Achieving the Paris Agreement’s 2 degree target in Nepal: the potential role of a carbon tax

Solely economic mitigation strategy suggests upward revision of nationally determined contributions

Abstract. The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 ∘C above pre-industrial times using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries' agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sectors for reasons including the potential trade-offs between GHG mitigation and food security, a non-zero emission target for methane as a short-lived GHG, and the requirement for AFOLU to act as a net sink to offset residual emissions from other sectors. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at a national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale using the example of Ireland, where approximately 40 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Backcasting approach of Livestock INtensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields, and forest growth rates). Using AFOLU emission factors from national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN calculates annual GHG emissions out to the selected target year for each scenario (2050 in this case). The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120 so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of the 21st century. Filtering randomised scenarios according to compliance with specific biophysical definitions (GHG time series) of climate neutrality will provide scientific boundaries for appropriate long-term actions within NDCs. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of GOBLIN, with an emphasis on biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions, and carbon sinks at a national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.

In order to achieve target greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, such as those proposed by each country by nationally determined contributions (NDCs), GHG emission projections are receiving attention around the world. Generally, integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used to estimate future GHG emissions considering both economic structure and final energy consumption. However, these models usually do not consider the entire supply chain, because of differences in the aims of application. In contrast, life cycle assessment (LCA) considers the entire supply chain but does not cover future environmental impacts. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the national carbon footprint projection in Japan based on life cycle thinking and IAMs, using the advantages of each. A future input–output table was developed using the Asia-Pacific integrated model (AIM)/computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (Japan) developed by the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES). In this study, we collected the fundamental data using LCA databases and estimated future GHG emissions based on production-based and consumption-based approaches considering supply chains among industrial sectors. We targeted fiscal year (FY) 2030 because the Japanese government set a goal for GHG emissions in 2030 in its NDC report. Accordingly, we set three scenarios: FY2005 (business as usual (BAU)), FY2030 (BAU), and FY2030 (NDC). As a result, the carbon footprint (CFP) in FY2030 will be approximately 1097 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2eq), which is 28.5% lower than in FY2005. The main driver of this reduction is a shift in energy use, such as the introduction of renewable energy. According to the results, the CFP from the consumption side, fuel combustion in the use stage, transport and postal services, and electricity influence the total CFP, while results of the production side showed the CFP of the energy and material sectors, such as iron and steel and transport, will have an impact on the total CFP. Moreover, carbon productivity will gradually increase and FY2030 (NDC) carbon productivity will be higher than the other two cases.

Cutting through the noise on negative emissions

Carbon markets under the Paris Agreement: how can environmental integrity be ensured?

The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 °C above pre-industrial times, using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress vis-à-vis this goal. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries’ agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) sectors for numerous reasons, inter alia: the need to balance mitigation of difficult-to-abate agricultural emissions against food security; agriculture emissions of methane do not need to be reduced to zero to achieve climate stabilisation; land use should be a large net sink globally to offset residual emissions. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMS) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale, using the example of Ireland where 34 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Back-casting approach of Livestock Intensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations in 2050 within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields and forest growth rates). Based on AFOLU emission factors used for national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN then calculates annual GHG emissions out to 2050 for each scenario. The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120, so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of this century. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of this biophysical model intended to provide robust evidence on the biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions and carbon sinks at national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.

The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 °C above pre-industrial times, using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress vis-à-vis this goal. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries’ agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) sectors for numerous reasons, inter alia: the need to balance mitigation of difficult-to-abate agricultural emissions against food security; agriculture emissions of methane do not need to be reduced to zero to achieve climate stabilisation; land use should be a large net sink globally to offset residual emissions. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMS) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale, using the example of Ireland where 34 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Back-casting approach of Livestock Intensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations in 2050 within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields and forest growth rates). Based on AFOLU emission factors used for national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN then calculates annual GHG emissions out to 2050 for each scenario. The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120, so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of this century. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of this biophysical model intended to provide robust evidence on the biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions and carbon sinks at national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.

The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 °C above pre-industrial times, using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress vis-à-vis this goal. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries’ agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) sectors for numerous reasons, inter alia: the need to balance mitigation of difficult-to-abate agricultural emissions against food security; agriculture emissions of methane do not need to be reduced to zero to achieve climate stabilisation; land use should be a large net sink globally to offset residual emissions. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMS) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale, using the example of Ireland where 34 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Back-casting approach of Livestock Intensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations in 2050 within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields and forest growth rates). Based on AFOLU emission factors used for national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN then calculates annual GHG emissions out to 2050 for each scenario. The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120, so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of this century. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of this biophysical model intended to provide robust evidence on the biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions and carbon sinks at national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.

The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 °C above pre-industrial times, using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress vis-à-vis this goal. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries’ agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) sectors for numerous reasons, inter alia: the need to balance mitigation of difficult-to-abate agricultural emissions against food security; agriculture emissions of methane do not need to be reduced to zero to achieve climate stabilisation; land use should be a large net sink globally to offset residual emissions. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMS) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale, using the example of Ireland where 34 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Back-casting approach of Livestock Intensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations in 2050 within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields and forest growth rates). Based on AFOLU emission factors used for national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN then calculates annual GHG emissions out to 2050 for each scenario. The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120, so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of this century. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of this biophysical model intended to provide robust evidence on the biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions and carbon sinks at national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.

The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 °C above pre-industrial times, using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress vis-à-vis this goal. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries’ agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) sectors for numerous reasons, inter alia: the need to balance mitigation of difficult-to-abate agricultural emissions against food security; agriculture emissions of methane do not need to be reduced to zero to achieve climate stabilisation; land use should be a large net sink globally to offset residual emissions. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMS) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale, using the example of Ireland where 34 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Back-casting approach of Livestock Intensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations in 2050 within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields and forest growth rates). Based on AFOLU emission factors used for national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN then calculates annual GHG emissions out to 2050 for each scenario. The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120, so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of this century. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of this biophysical model intended to provide robust evidence on the biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions and carbon sinks at national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.

The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 °C above pre-industrial times, using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress vis-à-vis this goal. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries’ agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) sectors for numerous reasons, inter alia: the need to balance mitigation of difficult-to-abate agricultural emissions against food security; agriculture emissions of methane do not need to be reduced to zero to achieve climate stabilisation; land use should be a large net sink globally to offset residual emissions. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMS) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale, using the example of Ireland where 34 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Back-casting approach of Livestock Intensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations in 2050 within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields and forest growth rates). Based on AFOLU emission factors used for national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN then calculates annual GHG emissions out to 2050 for each scenario. The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120, so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of this century. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of this biophysical model intended to provide robust evidence on the biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions and carbon sinks at national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.

The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 °C above pre-industrial times, using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress vis-à-vis this goal. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries’ agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) sectors for numerous reasons, inter alia: the need to balance mitigation of difficult-to-abate agricultural emissions against food security; agriculture emissions of methane do not need to be reduced to zero to achieve climate stabilisation; land use should be a large net sink globally to offset residual emissions. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMS) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale, using the example of Ireland where 34 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Back-casting approach of Livestock Intensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations in 2050 within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields and forest growth rates). Based on AFOLU emission factors used for national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN then calculates annual GHG emissions out to 2050 for each scenario. The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120, so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of this century. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of this biophysical model intended to provide robust evidence on the biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions and carbon sinks at national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.

The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 °C above pre-industrial times, using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress vis-à-vis this goal. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries’ agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) sectors for numerous reasons, inter alia: the need to balance mitigation of difficult-to-abate agricultural emissions against food security; agriculture emissions of methane do not need to be reduced to zero to achieve climate stabilisation; land use should be a large net sink globally to offset residual emissions. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMS) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale, using the example of Ireland where 34 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Back-casting approach of Livestock Intensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations in 2050 within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields and forest growth rates). Based on AFOLU emission factors used for national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN then calculates annual GHG emissions out to 2050 for each scenario. The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120, so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of this century. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of this biophysical model intended to provide robust evidence on the biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions and carbon sinks at national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.

The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 °C above pre-industrial times, using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress vis-à-vis this goal. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries’ agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) sectors for numerous reasons, inter alia: the need to balance mitigation of difficult-to-abate agricultural emissions against food security; agriculture emissions of methane do not need to be reduced to zero to achieve climate stabilisation; land use should be a large net sink globally to offset residual emissions. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMS) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale, using the example of Ireland where 34 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Back-casting approach of Livestock Intensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations in 2050 within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields and forest growth rates). Based on AFOLU emission factors used for national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN then calculates annual GHG emissions out to 2050 for each scenario. The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120, so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of this century. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of this biophysical model intended to provide robust evidence on the biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions and carbon sinks at national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.

Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach