The Influence of Migration Patterns on Regional Demographic Development in Germany

Abstract

Political decision-making related to future challenges, for example in the fields of medical care, the housing market or education highly depend on valid estimates of the future population size and structure. However, such developments are usually heterogeneous throughout a country making subnational projections necessary. It is well-known that these regional differences are highly influenced by both internal and external migration processes. In this paper, we investigate the consequences of different migration assumptions on regional development in Germany using a spatial dynamic microsimulation. We find that migration assumptions have a strong direct influence on the future population and composition at the regional level and, therefore, require special attention. Depending on the scenario selected, very different socio-demographic trends may emerge in specific districts or even district types. We also demonstrate that migration assumptions affect non-demographic indicators such as the participation rate, albeit to a lesser extent. The findings are relevant to understanding the sensitivity of population projections to migration assumptions both on the national and regional level. This also paves the way to analyze how potential political interventions behave under those assumed future migration processes.