Foresight Studies Research Articles

Post-evaluation of foresight studies: Turkish case

The main purpose of the national foresight works is to define a ‘continuous and progressive’ ‘national strategy’ by bringing the developments in the science and technology in an appropriate form to meet the social and economics needs of the country with cooperation among government, industry and society. This study evaluates the Vision 2023 Technology Foresight (TF) Project, the first national TF study in Turkey. The paper also analyses the strengths and the weaknesses to provide a guideline for future foresight projects.

Scope and design issues in foresight support systems

The general rationale for conducting Foresight studies is to reduce uncertainty, for instance, by providing information in the form of scenarios, critical technology lists, priorities and recommendations for action. Such initiatives, aside from their discrete outputs, also tend to foster process benefits, which can include increased networking and coordination among actors. We propose Foresight Support Systems (FSSs) as collaborative computer-based systems aimed at supporting communication decision modelling rules of order in foresight processes. The relevance of the authors’ proposal arises from the growing necessity in Foresight for instruments that allow researchers and practitioners to innovate by means of an intensive use of Information Technology (IT). Issues such as the scope, the features, users and components of FSS are discussed.

Technological Monitoring Study Based on Invention Patents of Omeprazole and Derivatives with Pharmaceutical Applications

The current study intends to present the relevance of omeprazole, esomeprazole, rabeprazole, pantoprazole and lansoprazole by means of the technological foresight study, through invention patent documents from Brazilian applicants as indicators of innovation. The European database of patents (Espacenet), Word Patent Index (DERWENT) and the Brazilian Patent Base of INPI were used, combining keywords and International Patent Classifications. The major applicants, countries of publication and claims categories were mapped. The 212 patent requests collected are mainly distributed in Chemistry, Pharmacy and Pharmacology areas. The results obtained revealed that the US was the main country with studies directed to this technological area (59 patent applications) and the major applicant was the company Astrazeneca AB. Therefore, we can understand that this is a promising technology that may reflect in an increase of R&D activities and patent applications in this area.

A platform for a dialogue to be continued. Forward thinking in agriculture and food

How can agriculture produce food for 9 billion inhabitants in 2050 and achieve the Millennium Development Goals of alleviating poverty, reducing hunger and protecting the environment? In order to take up these challenges and to design tomorrow's food and agriculture systems, research organizations have to define strategies and options, and public policy makers their priorities from now on, relying on foresight studies. Various studies have been conducted to assess scenarios for the long-term future of food and agriculture in the world. Each one has its own objectives, methodologies, and results. Analyzing, comparing and discussing hypotheses, methodologies and results were the objectives of the FI4IAR/CTA seminar Thinking Forward: assessments, projections and foresights, organized during the GCARD 2010 process. This dialogue, which sometimes led to scientific disputes, proved productive and encouraging. Is it a forum that should be continued in the future?

Foresight on Taiwan nanotechnology industry in 2020

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to create a vision and obtain a consensus on Taiwan's nanotechnology industry in three dimensions (the 2007 situation, the R&D maturation time, and the 2020 scenario). It then seeks to foster a set of development strategies for Taiwan in 2020.Design/methodology/approachA Delphi‐based foresight study together with an expert discussion meeting has been conducted to obtain a consensus for Taiwan nanotechnology in 2020.FindingsThe paper provides the results of the first Delphi‐based survey on Taiwan nanotechnology development. The Nano Bio Medicine domain has greater maturity; the maturation time of most techniques will be 2010‐2015; Nanocomposite Material Technique, Nano Optoelectronic and Optical Communication, and Nano Storage show relatively high competitiveness. Self‐R&D and Technology introduced from overseas are the major development methods in 2020.Practical implicationsThe paper is of interest to foresight practitioners and policy makers at the industrial and government levels in Taiwan.Originality/valueThe paper is the first publication to identify Taiwan's 2020 nanotechnology development by Delphi‐based foresight investigation.

On theory building in Foresight and Futures Studies: A discussion note

On theory building in Foresight and Futures Studies: A discussion note

Carbon Storage and Its Spatial Pattern of Terrestrial Ecosystem in China

Process mechanisms of carbon storage and carbon cycle in earth system are the scientific foundation for analyzing the cause of climate change, forecasting the climate change trend, and making mitigation and adaptation countermeasures, which have attracted great attention from the scientific community and international community. Since the late 1980s, Chinese scientists have carried out a great deal of research on the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle, and have made great progress in many fields. In this paper, we review the history of the research on the terrestrial carbon cycle in China, summarize the results of the carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems and its spatial patterns, evaluate the uncertainties of the research, and put forward important scientific issues which are needed to be addressed urgently. Overall, the research on the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems in China consists of four stages of development, i.e., the early carbon cycle research, the comprehensive study on the carbon cycle at regional scale, the experimental research on the adaptation of ecosystem carbon cycle to climate change, and the coupling cycles of C-N-H2O and the regional regulation and control. Most studies indicate that carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in China and its spatial pattern are controlled by temperature and precipitation. About 97.95–118.93 Pg carbon is stored in soil, forest and grassland in China. Since the mid 1970s, many management measures such as afforestation and forest management, grassland protection, farming system reformation and conservation tillage, have played important roles in carbon sequestration. However, large uncertainty exists among the evaluation results with various methods. In the future we should focus on the integrated monitoring system of the dynamics of carbon storage and carbon sink, foresight studies on the coupling cycles of ecosystem C-N-H2O and its regional regulation and control, quantitative assessment on the carbon budget and the potential of carbon sink of ecosystems in China, the evaluation of the economic benefit of various technologies for increasing carbon sink of typical ecosystems, and the measurable, reportable and verifiable scientific data and technical supports for establishing the policy framework of greenhouse gas management and carbon trading at national scale.

Sociological contributions to futures’ theory building

PurposeThis article aims to contribute to futures theory building by assessing the inherent ontological and epistemological presumptions in foresight studies. Such premises, which are usually embedded in foresight studies, are contrasted with sociological imagination and contemporary social science discourse.Design/methodology/approachThis paper is a conceptual analysis of theoretical assumptions embedded in foresight studies.FindingsSociological lenses, including concepts like anticipation, latency, time, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity, change and plurality of images, offer clarity in terms of both futures studies and foresights.Research limitations/implicationsExplicating presumptions embedded in foresight methods helps recognition of how such methods shape the concepts of future and time. This is vital for assessment of the analytical products of foresights studies.Originality/valueThis research contributes to the ambition of linking the theoretical world of futures research and the practical world of foresights closer together by explicating key concepts and implicit assumptions in both fields.

BOOK REVIEW: "The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice", Edited by Luke Georghiou, Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Michael Keenan, Ian Miles, Rafael Popper

Technology foresight is one of the important research areas in our field of managing innovation and technology. Georghiou et al. present a marvelous review of methods and applications for developing a technological vision. The book starts with an introduction to the foresight process and a review of available methodologies. The chapter focusing on the methodologies provides a very comprehensive list. A total of 33 different methodologies are described. The methodologies listed are also used for technology assessment and forecasting. For that reason, the book presents a value for many of us who have been studying technology evaluation of for those whose jobs are to evaluate and make decisions on the technological investments. The second part of the book includes foresight application from all around the world. The foresight studies reported in this part include those from United Kingdom, France, Germany, USA, Japan, Nordic countries, as well as smaller and developing countries. The chapters on these applications include the flow of the process used, methodologies employed and the topics discussed in each foresight project. This part would be very valuable for those planning to implement similar foresight projects in their countries and even in their organizations. The methods and the approached can easily be scaled up and down depending on the size of the organization. The third part of the book introduces largely the concepts of managing the foresight project. It starts with a chapter exploring how different projects were influenced by others. The other chapters introduce the planning aspects of such projects as well as how to evaluate the impact of these projects. The final chapter charts the future for the foresight science and applications. I would recommend this book wholeheartedly to all the researchers in the areas of management of technological investments.

Robert Rosen's anticipatory systems

PurposeThis article aims to be an expository introduction to Robert Rosen's anticipatory systems, the theory of which provides the conceptual basis for foresight studies.Design/methodology/approachThe ubiquity of anticipatory systems in nature is explained.FindingsCausality is not violated by anticipatory systems, and teleology is an integral aspect of science.Practical implicationsA terse exposition for a general readership, such as the present article, by definition cannot get into too many details. For further exploration the reader is referred to the recent book More than Life Itself by the author.Originality/valueThe topic of anticipatory systems in particular, and methods of relational biology in general, provide important tools for foresight studies. It is the author's hope that this brief glimpse into the world of relational biology piques the interest of some readers to pursue the subject further.

Benchmarking and Budgeting Techniques for Improved Forensic Laboratory Management

Abstract Forensic laboratories are not immune from downturns in the worldwide economy. Recession and economic slowdowns, when coupled with the public's heightened sense of the capabilities of forensic science, put stress on the effectiveness of forensic laboratories. The resources available to forensic laboratories are limited, and managers are under greater pressure to improve efficiency and effectiveness. To this end, the use of internal and external financial and accounting metrics to plan, control, evaluate, and communicate performance is examined. Using data from the QUADRUPOL and FORESIGHT studies, we illustrate the use of external benchmarking through a calculation of laboratory return on investment and the internal development and use of a budget to enhance laboratory performance in light of limited resources.

Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: Handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change

Today many companies in many industries put a lot of efforts into monitoring and investigating emerging drivers of change in their business environment, particularly in relation to new technologies and events in the social, economic, political and ecological landscapes which surround their industry. So far scholars in the literature on foresight and future studies focused on the techniques and practices for analysing the “state” uncertainty about the likely path of evolution of emerging drivers of change. Anyway, less attention was devoted to the “effect” uncertainty about the impact of drivers of change on the competitive position of the firm and to the “response” uncertainty about how to take advantage of these drivers. These are the main issues we take into account, through a field research on firms that, notwithstanding they were able to properly assess the likely evolution (state uncertainty) of relevant drivers of change in their industry, either were successful or dramatically failed in handling the effect and response uncertainty of these drivers. Moreover, we carried out multiple case studies of some large companies that have established an organizational unit dedicated to strategic foresight. Overall, the results of our research may contribute to improve the effectiveness of strategic foresight and to increase its value added to the planning process of corporate firms, while providing helpful insight to public organizations that promote foresight exercises for enhancing the competitiveness of local firms.

Technology foresight: types and methods

This paper posits nine dimensions to distinguish the types of foresight studies. It arrays a rich repertoire of 13 families of foresight methods. It then suggests considerations in deciding which of those methods suit the various types of foresight endeavours. There is no one way to conduct effective foresight studies.

The impact of foresight studies on human healthcare in the post-genomic era

Under the conditions of increased demand for ways of addressing the future through strategic intelligence, foresight is progressively being embedded as a planning, consultation and decision making tool. A typology of foresight outcomes is developed in order to more effectively evaluate, and assess the impact of foresight on policy. A case study of a recent multi-national foresight project which examined human health care in the post-genomic era demonstrates the crucial role of foresight in providing a means to grasp the complexity of the potential impacts, for reconciling the many different perspectives involved, and for providing a sound basis for future policies. The impact of the project is assessed against the various possible outcomes.

Technological Foresight Based on Citing and Cited Patents of Cellulose with Pharmaceutical Applications

The present study intends to present the relevance of cellulose by means of the technological foresight study through citing and cited documents from a patent application (WO 9745131 A1) as indicators of innovation. The European database of patents (espacenet) was used, combining keywords and IPC. The major applicants, countries of publication and uses were mapped. The patent requests collected are mainly distributed in the area of polymers to medical devices and therapeutic methods that utilize cellulose. The results obtained revealed that the US was the main country with studies directed to this technological area (18 patent applications) and the major applicant was the company Micro Therapeutics Inc. Therefore, we can understand that this is a promising technology that may reflect in an increase of R&D activities and in the patent deposits in this area.

Foresight in mission-oriented research: The SYSPAHMM foresight method (SYStem, Processes, Clusters of Hypotheses, Micro- and Macroscenarios)

Between 1993 and 2003, foresight activities gradually became an integral part of INRA's operation and a specific methodology was forged: the SYSPAHMM 1 1 In French, SYSPAHMM: SYStème, Processus, Agrégats d’Hypothèses, Micro et Macroscénarios. foresight method. The authors describe the different stages of the method. It begins with a static graphic description of the system that will then be made dynamic through the identification of processes and quantified by state variables. This phase is of utmost importance since it provides the foundation for everything that follows. The most important processes are then transformed into hypotheses that either come to be or do not, one of the central points of the approach, before establishing a matrix of the influences of each hypothesis on the others. Breaking down these hypotheses into clusters of hypotheses that are more closely related among themselves than to the others allows us to build microscenarios. The idea of a scenario is discussed. The possibility of global scenarios and macroscenarios is explained. The presentation concludes with a discussion of research and action strategies. The conclusion focuses on the advantages of foresight studies for organizations, whether they are research oriented or not.

Futures schools of thought within the integral futures framework

PurposeThis paper aims to expand on the findings of the SOPIFF project by identifying eight futures schools of thought, and then analyze and critique these through the integral futures (IF) framework. This paper, Part I, also aims to focus on the upper quadrants of the IF framework.Design/methodology/approachThe paper adapts Wilber's integral theory to clarify various philosophical orientations towards the future. It also adapts Polak's approach to futures as a matter of “social critique and reconstruction”; however, here the approach is global, civilizational, and integral, so it proposes civilizational critique and integral reconstruction as a method for evaluating futures schools of thought.FindingsThe IF framework has proved to be a valuable theoretical and analytical tool since it clarifies not only orientations to the future but also demonstrates the dynamic lines of development and interactions throughout all four quadrants, illustrating how the four‐quadrant approach is an effective framework for understanding the crisis of civilization and the response needed at this time in history to bring about a preferred future.Research implications/limitationsThe paper draws and expands upon the findings of the SOPIFF project as a way to better understand the “global problematique.” Thus, this paper suggests some implications of that research and proposes the integral futures framework as a way to interpret research findings. Future research should attempt to develop and apply the IF framework similarly in order to realize a sustainable, integrally‐informed image of the future of human civilization.Practical implicationsAn integrally‐informed approach to futures and foresight studies should help develop and improve futures methodology/practices in general. The IF framework helps to understand philosophical orientations underlying practices and applications.Originality/valueThis application of the IF framework to various mainstream futures schools of thought is original. It should help futurists to see and interpret the bigger picture regarding images of the future in a civilizational context by revealing the “crack” in the modern image of the future, how it relates to the current world crisis, and what is needed to heal the crack so that a new, more integrally‐informed, sustainable image of the future can emerge.

The future of science and technology and pro‐poor applications

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to highlight the overall lack of focus of existing foresight analysis concerning the future of science and technology on the issue of poverty. The paper looks to re‐orient the technology foresight community to adopting an explicit pro‐poor perspective when considering future developments in science and technology (S&T).Design/methodology/approachThe paper presents a general overview of existing technology foresight studies from organizations located in North America, Europe, and Asia. By describing the key points made in a selection of foresight studies, the paper emphasizes the conceptual links between forward‐looking analysis related to S&T and poverty‐related issues.FindingsThe paper reaches two main conclusions about the role of S&T foresight and development. The first is that the foresight research community needs to interact more closely with the development community in order to enhance the value of the findings in each field to the other. Second, the pressing matter of poverty alleviation requires that the foresight community should come together and create a sense of urgency in issues that have long‐term implications but need immediate action and attention.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper is limited to an approach that provides an overview of existing work in technology foresight. While no such review could be comprehensive, this paper provides examples of technology foresight analysis from a range of geographies, sectors, and perspectives to help mitigate this gap.Practical implicationsThe argument suggests that technology foresight practitioners should make issues of poverty an explicit topic or category of analysis in future technology foresight activities. Including poverty issues in future scenario activities would go a long way to closing this gap.Originality/valueThis paper synthesizes ideas from a variety of forward‐looking studies addressing the future of science and technology and identifies the need to include poverty as a dimension for analysis in future studies. In addition, the paper provides an introduction to technology foresight work being conducted in Asia by the APEC Center for Technology Foresight.

Proposed E-government Foresight Framework in Developing Countries, A Systematic Approach

E-government foresight is a major issues for many countries. It is a systematic approach for looking into the long-term futures. E-government initiatives are currently at a stage of integration and new orientation in developing countries. Smaller steps of government modernization have in part been successfully implemented; larger ones still lie ahead of us. This demands a framework for e- government foresight studies. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for the e-government foresight. Firstly, the main components of foresight from different foresight frameworks were identified using meta-synthesis approach. Then, expert’s opinion about identified components are collected and validated. The e-government foresight framework was proposed based on the Zachman architecture framework. Finally, appropriate activities and methods for conducting each stages of the framework are summarized. The implications of the results addressed a range of main issues such as dedicated framework, increased internal communication and knowledge sharing, and enhanced project management effectiveness.

Research / Science / Development

As in other societal realms also in research, science, and development governments and parliaments increasingly have to legitimize their actions and want to base their future activities on informed decisions. Consequently, performance measures, benchmarking, comparative analysis, “foresight studies” are increasingly asked for. Ranking, ratings and evaluations are introduced throughout the system supposedly providing on the one hand the requested transparency and at the same time acting as stimuli to improve the performance. However, to date central questions relating to the underlying methodologies and indicators used are unanswered. These questions concern the availability and appropriateness of the data, indicator construction and methodologies on the one hand, tackle issues as how to deal with effects due to disciplinary, sectoral, regional or national differences, and concern the intended and unintended effects of the instruments used. In the contribution these issues are described and discussed in more detail. In Germany so far infrastructural deficiencies e.g. the fragmentation of research groups addressing those issues prevent adequately addressing the open research questions. Behind this background the two most important tasks identified are them the development of a decentralized data collection system enabling standard definitions and the development of a competitive research infrastructure.