Abstract
This study examines the urban heat island (UHI) of Brussels, for both current (2000–2009) and projected future (2060–2069) climate conditions, by employing very high resolution (250m) modelling experiments, using the urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim. Meteorological parameters that are related to the intensity of the UHI are identified and it is investigated how these parameters and the magnitude of the UHI evolve for two plausible trajectories for future climate conditions. UHI intensity is found to be strongly correlated to the inversion strength in the lowest 100m of the atmosphere. The results for the future scenarios indicate that the magnitude of the UHI is expected to decrease slightly due to global warming. This can be attributed to the increased incoming longwave radiation, caused by higher air temperature and humidity values. The presence of the UHI also has a significant impact on the frequency of extreme temperature events in the city area, both in present and future climates, and exacerbates the impact of climate change on the urban population as the amount of heat wave days in the city increases twice as fast as in the rural surroundings.
Highlights
The continuous growth of urban population has led to an increasing amount of interdisciplinary research focussing on urban climate and the effects of urbanization at different scales (Arnfield 2003)
The urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim (De Ridder et al, 2015) is used, which takes into account advection and feedback processes regarding air temperatures and humidity between the urban surface and the atmosphere, that cannot be included in studies with offline surface schemes
The goal of this study is to assess the current urban heat island (UHI) of Brussels, define the meteorological parameters that play a role in its formation, and to investigate how these parameters and the magnitude of the UHI evolve for two plausible trajectories for future climate conditions: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5
Summary
The continuous growth of urban population has led to an increasing amount of interdisciplinary research focussing on urban climate and the effects of urbanization at different scales (Arnfield 2003). Cities experience higher air temperatures than rural areas, with night-time temperature differences up to 10 °C under favourable conditions (Landsberg, 1981; Oke, 1997). Bornstein (1968) and Gedzelman et al (2003) studied the UHI of New York City and found that it was most pronounced on calm, dry, clear nights during which a strong nocturnal inversion could form over the countryside. They found a strong correlation between the UHI and the cloud cover, wind speed, wind direction and surface temperature
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