Shift In Foreign Policy Research Articles

Where is Serbia's stabilitocracy heading to? A Break from the past but without a future

Since 2012, the gradual establishment of a new type of political regime, stabilitocracy in the Balkan region and Serbia in particular has raised many questions. From Europeanization (failed attempts), active and instrumentalized memory activism, and progressivism, to the foreign policy shift compared to Yugoslavia and, broadly speaking, the contestability of the liberal peacebuilding processes at work in Serbia, this paper engages in a critical discussion about its constituents and emphasizes the limits of the current Serbian political pattern beyond dogmatism and partisan discourses, and by showing greater openness to non-Western ways of thinking.

THE TURNING POINT OF THE FOREIGN POLICY OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKIYE: TURNING EAST

In the late twentieth century, after the end of the Cold War, the world underwent a significant transformation, leading to a multipolar system. This shift was characterized by the rise of various regional powers seeking to play a prominent role in global politics. The Republic of Turkiye, in particular, has been actively seeking to assert its position in the contemporary international order. This article examines the complexities of Turkish foreign policy, analyzing its legal framework, current aspects, priorities, and strategic approaches. Additionally, it explores the shift in Turkish foreign policy towards Eastern regions, away from its historical dependence on the West and towards the concept of "Turkish World", particularly in relation to Turkic-speaking countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus. In addition, the paper provides theoretical insights into the impact of foreign policy and diplomacy on various stakeholders, as well as the potential of soft power tools in the pursuit of foreign policy goals.

Explaining populist securitization and Rodrigo Duterte's anti-establishment Philippine foreign policy

Abstract To the surprise of many, populist leader Rodrigo Duterte instigated major shifts in Philippine foreign policy. His antagonism against the United States and European Union, fascination towards the revisionist Russia and China, and disdain for international law and institutions were viewed as significant departures from the nation's orthodox stances. Drawing on Moffitt and Tormey's conception of populism as a political style, and Buzan, Wæver and de Wilde's securitization theory, we develop and test the populist securitization framework in the context of Duterte's foreign policy-making. We argue that populist performances are securitizing acts comprised of distinctly populist performative repertoires used by political leaders to frame and execute an ‘anti-establishment’ foreign policy with sufficient level of audience consent. Using discursive interpretative analysis, we examine the impacts of Duterte's populist securitization of the liberal West as a threat to Philippine sovereignty. We find that while populist performances function as securitizing acts that can reorient established foreign policy positions and biases, such performances lead to uncertainty and erosion of credibility amid institutional fragmentation and domestic political distractions. Thus, the sustainability of populist performances on foreign policy depends on reconciling the tensions and overlaps between the populist leader's varying audiences and their mass constituencies.

The KMT’s Shifting Approach to the Outside World during the 1920s: A Reinvention of Chinese Confucianism

Through a Confucian lens, this research explores the transformation of the Kuomintang’s (國民黨; KMT) foreign policy during the 1920s. It examines the shift in the KMT's foreign policy from Sun Yat-Sen’s 孫逸仙 (1866-1925) “Allying with Soviet Russia” (lian’e 聯俄) stance to Chiang Kai-shek’s 蔣介石 (1887-1975) prioritization of Western relations around 1927. The study highlights the reintroduction of Confucianism in the KMT's foreign policy during this period, considering the conventional Confucian education of KMT leaders. Unlike previous studies analyzing this shift from political or historical perspectives, this study provides a chronological analysis that centers around the change to Confucianism. It addresses a significant research vacuum in the existing literature and uses archival analysis to examine the evolution of the KMT’s foreign policy. The study examines primary sources such as Sun’s speeches, Chiang's diary, and contemporaneous memoirs. The study comprises three chronological sections. The first section (1920–1924) explores the influence of Confucianism on Sun’s alignment with Soviet Russia due to commonalities between Confucianism and Communism. The second section (1924-1927) examines how Confucianism shaped the KMT’s Western-oriented shift. The third section (1928–1930) delves into the philosophical basis of the Treaty Revision Movement (Gaiding xinyue yundong 改訂新約運動) and the adoption of ‘keeping good faith and pursuing harmony’ (Jiangxin xiumu 講信修睦) as the foreign policy principle. This research concludes that Sun, inspired by Confucian-Communist parallels, initially aligned with Soviet Russia but that later, under Chiang’s leadership, the KMT used “The Confucianisation of the Three People’s Principles” (Sanminzhuyi 三民主義) in its consolidation of a power shift towards the West and adopted Confucian principles to further legitimize its rule by promoting the New Treaty Movement.

Peace as a hypothetical imperative: Brazil's foreign policy standpoint on the war in Ukraine

AbstractThe text traces Brazil's pacifist stance back to the early 20th century, rooted in a pragmatic approach to conserve resources and foster economic growth. It discusses the role of public opinion in shaping Brazil's response to the conflict, highlighting a pro‐neutrality tendency within the populace. The article also analyses the continuity of Brazil's stance under two different presidents, emphasising that despite a change in leadership, there has been no structural shift in foreign policy concerning this matter. We then reflect on Brazil's evolving role on the global stage, considering its historical alignment with the West and the changing dynamics driven by factors such as China's rising influence and the BRICS grouping. The continuing conflict in Ukraine is portrayed as an illustrative case, providing insights on the prospective foreign policy conduct of Global South actors.

South Korea in 2023

In 2023, South Korea faced turbulence under the Yoon Suk-Yeol administration, which was marked by democratic challenges, foreign policy shifts, and high political tensions. This report examines South Korea’s transformative year, with a focus on ongoing leadership transitions, emerging diplomatic horizons for freedom and human rights, economic challenges stemming from “Peak Korea,” and key social issues, including a high suicide rate, low birth rate, and the controversy over the dog meat ban. It also discusses President Yoon’s challenges as the leader of a global pivot state.

Historical Echoes in Contemporary Diplomacy: Analyzing Xi Jinping Administrations Policy Toward Taiwan Within the Framework of Chinas Century of Humiliation

This paper investigates the complex interplay between historical narratives and contemporary foreign policy, with a particular focus on China under Xi Jinpings leadership. It is structured into several sections, each delving into different aspects of this relationship. Section II integrates IR and history, discussing presentism and contextualism methodologies. Section III examines the Century of Humiliation (CH) narrative promoted by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its impact on Chinas national identity and foreign policy. It explores how this period, marked by foreign invasions and loss of territories, influences Chinas current assertive stance on sovereignty and territorial integrity. Section IV focuses on the rise of Wolf Warrior diplomacy during Xi Jinpings tenure, highlighting a shift in Chinese foreign policy towards a more assertive and aggressive approach, fueled by a revived nationalistic sentiment. Section V uses Taiwan as a case study to illustrate the impact of the CH narrative on Xi Jinpings foreign policy, including the triangular dynamics of U.S.-PRC-Taiwan relations. In conclusion, the paper underscores the significant influence of historical consciousness in shaping Chinas foreign policy.

South Korea's Foreign Policy Shifts Under President Yoon and Implications for the Sino-US Peer Competition

South Korea, caught amid the intensifying Sino-US peer competition, has begun to re-orientate its foreign policy under President Yoon Suk-yeol, significantly shifting it away from his predecessor President Moon Jae-in. At the crux of these policy changes is a shift away from the so-called “Three Noes”, which have existed as a policy stopgap in order to stabilize Seoul's position between China and the US following the 2017 THAAD debacle. This policy shift indicates that the Yoon administration has begun removing policy stopgaps that facilitated hedging behavior and is trimming South Korea's hedge tacking harder on the US for security and aligning as a core Asian state with the Rules-based International Order. Nevertheless, careful strategic calculus is required to avoid backlash from Beijing, despite Yoon seeking closer alignment with Washington. The policy shift underway has the geostrategic potential to solidify the Northeast Asian flank of Washington's efforts to counter Beijing, with a phalanx of Asia-Pacific allies and partners.

Human Security Implications of Foreign Military Bases in Djibouti

The principles of sovereignty and non-interference have historically shaped China's foreign policy, serving as fundamental tenets to safeguard the nation from external interventions, particularly during and after the Cold War. However, in recent times, there has been a noticeable shift in China's foreign policy as it embarks on an unprecedented expansion of its military presence beyond its borders. This shift is exemplified by the establishment of a permanent military base in Djibouti, situated in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region, which China refers to as "support facilities" or "logistical facilities." This marks China's inaugural venture into maintaining a permanent military presence outside its territorial boundaries. This study delves into the motivations behind China's adjusted foreign policy stance and examines the implications of this new approach on human security. While acknowledging the critical human insecurity implications associated with China's military presence in Djibouti, the analysis reveals a multifaceted strategy encompassing economic, political, ideological, and security interests. This strategic move positions China as a significant global player, shaping its role on the world stage.

Considering How India’s Middle East Policy Has Changed and Remained Consistent Since 2019 Under Modi Government

The review of India’s Middle East strategy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has garnered attention. Modi’s outreach to Israel, including a historic 2017 visit, departs from India’s traditional pro-Arab and pro-Palestine stance. His subsequent visits to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, and Oman engage major regional players. Does this foreshadow a foreign policy shift? Can Modi’s preferences explain this shift? This paper aims to extract insights on Modi’s influence on this policy evolution. Drawing from foreign policy studies, it questions prevailing interpretations, suggesting a noteworthy change in India’s stance in the Middle East.

Tendencje behawioralne w polityce zagranicznej Turcji w okresie rządów Partii Sprawiedliwości i Rozwoju

Behavioral trends in Turkish foreign policy during the rule of the Justice and Development Party Turkey’s foreign policy behavior in a given period can be understood by examining the ruling party and domestic relations, the interests and composition of the governing coalition and prevalent international dynamics. The aim of the article is to show, that paradigmatic shifts in foreign policy and the drivers of Turkey’s quest for autonomous policy space can be understood as an outcome of interrelated transformations at global, regional and domestic levels. After 2010, Turkish foreign policy was marked by a period of „autonomization”, in which the ruling party decided to fill the geopolitical vacuum created in the region after the failure of negotiations with the European Union in the gradual withdrawal of the United States from the local diplomatic chessboard.

CONTEMPORARY PROCESSES IN CENTRAL ASIA AND CHINA'S DIPLOMACY IN THE REGION IN THE ERA OF UPGRADED COOPERATION

In this academic article, an attempt is made to present the perception of Chinese scholars on the development of contemporary processes in Central Asia and the policies of foreign states and unions in the region in the context of changing international and regional dynamics. The research results shed light on the existing perceptions within Chinese academic circles regarding the current state and trajectory of Central Asian countries' relations with foreign actors, ongoing geopolitical changes, the process of strengthening intra-regional cooperation, and a significant shift in China's foreign policy in Central Asia.

The War in Ukraine and Arab Gulf States’ Foreign Policy Shifts

Abstract This paper discusses geopolitical shifts in the international order with regard to divergent perceptions and interests on the war in Ukraine between western states and the Gulf Cooperation Council states (gcc), specifically the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). These two leading gcc states now prioritise their own national interests by valuing multipolar partnerships, rather than solely relying on strong strategic ties with the West and US. The article aims to explore to what extent the war in Ukraine reveals a new phase in the power balance between the west and the Arab Gulf states. The initial outcomes of the war have already weakened Russia’s global status and forced Moscow to redirect its strategy towards the east, particularly China. This has also led to increased military cooperation between Russian and Iranian, as well as a rapprochement due to the weight of western economic sanctions imposed on both states. Concurrently, China’s significant role in world policy has become more evident through its direct political involvement in the restoration of Saudi-Iranian diplomatic relations, as seen in the agreement signed in Beijing on 10 March 2023. With the war in Ukraine significantly impacting the global energy market and regional power dynamics, the multipolar momentum gives the advantage to Gulf states that realise that this is an opportune time to capitalise on taking autonomous regional initiatives and fostering diversified partnerships from the west to the east.

Russian Foreign Policy Concept and Global Health: The War as a Turning Point

Abstract: This essay argues that the complex qualitative shift in Russian foreign policy has far-reaching implications for international cooperation on global health governance and health security. “Global health” in Russia’s new Foreign Policy Concept (FPC) is less about the country’s existence in the well-established “Global Health” architecture but more about presenting itself as a sovereign power with a global strategy based on national science, technology, and health security capacities aimed to operate more effectively during various biological incidents with strategic consequences for national security. While pandemic preparedness and the next international response to the health crisis must be more efficient, Russia is a critical starting point for thinking about the future of cooperation on global health security.

India’s Foreign Aid Policy Shift During the Covid-19 Pandemic

The Indian government introduced the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA) amendment in 2020 to streamline its foreign aid mechanisms and ensure greater transparency and commitment to the state’s long legacy of refusal to aid principles. However, India has proven to be ineffective in implementing new aid regulations, as reflected by its delayed aid distribution system and the reality that it is even harder for Indian nonprofits to receive foreign aid. India’s aid regime then became the highlight of the international community due to millions of aid given to the state, but the FCRA rules made it almost impossible for actors other than the government to distribute them. The stringent rules of the FCRA raised many questions about whether India had genuinely decided to accept foreign aid. Thus, this study aims to qualitatively explain the foreign aid policy shift enacted by India during the Covid-19 pandemic.

An Afrocentric Analysis of the Practicality of Radical Economic Transformation in the Context of South Africa–China Relations, 2013–2017

Ascending to the presidency at the time of the lingering global economic crisis, Jacob Zuma drew South Africa closer to China as an alternative development partner. The scholarly literature on South Africa–China relations during Zuma's administration focuses largely on whether the relationship was mutually beneficial and on the purported shift in South Africa's foreign policy from Euro-American developed countries towards the East, with China being at the forefront. Despite the widespread calls for radical economic transformation during Zuma's administration, the existing discourse has not interrogated the practicality of the proposed policy in the context of South Africa–China relations. In light of the above, the current article adopts Afrocentricity to interrogate the practicality of radical economic transformation in the context of South Africa–China relations. Methodologically, the author engaged in qualitative desktop research that relied heavily on secondary data and employed document review to analyse the collected data.

India’s National Role Conception and Relations with GCC Countries under Modi: A Focus on Saudi Arabia

India’s conception of its peaceful role in international affairs, which evolved during the Nehruvian era, is not an end in itself, but rather a wholesome strategic choice consistent with its economic development and great power ambitions. Despite emphasising a radical shift in foreign policy, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi deemed it essential to prioritise peace in international relations, particularly with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The Abraham Accords, involving the UAE and Bahrain, have created a new geopolitical environment that affirms India’s conception of security through peace and permits engagement in key areas while ensuring economic gains.

Identity, Nostalgia and Religion: Making Sense of Turkey and the Balkan Relations in the Twenty-first Century

This article deals with Turkey’s increasing involvement and activism in the Balkan Peninsula between 2002 and 2022, under the rule of the Justice and Development Party and asks two different questions 1) If the Balkan elites perceive the policies implemented by Turkey differently and relatively pejoratively, what is the reason for this and how can we explain it theoretically? 2) What kind of differences does the current position of Turkey-Balkan relations cause us to observe in classical international relations? To answer these questions, this study seeks to shed much needed light on this aspect of Turkish relations with its Balkan neighbours in the context of the broader shift in Turkish domestic and foreign policy under the AKP from a realist-secular orientation to an ambiguous Sunni Islamic. Therefore, it explains the complex relations between religion, nostalgia and identity, and its reflections on state power.

PROTECTIONISM IN CONDITIONS OF WORLD TRADE MULTIPOLARITY

In terms of the formation of the world trade multipolar system, the issues concerning the implementation of a protectionist trade policy appear especially acute and are the primary focus of both theorists and practitioners. This paper primarily aims to explore trade protectionism in the global economy in conditions of multipolarity, to identify the vectors of the war in Ukraine's influence on policy in the sphere of food trade, to determine the origins of the WTO crisis in the system of multilateral regulation of international trade and to assess the prospects of further ensuring free trade doctrines, which is based on combinatorial approach and included the calculation of quantitative indicators of foreign trade restrictiveness and estimation of qualitative parameters of shifts in foreign trade policy. The empirical findings indicate high dynamism of increasing new trade restrictions, in particular export ones, caused at first by the COVID-19 pandemic and later by the war in Ukraine; slow but constant increase in import restrictions, so that at the end of 2022 9% of global import was affected by import restrictions; growth in export restrictive measures on food, feed and fertilizers as a response to food security challenges, caused by the war in Ukraine. The current paper reveals the necessity to take into account import dependence indicators and import capacity of export in formulating vectors of transformation of foreign trade policy towards national production support in the context of economic nationalism ideology. The authors emphasize the importance of the WTO dispute settlement system and the failures in its implementation call into question the possibility of organization functioning in the existing format, particularly as the number and spread of RTAs surged. Prospects for further research in this area are the assessment of macroeconomic effects and threats of the unilateral opening of the Ukrainian economy for imports against the background of the protectionist policy of "main players" of the world economy, determination of the potential of the protectionist policy of selective types of economic activity implementation in the conditions of post-war recovery.

China’s Foreign Policy Shift in South Asia vis-à-vis Belt and Road Initiative

China’s foreign policy shift in South Asia has been largely driven by its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which seeks to enhance connectivity and economic cooperation across Asia and beyond. South Asia, with its strategic location and growing economic potential, has emerged as a key area of focus for China under the B RI. In this context, China has pursued a multi-pronged approach, which includes infrastructure development, economic cooperation, and strategic partnerships with key countries in the region. One of the key components of China’s foreign policy shift in South Asia has been its emphasis on infrastructure development. China has invested heavily in the construction of roads, railways, ports, and other infrastructure projects in the region, with the aim of improving connectivity and facilitating trade and commerce. These investments have been largely made through the BRI framework, which has provided China with a platform to promote its economic and strategic interests in the region. China has also sought to deepen economic cooperation with South Asian countries through the BRI. This has involved the signing of a number of bilateral and regional trade agreements, as well as the establishment of special economic zones and industrial parks. Through these initiatives, China has sought to increase its access to South Asian markets and promote the growth of its own economy. In addition to these economic initiatives, China has also sought to establish strategic partnerships with key countries in the region. This has involved strengthening its ties with countries such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, which have strategic significance due to their location and their potential to provide China with access to key markets and resources. These partnerships have also involved cooperation in areas such as defense and security, with China seeking to establish a greater presence in the Indian Ocean region.