Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares Research Articles

Impact of digital transformation on financial stability in emerging markets: evidence from Ethiopia

This insightful study delves into the intricate relationship between key digital finance adoption indicators and the stability of the banking sector in Ethiopia, an emerging economy undergoing rapid digitalization. Covering annual data from 1991 to 2022 and utilizing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach alongside Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) techniques, the researchers uncover thought-provoking findings that challenge conventional wisdom. Contrary to expectations of a positive long-term association, the analysis reveals a statistically significant negative relationship between both internet usage and mobile phone subscriptions and Ethiopia's banking system's financial stability. This robust result, validated through rigorous robustness checks, suggests that the breakneck pace of digital transformation may outpace the development of robust regulatory frameworks and risk management practices, ultimately undermining the overall stability of the financial sector. Interestingly, the short-term analysis presents a more nuanced picture, with mobile phone subscriptions exhibiting a stabilizing effect in the immediate aftermath. This intriguing dichotomy highlights the complex and evolving dynamics at play, where the challenges of integrating digital finance with the traditional banking infrastructure and the persistence of informal financial activities potentially offset the benefits of enhanced financial inclusion and transaction efficiency. These thought-provoking findings carry crucial implications for policymakers and industry stakeholders navigating the digital revolution. Policy implications emphasize the need for robust regulatory frameworks, enhanced cyber security measures, and improved financial literacy. The findings underscore the importance of a nuanced approach to digital finance in emerging economies, advocating for continuous adaptation of policies to address the evolving landscape of financial technology. Continued inquiry can better guide policies that foster digital transformation while safeguarding stability, especially in rapidly developing regions like sub-Saharan Africa.Graphical

How do Macroeconomic Conditions Affect GDP? (BRICS Case Study)

One of the international institutions in the spotlight is BRICS. Because the countries incorporated in it (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have a fairly high income. Thus, the purpose of this study is to see what factors contribute to economic growth in BRICS countries. The method in this study is Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS). By using a variable of investment, labor force, and electrical energy consumption. Based on the results of the study, there is a positive influence on BRICS revenue.

Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin

One of the worst natural, economic, and social catastrophes caused by human activity is the Aral Sea crisis in Central Asia. The Aral Sea’s desiccation, which has an impact on the region’s overall sustainable development, human welfare, security, and survival, is what led to the problem. This study assesses the effects of economic expansion, population ageing, life expectancy, internet usage, and greenhouse gas emissions on the fertility rate in the countries that made up the Aral Sea basin between 1990 and 2021. Several econometric techniques were used in this study, including Pooled OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) with the Driscoll–Kraay estimating method, FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square), and DOLS (Dynamic Ordinary Least Square). Additionally, we used the Hurlin and Dumitrescu non-cause tests to verify the causal links between the variables. The empirical findings verify that a decrease in the fertility rate among women in the nations surrounding the Aral Sea occurs when the population of a certain age (women aged 15–64 as a percentage of the total population) grows and life expectancy rises. Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) also have an adverse effect on reproductive rates. Conversely, the region’s fertility rate may rise as a result of increased internet usage and economic growth. Furthermore, this study indicates that certain variables—aside from greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs)—have a causal relationship with the fertility rate.

Is there a direct benefit of using electronic commerce and electronic banking in mitigating climate change?

The main objective of the study is to highlight the impact that the use of electronic commerce (e-commerce), electronic banking (e-banking) services have on climate change in European Union (EU) countries. Thus, we built a panel model to evaluate the correlations between e-commerce, e–banking, electronic sales channels, and climate change mitigation during 2011–2022 period for the EU countries. Furthermore, we applied the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method including three independent variables that evaluate the use of digital commerce applications and the dependent variable for climate change. A significant revelation of the study is the positive contribution of e-commerce activities to climate change mitigation. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the role of e-banking in decreasing the consequences of climate change. However, the study also uncovers a more complex aspect regarding electronic sales channels. It finds that not all forms of electronic sales are effective in reducing climate change impacts. Thus, the study highlights the potential benefits of e-commerce and e-banking in the context of climate change mitigation, while also warning against a one-size-fits-all approach to the adoption of digital commerce models. These findings have important implications for policymakers, businesses, and researchers aiming to align digital transformation with sustainable development goals.

CORRUPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: DOES DATA SUPPORT “GREASE THE WHEELS” OR “SAND THE WHEELS”?

The study investigated the relationship between corruption and economic growth in Nigeria using data from 1996 to 2020. The research employed the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method and Granger causality tests. The FMOLS results indicated that both gross fixed capital formation and urbanization significantly and positively influence economic growth in Nigeria, whereas the corruption index has a negative and significant effect, aligning with the "sand the wheels" theory. The Granger causality analysis showed a unidirectional relationship, where gross fixed capital formation Granger-causes GDP growth rate, and GDP growth rate Granger-causes both the corruption index and the relative corruption ranking in Nigeria. Based on these results, the study recommends that policymakers prioritise transparency and good governance by implementing e-governance initiatives to reduce bureaucratic hurdles and opportunities for corruption. Furthermore, there should be consistent monitoring and thorough evaluation of the impact of anti-corruption strategies on economic growth and development to ensure their effectiveness.

Dual carbon economy modeling in advanced economies

Utilizing the cross-sectional fully modified OLS (FMOLS) method, this paper tackles the pressing need to address climate change disasters, particularly in the context of recent COVID-19 restrictions. By developing an econometric model specifically for advanced economies, the study aims to enhance understanding and reduce carbon emissions. Examining ten advanced economies from 1995 to 2019, it identifies a significant gap in the literature concerning the integration of demographic, social, economic, and political (DSEP) factors in dual carbon economy models. The results show that a 1% improvement in good governance is associated with a 0.23% reduction in carbon footprint, due to stricter environmental regulations. In contrast, a 1% increase in economic growth results in a 0.17% rise in carbon footprint, driven by industrial activities. Similarly, a 1% rise in electricity consumption leads to a 0.32% increase in carbon footprint, reflecting dependence on fossil fuels. Additionally, a 1% increase in population size corresponds to a 0.21% rise in carbon footprint, linked to higher urban energy consumption. Finally, a 1% increase in the poverty ratio results in a 0.17% rise in carbon footprint, underscoring the influence of socio-economic factors on sustainability. The paper advocates for a comprehensive approach to fostering a dual carbon economy, emphasizing green economic growth, smart, sustainable cities, social sustainability literacy, and sustainable governance.

Effect of geopolitical risk on energy consumption policy: New empirical evidence from BRICS

This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on energy consumption. For empirical analysis, we utilize the dataset of BRICS nations spanning 25 years from 1998 to 2022. We employ three econometric models, namely fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), to analyze the relationships between GPR and energy consumption. Our empirical findings reveal several significant insights. Firstly, we observe a substantial negative influence of GPR on both fossil fuel energy consumption (FEC) and total energy consumption (TEC). This suggests that higher levels of GPR are associated with reduced utilization of fossil fuels and overall energy consumption within the BRICS countries. Conversely, we identify a significant positive effect of GPR on renewable energy consumption (REC). This implies that, as GPR rises, there is a corresponding increase in the adoption and usage of renewable energy sources. Furthermore, our analysis uncovers the presence of asymmetric effects pertaining to other key determinants of energy consumption, including FDI inflow, economic growth, banking sector development, and inflation rate. This study offers fresh empirical evidence on the intricate interplay between GPR and energy consumption in BRICS nations, shedding light on the significant impacts of GPR and the nuanced effects of various economic factors. These findings have important implications for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to navigate energy policy decisions in a geopolitically dynamic world.

Unveiling the impact of remittances on productive efficiencies: investigating productivity growth of prominent remittance-receiving developing nations

PurposeThe present study reviews the theoretical and empirical literature about the significance of international migrants' remittance to empirically analyse the effect of remittance on the productivity growth of developing countries using a panel dataset from 1991 to 2021.Design/methodology/approachThe study utilised the data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) to measure nationwide production efficiencies. It first performed a unit root test, cointegration test and pool mean group autoregressive distributed lag (PMG-ARDL) technique. To assess the robustness of the findings, the study also uses dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified OLS (FMOLS) estimators.FindingsThe results demonstrated that remittances are a significant source of funding that promotes innovation [i.e. technological progress (TEC)] and hastens the country's total factor productivity (TFP) growth. However, the study needed to have established the effect of inward remittances on the nation's technical efficiency (EFF).Research limitations/implicationsAs remittances encourage innovation and TFP growth (TFPG), the concerned governments must create favourable and enabling economic environments to increase remittance inflows, which will have far-reaching growth repercussions.Originality/valueThe present study emphasises the connection between remittances and productivity growth, the disintegration of TFP, advanced econometric techniques and contribution to research policy. Despite prior literature exploring the effect of remittances on economic growth, a dearth of literature exists on how remittances affect a country's productivity. The output-based MPI methodology used in this study offered a nuanced understanding of how remittances affect many facets of productivity growth in developing nations.

On the Way to Net Zero Emissions. Can Environmental Tax be the Game Changer? The Vise Grad Group Evidence

Today, protecting the environment is a top issue for global policy. In essence, the literature has identified several macroeconomic problems as factors in environmental deterioration. The purpose of the investigation was to explore environmental deterioration (EVD) and energy consumption (ENC) by Vise grad regions. Environmental taxes (ENTX) and carbon taxes have been proving to be a significant factor in carbon mitigation. The analysis was carried out for the period 1994-2021, employing the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS). The empirical evaluation indicates that ENC had a positive while ENTX had a negative nexus with EVD for the Vise grad nations. Similarly, the moderating role of ENTX*ENC – EVD exhibited an inverse affiliation. In the long run, the dependence on non-renewable energy appreciates EVD. However, effective policy implementation of ENTX will lead to quality of the environment. The empirical results have shown that ENTX can be employed to control the demand and utilization of coal, gas, and nuclear in the Vise grad regions. This research offers policymakers and government organizations in these areas a reference point for their investments in more eco-friendly technology, human capital, urbanization, trade openness, and appropriate environmental levies to demonstrate the quality of the environment.

The role of Islamic banks in promoting economic growth and financial stability: Evidence from Saudi Arabia

The aim of this study is to provide a suitable empirical framework for the interaction between Islamic finance, financial stability, and economic development. Additionally, it is an attempt to empirically evaluate how the levels of financial system stability and economic growth in an oil-rich nation are affected by the financing provided by Islamic banks. The study employs the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and quantile regression (QR) based on quarterly data from 2013 to 2022. The findings indicate strong evidence that Islamic banking finance supports economic growth and improves financial system stability. Moreover, the study highlights that this positive relationship is negatively affected by inflation rates and levels of economic policy uncertainty. Financial inclusion has an important positive impact on both dependent variables, reinforcing this link. Furthermore, oil rents in Saudi Arabia (KSA) have contributed to improving economic development and supporting the financial sector’s development to achieve economic diversification as outlined in the Saudi Vision 2030. These findings confirm the necessity of paying attention to developing Islamic banking and increasing its market share by creating products and services that achieve economic efficiency in accordance with suitable policies for making the financial sector a strategic sector that supports economic development in KSA. AcknowledgmentThis work was supported and funded by the Deanship of Scientific Research at Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU) (grant number IMSIU-RPP2023024).

A waste Kuznet curve: The negative shadows of tourism industry in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia using fully modified and dynamic ordinary least squares

This empirical study investigates the relationship between the tourism industry and municipal solid waste (MSW) creation in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, to determine whether a Waste Kuznet Curve (WKC) exists. The study runs from 2014 to 2020, using data acquired from several government official websites in ten Regencies/Districts. Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) regression approaches were employed to analyze this relationship. This inquiry yielded three important discoveries. First, a significant and negative link is seen between the development of the tourism business and the increase in MSW output. This demonstrates that the booming tourism sector hurts environmental conditions, exacerbating environmental issues that require government intervention. This empirical study investigates the relationship between the tourism industry and MSW creation in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, to determine whether a WKC exists.

Geo-political risks, uncertainty, financial development, renewable energy, and carbon intensity: Empirical evidence from countries at high geo-political risks

Geopolitical risks and uncertainty negatively affect the economy and environmental quality. High geopolitical risks and high uncertainty increase carbon emission intensity by increasing dependence on fossil fuels. However, research in this area is still in its infancy and more empirical evidence is needed to justify the causal link. This research examines the causal mechanism linking geopolitical risk, uncertainty, financial development, renewable energy, and carbon intensity in a sample of eighteen countries with high geopolitical risk between 1985 and 2021. The selected countries have a high intensity of geopolitical risks due to internal and external conflicts that have worsened in recent years. We employ cointegration techniques from Hatemi-J [1] and Maki [2] in the presence of structural breaks, fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), canonical cointegration regression (CCR) models, and static time-variant Granger causality (1969) test. We find robust empirical evidence that geopolitical risk, financial development, renewable energy, uncertainty, and carbon intensity have a cointegrating relationship in the presence of structural breaks. Results from FMOLS and CCR models indicate that carbon intensity responds differently to changes in geopolitical risk, renewable energy, uncertainty, and financial development. Environmental and energy policymakers should mitigate carbon intensity through long-run rather than short-run mechanisms to achieve SDG12 and SDG13.

Financial inclusion and environmental pollution in sub-Saharan Africa: moderating effects of economic growth and renewable energy

A thriving literature exists about the role of financial inclusion in socio-economic development. Nevertheless, the environmental effects of financial inclusion are largely unknown in the literature, especially in sub-Saharan African countries. Therefore, this study explores the association between financial inclusion and CO2 emissions utilizing data from 23 sub-Saharan Africa for the period 2004–2019. Based on different estimation methods such as dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), canonical correlation regression (CCR), and an instrumental variable generalized-method of moment (IV-GMM), the results show that financial inclusion is responsible for a substantial increase in CO2 emissions. In addition, financial inclusion moderates economic growth, resulting in higher CO2 emissions. Alternatively, financial inclusion moderates renewable energy use to lower CO2 emissions. The outcomes also verify the presence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis (EKC). This study proposes uniting financial inclusion and environmental policies as a strategy for reducing CO2 emissions in sub-Saharan Africa.

Does the environmental Phillips curve hypothesis hold within the Ghanaian context?

This study examines the relationship between environmental quality and unemployment in Ghana using annual data spanning the period from 1990 to 2019. It also assesses the impact of gender-segregated unemployment rate on environmental quality. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) error correction model to estimate the relationship among the variables. In addition, the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimation procedures were employed to check for robustness of the ARDL results. Findings indicate a positive effect of total unemployment rate on environmental quality in Ghana in the long-run and also in the short-run. In the case of the gender-segregated unemployment, the findings reveal that in both short-run and long-run, a rise in female unemployment causes a deterioration in environmental quality in Ghana. The results also validated the Environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) hypothesis in the case of male unemployment. Thus, given that there is no general pattern in the findings, the study concludes that the Environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) hypothesis does not hold within the Ghanaian context.

How does economic policy uncertainty influence energy policy? The role of financial sector development

It is necessary to warrant the long-term viability of the energy policy for sustainable economic growth. However, certain factors exist that can create a threat to energy policy. In this essence, the current analysis explores the impact of EPU (economic policy uncertainty) and financial sector development on fossil fuel energy, renewable energy (REC), and total energy (EGY). The empirical analysis utilized the CS-ARDL model and focused on a sample comprising G7 economies. The robustness of analysis was examined by employing fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) technique. The estimated coefficients outline the significant negative impact of all main explanatory variables on fossil fuel energy and total energy and EGY in the long run and a significant negative impact on renewable energy in the short run. The findings further demonstrate the significant positive impact of financial development on fossil fuel energy and total energy and the significant negative relationship between financial development and renewable energy. Particularly, the analysis discloses the moderating role of financial development in the EPU-energy policy nexus. It is advised to policy officials that they should enhance the cooperation between the financial sector and the energy sector for the success of energy policy and for responding to the uncertain economic situation. This study robust the empirical findings of studies exploring the EPU-energy nexus and extends the literature by pointing out the moderating role of FCD.

Moving toward sustainable goals 7 and 13: An inclusive mechanism to achieve environmental sustainability through digitalization and energy transition in OECD countries

In line with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 7 and 13, this study proposes a policy framework while considering digitalization as a critical tool in shaping the energy transition process to attain environmental suitability in OECD countries. The study employed multifaceted empirical techniques, including Method of Moment Quantile Regression (MMQR), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Dumitrescu and Hurlin (D-H), augmented with robustness tests over the period 2000 to 2021. The results indicate that digitalization augments energy transition and green finance to attain environmental sustainability. However, moving toward higher quantiles (4th, 6th, and 8th), the total impact of energy transition and digitalization is diminished. Besides that, a bidirectional causal relationship was reported running from green finance and digitalization to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study offers a detailed policy framework while considering SDGs 7 and 13.

A comprehensive analysis of the impact of greenhouse gases, energy usage, institutional quality and globalization on health: A case study of selected developing nations

AbstractThis study inspects the health consequences of greenhouse gases, energy use, institutional quality and globalization for the 23 developing economies. Utilizing panel data from 2000 to 2022, various estimation techniques, including static models (pooled, fixed and random), the two‐step systemGeneralized Methods of Moments (GMM and Panel Auto Regressive Distributive Model (PARDL), are applied to investigate the short‐ and long‐term effects of greenhouse gases, energy use, institutional quality and globalization on health. Panel causality tests, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) are employed to ensure robustness and causal linkage among variables. The results confirmed a positive association between health and its lag value. Institutional quality negatively influences health expenditure, while greenhouse gases, energy use and globalization exhibit an increasing effect on health expenditure. Life expectancy, institutional quality, energy use and globalization have favourable effects, while greenhouse gases negatively affect health outcomes. In Model 1, energy usage and health expenditures have two‐way causality, and green house gases and energy use in Model 2 have a bi‐directional causal linkage. All variables exhibit unidirectional causality, except globalization and institutional quality, as shown by the Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality test. The study complements the literature by stating that institutional quality is the key instrument for managing the negative consequences of the recent increase in globalization and energy use and their detrimental impact on health in developing economies.

Public investment on renewable energy R&D Projects: The role of geopolitical risk, and economic and political uncertainties

Recently, there has been growing concern about the impacts of geopolitical tension as well as economic and political uncertainties on the decision-making process of governments when it comes to allocating resources for renewable energy R&D. This paper employs the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), cross-sectional panel autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) technique to examine the impacts of geopolitical risk, economic and political uncertainties, renewable energy technologies innovations, government financial affordability and CO2 emissions on government spending on renewable energy research and development projects. The novel aspects of the panel ARDL and CS-ARDL methodologies lie in their ability to capture both short-run and long-run dynamics within a panel data framework, as well as their ability to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the relationships under investigation. The empirical results presented in this paper indicate that in the face of ongoing geopolitical tension, as well as economic and political uncertainties, financially capable governments continue to increase their investments in renewable energy R&D in the long run. This strategic move aims to safeguard the supply of renewable energy, uphold economic and political policy credibility, maintain a first-mover advantage, and establish control over the intellectual property rights associated with renewable energy technology.

The longitudinal relationship between tourism, electricity consumption, and CO2 emissions

The objective of the study is to determine the electricity use, and tourism industry environmental impacts, and increase in CO2 emissions in Pakistan. What are the linkages of foreign direct investment, intercountryal trade, gross domestict product, and CO2 emissions. The study has applied the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to analysis the data set from 1985 to 2023. The robustness test is applied using Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS), and Fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). The results reveal that the increase in the electricity use, and tourism industry has significant negative impacts on CO2 emissions in both short- and long-run. The increase in intercountry trade effects the Domestic Product growth (GDP) growth and causes to increase in use of fossil fuels, which are the major source of CO2 emissions. The increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) increase the GDP growth, and FDI also increase the CO2 emissions in Pakistan. The results suggests that the incresae in the renewal energy consumption for the electricity production and transportation can help to decrease the CO2 emissions in Pakistan.

Does Mobile Technology Help to Deepen Financial Inclusion? Evidence from South Africa

ABSTRACT Despite the huge penetration of mobile telephone in South Africa, the country lags its peers (upper middle-income economies) on some financial inclusion metrics such as bank account access and the usage of financial products. Thus, the study investigates the impact of mobile technology on financial inclusion in South Africa over the period 1980–2021, while also looking at the transmission channels. The study adopts a battery of econometric techniques such as the ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique, the fully modified OLS (FMOLS), and the Dynamic OLS (DOLS). The study finds that mobile technology does not help to deepen financial inclusion (when financial inclusion is measured by the number of commercial bank branches per 100, 000 adults). While mobile technology deepens financial inclusion (when measured by volume of credit by the financial sector/GDP). This implies that expanding the digital economy may help to deepen access to credit in South Africa. However, the results also indicate that the effect of mobile technology on financial inclusion may not be direct but through investment in education to improve the citizens’ capability and preparedness to cope with innovative technologies. The research and policy implications are discussed.