Abstract
The analysis of Wild Cards, potential low-likelihood but high-impact events, in foresight studies is important in order to counter the tendency of decision makers to deny major surprises. This paper presents the results of an empirical analysis of 14 technological, geopolitical and societal Wild Cards in the transport field, carried out within the EU FP7 project RACE2050. The Wild Cards were elicited through interviews and in brainstorming sessions, and then assessed in an online expert survey. For each Wild Card, experts assessed likelihood in different time-frames, the impact on and vulnerability of different industry segments, the breadth of the effect, and the importance for decision makers to prepare. Some weak signals that may hint at a growing likelihood of certain Wild Cards were also suggested. Results show that the likelihood rises with time. Several Wild Cards reach high likelihood in 2040 or beyond, while the time by which full impact is reached varies. Based on these findings challenges and threats for transport have been identified, pointing to the fact that further research should focus on complex scenario building based on interlinks between ongoing trends and Wild Cards.
Highlights
Page 2 of 24Schwartz and Randall [4] stress the importance of using imaginative Bunlikely^ scenarios to counter this effect
The analysis of Wild Cards, potential lowlikelihood but high-impact events, in foresight studies is important in order to counter the tendency of decision makers to deny major surprises
Major surprises are often caused by denial
Summary
Schwartz and Randall [4] stress the importance of using imaginative Bunlikely^ scenarios to counter this effect. Weak signals are Bprecursor events^ or Bearly warnings^, namely slight changes in the current state of affairs or in existing trends that−if observed and correctly interpreted−may hint at a growing likelihood of occurrence of a certain Wild Card These signals may be unclear, but they may become clearer in time (if monitored) or stronger, perhaps in combination with other signals. Another source was the ‘Global Europe 2050’ report; a detailed description can be found in Hauptman et al 2014 [8] Based on these activities, fourteen Wild Cards were selected for a subsequent analysis by means of an online expert survey in order to estimate their potential impact and likelihood (in different time-frames), relevance for the European transport sector, competitiveness and related challenges, as described in further detail . In parallel to the construction of Bconventional^ scenarios, it was decided to
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