Will population exposure to heat extremes intensify over Southeast Asia in a warmer world?

Abstract

Temperature extremes have increased during the past several decades and are expected to intensify under current rapid global warming over Southeast Asia (SEA). Exposure to rising temperatures in highly vulnerable regions affects populations, ecosystems, and other elements that may suffer potential losses. Here, we evaluate changes in temperature extremes and future population exposure over SEA at global warming levels (GWLs) of 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Results indicate that temperature extreme indices are projected to increase over SEA at both GWLs, with more significant magnitudes at 3.0 °C. However, daily temperature ranges show a decrease. The substantial increase in total SEA population exposure to heat extremes from 730 million person–days at 2.0 °C GWL to 1200 million person–days at 3.0 °C GWL is mostly contributed by the climate change component, accounting for 48%. In addition, if global warming is restricted well below 2.0 °C, the avoided impacts in population exposure are prominent for most regions over SEA with the largest mitigation in the Philippines. Aggregate population exposure to impacts is decreased by approximately 39% at 2.0 °C GWL, while the interaction component effect, which is associated with increased population and climate change, would decrease by 53%. This indicates serious consequences for growing populations concurrent with global warming impacts if the current fossil-fueled development pathway is adhered to. The present study estimates the risks of increased temperature extremes and population exposure in a warmer future, and further emphasizes the necessity and urgency of implementing climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in SEA.