Forced displacement from Ukraine due to Russia’s 2022 invasion and the likelihood of a new wave of emigration

Abstract

ABSTRACT Russia's war against Ukraine caused the massive forced displacements. More than a third of the Ukrainian population left their homes, and many Ukrainians went abroad. Although the future migration prospects remain uncertain, the analysis of socio-demographic characteristics of the displaced persons, the traditions of labor migration among Ukrainians can facilitate the estimation of possible directions in the development of migration situation. The available data prompts the conclusion that a part of the refugees will decide in favor of a prolonged residence abroad, another part will return to their homeland, while the labor migration abroad will become a widespread practice. The volume and significance of these three migration tendencies depend on the war and post-war reconstruction results, which are impossible to envisage. However, the management of each of the three prospects concerning the migration of Ukrainians will require the development of a different political approach and specific targeted measures.