequestration, which are threatened due to sea level rise (SLR) – a well-documented aspect of anthropogenic climate change. While there are numerous articles on SLR impacts on wetlands, data about the interactions between natural or human-made barriers and future SLR projections e.g. coastal squeeze are still sparse. If wetlands are bounded by natural formations or human-made structures, coastal wetlands could be permanently lost in a warming climate. Here we delineate impacts of SLR on wetland inland migration under a changing climate in six locations around the world with a particular focus on the consequences of human-made structures along coastlines in Europe, specifically along the largest continuous coastal wetland system in the world, the Wadden Sea. Various locations around the world (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia and Australia) were chosen to analyze the impacts of regional SLR on wetland dynamics under climate change scenario. Our results show that places like Bangladesh, India and Myanmar have much larger areas at risk with nearly 10% of their coastal wetlands, whereas the wetlands in northern Australia seem to have a low area at risk to be lost with not even 1%. For the North Sea coast, wetlands where we had access to data from human-made infrastructure, we show that due to the built infrastructure, the wetland areas do not have the opportunity to evolve landward and hence, are expected to disappear permanently.

Forever legacies? Profiling historical PFAS contamination and current influence on groundwater used for drinking water

A wide range of PFAS residues were studied in an aquifer used for drinking water production which was affected by historical PFAS contamination from a landfill and military camp. Samples were taken at three monitoring and four pumping wells at different depths ranging from 33 to 147 m below the land surface and analysed for a series of 53 PFAS (C2-C14) and PFAS precursors (C4-C24). A comparison of results to earlier research from 2013, with a more limited range of PFAS, showed decreasing concentrations and migration of PFAS with increasing depth and distance from the contamination source.The PFAS profile and branched/linear isomer ratio are used as source characterization tools. The landfill was confirmed to contaminate the groundwater in both monitoring wells, while the military camp was indicated as a probable source for PFAS observed in the deep sampling points of one of the monitoring wells. Pumping wells used to produce drinking water are not yet affected by these two PFAS sources. In one of the four sampled pumping wells, a different PFAS profile and isomer pattern was observed, which indicated a different but yet unknown source.This work shows the necessity of implementing regular screening to identify potential (historical) PFAS sources to be able to prevent future contaminant migration nearby and towards drinking water abstraction wells.

Levelling the playing field for the international migration of nurses: the India English Language Programme

BackgroundThis article presents evaluation findings of the India English Language Programme, an innovative programme aimed at providing Indian nurses with an opportunity to participate in an ethical and mutually beneficial learning programme aimed at supporting migration into the United Kingdom’s National Health Service (NHS). The programme provided 249 Indian nurses wishing to migrate to the NHS on an ‘earn, learn, and return’ basis with funding to support English language learning and accreditation sufficient to apply for Nursing and Midwifery Council (NMC) registration. The Programme provided English language training and pastoral support to candidates, in addition to the availability of remedial training and examination entry for those not meeting NMC proficiency requirements on their first attempt.MethodsDescriptive statistical analysis of programme examination results and cost-effectiveness analysis is presented to demonstrate programme outputs and outcomes. Descriptive economic analysis of programme costings is presented alongside programme results to investigate the value-for-money provided by this programme.ResultsA total of 89 nurses were successful in meeting NMC proficiency requirements, representing a pass rate of 40%. Those undertaking OET training and examination(s) were more successful, compared to those undertaking British Council provision, with over half of candidates passing at the required level. This equates to an overall programme cost-per-pass of £4139 and represents a model to support health worker migration, in line with WHO guidelines, delivering individual learning and development, mutual health system gain, and value-for-money.ConclusionsTaking place during the coronavirus pandemic, the programme evidences the effective delivery of online English language training to support health worker migration during a highly disruptive period for global health. This programme demonstrates an ethical and mutually beneficial pathway for English language improvement amongst internationally educated nurses to facilitate migration to and global health learning in the NHS. It provides a template through which healthcare leaders and nurse educators, working in policy and practice environments in the NHS and other English-speaking countries, can design future ethical health worker migration and training programmes to strengthen the global healthcare workforce.

The Influence of Migration Patterns on Regional Demographic Development in Germany

Political decision-making related to future challenges, for example in the fields of medical care, the housing market or education highly depend on valid estimates of the future population size and structure. However, such developments are usually heterogeneous throughout a country making subnational projections necessary. It is well-known that these regional differences are highly influenced by both internal and external migration processes. In this paper, we investigate the consequences of different migration assumptions on regional development in Germany using a spatial dynamic microsimulation. We find that migration assumptions have a strong direct influence on the future population and composition at the regional level and, therefore, require special attention. Depending on the scenario selected, very different socio-demographic trends may emerge in specific districts or even district types. We also demonstrate that migration assumptions affect non-demographic indicators such as the participation rate, albeit to a lesser extent. The findings are relevant to understanding the sensitivity of population projections to migration assumptions both on the national and regional level. This also paves the way to analyze how potential political interventions behave under those assumed future migration processes.

Healthcare in cumulatively caused migration: Hong Kong residents’ perceived Mainland healthcare quality and migration intentions in the Greater Bay Area, China

The complex role of healthcare in migration has not been fully understood in existing studies, which are largely limited to the simple examination of migration behaviors associated with the uneven distribution of healthcare services. This study provides a more nuanced understanding by considering the subjective dimension of healthcare quality as an important part of the cumulative causation of migration thesis. We argue that migration behaviors and perceived healthcare quality in the destination are mutually constitutive, entailing a continuous reproduction process of migrations with heterogeneous patterns across social groups. These ideas are explored in the context of the Greater Bay Area, wherein Mainland healthcare quality has long been a major concern for Hong Kong residents' migration decisions. Based on structural equation modeling analysis of 3,500 responses from a survey of Hong Kong residents conducted in 2020, we found significant conditional mediating effects of perceived Mainland healthcare quality in reproducing HK-to-Mainland migrations. Recent living experiences and migration networks in Mainland are associated with positive perceptions of Mainland healthcare quality, which further enhance future migration intentions. This effect was uneven among HK residents and conditional upon individuals’ socio-economic status – weakened by a higher education level while non-linearly affected by household incomes. This study enriches the understanding of healthcare-impacted migrations and foregrounds the fundamental role of social infrastructure in facilitating and consolidating regional development.

Understanding the Housing Pathways and Migration Plans of Young Talents in Metropolises–A Case Study of Shenzhen

ABSTRACT In the context of skyrocketing house prices and fierce competition for talents between cities, this study explores the housing pathways of young talents and their future migration plans in Shenzhen, China. Using the housing pathways approach and Bourdieu’s theory of practice with three concepts, this study uncovers how structural factors and the often-overlooked agency factors together influence the formation of different housing pathways. Drawing on 18 semi-structured interviews with young talents, four different housing pathways were identified: staying at parents’ home, private renting to owning, talented renting, and progressive private renting. We found that the interaction of habitus and different forms of capital shapes different housing pathways. In addition, young talents following different housing pathways have various future migration plans. This paper sheds new light on the use of the housing pathways approach and Bourdieu’s theory of practice in providing a nuanced understanding of housing and migration behaviour.

How do migration decisions and drivers differ against extreme environmental events?

ABSTRACT Migration is often understood to be a livelihood strategy to cope with the effects of environmental threats and climate change. Yet, the extent to which migration decisions differ due to the type, severity, and frequency of environmental events has been little explored. This paper employs household surveys in southwestern Bangladesh to explore this research gap. A multinominal regression model is used to simulate reported future migration decisions (200 sample households) in the context of both rapid-onset (i.e. cyclone and flood) and slow-onset (salinity, siltation, and riverbank erosion) environmental phenomena. Results show: i) previous disaster experience and increasing conflict in the community motivate migration in the near future in the context of slow-onset phenomena (salinity); (ii) economic strength and self-efficacy increase non-migration intention in both contexts of sudden and slow-onset events; and (iii) the extent and pattern of these influences on migration differ across demographics, including education, religion, and age. Importantly, this analysis shows that the relationship between migration decisions and the type, severity, and frequency of environmental events is influenced by socioeconomic conditions. Therefore, this research supports future adaptation planning specifically tailored to the type and exposure of extreme environmental events.

Deep-learning-generalized data-space inversion and uncertainty quantification framework for accelerating geological CO2 plume migration monitoring

Efficient coupling of high-fidelity simulation models and history-monitored data to predict future migration behavior of CO2 plume is crucial for leakage risk management and assessment during the process of geological CO2 sequestration (GCS). However, the conventional model-based inverse modeling and forecasting procedure generally presents intensive computation-cost due to numerous high-fidelity model simulations and thus hinders its practical applications. We present a novel data-driven direct forecast and uncertainty quantification framework that hybridizes deep convolutional autoencoder and deep residual neural network to represent spatial distribution of subsurface fluid by latent space features and achieve predictions of future fluid dynamic behavior given history-monitored data, respectively. The linear-type data-space inversion approaches based on Bayesian theorem are generalized to non-linear model applications through deep-learning, i.e., referred to as DSI-DL. Compared to the conventional learning-based direct forecast approach (LDFA) that numerous training samples are required to guarantee predictability of the supervised machine-learning models, our proposed DSI-DL employs a data-augmentation strategy to automatically generate sufficient training samples from a relatively small ensemble of high-fidelity model simulations. The performance DSI-DL method is demonstrated on a synthetic 2D models and a practical 3D model for deep saline aquifer GCS applications. The deep-learning surrogate directly predicts the latent features of future spatial CO2 plumes given history-monitored CO2 plumes. Comparisons between LDFA and DSI-DL confirm that the proposed DSI-DL method obtains more robust and better results in predicting future CO2 plume migration, especially when solely a few number of large-scale high-fidelity model simulations is available at hand and large observation errors exist. The proposed deep-learning-based direct forecast approach contributes to an efficient computation framework to manage uncertainty of the long term process of GCS.

Motivation in the dynamics of European youth migration

ABSTRACT In this article, we explore the complexities of the relationships between motivations in the migration process of young Europeans who have returned to their country of origin. We analyze a unique database of over 3,000 returnees, a sub-sample from a larger survey of about 30,000 young people in nine European countries. The findings suggest that there is a link between the motivations for the first migration and those for future migration among this group. Generally, past migration motivations tend to reinforce future migration motivations of a similar nature. By controlling for variables related to geographic space (countries of residence, development profiles of NUTS2 regions, urban profiles of local communities of residence), as well as for several socio-demographic variables and life satisfaction, we can better understand the influence of motivations for past migration on motivations for future migrations. This article extends the internal dynamics of migration approach by combining the idea of individual chains of migration motivations that are extending over-time with the idea of cumulative causation operating at the meso level.

Prediction of 1,4-Dioxane Migration in Groundwater and Evaluation of Remediation Measures in an Illegal Dumping Site Using a 2D-Numerical Model

Illegal dumping sites are usually characterized by complex contamination situations due to the presence of multiple contamination sources. To improve the efficiency of illegal waste dumping site remediation, this study developed a numerical model considering the effects of groundwater levels and hydraulic gradient changes on remediation operations. Using this model, the most likely sources of contamination for 1,4-dioxane at an illegal waste site in Iwate Prefecture, Japan, were successfully identified (including location, amount, and time of occurrence) by reproducing historical monitoring data (from 2010 to 2022) through history matching, and future contaminant migration in groundwater was predicted. In addition, based on quantitative evaluations of the remediation measures, we found that some remediation measures, such as impermeable wall construction, while having some effects on the control of contamination spreading, may accelerate the migration of contaminants off-site due to the change of hydraulic gradient. Therefore, remediation procedures should be more carefully considered for illegal dumping sites based on an understanding of the distribution of contamination sources and hydraulic gradient evolutions.

Evolution trend and hot topic measurement of climate migration research under the influence of climate change

IntroductionGlobal climate change, which is characterized by climate warming, has become one of the most prominent risk problems in society at present. Climate migration brings many accompanying problems to the environment, economy, politics, society, and culture. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the internal relationship between climate change and population migration.MethodsThe data were extracted from the Web of Science core collection database (WOS) and China Knowledge Network database (CNKI). A total of 785 documents and 157 documents in the field of climate migration from 2008 to 2021 were selected as analysis samples. Word frequency analysis, clustering analysis, sudden word detection analysis, and other methods were extensively used to build the evolution trend map of climate migration using CiteSpace visual bibliometric software.ResultsIt is concluded that climate migration research has experienced three stages of development: initial exploration stage (2008-2011), development enrichment stage (2012-2017), and system deepening stage (2018).The hot topics of climate migration include: (1) different types of climate migration research; (2) Quantitative model research on climate migration; (3) Climate justice research. Different types of climate migration include 7 main types: (1) migration caused by sea level rise; (2) Resettlement caused by flood disaster; (3) Migration due to worsening drought; (4) Migration caused by extreme climate events; (5) Voluntary migration due to climate change discomfort; (6) Project resettlement caused by climate change response engineering measures; (7) Migrants whose livelihoods are broken due to climate change.DiscussionThe study points out that climate migration research is an interdisciplinary research field, which needs joint research by scholars from different academic backgrounds. In the future climate migration research, 1) strengthen the prediction ability of climate change population migration model; 2) Make use of China’s beneficial exploration in the migration fields such as engineering resettlement, ecological resettlement and poverty alleviation resettlement to formulate climate migration policies, regulations and strategic planning; 3) Establish a database cloud platform related to climate change and population migration; 4) Strengthen the exchange and cooperation between Chinese researchers in the field of climate migration and international scientific research institutions.

A Grounded Theory of Living in Two Worlds: Torres Strait Islanders’ Experience of Contemporary Migration

ABSTRACT This study explored the resettlement experiences of Torres Strait Islanders who moved to the Australian mainland. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with 11 individuals, using a grounded theory method. Findings suggest that Torres Strait Islander contemporary out-movers are adjusting rather than assimilating to the Australian mainstream culture. The concept of “living in two worlds” required managing the crossing between the obligations of island life and demands and expectations of the mainstream. As people made sense of their experiences, out-movers developed strategies to “manage the crossings” from one world to another- the simpler lifestyle of “island life” that offered a greater sense of certainty and familiarity, and “mainstream” which may present many challenges, competing demands and expectations. While Torres Strait Islander out-movement is internal, there are similarities to international migration experiences, and like other internal movements, this movement tended to go unnoticed. Migration is an important area of social work practice that needs the attention of social workers, particularly with the predicted increases in out-movements that may occur in response to economic and climate-related change. IMPLICATIONS Torres Strait Islander internal migration is absent from social work literature. There is a gap in knowledge of how contemporary migrants experience and make sense of life on the mainland. Social work can learn from this movement to prepare for future migration responding to environmental and economic imperatives, both internally and internationally.

Letter from the editors

Letter from the editors

Drivers of migration intentions in coastal Vietnam under increased flood risk from sea level rise

Elevated flood risk due to sea level rise is expected to increase migration from coastal areas. This presents an enormous policy challenge given the hundreds of millions of people living in low-lying coastal areas globally. Despite its relevance, little empirical research has been done on what drives coastal residents to migrate or stay under increased flood risk. This study aims to improve the knowledge base on this topic by collecting and analyzing unique survey data of flood-prone coastal residents in Central Vietnam. To explain permanent migration intentions under increased flood risk, we present respondents with realistic scenarios of more frequent severe flooding and utilize a theoretical framework that incorporates flood risk indicators as well as key indicators of sustainable livelihoods. Results indicate that flood risk could play a major role in future migration behavior; permanent migration intentions strongly increase under the scenarios of increased flood risk. Several individual characteristics also play an important role in the migration decision. Regression analyses reveal that respondents who implemented in situ flood adaptation, and thereby reduced their flood risk, are less inclined to migrate. Past experiences during flooding such as evacuation or the reception of help from community members or the government are also strong predictors of migration intentions. Of the sustainable livelihood indicators, social capital plays the most important role, where a larger social network inside (outside) the place of residence is negatively (positively) related to migration intentions. We draw lessons from these insights for policymakers aiming to anticipate the challenge of sea level rise-induced migration.

FORECASTING MIGRATION MOVEMENTS IN UKRAINE

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to provide a well-founded analysis and forecasts of future migration events that can significantly affect the further development of Ukraine. Methodology of research. The following methods were used in the research process: analysis and synthesis – to study the object and subject of research; abstract and logical (theoretical generalizations and formulation of conclusions); modeling of the dynamics of time series of external migration of the population of Ukraine. Findings. During the assessment of the migration situation, it was established that it significantly affects the demographic level of the population, especially after February 24, 2022, when an active exodus of the population was observed. According to the UN, as of August 2023, 6.2 million refugees have already left Ukraine. However, according to information from the State Border Guard Service, the number of people who fled the war in Ukraine is 3.2-3.5 million, and there is a threat of a further increase in this number. By building models of future migration events, a projected migration balance was obtained, which shows an increase in the number of people leaving Ukraine. Thus, Ukraine is facing significant demographic losses, which complicates its economic existence and post-war recovery processes. The success of refugee return in the medium and long term depends to a large extent on the end of the armed conflict and the improvement of the social and economic component of society. Ensuring the conditions for the return of Ukrainians from abroad largely depends on effective systemic measures of state regulation. Originality. Peculiarities of migration processes have acquired further development. Mathematical toolkit made it possible to investigate and establish the intensity of population migration, which is caused not only by economic factors, but also by unforeseen circumstances. Practical value. The practical significance of this research work is that Ukraine is facing significant demographic losses, and the results of the study can be used to analyze and predict future migration events. Key words: population migration, migration factors, refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), Russian-Ukrainian war, time series, forecasting.

The Trends in German Foreign Policy in African Countries

Today, Europe pays close attention to its relations with African countries. Germany is the locomotive of the EU and is also building its own policy towards African countries. During the chancellorship of Angela Merkel, several initiatives were proposed aimed at the development of economic relations with Africa. In 2021, Olaf Scholz became the chancellor of Germany. The article examines Germany’s policy towards African countries both before and during the chancellorship of Olaf Scholz. Africa is the key to Europe’s economic sustainability, especially as Europe has continued to separate from Russia economically and politically in the last years. In this context, Africa plays a significant role in meeting Europe’s pressing fossil fuel needs. Despite the European rhetoric to the contrary, in recent decades relations between Africa and Europe have stalled in the paradigm of charity rather than equal partnership. However, Europe now really needs a genuine strategic partnership with African countries in order to be able to negotiate on the energy and climate crisis, prevent future migration crises and compete with geopolitical rivals. The policy of “green energy” is a promising direction of German foreign policy towards the African continent. Against the background of already existing German initiatives towards Africa, the results of recent international summits on climate and the provisions of new initiatives in the field of green energy and climate conservation are considered. All this can become one of the main bridges for strengthening relations between Germany and African countries. In this regard, the article attempts to highlight the main prerequisites for the formation of modern German foreign policy in Africa and attempts to describe the establishment of German-African relations during the chancellorship of Angela Merkel and her successor Olaf Scholz.