Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin

Abstract

One of the worst natural, economic, and social catastrophes caused by human activity is the Aral Sea crisis in Central Asia. The Aral Sea’s desiccation, which has an impact on the region’s overall sustainable development, human welfare, security, and survival, is what led to the problem. This study assesses the effects of economic expansion, population ageing, life expectancy, internet usage, and greenhouse gas emissions on the fertility rate in the countries that made up the Aral Sea basin between 1990 and 2021. Several econometric techniques were used in this study, including Pooled OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) with the Driscoll–Kraay estimating method, FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square), and DOLS (Dynamic Ordinary Least Square). Additionally, we used the Hurlin and Dumitrescu non-cause tests to verify the causal links between the variables. The empirical findings verify that a decrease in the fertility rate among women in the nations surrounding the Aral Sea occurs when the population of a certain age (women aged 15–64 as a percentage of the total population) grows and life expectancy rises. Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) also have an adverse effect on reproductive rates. Conversely, the region’s fertility rate may rise as a result of increased internet usage and economic growth. Furthermore, this study indicates that certain variables—aside from greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs)—have a causal relationship with the fertility rate.