Enhancing the accuracy of wind power projections under climate change using geospatial machine learning models

Abstract

This paper presents a geospatial artificial intelligence (GeoAI) approach for generating wind power projection maps employing various Machine Learning (ML) models. These models include Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Support Vector Regression (SVR), which collectively aim to provide insightful wind power forecasts under the effects of climate change. The framework considers different influential parameters affecting wind speed, including pressure gradient, temperature gradient, humidity, and topography. The study’s geographic focus is Cork City, Ireland. The investigation covers a historical period from 2000 to 2014 and extends to encompass two future climate scenarios, between 2015 and 2050. A comprehensive set of statistical skill scores is computed to gauge the models’ performance. The study’s findings underscore the efficacy of the ML models in generating dependable estimates of wind power fluctuations. Notably, the SVR model emerges as the frontrunner in performance across most pixels examined. Despite the inherent complexity of wind power dynamics, this research highlights that the SVR model can produce accurate wind power maps, even when operating with limited input data. The results emphasize the importance of considering influential factors in wind speed projections. This approach opens up promising avenues for improving the management of renewable energy resources.