Future Climate Research Articles

Reconstructing the biological invasion of noxious invasive weed Parthenium hysterophorus and invasion risk assessment in China.

Invasive alien plants (IAPs) present a severe threat to native ecosystems and biodiversity. Comprehending the potential distribution patterns of these plant invaders and their responses to climate change is essential. Parthenium hysterophorus, native to the Americas, has become an aggressively invasive species since its introduction to China in the 1930s. This study aims to collect and reconstruct the historical occurrence and invasion of P. hysterophorus. Using the optimal MaxEnt model, the potential geographical distributions of P. hysterophorus were predicted based on screened species occurrences and environmental variables under the current and three future scenarios in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), and the invasion risk of P. hysterophorus in Chinese cities, croplands, forests, and grasslands was assessed. The results show that: (1) The species initially invaded highly suitable areas and further spread to regions with non-analogous climate conditions. (2) Under the current climatic conditions, the overall potential distribution of P. hysterophorus is characterized by more in the southeast and less in the northwest. Climate variables, including mean annual temperature (bio1), precipitation in the wettest month (bio13), isothermality (bio3), and temperature seasonality (bio4), are the primary factors influencing its distribution. (3) The potential distribution of P. hysterophorus will expand further under future climate scenarios, particularly toward higher latitudes. (4) Forests and crop lands are the areas with the most serious potential invasion risk of P. hysterophorus. Therefore, we suggest that the government should strengthen the monitoring and management of P. hysterophorus to prevent its spread and protect agro-ecosystems and human habitats. Depending on the potential risk areas, measures such as quarantine, removal, and publicity should be taken to mitigate the threat of P. hysterophorus invasion and to raise awareness of P. hysterophorus invasion prevention.

An Evaluation of the Brine Flow in the Upper Part of the Halite Nucleus of the Salar de Atacama (Chile) through an Isotopic Study of δ18O and δ2H

A hydrogeological study of the shallowest part of the halite nucleus of the Salar de Atacama is presented, focusing on the isotopic variability in δ18O and δ2H (SMOW) in the brine. It is observed that intensive brine extraction has induced upward vertical flows from the lower aquifer, which presents with a lighter isotopic composition (δ18O: −0.87‰ to −2.49‰; δ2H: −26.04‰ to −33.25‰), toward the upper aquifer, which has more variable and enriched isotopic values. Among the possible explanations for the lighter isotopic composition of the lower aquifer waters is the influence of paleolakes formed during the wetter periods of the Late Pleistocene and Holocene that recharged the underlying aquifers. The geological structure of the Salar, including faults and the distribution of low-permeability layers, has played a determining role in the system’s hydrodynamics. This study emphasizes the need for continuous and detailed monitoring of the isotopic composition to assess the sustainability of the water resource in response to brine extraction and future climate changes. Additionally, it suggests applying this methodology to other salt flats in the region for a better understanding of hydrogeological processes in arid zones. The research provides an integrative view of the relationship between resource extraction, water management, and ecosystem conservation in one of the most important salars in the world.

Establishing monarch butterfly overwintering sites for future climates: Abies religiosa upper altitudinal limit expansion by assisted migration

Climate change projections suggest a precarious future for the Monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) as the suitable climatic habitat of its exclusive overwintering host Abies religiosa (oyamel, Sacred fir, a conifer endemic to Mexico) inside the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) is expected to disappear by 2090. Since the upper elevation limit of A. religiosa is approximately 3,500 m and the summits of mountains within the MBBR are ca. 3,550 m, we tested the feasibility of establishing A. religiosa at four locations outside its current geographic range in the MBBR, on a geographically close volcano, Nevado de Toluca at 4000 (timberline, an extreme site), 3,800, and 3,600 m (to test species range expansion upward in elevation), and at 3400 m (a reference site, slightly lower than the upper elevation limit of A. religiosa). Using existing shrubs as nurse plants to protect the seedlings from extreme temperatures, at each site we planted five to eight populations, originating between 3,100 and 3,500 m within the MBBR. After three growing seasons in the field (6 years after sowing), we found that: (a) survival and height increment declined steeply with test site elevation; (b) even at the highest sites (3,800 and 4,000 m), survival was acceptable, at 68 and 44%, respectively, although the growth was very poor at 4000 m; (c) populations responded similarly to transfer; (d) transfer effects were best accounted for by annual dryness index; (e) to compensate for the expected 2.3°C increase in mean annual temperature or 0.009 √°Cmm−1 increase of annual dryness index from the reference period (1961–1990) to the decade centered in 2060, it would be necessary to shift populations approximately 500 m to higher elevations; and (f) upward transfers to compensate for the 2.3°C increase in mean annual temperature are expected to result in height increment and survival that are approximately 47 and 21% lower, respectively, than values expected at zero transfer distance. We conclude that the establishment of A. religiosa at 3600 and 3,800 m is feasible and that planted stands could eventually serve as overwintering sites for the Monarch butterfly under projected future climates.

Assessing Building Energy Savings and the Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential of Green Roofs in Shanghai Using a GIS-Based Approach

Climate change can significantly affect building energy use and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in urban areas, as fossil fuels remain a significant energy source. Green roofs can offer multiple benefits to the urban environment, but their effects on GHG mitigation have not been fully investigated, especially under climate change. This study assessed green roofs’ contribution to GHG mitigation by saving building energy and absorbing CO2 under the present (2017–2019) and future (2049–2051) climate scenarios (SSP2-45 and SSP5-85) in Shanghai, China, at the city and township scale. A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial statistical method was developed based on climate change modeling and building energy simulation. The results suggested that installing green roofs can effectively save building energy regardless of building type, yet the amount of savings can vary depending on the weather conditions within the city. The contribution analysis indicated that most saved building energy was attributed to the Heating, Ventilation, and Cooling (HVAC) system, with more energy saved under warmer climate scenarios in the future, particularly during the summer months. More energy was saved from shopping malls on an annual and monthly scale, regardless of the climate scenarios and weather zones. Finally, a case study indicated installing green roofs on all five types of buildings (office, hotel, hospital, shopping mall, apartment) of less than 50 m in height can reduce 8.28% of the CO2 emitted during the building operation stage in the entire city under the present climate scenario. The annual CO2 reduction varied with the location of townships, ranging from 2.18% to 13.78%, depending on the composition of building types and local weather conditions in Shanghai. This study offered policymakers a reference on the environmental benefits and investment values of installing green roofs in large cities.

Warming decreased plant litter decomposition by modulating soil fauna interactions in a Tibetan alpine meadow

Litter decomposition is a vital process for maintaining ecosystem carbon cycling. It is affected by soil fauna which are predators and decomposers of litter. However, how the interactions of soil fauna communities affect litter decomposition remains unclear under warming. Here, we conducted a five-year in-situ manipulative warming experiment by Open-Top Chamber (OTC) in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau to reveal how warming affects litter decomposition. The results demonstrated that warming decreased the litter decomposition rate by 29 %, the soil collembola abundance by 25 %, and the nematode abundance by 27 %. Nematode ecological indices remain stable but a shift in the decomposition of litter to the fungivores pathway under warming. The piecewise structural equation modelling result revealed that the combined reduction in soil collembola and nematodes synergistically leads to a massive decline in litter decomposition rate under warming. Our results highlight that the interactions of soil fauna can regulate litter decomposition under warming, and collembola abundance as the “speed-limiter” of litter decomposition. Therefore, the response of changes in soil fauna relationships to warming should be completely considered in future climate change modelling of the grassland carbon cycle.

Warming suppresses grassland recovery in biomass but not in community composition after grazing exclusion in a Mongolian grassland

We conducted a 4-year temperature manipulation experiment in a Mongolian grassland to examine the effect of daytime and nighttime warming on grassland recovery after grazing exclusion. After constructing a livestock exclusion fence in the grassland, we established daytime and daytime-and-nighttime warming treatments within the fenced area by a combination of open-top chambers (OTC) and electric heaters. We measured the numbers of plants and aboveground biomass by species after recording percentage vegetation cover every summer for three warming treatments inside the fence—non-warming, daytime warming, and daytime-and-nighttime warming—and for the grassland outside of the fence. OTCs increased daytime temperature by about 2.0 °C, and heaters increased nighttime temperature by 0.9 °C during the growing period. Grazing exclusion had little effect on grassland biomass but reduced the abundance of poorly palatable species and modified plant community composition. Daytime warming decreased soil moisture and lowered aboveground biomass within the fenced grassland but had little effect on plant community composition. Nighttime warming lowered soil moisture further but its effects on grassland biomass and community composition were undetectable. We concluded that recovery of plant biomass in grasslands degraded by grazing would be lowered by future climate warming through soil drying. Because warming had little effect on the recovery of community composition, adverse effects of warming on grassland recovery might be offset by improving plant productivity through mitigation of soil drying by watering. Soil drying due to nighttime warming might have detectable effects on vegetation when warming persists for a long time.

Changes in mean evapotranspiration dominate groundwater recharge in semi-arid regions

Abstract. Groundwater is one of the most essential natural resources and is affected by climate variability. However, our understanding of the effects of climate on groundwater recharge (R), particularly in dry regions, is limited. Future climate projections suggest changes in many statistical characteristics of the potential evapotranspiration (Ep) and the rainfall that dictate the R. To better understand the relationship between climate statistics and R, we separately considered changes to the mean, standard deviation, and extreme statistics of the Ep and the precipitation (P). We simulated the R under different climate conditions in multiple semi-arid and arid locations worldwide. Obviously, lower precipitation is expected to result in lower groundwater recharge and vice versa. However, the relationship between R and P is non-linear. Examining the ratio R/P is useful for revealing the underlying relation between R and P; therefore, we focus on this ratio. We find that changes in the average Ep have the most significant impact on R/P. Interestingly, we find that changes in the extreme Ep statistics have much weaker effects on R/P than changes in extreme P statistics. Contradictory results of previous studies and predictions of future groundwater recharge may be explained by the differences in the projected climate statistics.

Effects of simulated precipitation changes on soil respiration:Progress and prospects.

Soil respiration, the main pathway for transferring terrestrial carbon pool to atmospheric carbon pool, is profoundly affected by the intensification in global precipitation variability in the context of climate change. Nowadays, variable controlling methods and field manipulation experiments are two main methods widely used to investigate the effects of simulated precipitation changes on soil respiration. Yet, due to the heterogeneity of soil properties, vegetation types, and the magnitude of precipitation change, there is substantial inconsistency in the conclusions of simulated precipitation change effects on soil respiration. Here, we analyzed data from domestic and foreign literature, and examined the effects of simulated precipitation change on soil respiration. Firstly, we described the response pattern of soil respiration to soil moisture fluctuation and pointed out that the magnitude and direction of the response of soil respiration to simulated precipitation change depended on whether soil moisture was optimally conditioned at different precipitation treatments. Second, we summarized the response patterns of soil respiration to symmetric increase and decrease in precipitation, which mainly included symmetric and asymmetric responses (positive and negative asymmetric). Meanwhile, the adaptation of plants and soil microorganisms to drought stress and soil oxygen limitation, as well as the reduction of organic substrates, were the main mechanisms accounting for the shifts of soil respiration response patterns to simulated precipitation change from symmetric to asymmetric responses. Third, we identified a significant effect of ambient climate on soil respiration in response to precipitation treatments as increasing duration of the experimental treatments. In addition, cumulative or buffering effects of ambient climatic conditions on precipitation treatment could affect the sensitivity of soil respiration along precipitation gradient by altering hydrothermal conditions. Finally, to accurately assess the implications of precipitation changes on soil carbon balance processes, we proposed three aspects of future precipitation effects on soil respiration for attention: 1) focusing on the phenomenon of "threshold effects" in the asymmetric response of soil respiration along precipitation gradients; 2) distinguishing the intrinsic mechanisms of autotrophic and heterotrophic components in soil respiration in response to precipitation changes; and 3) focusing on the impacts of intensified precipitation variability on soil respiration in the context of future climate extremes. In conclusion, with the intensified variability in global precipitation patterns, clarifying the response mechanism of soil respiration to precipitation changes is of great significance for accurately predicting and evaluating the alterations of soil carbon cycle processes and carbon balance in the context of global changes.

Principle, structure and application progress of the forest landscape model FireBGCv2.

Forest landscape model can quantitatively simulate the spatiotemporal variations in forest structure and function at the landscape scale based on traditional field survey data and mathematical models, providing a reference for the formulation of scientific forest management strategies. FireBGCv2 is one of the representative models currently used in the research area of forest landscape changes. It can simulate ecological processes at various scales, including trees scale (tree growth, establishment, and mortality), stand scale (carbon and nitrogen pools, fuel treatment, decomposition), site scale (resource competition and species phenology), and landscape scale (seed dispersal and wildfire disturbances), and the effects of those processes on forest landscape structure and function. The advantage of this model lies in its ability to simulate multiple ecological processes while considering the diversity and complexity of ecosystems. However, it also has drawbacks, such as high computational demands and complexity of use. We summarized the basic principles and structure of FireBGCv2 and introduced its application progress in forest landscape research and management. Currently, the application of the FireBGCv2 model, both domestically and internationally, mainly focused on exploring the interactions between fire, climate, and vegetation, quantifying the spatial and temporal dynamics of fires, and describing potential fire dynamics under future climate scenarios and land management strategies. With the in-depth development of forest landscape model theories and applications, the future prospects of FireBGCv2 include improving and updating the model's algorithms, adding new functional modules to explore fire management issues, and meeting the needs of different users.

Predicting conservation priority areas in Borneo for the critically endangered helmeted hornbill (Rhinoplax vigil)

The critically endangered helmeted hornbill (Rhinoplax vigil) is under threat around its Southeast Asian range due to hunting and habitat loss. Dependant on primary rainforest habitats, the species is thought to be highly sensitive to habitat disturbance. Compounding this is the threat of climate change where equatorial ecosystems, such as those found on Borneo, are predicted to increase in temperature and precipitation. It is therefore important to identify whether the species’ suitable habitats, both now and in the future, are protected from further anthropogenic disturbance. In this study we used species distribution models to assess the extent of suitable habitat for R. vigil across Borneo, an island which has undergone rapid deforestation in recent years, and a stronghold for the species. Using 302 R. vigil occurrence records, four environmental and three land-use cover variables, we modelled R. vigil current habitat suitability, and two future projections under climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for 2041–2060. Our results suggest that a quarter of Borneo's landmass is currently suitable for R. vigil. However, there is a steep decline in the predicted suitable habitat from 335,963 km2 (current scenario) to 73,170 km2 (future RCP 4.5), to 54,839 km2 (future RCP 8.5). Our model predicts that the amount of suitable habitat protected by current protected areas (PAs) and the planned Heart of Borneo (HoB) initiative will increase under future climate change, with the HoB protecting > 65 % of R. vigil suitable habitat across all projections. This is likely worsened by future land-use change not included in these models, which is a limitation to our study. We therefore encourage the connectivity of lowland PAs, and the continuation of HoB targets to prevent further decline of R. vigil habitat around Borneo. This study provides the first species-specific spatial assessment of the critically endangered helmeted hornbill distribution in response to climate change across current and planned protected regions in Borneo.

Political Cleavages and Changing Exposure to Global Warming

Why do some countries pass laws to reduce emissions that cause climate change while others do not? We theorize that climate change-related disasters cause politicians to view global warming as more proximate, but whether they have incentives to enact mitigation laws depends on their country’s geographic vulnerability to future damages. We use a spatial integrated assessment model to measure global warming’s local economic effects, which allows us to predict how political leaders respond to disasters based on their vulnerability. An analysis of mitigation laws from 1990–2020 in 155 countries shows that only governments in locations facing the greatest future climate damage react to disasters by passing mitigation policies. Distinct from the historical North-South divide, our findings highlight a growing geographic cleavage in national responses to climate change.

Identifying urban prone areas to flash floods: The case of Santa Cruz de Tenerife

Floods are the natural hazard that causes the largest annual losses in the world Urban expansion and population growth have made cities the most hazardous areas, mainly due to poor planning, occupation of the drainage network and soil sealing. Santa Cruz de Tenerife is one of the many cities worldwide threatened by this phenomenon. Its typically Mediterranean rainfall pattern, characterized by extreme precipitation events in short periods of time, together with its orography of steep ravines, short length and width, as well as its disorderly growth, make it a space prone to the occurrence of flash floods. In addition, the increase in torrential rainfall as a consequence of climate change and the tendency towards greater irregularity in precipitation is considerably intensifying the problem. This paper studies the characteristics of these episodes and the black spots inventoried in its General Management Plan (PGO for its initials in Spanish). On the other hand, flood modeling is carried out based on the rainfall characterization, whose maximum flows, in total, range between 500 and 1600 m3/s. Finally, a methodology that allows integrating both analyses to obtain a detailed hazard map is proposed as an alternative to the more traditional flood hazard analyses. A design storm of 288 mm is applied and the data is validated against the largest rainfall event on record, March 31, 2002. It has been shown that in an urban drainage network, the main watercourses and those that have disappeared due to urbanization represent areas susceptible to flooding and are the sectors that should be emphasized during the implementation of risk reduction measures. Finally, emphasis is placed on the need to integrate future climate projections of precipitation to better define the maximum flood flows.

Assessment of SADC Countries' National Adaptation Planning Health Impacts Inclusion: A Thorough Review.

Background: The impacts of climate change are recognised as a key challenge of the 21st century. By 2030, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to have the globally highest burden of disease due to climate change. Objectives: This study aims to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a sub-region under-represented at a global level, in addressing current and future climate change-related health impacts. It specifically assesses the NAPs of Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. Methods: A thorough review was conducted, analysing articles, government reports, and national communications related to NAPs and climate change health outcomes in the selected countries. Sources were evaluated against pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Main findings: All five countries prioritised health in their NAPs; however, health departments were excluded from assessments in two of the countries. Although health surveillance and early warning systems were included in the NAPs, there was limited evidence of their integration into broader climate, health, economic, and labour policies. National climate change focal points were identified, but governance and implementation at district and local levels were not well-documented. This review highlighted a need for greater inclusion of Indigenous and locally led knowledge. Common barriers identified included the lack of data with appropriate frequency and scale. Governance and implementation difficulties were also identified in all five countries; these difficulties included both a lack of coordination and a lack of institutional capacity. These challenges, especially a lack of political will to address the compound impacts of altered climate and health on all earth systems, are also found at the regional level. Conclusions: National strategies and implementation programs in SADC countries need to be agile in their ability to scale and adapt, yet they also need to include measurable actions and timeframes. Given the shared climate and health trends and the interconnected socio-economic, environmental, and political landscape, there is significant potential for regional coordination to address cross-border climate change impacts and to optimise resource use.

Influence of Rivers, Tides, and Tidal Wetlands on Estuarine Carbonate System Dynamics

Variations in estuarine carbonate chemistry can have critical impacts on marine calcifying organisms, yet the drivers of this variability are difficult to quantify from observations alone, due to the strong spatiotemporal variability of these systems. Terrestrial runoff and wetland processes vary year to year based on local precipitation, and estuarine processes are often strongly modulated by tides. In this study, a 3D-coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model is used to quantify the controls on the carbonate system of a coastal plain estuary, specifically the York River estuary. Experiments were conducted both with and without tidal wetlands. Results show that on average, wetlands account for 20–30% of total alkalinity (TA) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) fluxes into the estuary, and double-estuarine CO2 outgassing. Strong quasi-monthly variability is driven by the tides and causes fluctuations between net heterotrophy and net autotrophy. On longer time scales, model results show that in wetter years, lower light availability decreases primary production relative to biological respiration (i.e., greater net heterotrophy) resulting in substantial increases in CO2 outgassing. Additionally, in wetter years, advective exports of DIC and TA to the Chesapeake Bay increase by a factor of three to four, resulting in lower concentrations of DIC and TA within the estuary. Quantifying the impacts of these complex drivers is not only essential for a better understanding of coastal carbon and alkalinity cycling, but also leads to an improved assessment of the health and functioning of coastal ecosystems both in the present day and under future climate change.

High radiative forcing climate scenario relevance analyzed with a ten-million-member ensemble

Developing future climate projections begins with choosing future emissions scenarios. While scenarios are often based on storylines, here instead we produce a probabilistic multi-million-member ensemble of radiative forcing trajectories to assess the relevance of future forcing thresholds. We coupled a probabilistic database of future greenhouse gas emission scenarios with a probabilistically calibrated reduced complexity climate model. In 2100, we project median forcings of 5.1 watt per square meters (5th to 95th percentiles of 3.3 to 7.1), with roughly 0.5% probability of exceeding 8.5 watt per square meters, and a 1% probability of being lower than 2.6 watt per square meters. Although the probability of 8.5 watt per square meters scenarios is low, our results support their continued utility for calibrating damage functions, characterizing climate in the 22nd century (the probability of exceeding 8.5 watt per square meters increases to about 7% by 2150), and assessing low-probability/high-impact futures.

Enhancing the accuracy of wind power projections under climate change using geospatial machine learning models

This paper presents a geospatial artificial intelligence (GeoAI) approach for generating wind power projection maps employing various Machine Learning (ML) models. These models include Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Support Vector Regression (SVR), which collectively aim to provide insightful wind power forecasts under the effects of climate change. The framework considers different influential parameters affecting wind speed, including pressure gradient, temperature gradient, humidity, and topography. The study’s geographic focus is Cork City, Ireland. The investigation covers a historical period from 2000 to 2014 and extends to encompass two future climate scenarios, between 2015 and 2050. A comprehensive set of statistical skill scores is computed to gauge the models’ performance. The study’s findings underscore the efficacy of the ML models in generating dependable estimates of wind power fluctuations. Notably, the SVR model emerges as the frontrunner in performance across most pixels examined. Despite the inherent complexity of wind power dynamics, this research highlights that the SVR model can produce accurate wind power maps, even when operating with limited input data. The results emphasize the importance of considering influential factors in wind speed projections. This approach opens up promising avenues for improving the management of renewable energy resources.

A simple and robust approach for adapting design storms to assess climate-induced changes in flash flood hazard

Hydrologists and civil engineers often use design storms to assess flash flood hazards in urban, rural, and mountainous catchments. These synthetic storms are not representations of real extreme rainfall events, but rather simplified versions parameterized to mimic extreme precipitation statistics often obtained from intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves. To construct design storms for the future climate, it is thus necessary first to recalculate IDF curves to represent rainfall under warmer conditions. We propose a framework for adjusting IDF curves and design storms to future climate conditions using the TENAX model, a novel statistical approach that can provide future short-duration precipitation return levels based on projected temperature changes. For most applications, information from climate models at the daily scale can be used to construct design storms at the sub-hourly scale without any downscaling or bias adjustment. Our approach is illustrated through a re-parameterization of the Chicago Design Storm (CDS) in the context of climate change. As a case study demonstration, we apply the TENAX model to data from the city of Zurich to calculate changes in the historical IDF curve for durations ranging from 10 min to 3 h. We then construct synthetic 100-year return period design storms based on the CDS for present and future climates and use the CAFlood model to produce flood inundation maps to assess changes in flood hazard. The codes for adapting design storms to climate change are simple to implement, easily applicable by practitioners, and made freely available.

Global Distribution Prediction of Cyrtotrachelus buqueti Guer (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Insights from the Optimised MaxEnt Model.

Cyrtotrachelus buqueti Guer is a major pest affecting bamboo forests economically, causing significant damage to bamboo forests in Sichuan Province, China. To understand how C. buqueti responds to future climate conditions, an optimized Maximum Entropy Model (Maxent) was used to simulate the potential global distribution patterns of C. buqueti under current climate conditions and three different future climate scenarios and to analyze the dominant factors influencing its distribution. The results indicate that Bio18 (precipitation of the warmest quarter), Bio04 (temperature seasonality), Bio06 (minimum temperature of the coldest month), and Bio02 (mean diurnal temperature range) are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of this species. The global area of high-suitability habitats for C. buqueti is 9.00 × 104 km2, primarily distributed in China. Under three different future climate scenarios, there are varying degrees of expansion in both the total suitable habitat and the medium-suitability areas for C. buqueti. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the medium-suitability area of the species increases the most, reaching 9.83 × 104 km2. Additionally, these findings can serve as a reference for developing and implementing control strategies, assisting relevant authorities in more effectively managing and controlling this pest, and mitigating its potential threats to bamboo forest ecosystems and economies.

Reconstructing the rapid transitions of ecosystems during the mid-late Holocene: A pollen record from Haixing wetland in Bohai Bay, North China

Vegetation in coastal regions is sensitive to climate and sea-level changes. However, currently there is still a lack of understanding about the stability of the Holocene coastal ecosystem and the rapid conversion processes of different coastal wetland ecosystems. In this study, the high-resolution vegetation succession history of the southwest coast of Bohai Bay during the mid-late Holocene was revealed, based on pollen analysis and REVEALS model, and the rate of vegetation change was estimated. Furthermore, the characteristics and mechanisms of different ecosystem changes were explored. The results indicate that there was a prolonged transition from shallow sea to lagoon before the formation of the Haixing wetland during the interval of 7500–4100 cal yr BP. The rate of watershed vegetation change increase significantly under the common influence of the 4.2 ka event and human activities, causing a regime shift in the mountain forest ecosystems and a decrease in landscape resilience. It was characterized by a substantial reduction in broad-leaved forests (from>30% to<5%), especially for Quercus (∼3%), which have not recovered to pre-event levels since the end of the 4.2 ka event. Since 3500 cal yr BP, the Haixing area was completely detached from the influence of the Bohai Sea, forming freshwater wetlands. The local vegetation rapidly shifted from alkali-tolerant communities that followed the sea retreat to freshwater marsh plant communities. During 2000–1100 cal yr BP, under the strong impact of human activities, the succession of forest and grassland communities in the basin became more frequent. The area of coastal salt marshes expanded, with salt-tolerant plant communities taking the absolute advantage. The wetland vegetation landscape became closer to the modern appearance. Overall, our study provides new evidence for understanding the rapid evolution of coastal ecosystems in East Asia influenced by a combination of climate, hydrology and humans. It will help guide the coastal regions in facing the challenges of future global climate changes.

High heat tolerance and thermal safety margins in mangroves from the southwestern coast of India

Mangroves are key components of productive ecosystems that provide a multitude of ecosystem goods and services. How these species will respond to future climates with more frequent and severe extreme temperatures has not received much attention. To understand how vulnerable mangroves are to future warming, we quantified photosynthetic heat tolerance and estimated thermal safety margins for thirteen mangrove species from the southwestern Indian coast. We quantified heat tolerance as temperatures that resulted in a 5 % (T5) and 50 % (T50) decline in photosystem II function, and thermal safety margins (TSM) as the difference between T50 and maximum leaf temperatures. T50 ranged from 48.9 °C in Avicennia Marina to 55.3 °C in Bruguiera gymnorhiza, with a mean of 53.3 °C for the thirteen species. Heat tolerance was higher for species with bigger leaves which experience higher leaf temperatures, but was not related to the other leaf traits examined. Heat tolerance was exceptionally high in these mangroves compared to other woody species. With their high tolerance and large safety margins these mangroves may be relatively less vulnerable to future climates with higher temperatures.