Frequency Of Extreme Temperature Events Research Articles

Heatwave‐mediated decreases in phytoplankton quality negatively affect zooplankton productivity

Abstract Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme temperature events. The effect of heatwaves on phytoplankton is of particular concern because they are a key source of C, N, P and essential fatty acids to aquatic ecosystems. Laboratory studies have demonstrated that phytoplankton grown at warmer temperatures are a lower quality food source, but how heatwaves affect phytoplankton quality at the community scale is currently unclear. Here we address this knowledge gap by growing natural assemblages of freshwater phytoplankton at “ambient”, “constant warming” or “heatwave” conditions. We next fed these phytoplankton communities to natural assemblages of zooplankton to test the prediction that zooplankton that consume heatwave‐exposed phytoplankton will exhibit reductions in biomass. Our experiment demonstrated that zooplankton that consumed “heatwave” phytoplankton attained lower community biomass than those fed “constant warming” or “ambient” phytoplankton. Additionally, despite receiving similar total heat input, phytoplankton exposed to “heatwave” conditions contained lower C, N, P and fatty acid concentrations compared to phytoplankton grown in “constant warming” conditions. Correlations between zooplankton biomass and all measured phytoplankton traits revealed that decreases in zooplankton biomass were best explained by low quantities of C, N and monounsaturated fatty acids in “heatwave” phytoplankton. Our study demonstrates that the effects of heatwaves on phytoplankton quality are clearly distinct from those caused by constant warming temperatures and that heatwave‐mediated decreases in resource quality have immediate effects on consumer productivity. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Spatiotemporal Trends of Extreme Temperature Events Along the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Transportation Corridor From 1981 to 2019 Based on Estimated Near‐Surface Air Temperature

AbstractThe intensification of global warming leads to the increased frequency of extreme temperature events. Many studies have reported on numerous regions facing extreme hot and cold temperatures to some degree. In this study, the daily maximum, minimum and mean near‐surface air temperatures were estimated to explore the detailed spatial trends of extreme temperature events along the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Transportation Corridor (QTPTC). Sixteen extreme temperature indices were used to represent extreme temperature events, and the Mann‐Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimation method were employed to explore the spatiotemporal trends of extreme temperatures along the QTPTC during 1981–2019. The possible factors that affect the trends of extreme temperature events were also discussed, indicating that: (a) There was an exacerbation of extreme hot events, while the prevalence of extreme cold events weakened along the QTPTC. This was in accordance with the trend of global warming. (b) The trends of extreme temperature indices based on daily minimum temperature were stronger than those based on daily maximum temperature in most areas, except for the eastern region. Furthermore, as altitude increased, the amplitude of warming intensified. (c) Unlike the trend in most areas, the intensified warming trend occurred in the low‐altitude areas in the eastern region where there are more human activities and rapid urbanization, and the daily maximum temperature trend was more severe there. The results can provide references for policymakers to formulate corresponding adaptation strategies, addressing the impacts of extreme temperature events on transportation facilities with significant elevation differences.

Variations of Extreme Temperature Event Indices in Six Temperature Zones in China from 1961 to 2020

In this study, eight extreme temperature event indices were calculated based on daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperature data recorded at 699 National Reference Stations in China during 1961–2020. The yearly change of mean temperature and the magnitude, frequency, and duration of extreme temperature events in six temperature zones were evaluated. All temperature zones had a trend of an increase in mean temperature (rate: 2.1–3.3 °C per 10 years), and the warming was more significant in the warm temperate zone and the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau zone (QPZ). For extreme temperature events, the extreme maximum and minimum temperatures in most temperature zones showed significant trends of increase, and the rates of increase were greater in the northern zones and QPZ. The rate of increase in extreme minimum temperature was substantially (up to three times) higher than the rate of increase in extreme maximum temperature in the same temperature zone; however, the finding was the opposite for the cold temperate zone (CTZ), which is the northernmost region of China. The rate of increase in extreme maximum temperatures was the greatest (0.35 °C per 10 years), whereas the rate of increase in extreme minimum temperatures was the smallest (0.17 °C per 10 years). The number of warm days/nights and the warm spell duration index also showed significant trends of increase that were most obvious in the southern zones and QPZ. In the tropical zone (TZ), which is the southernmost part of mainland China, the number of warm nights was only 15.3 days in 1961–1970, whereas it increased to 61.9 days in 2011–2020 (an increase of 303.9%). The rate of increase in warm nights in TZ (8.8 days per 10 years) was four times that in CTZ (2.2 days per 10 years). The number of cold days/nights and the cold spell duration index showed significant trends of decrease, with the greatest rates of reduction in QPZ and TZ. In evaluating the frequency of extreme temperature events, the amplitude of warming of the night index was found to be greater than that of the day index. In evaluating the duration of extreme temperature events, the variation of the cold index was found to be greater than that of the warm index. The notable asymmetries found in the variations of the minimum/maximum temperatures, day/night indices, and cold/warm spell durations in China are direct manifestations of global warming.

The Impact of Extreme Temperatures on Grain Production in the Huaihe River Basin

The Huaihe River Basin is an important major grain producing area in China, maintaining the stability of grain output is of great significance to food security. However, with global warming, the frequency of extreme temperature events has increased, and the frequent meteorological disasters have brought great challenges to the stable supply of food production. In this paper, the impact of extreme temperature on grain production in the Huaihe River Basin was analyzed by using the daily temperature and agricultural production related data of 28 prefecture-level cities in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt from 2001 to 2020. The following conclusions are drawn: 1) The influence coefficient of extreme high temperature on grain production in the Huaihe River Basin is -0.021, extreme low temperature has no significant impact on food production. 2) The effects of extreme temperature on food production in different regions in the river basin were heterogeneous, but the overall impact was negative. The influence coefficients of extremely high temperature days on the eastern region and Midwest region were -0.035 and -0.052, respectively, while the influence coefficients of extremely low temperature days on the eastern region were -0.413. The results showed that the increase in the number of extremely high temperature days would reduce production in the eastern region andMidwest region of the basin, while the northern region was not significantly affected by extreme heat. The increase in the number of extremely low temperature days will reduce grain production in the eastern region, and the impact on the Midwest region and the northern region will not be significant. Based on the above conclusions, three suggestions are put forward to maintain the safety of food production in the Huaihe River Basin: 1) enhance the ability to detect climate change in the basin; 2) Protect the stability of grain cultivated land in the river basin; 3) Innovative breeding of climate-resilient food crop seeds.

Early 21st Century Trends of Temperature Extremes over the Northwest Himalayas

The rising intensity and frequency of extreme temperature events are caused due to climate change and are likely to affect the entire world. In this context, the Himalayas are reported to be very sensitive to changes in temperature extremes. In this study, we investigate the variability of temperature extremes over the Northwest Himalayas in the early 21st century (2000–2018). Here, we used 14 temperature indices recommended by ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices). The present study reveals the trends of extreme temperature indices on the spatial scale for the western part of the Northwest Himalayas. The 14 temperature indices were used to assess the behavior of extreme temperature trends with their significance. This study reports that the northwestern region of the study area has a cooling effect due to an increase in the trends of cold spells, cold days/nights, and frost days, while the southwestern region significantly shows the warming effects due to the increasing trends in warm spells, warm days/nights, and summer days. On the other hand, the eastern region of the study area shows mixed behavior, i.e., some places show warm effects while some reveal cold effects in the early 21st century. Overall, this study implies the northwestern parts have cooling trends while the southwestern and southeastern parts have warming trends during the early 21st century.

Grain Quality Characterization of Hybrid Rice Restorer Lines with Resilience to Suboptimal Temperatures during Filling Stage.

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is a staple food that is consumed worldwide, and hybrid rice has been widely employed in many countries to greatly increase yield. However, the frequency of extreme temperature events is increasing, presenting a serious challenge to rice grain quality. Improving hybrid rice grain quality has become crucial for ensuring consumer acceptance. This study compared the differences in milling quality, appearance quality, and physical and chemical starch properties of rice grains of five restorer lines (the male parent of hybrid rice) when they encountered naturally unfavorable temperatures during the filling period under field conditions. High temperatures (HTs) and low temperatures (LTs) had opposite effects on grain quality, and the effect was correlated with rice variety. Notably, R751, R313, and Yuewangsimiao (YWSM) were shown to be superior restorer lines with good resistance to both HT and LT according to traits such as head rice rate, chalkiness degree, chalky rice rate, amylose content, alkali spreading value, and pasting properties. However, Huazhan and 8XR274 were susceptible to sub-optimal temperatures at the grain-filling stage. Breeding hybrid rice with adverse-temperature-tolerant restorer lines can not only ensure high yield via heterosis but also produce superior grain quality. This could ensure the quantity and taste of rice as a staple food in the future, when extreme temperatures will occur increasingly frequently.

Pre-exposure to a variable temperature treatment improves the response of Acropora cervicornis to acute thermal stress

Given that global warming is the greatest threat to coral reefs, coral restoration projects have expanded worldwide with the goal of replenishing habitats whose reef-building corals succumbed to various stressors. In many cases, however, these efforts will be futile if outplanted corals are unable to withstand warmer oceans and an increased frequency of extreme temperature events. Stress-hardening is one approach proposed to increase the thermal tolerance of coral genotypes currently grown for restoration. Previous studies have shown that corals from environments with natural temperature variability experience less bleaching when exposed to thermal stress, though it remains unclear if this localized acclimatization or adaptation to variable temperatures can be operationalized for enhancing restoration efforts. To evaluate this approach, fragments from six source colonies of nursery-raised Caribbean staghorn coral (Acropora cervicornis) were treated with a variable temperature regime (oscillating twice per day from 28 to 31 °C) or static temperatures (28 °C) in the laboratory for 89 d. Following this, fragments were subjected to a heat-stress assay (32 °C) for 2 weeks. Corals treated with variable temperatures manifested signs of severe thermal stress later than static temperature laboratory controls as well as untreated field controls collected from the nursery. Furthermore, there was a stark contrast in the physiological response to heat stress, whereby the laboratory and field control groups had a significantly higher incidence of rapid tissue sloughing and necrosis, while the variable temperature-treated corals succumbed to bleaching more gradually. Overall, our data show that pre-acclimation to a variable temperature regime improves acroporid thermotolerance. As corals continue to be outplanted back onto Florida’s changing reef scape, understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying this enhanced thermal tolerance and its endurance in situ will be critical for future research and restoration applications.

Growth Performance and Transcriptomic Response of Warm-Acclimated Hybrid Abalone Haliotis rufescens (♀) × H. corrugata (♂).

Along the Pacific coast of the Baja California Peninsula (Mexico), abalone represents one of the most lucrative fisheries. As wild populations are currently depleted, abalone farm production aims to balance the decreasing populations with the increasing demand. The Mexican abalone aquaculture is almost entirely based on red abalone (Haliotis rufescens). However, the increasing frequency of extreme temperature events is hampering this activity. The use interspecific hybrids can potentially improve abalone culture, as species have differences in their thermal tolerance. Therefore, the hybrid progeny between H. rufescens (♀) and pink abalone H. corrugata (♂), a temperate and a warmer water abalone species, respectively, will naturally support higher temperature. To test this hypothesis, growth rate, mortality and metabolic rate of both pure (RR) and hybrid abalone (RP) were assessed under the H. rufescens' optimum (18°C) and thermally stressed (22°C) conditions. To unveil the molecular pathways involved in the heat response, transcriptional profiling of both crosses was also investigated. At high temperature, we observed constrained growth and survival in RR while RP showed a significant increase in both rates, supporting the improved performance of the hybrid compared. These results match with the transcriptional profiling of hybrids showing higher expression of genes involved in growth and calcification, whereas in the pure red progeny, the transcriptional profile was mainly associated with the regulation of necroptosis process. Our results may contribute to propose new management plans to increase farm abalone production in Baja California.

Effects of spring and summer extreme climate events on the autumn phenology of different vegetation types of Inner Mongolia, China, from 1982 to 2015

Abstract Terrestrial ecosystem vegetation phenological responses to extreme climates have attracted increasing attention due to the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events related to global climate change. In this study, we obtained 11 extreme climate indices and end-of-season (EOS) data from 1982 to 2015 to evaluate the effects of spring and summer extreme climate events on the EOS of different vegetation types of Inner Mongolia. The results show that for spring and summer extreme temperature events, the intensity and frequency of extreme temperature events associated with low temperatures were significantly reduced, while those associated with high temperatures were significantly increased, and the change of the diurnal temperature range (DTR) was not obvious. For extreme precipitation events, the intensity (RX1day, Rx5day) showed a decreasing trend. For EOS, there was a delay in the forest, forest steppe, northern typical Ⅱ and southern steppe desert and an advance in other regions. The EOS changes in the desert steppe, forest steppe and typical steppe II were mainly affected by warm days (TX90p); those in the forest and typical steppe I were mainly affected by warm nights (TN90p); and those in the sand desert and steppe desert were mainly affected by the cold indices TN10p and TX10p, respectively. Future predictions of extreme climate events based on the Hurst exponent show that continued increases in the TX90p and TN90p and continued decreases in the TX10p and TN10p will still affect the EOS in future. It is verified that the Hurst exponent can be used to predict future extreme climate event trends in Inner Mongolia. This research enriches our understanding of the factors that influence vegetation phenology and provides a scientific basis for formulating scientific and rational regional vegetation restoration strategies and disaster warning networks.

River modification reduces climate resilience of brown trout (Salmo trutta) populations in Ireland

AbstractThis study investigated interactions between eco‐hydromorphological state, riparian vegetation cover, water temperature and fish community composition in lowland rivers in Ireland. Physical habitat modification of study sites corresponded with degraded eco‐hydromorphological state (degree of ecological and physical modification) and reduced thermal buffering capacity (greater temperature fluctuation and increased frequency of extreme temperature events). This impact was reflected in the fish community, with a shift from a brown trout‐dominated (Salmo trutta L.) fish assemblage to predominance of the more thermally plastic minnow, Phoxinus phoxinus (L.), and stone loach, Barbatula barbatula (L.). Eco‐hydromorphological state may be a central factor affecting the ability of temperate rivers to resist temperature change in a warming climate and to maintain suitable conditions for salmonids and other cold‐water biota. Strategies aimed at climate change proofing of temperate rivers should focus on preserving or re‐establishing the eco‐hydromorphological processes that create habitat complexity and buffer stream temperature.

On the low-frequency variability of wintertime Euro-Atlantic planetary wave-breaking

Planetary wave-breaking can lead to large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies and favour high-impact weather occurrences. For example, the simultaneous occurrence of anti-cyclonic wave-breaking to the south of the North Atlantic jet and cyclonic wave-breaking to the north, here termed double wave-breaking, has been linked to heightened frequencies of explosive cyclones in the Atlantic basin and destructive windstorms over Western and Continental Europe. The present study analyses the long-term temporal variability of wintertime cyclonic and anti-cyclonic wave-breaking, and the resulting double wave-breaking, in the North Atlantic. We use reanalysis data, proxy reconstructions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a 1000-year coupled global climate model equilibrium simulation under constant pre-industrial forcing. The wave-breaking wavelet spectra highlight a significant ultra-centennial variability in double wave-breaking frequency, which is largely mirrored in the variability of the NAO. However, we note that the NAO wavelet spectra in the different datasets display significant discrepancies. The low-frequency wave-breaking variability is reflected in long-term anomalies of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Euro-Atlantic sector. The 100-year periods with the most and least double wave-breaking occurrences display significant and opposite anomalies in both upper and lower-level wind, as well as in the frequency of extreme temperature events and in the magnitude of wind destructiveness over Europe. The latter broadly resembles the wind destructiveness anomalies associated with individual double wave-breaking instances in reanalysis data. The existence of low-frequency variability in an atmospheric pattern related to high-impact weather events has important implications for the study and interpretation of climate change projections and of possible future NAO changes.

Effects of temperature and salinity on prevalence and intensity of infection of blue crabs, Callinectes sapidus, by Vibrio cholerae, V. parahaemolyticus, and V. vulnificus in Louisiana.

Coastal marine and estuarine environments are experiencing higher average temperatures, greater frequency of extreme temperature events, and altered salinities. These changes are expected to stress organisms and increase their susceptibility to infectious diseases. However, beyond these generalities, little is known about how environmental factors influence host-pathogen relationships in the marine realm. We investigated the prevalence and intensity of infections by Vibrio cholerae, V. parahaemolyticus, and V. vulnificus in blue crabs, Callinectes sapidus, from Louisiana saltmarshes in relation to temperature and salinity. We evaluated relationships for single measurements taken at the time of collection and for more complex measurements representing accumulated exposure to physiologically-stressful environmental conditions for up to 31 days prior to collection. We found that: (1) prevalence of infection varied across the Louisiana coast, (2) prevalence of all three Vibrio species was influenced by temperature and salinity, and (3) measurements that represent accumulated exposure to extreme conditions are useful predictors of infection prevalence and can provide insights into underlying biological mechanisms.

Decadal shifts of the frequency of extreme temperature events in Punjab

Decadal shifts of the frequency of extreme temperature events in Punjab

Limited scope for plasticity to increase upper thermal limits

Summary Increases in average temperature and the frequency of extreme temperature events are likely to pose a major risk to species already close to their upper physiological thermal limits. The extent to which thermal phenotypic plasticity can buffer these changes and whether plasticity is constrained by basal tolerance levels remains unknown. We examined the effect of developmental temperature under both constant and fluctuating thermal regimes (developmental acclimation), as well as short‐term heat hardening, on upper thermal limits (CTmax) in a tropical and temperate population of Drosophila melanogaster. We found evidence for thermal plasticity in response to both developmental acclimation and hardening treatments; CTmax increased at warmer developmental temperatures and with a prior heat hardening treatment. However, hardening and acclimation responses were small, improving CTmax by a maximum of 1·01 °C. These results imply that overheating risk will only be minimally reduced by plasticity. We observed significant associations between developmental temperature and both basal CTmax and hardening capacity (a measure of the extent of the plastic response). Basal CTmax increased, while hardening capacity decreased, with increasing developmental acclimation temperature. This indicates that increases in basal heat resistance at warmer temperatures may come at the cost of a reduced capacity to harden. While plasticity in CTmax is evident in both populations of D. melanogaster we studied, plastic increases in upper thermal limits, particularly at warmer temperatures, may not be sufficient to keep pace with temperature increases predicted under climate change. A lay summary is available for this article.

Assessing the current and future urban heat island of Brussels

This study examines the urban heat island (UHI) of Brussels, for both current (2000–2009) and projected future (2060–2069) climate conditions, by employing very high resolution (250m) modelling experiments, using the urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim. Meteorological parameters that are related to the intensity of the UHI are identified and it is investigated how these parameters and the magnitude of the UHI evolve for two plausible trajectories for future climate conditions. UHI intensity is found to be strongly correlated to the inversion strength in the lowest 100m of the atmosphere. The results for the future scenarios indicate that the magnitude of the UHI is expected to decrease slightly due to global warming. This can be attributed to the increased incoming longwave radiation, caused by higher air temperature and humidity values. The presence of the UHI also has a significant impact on the frequency of extreme temperature events in the city area, both in present and future climates, and exacerbates the impact of climate change on the urban population as the amount of heat wave days in the city increases twice as fast as in the rural surroundings.

A Case-Only Study of Vulnerability to Heat Wave-Related Mortality in New York City (2000-2011).

BackgroundAs a result of climate change, the frequency of extreme temperature events is expected to increase, and such events are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Vulnerability patterns, and corresponding adaptation strategies, are most usefully conceptualized at a local level.MethodsWe used a case-only analysis to examine subject and neighborhood characteristics that modified the association between heat waves and mortality. All deaths of New York City residents from 2000 through 2011 were included in this analysis. Meteorological data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Modifying characteristics were obtained from the death record and geographic data sets.ResultsA total of 234,042 adult deaths occurred during the warm season of our study period. Compared with other warm-season days, deaths during heat waves were more likely to occur in black (non-Hispanic) individuals than other race/ethnicities [odds ratio (OR) = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.12], more likely to occur at home than in institutions and hospital settings (OR = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.16), and more likely among those living in census tracts that received greater public assistance (OR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.09). Finally, deaths during heat waves were more likely among residents in areas of the city with higher relative daytime summer surface temperature and less likely among residents living in areas with more green space.ConclusionMortality during heat waves varies widely within a city. Understanding which individuals and neighborhoods are most vulnerable can help guide local preparedness efforts.CitationMadrigano J, Ito K, Johnson S, Kinney PL, Matte T. 2015. A case-only study of vulnerability to heat wave–related mortality in New York City (2000–2011). Environ Health Perspect 123:672–678; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408178

Avoiding damage and achieving cold tolerance in rice plants

AbstractRice is a staple food for half of the human population. Unlike other cereals such as wheat and barley, rice plants are susceptible to cold stress, which often results in decreased productivity, especially in regions where theindicasubspecies is cultivated. Low temperatures can have negative impacts on rice plants during germination, vegetative growth, and reproductive stages. Considering the expected higher frequency of extreme temperature events in the near future, cold waves could even increase the negative impacts of low temperatures in rice production. Here, we review the efforts that have been made to achieve cold tolerance in rice through breeding, the major tools used for evaluating cold tolerance in rice plants, the discovery of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) and genes related to this tolerance, and the results obtained so far by genetic transformation of rice plants with potential cold‐tolerance genes. Although much progress has been achieved, joint efforts from breeders and plant biologists could speed up the production of cold‐tolerant rice plants, and some possible approaches are suggested.

Differential proteomic response of rice (Oryza sativa) leaves exposed to high‐ and low‐temperature stress

Global mean surface temperature has been predicted to increase by 1.8-4°C within this century, accompanied by an increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme temperature events. Developing rice cultivars better adapted to non-optimal temperatures is essential to increase rice yield in the future and, hence, understanding the molecular response of rice to temperature stress is necessary. In this study, we investigated the proteomic responses of leaves of 24-day-old rice seedlings to sudden temperature changes. Rice seedlings grown at 28/20°C (day/night) were subjected to 3-day exposure to 12/5°C or 20/12°C (day/night) for low-temperature stress, and 36/28°C or 44/36°C (day/night) for high-temperature stress, followed by quantitative label-free shotgun proteomic analysis on biological triplicates of each treatment. Out of over 1100 proteins identified in one or more temperature treatments, more than 400 were found to be responsive to temperature stress. Of these, 43, 126 and 47 proteins were exclusively found at 12/5, 20/12 and 44/36°C (day/night), respectively. Our results showed that a greater change occurs in the rice leaf proteome at 20/12°C (day/night) in comparison to other non-optimal temperature regimes. In addition, our study identified more than 20 novel stress-response proteins.

Projection of extreme temperatures in Hong Kong in the 21st century

The possible changes in the frequency of extreme temperature events in Hong Kong in the 21st century were investigated by statistically downscaling 26 sets of the daily global climate model projections (a combination of 11 models and 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1) of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The models’ performance in simulating the past climate during 1971–2000 has also been verified and discussed. The verification revealed that the models in general have an acceptable skill in reproducing past statistics of extreme temperature events. Moreover, the models are more skillful in simulating the past climate of the hot nights and cold days than that of the very hot days. The projection results suggested that, in the 21st century, the frequency of occurrence of extremely high temperature events in Hong Kong would increase significantly while that of the extremely low temperature events is expected to drop significantly. Based on the multi-model scenario ensemble mean, the average annual numbers of very hot days and hot nights in Hong Kong are expected to increase significantly from 9 days and 16 nights in 1980–1999 to 89 days and 137 nights respectively in 2090–2099. On the other hand, the average annual number of cold days will drop from 17 days in 1980–1999 to about 1 day in 2090–2099. About 65 percent of the model-scenario combinations indicate that there will be on average less than one cold day in 2090–2099. While all the model-emission scenarios in general have projected consistent trends in the change of temperature extremes in the 21st century, there is a large divergence in the projections between different model/emission scenarios. This reflects that there are still large uncertainties in the model simulation of the future climate of extreme temperature events.

Climate change scenarios for surface temperature in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) obtained using statistical downscaling models

Summary Possible changes of mean climate and the frequency of extreme temperature events in Emilia-Romagna, over the period 2070–2100 compared to 1960–1990, are assessed. A statistical downscaling technique, applied to HadAM3P experiments (control, A2 and B2 scenarios) performed at the Hadley Centre, is used to achieve this objective. The method applied consists of a multivariate regression based on Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), using as possible predictors mean sea level pressure (MSLP), geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) and temperature at 850 hPa (T850), and as predictands the seasonal mean values of minimum and maximum surface temperature (Tmin and Tmax), 90 th percentile of maximum temperature (Tmax90), 10 th percentile of minimum temperature (Tmin10), number of frost days (Tnfd) and heat wave duration (HWD) at the station level. First, the statistical model is optimised and calibrated using NCEP=NCAR reanalysis to evaluate the large-scale predictors. The observational data at 32 stations uniformly distributed over Emilia-Romagna are used to compute the local predictands. The results of the optimisation procedure reveal that T850 is the best predictor in most cases, and in combination with MSLP, is an optimum predictor for winter Tmax90 and autumn Tmin10. Finally, MSLP is the best predictor for spring Tmin while Z500 is the best predictor for spring Tmax90 and heat wave duration index, except during autumn. The ability of HadAM3P to simulate the present day spatial and temporal variability of the chosen predictors is tested using the control experiments. Finally, the downscaling model is applied to all model output experiments to obtain simulated present day and A2 and B2 scenario results at the local scale. Results show that significant increases can be expected to occur under scenario conditions in both maximum and minimum temperature, associated with a decrease in the number of frost days and with an increase in the heat wave duration index. The magnitude of the change is more significant for the A2 scenario than for the B2 scenario.