Effect of geopolitical risk on energy consumption policy: New empirical evidence from BRICS

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on energy consumption. For empirical analysis, we utilize the dataset of BRICS nations spanning 25 years from 1998 to 2022. We employ three econometric models, namely fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), to analyze the relationships between GPR and energy consumption. Our empirical findings reveal several significant insights. Firstly, we observe a substantial negative influence of GPR on both fossil fuel energy consumption (FEC) and total energy consumption (TEC). This suggests that higher levels of GPR are associated with reduced utilization of fossil fuels and overall energy consumption within the BRICS countries. Conversely, we identify a significant positive effect of GPR on renewable energy consumption (REC). This implies that, as GPR rises, there is a corresponding increase in the adoption and usage of renewable energy sources. Furthermore, our analysis uncovers the presence of asymmetric effects pertaining to other key determinants of energy consumption, including FDI inflow, economic growth, banking sector development, and inflation rate. This study offers fresh empirical evidence on the intricate interplay between GPR and energy consumption in BRICS nations, shedding light on the significant impacts of GPR and the nuanced effects of various economic factors. These findings have important implications for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to navigate energy policy decisions in a geopolitically dynamic world.