Foresight Studies Research Articles

Russia’s experience of foresight implementation in global value chain research

The objective of this paper is to analyse the scope for improving empirical and methodological foundation of global value chain (GVC) research and for making relevant political decisions, primarily through application of foresight methodology based on the latest trend to combine the approaches of global value chain and national innovation system research. The authors choose Russia as an illustrative case of an economy in the changing geopolitical context to review major trends of global value chains’ development, specific features of Russia’s participation in them, and the necessary steps to increase the quality and efficiency of this participation. Special attention was paid to theoretical, methodological, and empirical tools of GVC research and of making relevant political decisions—which presently are far from being adequate: they need to be supplemented with the new ones to improve the forecasting potential and practical and strategic orientation of the GVC approach. To this end, approaches which would make it possible to research interconnection between global processes and trends with regional and national innovation-based development tendencies become of crucial importance. Application of foresight methodology may significantly contribute to researching the GVC phenomenon, being a major logical step towards creating advanced policy tools to mobilise available resources and coordinate stakeholders’ actions to increase Russia’s global competitiveness. The paper presents a number of case studies which describe practical application of various foresight methodology components to analyse Russian participation in various GVCs, by the examples of specific product and service groups (fresh fruit and vegetables, car parts, mobile phones, air transport, electronic payment systems). The authors conclude that both full-scale foresight studies and specific components thereof could be applied for the purposes of GVC analysis, strategic planning, and making political decisions.

Growth of Demand for Materials with New Properties in Foresight and Strategic Planning

The Russian Long-Term Science&Technology Foresight towards 2030 recognizes the critical importance of new materials in virtually all sectors of production, construction, medicine and services. This paper analyzes the essential terminological and content-related problems of foresight categories representation regarding new materials. Besides, the authors consider the development of further measures for direct and indirect (i.e. tax incentives) state support for economic development. The object of study is the science and technology categories “nanotechnologies”, “nanomaterials”, and “nanoproducts”. The study has been conducted using the method of critical technologies. The authors have revealed that the identification of the most promising areas of science and technology development in the framework of foresight, on the one hand, and tax incentives for research and development expenditures, on the other, are asymmetric. The asymmetry is content-related with regard to products and services and, temporal with regard to the duration period. What’s more, it is proposed to expand the current focus of the foresight studies in Russia and ensure that the scope of these studies comprises not only technology but also science and engineering.

Priorities for future innovation: Russian S&T Foresight 2030

Under the transition to a market economy Russian science, technology and innovation (STI) has changed dramatically. After the crisis of late 1990s, the government declared science and technology (S&T) as one of national priorities and started increasingly investing in this sector but it has not led to the tangible output like a bigger volume of high-tech exports or a higher share of international publications. A number of policy instruments have been introduced to increase the efficiency of STI policies. One of them is S&T Foresight.The activities aimed at identification of national S&T priorities and series of Foresight studies have helped to understand which areas are most promising for sustaining existing competitive advantages and building new ones via gradual shift from the resource-based economy towards the technology-oriented one.The paper presents the design and organisation of a large-scale Russian S&T Foresight exercise as a fully-fledged instrument of the national STI policy and discusses the achieved results and their use for policies at different levels.

Jak daleko vidí Dlouhodobý výhled pro obranu 2030?

The article deals with a strategic document that currently represents understanding of trends, which form the future security and operational environment,and that sets up the vectors for building-up and development of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic. The first aim is to assess the Long Term Perspective for Defence 2030 and its significance in context of other strategic documents adopted in the Czech Republic. Another aim is to confront its contents with a structured analysis of large quantity of the state-of-the-art foresight studies,differentiated in geographical and thematic scope. The comparison allows identifying convergence and divergence between the Czech document and relevant findings from the foreign foresight documents. This approach enables the judgement whether the Long Term Perspective for Defence 2030 provides a relevant guideline for the defence sector development, and whether it does or does not miss some of the issues found significant in the foresight documents in the outer world.

Jak daleko vidí Dlouhodobý výhled pro obranu 2030?

The article deals with a strategic document that currently represents understanding of trends, which form the future security and operational environment,and that sets up the vectors for building-up and development of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic. The first aim is to assess the Long Term Perspective for Defence 2030 and its significance in context of other strategic documents adopted in the Czech Republic. Another aim is to confront its contents with a structured analysis of large quantity of the state-of-the-art foresight studies,differentiated in geographical and thematic scope. The comparison allows identifying convergence and divergence between the Czech document and relevant findings from the foreign foresight documents. This approach enables the judgement whether the Long Term Perspective for Defence 2030 provides a relevant guideline for the defence sector development, and whether it does or does not miss some of the issues found significant in the foresight documents in the outer world.

A MOBILE COMPUTING TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY WITH SCENARIO PLANNING APPROACH

Although the importance of mobile computing is gradually being recognized, mobile computing technology development and adoption have not been clearly realized. This paper focuses on the technology planning strategy for organizations that have an interest in developing or adopting mobile computing technology. By using scenario analysis, a technology planning strategy is constructed. In this study, thirty mobile computing technologies are classified into six groups, and the importance and risk factors of these technologies are then evaluated under two possible scenarios. The main research findings include the discovery that most mobile computing software technologies are rated high to medium in importance and low risk in both scenarios, and that scenario changes will have less impact on mobile computing devices and on mobile computing software technologies. These results provide a reference for organizations interested in developing or adopting mobile computing technology. To cite this document: Wei-Hsiu Weng and Woo-Tsong Lin, A mobile computing technology foresight study with scenario planning approach, International Journal of Electronic Commerce Studies, Vol.6, No.2, pp.223-232, 2015. Permanent link to this document: http://dx.doi.org/10.7903/ijecs.1242 Â

Economic analysis of bedside ultrasonography (US) implementation in an Internal Medicine department.

The economic crisis, the growing healthcare demand, and Defensive Medicine wastefulness, strongly recommend the restructuring of the entire medical network. New health technology, such as bedside ultrasonography, might successfully integrate the clinical approach optimizing the use of limited resources, especially in a person-oriented vision of medicine. Bedside ultrasonography is a safe and reliable technique, with worldwide expanding employment in various clinical settings, being considered as "the stethoscope of the 21st century". However, at present, bedside ultrasonography lacks economic analysis. We performed a Cost-Benefit Analysis "ex ante", with a break-even point computing, of bedside ultrasonography implementation in an Internal Medicine department in the mid-term. Number and kind estimation of bedside ultrasonographic studies were obtained by a retrospective study, whose data results were applied to the next 3-year period (foresight study). All 1980 foreseen bedside examinations, with prevailing multiorgan ultrasonographic studies, were considered to calculate direct and indirect costs, while specific and generic revenues were considered only after the first semester. Physician professional training, equipment purchase and working time represented the main fixed and variable cost items. DRG increase/appropriateness, hospitalization stay shortening and reduction of traditional ultrasonography examination requests mainly impacted on calculated revenues. The break-even point, i.e. the volume of activity at which revenues exactly equal total incurred costs, was calculated to be 734 US examinations, corresponding to € 81,998 and the time considered necessary to reach it resulting 406 days. Our economic analysis clearly shows that bedside ultrasonography implementation in clinical daily management of an Internal Medicine department can produce consistent savings, or economic profit according to managerial choices (i.e., considering public or private targets), other than evident medical benefits.

Tomorrow's healthy society - Research priorities for foods and diets

Health promotion and disease prevention through provision and consumption of healthy diets are increasingly recognised as crucial, both socially and economically, in the face of strained healthcare systems, an ageing population, and the high individual and economic costs of diseases. The Foresight study `Tomorrow's healthy society ? research priorities for foods and diets' was initiated to inform the selection of research challenges to receive funding under the Horizon 2020 programme. The exploratory scenario-building approach focused on the European consumer with the year 2050 as a long-term time horizon. Four different future scenarios were developed using the extremes of two main drivers: agricultural commodity prices (low or high) and societal values (community spirit or individualistic society). The scenarios provided the basis for the identification and prioritisation of research needs to address the challenges and opportunities arising from the different scenarios. The resulting ten research priorities fall into four thematic areas: Towards healthier eating: integrated policy-making; Food, nutrients and health: cross-interactions and emerging risks; Making individualised diets a reality; and Shaping and coping with the 2050 food system. The research priorities developed in this study show that we still need to know more about foods, diets and health, and that we need to have effective, integrated and acceptable policies in order to move towards a sustainable food chain providing consumers with healthy diets. Changes in consumer behaviour must go hand in hand with changes in the food supply. The scenarios developed in this study are intended to contribute to a societal dialogue on how to shape the future food system, while research will provide the evidence necessary for informed

Cognitive Neural Network Foresight to Forecast Scientific and Technological Development of the State

In the paper, we focus on the possibilities of neural network approach to assess the potential of Russia in achieving indicators of the sixth wave of innovation. The purpose of this study is to develop evolutionary algorithms and tools for neurofuzzy output of science-based assessments of the analysis and formation of scientific and technological areas and the List of critical technologies of the Russian Federation. In this paper, in the framework of the Foresight study, we used the results of expert seminars, as well as methods of remote study. Database mining tools are a class of hybrid systems of computational intelligence. The systems operate on the basis of the principles that are significantly different from data processing methods in conventional artificial neural networks relating to cognitive (“smart”) technology. Such hybrid neurofuzzy systems possess the most powerful cognitive capacity (modelling of sensation and perception; pattern recognition, learning and memorizing of patterns in order to identify the knowledge of the data). Such systems have wider range of application than other methods of synthesis of fuzzy sets and neural networks. The effect of identifying patterns in the neural network model provides comprehensive heterogeneous parameters that are not sufficient when applied separately. Trained mental model will calculate the weight factors and identify diagnostic decision rules “If, then”, in which certain indicators carry the weight load of the solution. The developed methods have found practical implementation in the development of the report (essay) in the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation within the framework of works on long-term forecast of the most important areas of scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2030.

Homeschool in Malaysia: A Foresight Study

Homeschooling in Malaysia is a form of alternative education that emphasizes quality education based on moral values and beliefs while strengthening family bonds. This alternative form of education is being practiced by a growing number of families in Malaysia. As such, the Ministry of Education has given the green light for intending parents who wish to homeschool their children to do so with prior permission from the Ministry. Local parents homeschool their children for various reasons. This study was undertaken to foresight the trends of parents who homeschool their children in Malaysia. A mixed approach was used in this study. The data collected was analyzed by using impact uncertainty analysis to foresight homeschool in Malaysia. Data was collected from 30 parents who homeschool in Malaysia and 4 of them were also interviewed. Parent left mainstream schooling is mainly due to inadequate curriculum or syllabus, social issues among students, an adverse school environment and conflicting values in the mainstream’s schools. The key drivers of homeschool in Malaysia are social issues among students and the education syllabus offered. This research work foresighted the drivers of homeschooling and provided possible scenarios of future of homeschool in Malaysia. Discussion and recommendations were provided.

Foresight Study on the Risk Governance of New Technologies: The Case of Nanotechnology.

Technology-led innovation represents an important driver of European economic and industrial competitiveness and offers solutions to societal challenges. In order to facilitate responsible innovation and public acceptance, a need exists to identify and implement oversight approaches focused on the effective risk governance of emerging technologies. This article describes a foresight study on the governance of new technologies, using nanotechnology as a case example. Following a mapping of the governance landscape, four plausible foresight scenarios were developed, capturing critical uncertainties for nanotechnology governance. Key governance elements were then stress tested within these scenarios to see how well they might perform in a range of possible futures and to inform identification of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for nanotechnology governance in Europe. Based on the study outcomes, recommendations are proposed regarding the development of governance associated with the responsible development of new technologies.

The evolution of the use of Foresight methods: a scientometric analysis of global FTA research output

An increasing number of quantitative and qualitative methods have been used for future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) to develop understanding of situations, enable creativity, engage experts, and provide interaction. FTA practitioners have used frequently one or a suitable mixture of these methods for their activities. Changing policy and strategy making contexts as well as enabling technologies increased the need and possibility for performing adaptive Foresight studies in order to improve decision making about the future and using making better use of limited resources. This study performs a scientometric analysis of the publications in the major FTA journals with the aim of understanding the dynamics of using Foresight methods across time. Among the other branches of FTA, including forecasting, futures, and technology assessment, a special emphasis is given on Foresight as a systematic and inclusive way of exploring long term futures, developing visions and formulating policies for action. The study aims at detecting the key Trends and Weak Signals regarding the use of existing methods and emerging ones with potential uses for Foresight activities. Further implications will be achieved with the generation of networks for quantitative and qualitative methods. This will demonstrate the most frequently combined Foresight methods by researchers and practitioners. Where possible the methods will also be cross-fertilised with the key thematic areas to illustrate the relationships between policy domains and industrial sectors covered by the scope of study with methodological choice. This output is considered to be taken as a methodological guide for any researchers, practitioners or policy makers, who might embark upon or involved in a Foresight activity. Further outputs of the study will include the identification of centres of excellence in the use of Foresight methods and collaboration networks between countries, institutions and policy domains. Overall, the paper demonstrates how scientometric tools can be used to understand the dynamics of evolution in a research field. Thus, it provides an overview of the use of methods in Foresight, and how it is distinguished from the other FTA activities; the evolutionary characteristics of methodological design and factors influencing the choice of methods; and finally a discussion on the future potentials for new cutting-edge approaches.

Water Resources 2030: Policy Recommendations

The Foresight study presented in this paper is devoted to the sustainable use of water resources in Russia. The authors analyse possible trajectories of development in the three thematic areas (i) sustainability of water systems; (ii) water use by households and in industry; and (iii) new water products and services. The Foresight methods cover expert interviews and seminars, desk research, and policy analysis. The state and corporate policy recommendations for the water sector offered in this study correspond with the water scenarios earlier identified by Saritas et al.: “Nearly ideal future”, “Losses and accidents”, “Problem conservation”, and “National Priority” [Saritas et al., 2015]. For each of these four scenarios, policy recommendations for water companies were identified covering new solutions (including technological innovations), new values and competencies, organisational changes, modernisation of the infrastructure, financial issues, and legal and regulatory changes. Moreover, we recommend certain policy measures and approaches to state policy in the water sector. The paper concludes with the main directions and instruments for the sector’s development, which should be planned and implemented jointly by the government and businesses, as well as other stakeholders (organisations and people).

Services in the forest-based sector – unexplored futures

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to analyze and provide a synthesis of how services are understood, how they are likely to develop and how future development can be studied more closely in the forest-based sector (FBS). Services are likely to have an increasing role in the FBS in the future.Design/methodology/approach– The findings are based on a literature review of FBS outlook studies, strategies and programs and services-related studies in FBS and general services literature. Three case examples of services businesses in FBS companies are presented, and possible foresight approaches related to them are discussed. Foresight methods used in parallel sectors are also discussed.Findings– The study provides the first systematic introduction, classification and review of FBS services to include both industry- and non-industry-related services. The paper also points out the need for foresight studies and suggests various approaches for an analysis of the potential of FBS services in the future bioeconomy.Practical implications– The study shows that the role of services in FBS research has been understood too narrowly. As a result, services research has been rather lacking and the future potential of services in the FBS has not been fully acknowledged. The study argues for and points toward the need to use foresight approaches to update FBS strategies, business models and policies to fully benefit from the future potential of services.Originality/value– The study is a novel introduction, review and discussion of the role of services in the FBS and their future outlook.

Russiaas Water Resources 2030: Plausible Scenarios

The research presented in this paper focuses on the sustainable use of water resources in Russia based on a Foresight study with a 20-year time horizon. The study uses a scenario-planning method to develop four trajectories: economic depression, economic stagnation, visionary future, and national priority. These four trajectories offer significantly different yet plausible alternative futures. The current paper draws upon the earlier horizon scanning activity, which identified a set of trends, weak signals and wild cards, along with their implications for water resources in Russia. Based on this work, it identifies key factors and indicators, which may characterize future developments in the following domains: (i) the sustainability of water systems; (ii) water use by households and industry; and (iii) new water products and services. The evolution of variables and indicators will then be considered under the scenarios termed ‘Nearly perfect future’ (economic growth), ‘Problem conservation’ (economic stagnation), ‘Losses and accidents’ (economic depression), and ‘National priority’ trajectories. The paper concludes with a brief description of further research directions, including a discussion on the probability of the scenarios being implemented. Russian policy makers and water companies may use the scenarios to adapt (i.e. plan for timely responses), avert certain undesirable future developments, or approximate the visionary future of the sector.

Wild cards in transport

The analysis of Wild Cards, potential low-likelihood but high-impact events, in foresight studies is important in order to counter the tendency of decision makers to deny major surprises. This paper presents the results of an empirical analysis of 14 technological, geopolitical and societal Wild Cards in the transport field, carried out within the EU FP7 project RACE2050. The Wild Cards were elicited through interviews and in brainstorming sessions, and then assessed in an online expert survey. For each Wild Card, experts assessed likelihood in different time-frames, the impact on and vulnerability of different industry segments, the breadth of the effect, and the importance for decision makers to prepare. Some weak signals that may hint at a growing likelihood of certain Wild Cards were also suggested. Results show that the likelihood rises with time. Several Wild Cards reach high likelihood in 2040 or beyond, while the time by which full impact is reached varies. Based on these findings challenges and threats for transport have been identified, pointing to the fact that further research should focus on complex scenario building based on interlinks between ongoing trends and Wild Cards.

The Future of the Natural Resources Sector in Russia

Environmental management, technologies, products and services are commonly expected to provide significant economic opportunities for companies and countries. This is mainly due to increasing awareness among politicians, academics and the wider population on the importance of environmental aspects in daily life. Consequently demand for environmentally friendly solutions is expected to grow continuously in the next decade. The present study is part of a broader research project which examines the long-term science and technology (S&T) agenda in Russia up to 2030. The project's results were approved by the Prime Minister of Russia in early January 2014. Researchers from the National Research University Higher School of Economics carried out the research project at the request of the Russian Ministry of Education and Science between 2011 and 2013. The research comprised six interrelated spheres: ICT; biotechnology, medicine and public health; new materials and nanotechnologies; environmental management; transport and space systems; and energy efficiency and energy conservation. For each sphere, the project explored in-depth the global emergent challenges and opportunities, the risks, and their degree of influence on Russia. The authors analysed the most important potential market niches, products and services that are capable of radically shaping world markets and highlighted their competitive advantages. Within the framework of these priority science areas authors emphasised several spheres of particular potential value and compared the level of research carried out in Russia and the leading countries. The current paper also covers the analyses the natural resources sector made within a project aimed at integration of national and sectoral S&T Foresight studies funded by the Russian Ministry of Education and Science. Findings show that the potential applications for environmental products and services are manifold. The study is based on a thorough analysis of expert opinions and their assessment of future applications and the development of demand for these applications. However the authors note that the expert opinions included in the assessment of prospective products, services and markets, despite being based on rigorous assessment, still reflect expectations. Their opinions incorporate a degree of uncertainty especially with regard to how and when (or whether) the markets, technologies, products and services will develop in the expected ways.

A Delphi Technology Foresight Study: Mapping Social Construction of Scientific Evidence on Metagenomics Tests for Water Safety.

Access to clean water is a grand challenge in the 21st century. Water safety testing for pathogens currently depends on surrogate measures such as fecal indicator bacteria (e.g., E. coli). Metagenomics concerns high-throughput, culture-independent, unbiased shotgun sequencing of DNA from environmental samples that might transform water safety by detecting waterborne pathogens directly instead of their surrogates. Yet emerging innovations such as metagenomics are often fiercely contested. Innovations are subject to shaping/construction not only by technology but also social systems/values in which they are embedded, such as experts’ attitudes towards new scientific evidence. We conducted a classic three-round Delphi survey, comprised of 107 questions. A multidisciplinary expert panel (n = 24) representing the continuum of discovery scientists and policymakers evaluated the emergence of metagenomics tests. To the best of our knowledge, we report here the first Delphi foresight study of experts’ attitudes on (1) the top 10 priority evidentiary criteria for adoption of metagenomics tests for water safety, (2) the specific issues critical to governance of metagenomics innovation trajectory where there is consensus or dissensus among experts, (3) the anticipated time lapse from discovery to practice of metagenomics tests, and (4) the role and timing of public engagement in development of metagenomics tests. The ability of a test to distinguish between harmful and benign waterborne organisms, analytical/clinical sensitivity, and reproducibility were the top three evidentiary criteria for adoption of metagenomics. Experts agree that metagenomic testing will provide novel information but there is dissensus on whether metagenomics will replace the current water safety testing methods or impact the public health end points (e.g., reduction in boil water advisories). Interestingly, experts view the publics relevant in a “downstream capacity” for adoption of metagenomics rather than a co-productionist role at the “upstream” scientific design stage of metagenomics tests. In summary, these findings offer strategic foresight to govern metagenomics innovations symmetrically: by identifying areas where acceleration (e.g., consensus areas) and deceleration/reconsideration (e.g., dissensus areas) of the innovation trajectory might be warranted. Additionally, we show how scientific evidence is subject to potential social construction by experts’ value systems and the need for greater upstream public engagement on metagenomics innovations.

Gatekeepers in Russian High-Tech: A Study of Heads of Leading Research Centers

The paper proposes one of the first attempts to conceptualize the “human capital” in science and technology gatekeeping in Russia, based on obtaining sociological data on real active subjects. The study strives to provide analytical information on the specific characteristics and stances of individuals making a decisive contribution to the development of strategic areas in science and technology. In Russia, the most perceptible impact on changing the situation of new scientific knowledge production and, in particular, high-tech development comes from heads of “advanced” research laboratories. Capable of forming and carrying out their own research programmes, in the majority of instances they act as “gatekeepers” of the high-tech sector.In the first stage a quantitative questionnaire survey was carried out by means of a formalized interview (312 respondents). In the second stage qualitative information was collected using in-depth semi-structured individual interviews with the managers of leading laboratories in their field (31 interviews). The information on the gatekeeping strategies in the six science and technology priority areas was obtained.Research on the expert community associated with high-tech projects logically fits into the “cluster” of foresight studies, supplementing it with “human capital”.

The fate of phosphorus in the Yangtze (Changjiang) Estuary, China, under multi-stressors: Hindsight and forecast

The present study provides evidence that large dams that trap riverine sediment, decrease significantly SPM within estuaries, making them less turbid and less of a particulate trap for phosphorus adsorption. The study gives science-based insights for a future integrated estuarine water management in the Yangtze (Changjiang) Estuary. The hindsight focuses on the evolution and fate of riverine dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) in the Yangtze Estuary from 1999 to 2010. A significant correlation between phosphorus and suspended particulate matter (SPM) was established. This shows that, in the past decade, the estuary has changed from being a source of DIP to being a sink, and from a heterotrophic system to an autotrophic system. The ecosystem shift may be explained by the combined impact of the construction of dams that retain SPM but not nutrients, and to increasing nutrient fluxes to the estuary due to increasing usage of fertilizer and sewage. The foresight study is based on likely future scenarios for 2050. These are estimated using historical data and the stratified and a muddy-LOICZ model, which takes stratification and adsorption–desorption of phosphorus into account. We forecast that in 2050 the effective DIP inflow into the Yangtze Estuary will increase by a factor of 1.5 if the SPM remains at the current annual average of 700 mg L−1, and by a factor of 3.3 if the SPM decreases to 200 mg L−1 as a result of the dams, which will further degrade the estuary.