Development Of Fossil Fuels Research Articles

Regionally extended shared socioeconomic pathways for the offshore wind industry in Finland

Offshore wind energy is increasingly becoming an important part of European and global low-emission power systems. The aims of this paper are to create a shared understanding on the major drivers of offshore wind development in Finland and to explore how these drivers, and opportunities for the entire industry, may develop over the twenty-first century, under different global futures. This research develops extended shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) narratives for the offshore wind industry by using a virtual participatory workshop with expert stakeholders. According to our results, the five key drivers shaping the prospects of offshore wind development are public acceptability of offshore energy, global and national demand for low-emission energy, technological development and relative competitiveness of offshore energy, availability of space and wind resources, and energy markets and transmission infrastructure. Nationally extended SSP narratives, building on these key drivers, describe a wide range of alternative future risks and opportunities for developing offshore energy. Under sustainable development (SSP1), offshore wind is likely to soon become a major source of energy in the area, if developed in a balanced manner alongside other uses of the marine space. Under fossil-fuelled development (SSP5), offshore wind grows slower and may experience rapid uptake only in the latter half of the century. Under the regional rivalry scenario (SSP3), the need for local energy sources drives the national energy policies and may create new opportunities for offshore wind. Under the inequality scenario (SSP4), local municipalities and the residents decide on locations of new wind turbines and the overall magnitude of future offshore wind.

Present and future distribution of bat hosts of sarbecoviruses: implications for conservation and public health.

Global changes in response to human encroachment into natural habitats and carbon emissions are driving the biodiversity extinction crisis and increasing disease emergence risk. Host distributions are one critical component to identify areas at risk of viral spillover, and bats act as reservoirs of diverse viruses. We developed a reproducible ecological niche modelling pipeline for bat hosts of SARS-like viruses (subgenus Sarbecovirus), given that several closely related viruses have been discovered and sarbecovirus–host interactions have gained attention since SARS-CoV-2 emergence. We assessed sampling biases and modelled current distributions of bats based on climate and landscape relationships and project future scenarios for host hotspots. The most important predictors of species distributions were temperature seasonality and cave availability. We identified concentrated host hotspots in Myanmar and projected range contractions for most species by 2100. Our projections indicate hotspots will shift east in Southeast Asia in locations greater than 2°C hotter in a fossil-fuelled development future. Hotspot shifts have implications for conservation and public health, as loss of population connectivity can lead to local extinctions, and remaining hotspots may concentrate near human populations.

Sanitary Ware Waste as a Source for a Valuable Biodiesel Catalyst

Biofuel is a type of fuel that is made from biomass using modern techniques rather than the relatively slow geological processes that lead to the development of fossil fuels. In Europe, biodiesel is the most widely used biofuel. The sanitary ware industry generates a lot of hazardous waste, such as waste gypsum molds. These molds are broken, pulverized, and reacted with NaCO3 to make CaCO3, which is then heated to produce CaO. The resulting CaO catalyzes the reaction between waste frying oil and methanol for biodiesel synthesis. To evaluate the effect of reaction parameters on the production of biodiesel, the independent reaction parameters that were chosen are as follows: reaction temperature in the range 50–70°C, methanol to oil (M:O) molar ratio in the range 9–15, catalyst loading in the range 1–5%, and time in the range 2–6 hrs. The influence of the independent factors on the reaction-dependent responses was evaluated and it was found that reaction temperature and methanol-to-oil ratio have a major effect on the biodiesel yield. Reaction condition optimization has been studied to maximize biodiesel yield at minimum reaction conditions. The optimum process conditions are 93.4% biodiesel yield at an M:O molar ratio of 15 : 1, catalyst loading of 1%, reaction temperature of 53.6°C, and reaction time of 2 h. The results showed that resulted biodiesel catalyst (CaO) can be used one time; then, a fresh catalyst will be used.

High-Resolution Projections of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Reveal Critical Warming in Humpback Whale Breeding Grounds

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are triggering changes in global climate and warming the ocean. This will affect many marine organisms, particularly those with high site fidelity and habitat temperature preferences, such as humpback whales on their breeding grounds. To study the impacts of a warming ocean on marine organisms, large-scale projections of climatic variables are crucial. Global models are of 0.25 - 1° (~25-100 km) resolution, and not ideal to predict localized changes. Here, we provide 0.05° resolution (~5 km) sea surface temperature (SST) projections, statistically downscaled using the delta method. We illustrate the shifting isotherms of the critical 21 and 28°C boundaries, which border the climatic envelope that humpback whales prefer for their breeding grounds, over the course of the 21st century on a decadal temporal resolution. Results show by the end of the 21st century, 35% of humpback whale breeding areas will experience SSTs above or within 1°C of current thresholds if present-day social, economic, and technological trends continue (‘middle of the road’ CMIP6 greenhouse gas trajectory SSP2-RCP4.5). This number rises to 67% under the scenario describing rapid economic growth in carbon-intensive industries (‘fossil-fueled development’ CMIP6 greenhouse gas trajectory SSP5-RCP8.5). These projections highlight the importance of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and minimizing further SST increases to preserve ecological integrity of humpback whale breeding areas. In this context, our results emphasize the need to focus on protection of critical ocean habitat and to provide high-resolution climate data for this purpose.

Evaluation of long-term steel demand in developing countries- Case study: Iran

The present study evaluates the application of top-down steel demand estimation in developing countries. The anticipated steel demand for the case of Iran is calculated by three methods, including the growth model (GM), the intensity of use hypothesis (IUH), and the fixed stock paradigm (FCP). GM shows a broad range of apparent steel demand based on the assumed growth factor. When the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita reaches 13,000 dollars per person (constant 2010 US$), the IUH method estimates the consumption peak consumption at around 500 kg steel per capita per year, which is being expected between 2040 and 2060 depending on the economic growth assumptions. Since fluctuations in the developing countries minimally affect the FCP, the steel demand based on this model is used to study the potential to satisfying the demand for steel in transportation sector from the scrap generated in the same sector. Iran faces a deficit of almost 8 million tons of steel scrap per year by 2025. Thus, the current examines the potentiality of supplying the required steel demand from the transport sector in two economic scenarios, including “regional rivalry” with restricted economic development and “fossil-fueled development’’ which focuses on the highest economic development using the temporal distribution matrix (TDM) method. Both scenarios demonstrate that the steel consumption peak appears from 2030 to 2040. The maximum steel demand in the transportation sector is 25% lower in the regional rivalry scenario than the fossil-fueled development. Moreover, while this scenario provides a steady trend in steel production and consumption by 2050, the scrap of the transport sector may fulfill the demand for steel in this sector; comparatively, this trend happens with 20 years delay in the fossil-fueled development scenario.

Will population exposure to heat extremes intensify over Southeast Asia in a warmer world?

Temperature extremes have increased during the past several decades and are expected to intensify under current rapid global warming over Southeast Asia (SEA). Exposure to rising temperatures in highly vulnerable regions affects populations, ecosystems, and other elements that may suffer potential losses. Here, we evaluate changes in temperature extremes and future population exposure over SEA at global warming levels (GWLs) of 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Results indicate that temperature extreme indices are projected to increase over SEA at both GWLs, with more significant magnitudes at 3.0 °C. However, daily temperature ranges show a decrease. The substantial increase in total SEA population exposure to heat extremes from 730 million person–days at 2.0 °C GWL to 1200 million person–days at 3.0 °C GWL is mostly contributed by the climate change component, accounting for 48%. In addition, if global warming is restricted well below 2.0 °C, the avoided impacts in population exposure are prominent for most regions over SEA with the largest mitigation in the Philippines. Aggregate population exposure to impacts is decreased by approximately 39% at 2.0 °C GWL, while the interaction component effect, which is associated with increased population and climate change, would decrease by 53%. This indicates serious consequences for growing populations concurrent with global warming impacts if the current fossil-fueled development pathway is adhered to. The present study estimates the risks of increased temperature extremes and population exposure in a warmer future, and further emphasizes the necessity and urgency of implementing climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in SEA.

‘Market Substitution’ in the Context of Climate Litigation

Abstract In several countries where climate litigation has challenged the authorization of fossil-fuel extraction developments, resource companies have presented courts with a ‘market substitution’ argument (msa) in support of authorization. In these contexts msa is premised on the notion that if the fossil-fuel development in question is not approved, another one (or, broadly, increased production) elsewhere leading to similar amounts of greenhouse gas emissions will be approved to meet market demand. Some courts have accepted msa. Others have rejected it. In several cases, and in the academic literature, the argument has been rejected on one or more of four grounds: logic or law; evidence; economics; and jurisprudence. These rejections are all questionable. I argue that msa is not illogical or flawed in law, and therefore that it cannot be dismissed on a priori logical or legal grounds. I further argue that it is capable of being made out on evidence and does not suffer from economic or jurisprudential flaws. Courts and academic commentators should not be too quick to dismiss it.

Marginal Abatement Cost of Carbon Emissions under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Future emissions scenarios have served as a primary basis for assessing climate change and formulating climate policies. To explore the impact of uncertainty in future emissions scenarios on major outcomes related to climate change, this study examines the marginal abatement cost (MAC) of carbon emissions under the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) subject to the economic optimum and the 1.5 °C temperature increase constraint using the Epstein-Zin (EZ) climate model. Taking the “Regional Rivalry” (SSP3) scenario narrative under the economic optimum as a representative case, the expected MACs per ton CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions in the years 2015, 2030, 2060, 2100, and 2200 are: $102.08, $84.42, $61.19, $10.71, and $0.12, respectively. In parallel, the associated expected average mitigation rates (AMRs) are 0%, 63%, 66%, 81%, and 96%, respectively. In summary, in a world developing towards regional rivalry (SSP3) or fossil-fueled development (SSP5) with high mitigation pressure, the MAC values have approximately doubled, compared with the sustainability (SSP1) and inequality (SSP4) storylines with low mitigation pressure levels. The SSP2 (Middle of the Road) shows a moderate MAC decreasing trend with moderate mitigation pressure. The results provide a carbon price benchmark for policy makers with different attitudes towards the unknown future and can be used to formulate carbon mitigation strategy to respond to specific climate goals.

Global urban growth between 1870 and 2100 from integrated high resolution mapped data and urban dynamic modeling

Long term, global records of urban extent can help evaluate environmental impacts of anthropogenic activities. Remotely sensed observations can provide insights into historical urban dynamics, but only during the satellite era. Here, we develop a 1 km resolution global dataset of annual urban dynamics between 1870 and 2100 using an urban cellular automata model trained on satellite observations of urban extent between 1992 and 2013. Hindcast (1870–1990) and projected (2020–2100) urban dynamics under the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were modeled. We find that global urban growth under SSP5, the fossil-fuelled development scenario, was largest with a greater than 40-fold increase in urban extent since 1870. The high resolution dataset captures grid level urban sprawl over 200 years, which can provide insights into the urbanization life cycle of cities and help assess long-term environmental impacts of urbanization and human–environment interactions at a global scale.

Land-use change and rodent-borne diseases: hazards on the shared socioeconomic pathways.

Land-use change has a direct impact on species survival and reproduction, altering their spatio-temporal distributions. It acts as a selective force that favours the abundance and diversity of reservoir hosts and affects host–pathogen dynamics and prevalence. This has led to land-use change being a significant driver of infectious diseases emergence. Here, we predict the presence of rodent taxa and map the zoonotic hazard (potential sources of harm) from rodent-borne diseases in the short and long term (2025 and 2050). The study considers three different land-use scenarios based on the shared socioeconomic pathways narratives (SSPs): sustainable (SSP1-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6), fossil-fuelled development (SSP5-RCP 8.5) and deepening inequality (SSP4-RCP 6.0). We found that cropland expansion into forest and pasture may increase zoonotic hazards in areas with high rodent-species diversity. Nevertheless, a future sustainable scenario may not always reduce hazards. All scenarios presented high heterogeneity in zoonotic hazard, with high-income countries having the lowest hazard range. The SSPs narratives suggest that opening borders and reducing cropland expansion are critical to mitigate current and future zoonotic hazards globally, particularly in middle- and low-income economies. Our study advances previous efforts to anticipate the emergence of zoonotic diseases by integrating past, present and future information to guide surveillance and mitigation of zoonotic hazards at the regional and local scale.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe’.

Rise and fall of vegetation annual primary production resilience to climate variability projected by a large ensemble of Earth System Models’ simulations

Climate change is affecting natural ecosystems and society. Anticipating its impacts on vegetation resilience is critical to estimate the ecosystems’ response to global changes and the reliability of the related ecosystem services, to support mitigation actions, and to define proper adaptation plans. Here, we compute the Annual Production Resilience Indicator from gross primary production (GPP) data simulated by a large ensemble of state-of-the-art Earth System Models involved in the last Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In the Sustainability (Taking the Green Road) and Middle of the Road scenarios (ssp126 and ssp245), the areas where vegetation shows increasing GPP resilience are wider than the areas with decreasing resilience. The situation drastically reverses in the Fossil-fuel Development (Taking the Highway) scenario (ssp585). Among the larger countries, Brazil is exposed to the highest risk of experiencing years with anomalously low GPP, especially in the Taking the Highway scenario.

Solely economic mitigation strategy suggests upward revision of nationally determined contributions

Solely economic mitigation strategy suggests upward revision of nationally determined contributions

Surface Modification of Electrocatalyst for Optimal Adsorption of Reactants in Oxygen Evolution Reaction

Technological development after the industrial revolution has improved the quality of human life, but global energy consumption continues to increase due to population growth and the development of fossil fuels. Therefore, numerous studies have been conducted to develop sustainable long-term and renewable alternative energy sources. The anodic electrode, which is one of the two-electrode system components, is an essential element for effective energy production. In general, precious metal-based electrocatalysts show high OER reactions from the anodic electrode, but it is difficult to scale up due to their low abundance and high cost. To overcome these problems, transition metal-based anodic electrodes, which exhibit advantages with respect to their low cost and high catalytic activities, are in the spotlight nowadays. Among them, stainless steel is a material with a high ratio of transition metal components, i.e., Fe, Ni, and Cr, and has excellent corrosion resistance and low cost. However, stainless steel shows low electrochemical performance due to its slow sluggish kinetics and lack of active sites. In this study, we fabricated surface modified electrodes by two methods: (i) anodization and (ii) hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) immersion treatments. As a result of comparing the two methods, the change of the electrode surface and the electrochemical properties were not confirmed in the H2O2 immersion method. On the other hand, the porous electrode (PE) fabricated through electrochemical anodization shows a low charge transfer resistance (Rct) and high OER activity due to its large surface area compared to the conventional electrode (CE). These results confirm that the synthesis process of H2O2 immersion is an unsuitable method for surface modification. In contrast, the PE fabricated by anodization can increase the OER activity by providing high adsorption of reactants through surface modification.

Eminent Domain Law as Climate Policy

In 2019, several state legislatures adopted aggressive clean energy laws and other states are poised to do the same. These policies require electric utilities to secure all of the electricity they sell to customers from carbon-free energy resources by a specified date and many also require the state to drastically reduce carbon emissions from the transportation sector, increase energy efficiency in buildings, and otherwise decarbonize their economies. In order to meet these mandates, states must transform the physical infrastructure used to create and transport energy. This will require building new power plants that run on carbon-free energy resources like wind, solar, hydropower, or nuclear energy; constructing the electric transmission lines and other infrastructure needed to deliver these energy resources to consumers; setting standards and mandates for new buildings, vehicles, and transportation infrastructure that will reduce carbon emissions; and providing direct funding, tax incentives, new permitting processes, and staff to support the public and private actors that will implement these changes. These needs are becoming well documented. What remains completely unexplored, however, is the potential for state property law reform — most notably eminent domain law — to limit the development of fossil fuels and promote the growth of alternative energy to support these new clean energy policies. This Article contends that states should consider eliminating existing eminent domain rights for fossil fuel projects and extending eminent domain rights for clean energy projects as part of their state climate policies. Moreover, each state’s approach to eminent domain reform may differ based on the current energy mix in the state as well as the potential for technological development. These policy conversations regarding the use of eminent domain for energy projects are critical to developing robust state clean energy laws. They also can provide a useful template for Congress if, in the future, it decides to enact federal climate policy.

Predicting land cover changes using a CA Markov model under different shared socioeconomic pathways in Greece

ABSTRACT Land change modeling (LCM) is a complex GIS procedure aiming at predicting land cover changes in the future, contributing thus to the design of interventions that help maintain ecosystem services and mitigate climate change impacts. In the present work, the land change model for Greece, a typical Mediterranean country, has been developed, based on historical information from remotely sensed land cover data. Land cover types based on the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) classification were obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover product, i.e. MCD12Q1, provided annually from 2001 to 2018 at a spatial resolution of 500 m. Initially, the dominant land cover changes and their driving variables for the decade of 2001 to 2011 were determined and the transition potential of land was mapped using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network. Four dominant land-cover transformations were found in Greece from 2001 to 2011, i.e. land transformation from Savannas to Woody Savannas, from Savannas to Grasslands, from Grasslands to Savannas, and from Croplands to Grasslands. Driving variables were found to be the Evidence Likelihood of Land Cover, i.e. the relative frequency with which different land cover categories occurred within the areas that transitioned, the Altitude as realized in the Digital Elevation Model of Greece from ASTER GDEM, the Distance from previously changed land and two climate variables i.e. Mean Annual Precipitation and Mean Annual Minimum Temperature. After the model was calibrated, its predictive ability was tested for land cover prediction for 2018 and was found to be 96.7%. Future land cover projections up to 2030 were developed incorporating CMIP6 climate data under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), i.e SSP126 corresponding to a sustainable future and SSP585, which describes the future world based on fossil-fueled development. The results indicate that major historical land transformations in Greece, do not correspond to land degradation or desertification, as it has been reported in previous works. On the contrary, the land cover transitions indicate that the Woody Savannas gain areas constantly, whereas Grasslands and Croplands lose areas, and forested areas of all types demonstrate moderate gains. Concerning future land cover, the present work indicates that the direction of historical changes will also prevail in the next decade, with the most severe scenario, i.e. SSP585 slowing down the rate of changes and the most sustainable one, i.e. SSP126, accelerating the rate of expansion of woody vegetation land cover type.

Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature and precipitation in Paraguay

This study evaluates the ability of 19 models of CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate Paraguay’s climate features. Historical multi-member simulations of single models and their multi-model ensembles are bias-corrected and evaluated with statistical metrics. Future projections of precipitation and temperature are generated with the ensembles for three integrated scenarios of socio-economic development and greenhouse gas emissions (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5). The 19 models simulate well the observed mean temperature. The bias-corrected multi-model ensemble reaches the highest skill scores and accurately reproduces the mean spatial field and annual cycle. The bias-corrected multi-model ensemble of precipitation represents the annual cycle weakly, missing the sharp onset and decay of the South American Monsoon. Some individual models and the multi-model ensemble correctly reproduce the west-east gradient, although they underestimate its pronounced spatial variability. Ensembles of future simulations project that by 2100, the annual mean temperature will increase for the three scenarios. On average, the increases are almost 1.7 °C in the sustainable development and low emissions scenario (SSP1–2.6), 3 °C in the middle-of-the-road development and medium emissions scenario (SSP2–4.5), and 5.5 °C in the fossil-fueled development and high emissions scenario (SSP5–8.5). Models project a slight decrease in annual precipitation towards the northwest (less than 50 mm) and an increase towards the southeast (more than 200 mm). Paraguay’s humid eastern part is projected to have a small growth in temperature and an increase in precipitation. In contrast, the western arid Chaco region would experience a substantial increase in temperature, while rainfall would slightly decrease.

David vs. Goliath? Leveraging citizen science in Israel’s energy debates

As technological innovation accelerates the controversial development of unconventional fossil fuels, citizen science (CS) has emerged as a potential form of citizen engagement in technoscientific energy policy. Citizen science’s efficacy in engendering actual policy change, however, is often limited. This paper explores the role of CS in the context of Israel’s divisive national oil shale debate. Based chiefly on 41 semi-structured, recorded and transcribed interviews with key players, and 59 policy documents, this research examines both form and strategy whereby CS served as a means of citizen engagement in policymaking. This research indicates several effective forms of citizen-led and policy-driven CS including intense self-education, science production and analysis, challenging scientific authority, and reframing the debate. Moreover, the research demonstrates the strategic operationalization of citizen science. CS was co-produced and disseminated bilaterally via a partnership between citizens and decision-makers – the environmental ministry, and CS was incorporated as one of several components in a complex and multilateral strategy. This research hence offers insight into potential forms and strategies whereby CS can serve effectively as a form of public participation in energy decision-making, yet questions to what extent these forms of CS enhance science democratization.

Constraining fossil fuels based on 2 °C carbon budgets: the rapid adoption of a transformative concept in politics and finance

This article traces how the notion of finite limits to emissions based on 2 °C carbon budgets was applied to increase the credibility of a carbon-constrained future in two very separate realms, social movements contesting fossil-fuel development and the financial sector—a process yet to be described in the relevant political and financial literatures. For each realm and sub-areas within them, we apply a three-wave taxonomy to trace the application of 2 °C carbon budget based concepts—including stranded assets, the carbon bubble, divestment, and anti-pipeline campaigns—from the fringe to the mainstream in under 10 years. We do so by drawing on relevant primary documents and peer-reviewed literature, complemented by a quantitative textual analysis of relevant discourse from news sources. The article establishes how, in efforts to shift expectations, climate proponents used 2 °C carbon budgets to frame a stark choice between a safe climate with strict carbon constraints and growth-oriented fossil-fuel interests. The article also demonstrates that these concepts, and efforts inspired by them, contributed to constraints on fossil-fuel developments and interests, arguably further enhancing the credibility of a carbon-constrained future. We conclude with a discussion of the potentially self-reinforcing nature of such expectation dynamics and by highlighting overlapping implications for actors across finance, where investors reorient risk assessment around climate, and social movements, where activists disrupt states’ entrenched commitment to fossil-fuel expansion.

Achieving the Paris Agreement’s 2 degree target in Nepal: the potential role of a carbon tax

ABSTRACT The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature rise in this century to well below 2°C above the pre-industrial level, and pursue efforts to limit further the temperature rise below 1.5°C. All parties ratifying the Paris Agreement have submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), many stating emission reduction targets. The international climate research community has designed five different Shared Socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to characterize various possibilities in demographic and economic changes over the next century. These SSPs were implemented by six integrated assessment model (IAM) teams, which also determined the carbon price trajectory required to limit the temperature rise below 2°C in respective SSPs. In SSP5, also termed the fossil-fueled development scenario, only three IAMs identified that the 2°C target would be feasible, with carbon prices ranging from 220 to 518 US$/tCO2e in 2050. This study aims to analyse the effects of these carbon prices on energy and emissions during 2015–2050 in Nepal. It does so using a long-term energy system model using the framework of the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Enduse (AIM/Enduse) modelling tool. The base case scenario and three carbon price scenarios are developed. Primary energy supply, energy security, energy technology-mix (especially renewable energy usage and hydropower development), emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and local pollutants, and local/regional environmental co-benefits are compared between the base case scenario and carbon price scenarios. The study finds that the implementation of a carbon tax would promote domestic hydropower, improve energy-efficiency and reduce imports of fossil fuels when compared to the base case. Hydropower-based electricity would have a major role in reducing emissions. Key policy insights The carbon prices in SSP5 determined by IAMs to achieve the 2°C target would be sufficient to achieve Nepal’s targets under its NDC in the energy sector. The industry and transport sectors would offer the highest GHG emission reduction. Hydropower and biomass would have major roles in decarbonizing the energy system.

Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4.

Scenario‐based biodiversity modelling is a powerful approach to evaluate how possible future socio‐economic developments may affect biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the changes in terrestrial biodiversity intactness, expressed by the mean species abundance (MSA) metric, resulting from three of the shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs) combined with different levels of climate change (according to representative concentration pathways [RCPs]): a future oriented towards sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), a future determined by a politically divided world (SSP3xRCP6.0) and a future with continued global dependency on fossil fuels (SSP5xRCP8.5). To this end, we first updated the GLOBIO model, which now runs at a spatial resolution of 10 arc‐seconds (~300 m), contains new modules for downscaling land use and for quantifying impacts of hunting in the tropics, and updated modules to quantify impacts of climate change, land use, habitat fragmentation and nitrogen pollution. We then used the updated model to project terrestrial biodiversity intactness from 2015 to 2050 as a function of land use and climate changes corresponding with the selected scenarios. We estimated a global area‐weighted mean MSA of 0.56 for 2015. Biodiversity intactness declined in all three scenarios, yet the decline was smaller in the sustainability scenario (−0.02) than the regional rivalry and fossil‐fuelled development scenarios (−0.06 and −0.05 respectively). We further found considerable variation in projected biodiversity change among different world regions, with large future losses particularly for sub‐Saharan Africa. In some scenario‐region combinations, we projected future biodiversity recovery due to reduced demands for agricultural land, yet this recovery was counteracted by increased impacts of other pressures (notably climate change and road disturbance). Effective measures to halt or reverse the decline of terrestrial biodiversity should not only reduce land demand (e.g. by increasing agricultural productivity and dietary changes) but also focus on reducing or mitigating the impacts of other pressures.