Future Climate Research Articles

Impact of temperatures on grassland transfer strategy: Evidence from the Qinghai-Tibet plateau in China

The increasing severity and complexity climate change present significant challenges to agricultural and social activities. This study investigates the effects of extreme temperatures on grassland transfer strategies, utilizing micro-level survey datasets obtained from pastoral areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China, which are then matched with weather data. Employing the piecewise linear method and the temperature bins approach, the results reveal that extreme high temperature weather has a positive and significant effect on grassland transfer decisions. Specifically, each additional day of high-temperature weather throughout the year increases the overall probability of grassland transfer by 0.52%. Additionally, the analysis reveals a U-shaped relationship between temperature and grassland transfer-in decision, with the turning point occurring in the of 5–8 °C range. Furthermore, the findings indicate that grassland transfer decisions are predominantly influenced by moderating effects of factors such as the grassland quality and non-pastoral income. Moreover, herder households characterized by high income levels and younger demographics exhibit a notable capability in rapidly applying adaptive strategies to cope with temperature variations. Projections for future climate change scenarios indicate that extreme temperatures will significantly negatively impact grassland transfer-out, while positively influencing transfer-in.

Copper and Temperature Interaction Induced Gill and Liver Lesions and Behaviour Alterations in Mozambique Tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus)

Climate changes linked to extreme events pose a threat to freshwater biodiversity, impacting organs, behaviour, and reproduction. Moreover, these changes can be amplified by pollution. Copper sulphate (CuSO4) is used in agriculture and aquaculture, so the copper can reach streams, rivers, and lakes impacting fish. This study evaluated the combined effects of temperature and copper on gills and liver histology biomarkers and in the behaviour of Mozambique tilapia over 28 days. Tilapias were exposed to different water temperatures (25 °C and 32 °C) and CuSO4 concentrations (1.1 and 3.6 mg/L). Fish from the control group were exposed to water without copper sulphate and at 25 °C (within their optimum range). Histopathological analysis revealed significant tissue lesions, namely aneurysms and bending of gill lamellae, and hyalinization and vacuolization in the liver at the higher temperature and CuSO4 level. Moreover, behavioural observations revealed increased stress changes under the same conditions. These findings highlight the effects of fast climate change, and rising temperatures on copper toxicity, underlining the necessity for strict monitoring and regulation of copper use due to future climate change scenarios to protect aquatic ecosystems, ichthyofauna population and trophic web dynamics. This data also alerts for similar problems with other toxic metals or chemicals, at short term, in streams and rivers, under rapid climate changes and more frequent extreme events.

Distributed modelling of snow and ice melt in the Naltar Catchment, Upper Indus basin

Energy balance distributed modelling in High Mountain Asia (HMA) is important to examine glaciological and hydrological processes and assess changes in streamflow in the current and future climate. In this study, the Physically based Distributed Snow Land and Ice Model (PDSLIM) using detailed observed meteorological data at hourly scale is employed to simulate the hydrological response of the Naltar catchment, 242.62 km2 in size, (in the Karakoram region in Pakistan to simulate its glaciers’ mass balance as well as daily runoff. The results exhibited overall satisfactory performance in terms of coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.96) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE=0.95) modelled against satellite-based snow cover areas, for internal model verification, in eight years. The results of runoff simulations compared for external model verification, with observed daily discharge resulted in NSE 0.90 and 0.89 for calibration and validation period respectively. Flow composition analysis revealed that the streamflow regime of Naltar catchment is composed to 40 % by glacier runoff, 42 % by sub-surface runoff and 18 % by surface runoff. The eight year mean value of net mass balance exhibited a slightly negative mass balance (−0.810 ± 0.31 m w.e. a-1) less pronounced than that observed globally in several continental glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in the current climate. It seems that the ‘Karakoram anomaly’, i.e. the balanced to slightly positive glacier budgets observed in the region in the recent decades, a unique dynamics worldwide, has a moderate impact in the central Karakoram. Overall, the distributed energy-balance model PDSLIM, so far tested in the Alps, results to be a suitable tool to estimate energy and mass balance in the glacierized catchments of Karakoram and Himalaya and to better understand snow and ice melt runoff dynamics and floods in highly complex and glacierized mountain basins in the current and, in our research perspective, in the future climate.

Future climate suitability of Hemileia vastatrix in arabica coffee under CMIP6 scenarios.

Coffee (Coffea arabica L.) is one of the most important commodities today, with a high economic value worldwide. Coffee leaf rust (Hemileia vastatrix Berk. et Br.) has been showing a high impact on Brazilian coffee trees among the various diseases that attack coffee. The climate has a great influence on the development of diseases, especially when fungi are the causal agents. This study aimed to carry out the zoning of climate favorability for coffee leaf rust in the traditional and main coffee-producing regions of Brazil. The study was conducted in 13 locations in the states of Paraná, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Goiás and Bahia. Air temperature and daily precipitation data for the current scenario were collected using the WorldClim version 2.1 platform for the last climatological normal and future climate change data. The ideal climate conditions for coffee leaf rust consist of a mean air temperature ranging from 21 to 25 °C and precipitation >30 mm per month. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects scenarios associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports consisted of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways SSP-1 2.6, SSP-2 4.5, SSP-3 7.0 and SSP-5 8.5, the latter being considered one of the most catastrophic. All steps to carry out the suitability zoning were performed in a tool using the QGIS geographic information system software. Zoning for coffee leaf rust had three classes: favorable, relatively favorable and unfavorable. Currently, the largest coffee-producing region in Brazil has 49.1% of its analyzed area classified as favorable, 39.2% as relatively favorable and 11.7% as unfavorable. In the current scenario, Patrocínio and Três Pontas are locations with high coffee production in which the favorable class is predominant. The state of Minas Gerais has an annual mean of 55.3% of its entire territory apt for the disease, with the highest occurrence between September and March. Climate change has a negative impact on the development of coffee leaf rust, mainly in the long term, as in the period of 2081-2100, in which the SSP-5 8.5 scenario led to a decrease in the favorable and unfavorable areas and an increase in the relatively favorable areas of 9.8%, 18.6% and 71.5% for the Brazilian territory, respectively. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Groundwater sustainability in India through nonrice-dominated cropping pattern.

Over-exploitation of groundwater for irrigation caused rapid groundwater depletion in north India, leading to food and water security challenges. However, the crucial role of changing cropping patterns on groundwater savings under the observed and projected warming climate remains unexplored. Here, we show that altering the existing rice-dominated cropping systems in India can be a potential solution for groundwater sustainability under the current and future climate. Satellite and model-based estimates show that north India lost ∼336 and 297 km3 of groundwater, respectively during 2002-2022. We developed optimized crop switching scenarios for groundwater savings considering nutritional requirements, farmers' profit, and crop production. Crop switching considering all the three targets (crop switch one: CSI) and allowing rice replacement with alternate crops (crop switch two: CSII) could save 45 and 91 km3 groundwater, respectively in north India during the observed climate (2002-2022) compared with the current cropping pattern. Altering the current cropping pattern can lead to substantial groundwater savings under the projected future climate without comprising nutritional targets and farmers' profit at the state level. Replacing 37% area of rice with other crops (CSII) can recover 61 to 108 km3 groundwater compared with -13 to 43 km3 with current cropping pattern under the 1.5-3 °C global warming levels. Similarly, under the CSI scenario, 36 to 86 km3 groundwater can be recovered in the future warming world. Moreover, the benefits of crop switching in groundwater saving are higher during the prolonged dry periods compared with the baseline under the warming climate. Therefore, crop switching offers substantial benefits for groundwater sustainability under the current and projected future climate in India.

Development of a coupled agent-based generation expansion planning tool with a power dispatch model

Power companies need to adapt their generation expansion planning in response to changing market, climate and regulatory conditions as global warming, electrification, and technology breakthroughs continue. To fortify energy system resilience, it is critical to understand the collective effects of their autonomous decisions on power systems operations and reliability. To this end, we developed an integrated framework, an agent-based model (ABM) coupled with a power dispatch model (PDM) (referred to as ABM-PDM), tested on the Texas 123-bus transmission system in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region. Agents (power generation companies) can invest in natural gas, solar, and wind technologies to maximize profits from 2021 to 2050, using market information from the PDM based on their capital budget and perceived costs, financial incentives for renewable energy, and climate risks. We applied ABM-PDM to assess how power companies respond to future technological advancements and climate change. After demonstrating model credibility, we explored 25 combinations of cost and capacity factors reflecting a variety of technological evolution trajectories. Results indicated that to replace wind over solar for replacing existing fossil-fuel power plants due to lower costs and higher capacity factors. Additionally, as more agents invest, the energy market becomes more competitive, and system-wide electricity prices drop. We also analyzed the impacts of temperature increases on investments using seven projections, from 0 to 6 °C, during the modeling period. The results showed that as temperatures rise, agents invest more to accommodate the increasing loads. ABM-PDM incorporates risk attitude and learning into companies’ decision-making, providing additional information on generation expansion for the non-optimal future of power systems.

Climate change ecological vulnerability and hotspot analysis of himalayan forests in North-Eastern region, India

The Himalayan forests are vulnerable to climate change leading to disturb the current flow of critical ecosystem services to the dependent population. Present study attempts to evaluate the current vulnerability status of major forest types in Nagaland, India due to climate change along with identifying the hot spots for mitigating the vulnerability of the forests. Vulnerability of mixed moist deciduous, pine, wet hill and wet temperate forests were evaluated using the IPCC framework. Local Moran's I analysis, hot spot analysis and a histogram analysis of the vulnerability were made in QGIS. Field data such as Shannon-Wiener Index and Importance Value Index along with secondary data such as edaphic factors, vegetation factors and climatic variables were used for vulnerability analysis. Analysis results that mixed moist deciduous forests had the highest area in under high-high clusters, hot spots and was highly vulnerable. The result suggests that very dense or moderately dense forest cover were less vulnerable than low density forests in the region. The study provides baseline information along with identification of vulnerable hot spot forests for future climate change policy and management of resources at the division level. The study suggests strengthening the less dense forests along with increasing the biodiversity through suitable strategy for mitigating the vulnerability.

Stagg:: A data pre-processing R package for climate impacts analysis

The increasing availability of high-resolution climate data has greatly expanded the study of how the climate impacts humans and society. However, the processing of these multi-dimensional datasets poses significant challenges for researchers in this growing field, most of whom are social scientists. This paper introduces stagg, or “space-time aggregator”, a new R package that streamlines three critical components of climate data processing for impacts analysis: nonlinear transformation, spatial and temporal aggregation, and spatial weighting by social or economic variables. The package consolidates the data processing pipeline into a few lines of code, lowering barriers to entry for researchers and facilitating a larger and more diverse research community. The paper provides an overview of stagg's functions, followed by an applied example demonstrating the package's utility in climate impacts research. stagg has the potential to be a valuable tool in generating evidence-based estimates of the likely impacts of future climate change.

Current Advances in the Black Tiger Shrimp Penaeus monodon Culture: A Review

ABSTRACTThe increasing high‐end market demand for the black tiger shrimp Penaeus monodon has brought tremendous industry opportunities. Although the industry has tried its best to increase production, according to the report data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), annual global production has shown no significant upward trend over the past decade. Besides that, newly implemented policies such as seafood safety and food security negatively impacted the industry and reduced production. However, P. monodon cultivation is still promising due to its larger body size and higher market acceptance as a premium product. Over the years, numerous studies have been conducted to increase the production of P. monodon by optimizing its culture conditions, implementing new culture system, increasing disease resistance to disease such as WSSV, AHPND, WFD, implementation of pre‐ and probiotics in feed, and selective breeding programs to increase genetic diversity and population of P. monodon broodstock. This review provides an overview of the current advances in P. monodon broodstock cultivation, thereby providing an essential baseline for P. monodon aquaculture. Areas needing urgent research focus are also highlighted. Future research should take great strides and take into account the impact of future climate change scenario during P. monodon culture and optimization, and increase biosecurity measures to prevent its introduction as an alien species in wild settings.

Present and future distribution of the deep-sea habitat-forming sponge - Pheronema carpenteri ( ) in a changing ocean

Sponges play vital roles in the ecosystem function of the deep sea. Some species, such as the birds' nest sponge Pheronema carpenteri, can form highly structured and dense habitats (i.e., aggregations), which contribute to the increase of nearby biodiversity. Climate change is expected to have a pronounced impact on the deep sea, particularly on Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems such as those formed by the glass sponge Pheronema carpenteri. These ecosystems are especially vulnerable to climate change and other anthropogenic activities since they are formed by sensitive species with slow growth rates and limited dispersal capability, which can hinder their adaptive capability and recovery after disturbance. The impact that climate change will have on Pheronema carpenteri remains unclear, although it is expected to influence the species' available suitable habitat and distribution range. The aim of this study was to predict the distribution of the glass sponge Pheronema carpenteri both for present day and under several future climate scenarios in the North Atlantic. An ensemble modelling approach was employed, combining Maximum Entropy, Generalized Additive Models and Random Forest techniques. Changes in available suitable habitat were projected to present day and to three future climatic scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Depth, temperature and dissolved oxygen were identified as the key predictor variables of habitat suitability, which patterns suggest a strong influence of the Mediterranean Outflow Water in shaping the present day distribution of the species, particularly in the eastern North Atlantic. Our results indicate a potential expansion of available suitable habitat in the northernmost region of the study area, with a contraction at lower latitudes, more prominent in the Portuguese archipelago of the Azores. Under the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5), the area of suitable habitat will likely double compared to present, occupying approximately 6% of the total study area. The management and conservation of areas where Pheronema aggregations can occur should be articulated between different countries, particularly in the Northeast Atlantic since, cumulatively, most of Pheronema's climate refugia occurs within their EEZs. Nonetheless, a significant proportion of the species' climate refugia is located in areas within the High Seas (i.e., Rockall plateau).

Bending the curve of global freshwater biodiversity loss: what are the prospects?

Freshwater biodiversity conservation has received substantial attention in the scientific literature and is finally being recognized in policy frameworks such as the Global Biodiversity Framework and its associated targets for 2030. This is important progress. Nonetheless, freshwater species continue to be confronted with high levels of imperilment and widespread ecosystem degradation. An Emergency Recovery Plan (ERP) proposed in 2020 comprises six measures intended to "bend the curve" of freshwater biodiversity loss, if they are widely adopted and adequately supported. We review evidence suggesting that the combined intensity of persistent and emerging threats to freshwater biodiversity has become so serious that current and projected efforts to preserve, protect and restore inland-water ecosystems may be insufficient to avert substantial biodiversity losses in the coming decades. In particular, climate change, with its complex and harmful impacts, will frustrate attempts to prevent biodiversity losses from freshwater ecosystems already affected by multiple threats. Interactions among these threats will limit recovery of populations and exacerbate declines resulting in local or even global extinctions, especially among low-viability populations in degraded or fragmented ecosystems. In addition to impediments represented by climate change, we identify several other areas where the absolute scarcity of fresh water, inadequate scientific information or predictive capacity, and a widespread failure to mitigate anthropogenic stressors, are liable to set limits on the recovery of freshwater biodiversity. Implementation of the ERP rapidly and at scale through many widely dispersed local actions focused on regions of high freshwater biodiversity and intense threat, together with an intensification of ex-situ conservation efforts, will be necessary to preserve native freshwater biodiversity during an increasingly uncertain climatic future in which poorly understood, emergent and interacting threats have become more influential. But implementation of the ERP must be accompanied by measures that will improve water, energy and food security for humans - without further compromising the condition of freshwater ecosystems. Unfortunately, the inadequate political implementation of policies to arrest widely recognized environmental challenges such as climate change do not inspire confidence about the possible success of the ERP. In many parts of the world, the Anthropocene future seems certain to include extended periods with an absolute scarcity of uncontaminated surface runoff that will inevitably be appropriated by humans. Unless there is a step-change in societal awareness of - and commitment to - the conservation of freshwater biodiversity, together with necessary actions to arrest climate change, implementation of established methods for protecting freshwater biodiversity may not bend the curve enough to prevent continued ecosystem degradation and species loss.

Future projections of storm surge in Hurricane Katrina and sensitivity to meteorological forcing resolution

In this study, we investigated whether and how the storm surge induced by Hurricane Katrina could change if it occurs in a future warmer climate, and the sensitivity of the changes to atmospheric forcing resolution. Climate model simulations of Hurricane Katrina at 27 km, 4.5 km, and 3 km resolutions were used to drive storm surge simulations in historical and future climates using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. We found that peak surge height increased significantly in the future with all forcing resolutions. However, the future projection is 22% greater in the 3 km forcing, typical of regional climate models, compared to the 27 km forcing, typical of state-of-the-art global climate models. Additionally, the spatial extent of the future change is highly sensitive to forcing resolution, extending most broadly under the 27 km forcing. Furthermore, we found that storm surge duration decreases in the future with all forcing resolutions due to increasing TC translation speed and decreasing ocean lifetime. However, the future change in the surge duration is sensitive to the forcing resolution, decreasing by 31% in the 27 km forcing and 6% in the 3 km forcing.

Global Assessment of Compound Climate Extremes and Exposures of Population, Agriculture, and Forest Lands Under Two Climate Scenarios

AbstractClimate change is expected to increase the global occurrence and intensity of heatwaves, extreme precipitation, and flash droughts. However, it is not well understood how the compound heatwave, extreme precipitation, and flash drought events will likely change, and how global population, agriculture, and forest will likely be exposed to these compound events under future climate change scenarios. This research uses eight CMIP6 climate models to assess the current and future global compound climate extreme events, as well as population, agriculture, and forestry exposures to these events, under two climate scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5 for three time periods: early‐, mid‐, and late‐ 21st century. Climate extremes are derived for heatwaves, extreme precipitation, and flash droughts using locational‐dependent thresholds. We find that compound heatwaves and flash drought events result in the largest increases in exposure of populations, agriculture, and forest lands, under SSP5‐8.5 late‐century projections of sequential heatwaves and flash droughts. Late‐century projections of sequential heatwaves and flash droughts show hot spots of exposure increases in population exposure greater than 50 million person‐events in China, India, and Europe; increases in agriculture land exposures greater than 90 thousand km2‐events in China, South America, and Oceania; and increase in forest land exposure greater than 120 thousand km2‐events in Oceania and South America regions when compared to the historical period. The findings from this study can be potentially useful for informing global climate adaptations.

"Two zones and three centers" distribution and suitable areas shift of an evergreen oak in subtropical China under climate scenarios.

Understanding the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of species is a fundamental requirement for biodiversity conservation and resource management. Quercus oxyphylla, an evergreen oak endemic to China, plays a crucial role in maintaining the ecological stability in subtropical regions and high economic value attributed to its dark and high-density heartwood, but the existing resources are close to endangered. Currently, limited knowledge exists regarding its distribution and potential influences of climate change on suitable areas. This study utilized 63 occurrence records and Biomod2 platform, to predict changes in suitable areas for Q. oxyphylla under future climate change. The results revealed that (1) Q. oxyphylla showed a pattern of three disjunctive geographical centers in the eastern subregion of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest region (IVA): Qinling-Daba Mountains, Nanling Mountains and Wuyi Mountains center. Currently, the highly suitable areas concentrated in two zones divided by the Yangtze River, that is, the northern subtropical evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved forest zone (IVAii) and the mid-subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest zone (IVAi). (2) The temperature-related variables, such as annual temperature range (Bio7), the mean diurnal range (Bio2), and annual mean temperature (Bio1), were identified as the key determinants of the distribution pattern. Because of its considerable climatic variations in temperature and water conditions, Q. oxyphylla's habitat displayed a wider climate niche and strong physiological tolerance to climate change. (3) Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area of the species was expected to overall expand with significant regional differences. The suitable area in IVAi was expected to expand significantly northward while that in IVAii was expected to gradually shrink. To address the impact of climate change, it is necessary to develop conservation plans focused around the three distribution centers, implement localized and regional conservation policies, and conduct educational outreach among local people.

Climate change impact assessment of growing degree days and thermal growing period of cotton in north-west India

ABSTRACT Temperature is an indispensable necessity of plant growth, which explains the 95% variability in plant development. Accumulated temperature, i.e. growing degree day (GDD) is a useful agro-climatic indicator that translates raw climatic data into meaningful decisions. In this study, the GDD concept is used to analyze spatio-temporal variability of accumulated growing degree days (AGDD) and thermal growing period of cotton for the past and future climates in the three different zones (north-east, central and south-west) of Punjab. During the baseline period, higher AGDD were accumulated in the south-western (2,441 °C day), followed by central (2,276.8 °C day) and north-eastern (2,073.8 °C day) zones. During the end of mid-century, AGDD of the central zone was increased by 4–11%, 3–27% for north-eastern, and 3–7% for south-western zones in contrast to the baseline period. This increase in AGDD of cotton might decrease the thermal growing period by 6–14%, 8–25%, and 4–8% for central, north-east and south-western zones, clearly indicating the thermal stress over the cotton crop. This study provides quantitative information for crop breeders and cotton scientists to develop new genetically modified cultivars and improved agronomic practices to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change.

Climate change vulnerability and conservation strategies for tertiary relict tree species: Insights from landscape genomics ofTaxus cuspidata.

The unprecedented habitat fragmentation or loss has threatened the existence of many species. Therefore, it is essential to understand whether and how these species can pace with the environmental changes. Recent advantages in landscape genomics enabled us to identify molecular signatures of adaptation and predict how populations will respond to changing environments, providing new insights into the conservation of species. Here, we investigated the pattern of neutral and putative adaptive genetic variation and its response to changing environments in a tertiary relict tree species, Taxus cuspidata Sieb. et Zucc, which is distributed in northeast China and adjacent regions. We investigated the pattern of genetic diversity and differentiation using restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) and seven nuclear microsatellites (nSSRs) datasets. We further explored the endangered mechanism, predicted its vulnerability in the future, and provided guidelines for the conservation and management of this species. RAD-seq identified 16,087 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in natural populations. Both the SNPs and nSSRs datasets showed high levels of genetic diversity and low genetic differentiation in T. cuspidata. Outlier detection by F ST outlier analysis and genotype-environment associations (GEAs) revealed 598 outlier SNPs as putative adaptive SNPs. Linear redundancy analysis (RDA) and nonlinear gradient forest (GF) showed that the contribution of climate to genetic variation was greater than that of geography, and precipitation played an important role in putative adaptive genetic variation. Furthermore, the genetic offset and risk of non-adaptedness (RONA) suggested that the species at the northeast edge may be more vulnerable in the future. These results suggest that although the species has maintained high current genetic diversity in the face of recent habitat loss and fragmentation, future climate change is likely to threaten the survival of the species. Temperature (Bio03) and precipitation (Prec05) variables can be potentially used as predictors of response of T. cuspidata under future climate. Together, this study provides a theoretical framework for conservation and management strategies for wildlife species in the context of future climate change.

Identification of biodiversity hotspots for threatened mammal species under future climate

Climate change has led to changes in distribution, movement, and extinction risk for various wildlife species, raising concern among conservation biologists. Therefore, this study aimed to predict suitable habitats that help wildlife managers protect wildlife more effectively. To achieve our aim, we first evaluated the vulnerability of 183 terrestrial mammal species identified in Iran under climate change based on habitat, phenology and physiology, biotic interactions, and national protection status. Then, MaxEnt was used to predict the potential changes in the distribution of vulnerable species due to climate change in the next 70 years under two scenarios: SSP126 and SSP585. In the third step, a framework was employed to identify existing and future hotspots of mammal biodiversity, and the potential changes in these areas for the species were predicted in the next 70 years. The results showed that 69 terrestrial mammals were vulnerable to climate change. Subsequently, 15 species wereselected for modeling based on presence records and vulnerability to climate change. The species modeling results showed that 42 % of Iran’s habitats are currently suitable for the studied mammal species. In the future, under both climate scenarios, biodiversity hotspots for these species will be reduced, and approximately 37 % of Iran’s habitats will be suitable for the species. As a result, the current conservation network will have diminished capacity to protect the species from climate change.

Impacts of climate change on diarrhoeal disease hospitalisations: How does the global warming targets of 1.5-2°C affect Dhaka, Bangladesh?

Dhaka is one of the world's densely populated cities and faces significant public health challenges including high burden of diarrhoeal diseases. Climate change is intensifying existing environmental problems including urban heat island effect and poor water quality. While numerous epidemiological studies have linked meteorological factors to diarrhoeal diseases in Bangladesh, assessment of the impacts of future climate change on diarrhoeal diseases is scarce. We provide the assessment of climate change impacts on diarrhoeal disease in Dhaka and project future health risks under climate change scenarios. About 3 million acute diarrhoea cases presenting to the Dhaka Hospital of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh (icddr,b) during 1981-2010 were linked to daily temperature, rainfall and humidity and association investigated using time series adapted negative binomial regression models employing constrained distributed lag linear models. The findings were applied to climate projections to estimate future risks of diarrhoea under various global warming scenarios. There was a significantly raised risk of diarrhoea hospitalisation in all ages with daily mean temperature (RR: 3.4, 95% CI: 3.0-3.7) after controlling for the confounding effects of heavy rainfall, humidity, autocorrelations, day of the week effect, long-term time, and seasonal trends. Using the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.034, temperature increases based on the global warming targets of 1.5-2°C could result in an increase of diarrhoea hospitalisations by 4.5-7.4% in all age groups by the 2100s. These effects were more pronounced among <5 children where the predicted temperature increases could raise diarrhoea hospitalisation by 5.7% - 9.4%. Diarrhoea hospitalisation will increase significantly in Dhaka even if the global warming targets adopted by the Paris Agreement is reached. This underscores the importance of preparing the city for management and prevention of diarrhoeal diseases.

Quantifying the Impact of Future Climate Change on Flood Susceptibility: An Integration of CMIP6 Models, Machine Learning, and Remote Sensing

Quantifying the Impact of Future Climate Change on Flood Susceptibility: An Integration of CMIP6 Models, Machine Learning, and Remote Sensing

Towards more sustainable and inclusive development corridors in Africa

Abstract Development corridors are linear programmes of infrastructure and agriculture aiming to facilitate rapid socio-economic development. In Africa, they are a major development activity, with 88 underway or planned corridors. Drawing from extensive literature and insights gleaned from a 4 year research programme, this review scrutinizes the impacts of development corridors on people, wildlife and ecosystems in Kenya and Tanzania, proposing solutions to achieve better outcomes. The overarching goal was to discern the principle challenges emerging from the practical execution of the prevailing corridor model. The holistic approach taken, assessing the development corridors paradigm through an integrated ecological, social, and economic lens, provides novel insights that have not been possible using more traditional—siloed—research approaches. Eight key challenge areas are identified: impact assessments processes; coherence across international, national and local planning; governance; inclusivity; equality; impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services; incorporation of future climate risks; and integrated water resource management. Poorly planned and implemented corridors detrimentally impact livelihoods and ecosystems. They lack a sustainable development vision, detailed social, environmental or climate risk assessments, and develop incrementally in policy and corporate spaces. There is also often a disconnect between investors and recipient governments, with some investors funding what governments request without applying internationally-recognised safeguards, and governments lacking capacity and resources to enforce regulations. We make recommendations for addressing these challenge areas. These aim to enhance impact assessment efficacy; integrate local perspectives into effective and inclusive corridor planning; overcome siloed project development and implementation; anticipate future development projections; and prioritise landscape preservation for enhanced ecosystem services and climate resilience.