Foreign Policy Decision-making Process Research Articles

Comparative Foreign Policy Analysis (CFP) of Nigeria and South Africa: An overview

This article assesses the foreign policy roles of Nigeria and South Africa, given their status as regional powers, and the regional complexes within which they operate. Drawing references from a plethora of policies and speeches of the Presidents of the two States, this article argues that CFP, given its emphasis on foreign policy decision-making processes related to momentous events as well as its implication in day-to-day events, is useful as a theoretical framework in this assessment. Nigeria and South Africa are both active state actors in the international system. Unarguably, Nigeria and South Africa are two important nations in the continent of Africa whose foreign policy actions and inactions are crucial to the desire development of their areas of regional and global influence, particularly for the African continent. Methodologically, it employs the use of comparative analysis relying solely on secondary information for data generation and analysis of the direction of the foreign policy of Nigeria and South Africa. The article contributes to the literature by illustrating the potential impact and regional implications of foreign policy analysis as an approach to international relations (IR), within which the behavior of these two African States can be analyzed in the wake of new members into BRICS, African Union (AU) been made a permanent member of the G20, giving the continent an important voice on key global issues. Noting that the dynamic evolving role of South Africa and Nigeria in the global arena, should be expected to increase positioning Africa in decision making process of both regional and world politics; regional and global peace and security, such as in Ukraine crisis and reform within the United Nations security Council. Both countries need to unite their efforts and practical strategies to advance the common goal of Africa development, peace and security.

İran’ın Avrupa ile İlişkilerinde Şiilik Boyutu: Almanya-Fransa-İngiltere Örneği

The phenomenon of religion appears as a multidimensional element in terms of individual, society and state. It has effects on people individually as well as in the context of social and international relations. In terms of states, religion appears as a phenomenon that affects and determines the domestic and foreign policies of states. Especially in the 21st century, we see that religion has begun to affect international relations in various areas. Another area where International Relations has begun to establish relations in recent years has been religion. Especially when foreign policy decision-making processes are examined, it is seen that religious beliefs, religion-based organizations and non-governmental organizations are effective in the decision-making processes of state administrators. The issue of Islamic Sects, and Shi’ism in particular, has been a much-discussed phenomenon in recent years due to its global and regional effects. Along with the Persian perspective inherited from the Persian Empire, Shi'ism has significantly influenced and continues to influence the geopolitical and geocultural education of today's Iran. With its politicization, Shiism has become one of the factors that play an important role in the creation and preservation of Iran's national identity, perhaps the most important. In this context, Iranian Shiism, which creates a socio-cultural system different from other civilizations around it, has become the main determinant on the security and foreign policy of today's Iran by intertwining with Persian nationalism since the reign of Shah Ismail. Iran has influenced Shiite communities in various regions - the Middle East, Africa - Central Asia - through its Shiite proxies, or has worked to Shiite the promising masses in the political field. Iran also has an influence on Shiite Muslims in Europe. Its relationship with the Shiite communities here appears as an important element in Iran's relations with European countries in the context of foreign policy. Shiite activities in Germany are carried out through an association in Hamburg, where Iranian business people have been living for many years. The Islamic Center of Hamburg describes itself as the "case representative" of the Shiites in Europe, especially in Germany. The concentration of Shiites and organizations in Germany in a single center is entirely in line with Iran's aim of "uniting the Shiites of the world under its rule and spreading Shiism (the belief in velayat-e faqih) from a single center". Approximately 200,000 Shiites live in France. Ten associations and cultural centers, which have been identified as carrying out religious activities on the basis of Shiism, are active in the country on behalf of Iran. Shiites currently constitute 10% of the total number of Muslims in the UK. Persian community centers have been established in the UK since the 1980s. Iranian individuals have established associations in the UK in many fields such as trade, health, culture and religion. It is estimated that these associations aim to spread Shiism among Muslim communities in the UK. Iran is trying to be active in Europe through these groups and Shiism is an important element in its relations with Europe.

Iran’s foreign policy making: consensus building or power struggle?

ABSTRACT Who maintains authority over Iran’s foreign policy has long been the subject of debate. Ambiguous constitutional provisions, conflicting foreign policy patterns of different administrations, and their impact on multiple global and regional security concerns have intensified such discussion. Existing studies suggest Iran’s foreign policy is either made through institutional consensus or competition; or, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has been gradually monopolizing decision-making. This article seeks to identify ways in which the power hierarchy during the Rouhani presidency can be explained. It uses high-level diplomatic meetings as observable evidence in a novel analytical framework to identify the scope of competition and hierarchies in foreign policy decision-making processes. The statistical analysis of high-level diplomatic meetings estimates the changing degree of influence Khamenei holds over foreign policy making and confirms coordination amongst power centres that were often assumed to compete. As the article’s empirical results reveal, observable foreign policy agendas of Iranian key decision makers did not noticeably diverge, and their diplomatic activities were clearly coordinated.

Public Influence on US-Afghan Policy After 9/11 G. Almond’s Structural Functionalist Approach

The war in Afghanistan had been examined and analyzed through multiple theoretical frameworks, most of which belong to the field of international relations. However, this paper provides an explanation from a functionalist theoretical prism and employ Gabriel Almond’s structural functionalist approach in the field of political science, which is focused on political system and policy elaboration process within the system. In this manner, theory attempts to bring clarification to US foreign policy decision-making process on war in Afghanistan while underlining the US public influence. The paper aims to dissect Gabriel Almond’s theory through the political system and provide understanding how the integral components of the system interact with each other and how this interaction affects the results of foreign policy on US-Afghanistan example. According to the given research public mood had an important potential in affecting the US foreign policy decision-making process towards Afghanistan.

Scaling techniques the US strategy towards china 2017-2021 (case of Taiwan)

The article explains utility of scaling technique in science of international politics. The employment of the method is demonstrated via measuring US’ think tanks’ influence on America’s strategy towards the PRC (case of Taiwan) during the Trump presidency. The author discerns practical disadvantages of scaling in analyzing complex concept - foreign policy decision-making process. Think-tanks’ materials were utilized as the main object of the analysis. Recommendations skedded by experts were juxtaposed with actual actions concerning Chinese vector of US foreign policy during the Trump administration. The research also challenges conventional wisdom which postulated inconsistency as the dominant component of foreign policy decision-making during Trump’s presidency. While former POTUS’ personal approach, at times, caused discrepancies within the US strategy towards China, the pillars of this strategy were based on factual and long-term analysis conducted, in part, by think-tanks. It was of practical interest to suggest using the method more exposed to verification unlike traditional historical methodology or classical research methods in political studies. The article provides a brief analysis of one of the core issues within Sino-American relations - Taiwan. By discerning the US think-tanks’ recommendations and trailing down application of those in real policy framework gives us more detailed insight on think-tanks’ involvement in the decision-making process during the Trump administration.

The Transition of Israel’s Foreign Strategy in 1948-1977: An Analytical Framework of National Interest

Since the end of World War II, Israel has shifted its diplomatic strategy among several key partnerships. The initial Soviet-Israeli cooperation (1948-1954) gave way to the Franco-Israeli alliance (1956-1967), which eventually transitioned to the US-Israeli special relationship (1968-1977). This article uses multiple case studies to examine theoretical assumptions and intermediate mechanisms, drawing on existing international relations theories and national foreign policy decision-making processes. At the core of diplomatic strategy selection is national interest, and Israel's approach has oscillated between survival interests and political interests from 1948 to 1977. When Israel's survival is threatened, political interests and other considerations become secondary in diplomatic strategy. After ensuring survival interests, political interests become the primary focus of Israel's diplomatic strategy.

A Model of Foreign Policy Decision-Making Factors in the U.S. Congress

The paper is devoted to modeling the factors of foreign policy decision-making process in the US Congress. It is based on the analysis of data on Russia-related bills proposed in the period from 2010 to 2022. The factors influencing the likelihood of a bill's adoption were identified and organized into three large groups: institutional, procedural, and substantive. These factors were systematized and arranged into a conceptual model in the form of decision tree, structuring the process of foreign policy decision-making with respect to Russia. Using examples of sanctions bills from the 2010s, the discussion of sanctions bills demonstrates that the immediate topic of containing Russia is not sufficient for Congress; the passage of sanctions bills is only possible when there are conjunctive public, partisan, and private interests. The paper demonstrates how much Congress' foreign policy decisions are influenced by domestic political factors. It is assumed that this model will allow researchers to assess and predict the outcome of the discussion of the foreign policy agenda in Congress not only in relation to Russia, but also in relation to other countries.

A Q Methodology Analysis of Chinese Policy Makers' Perceptions of China's Foreign Policy Decision-Making Process concerning South Korea's THAAD Deployment

This paper explores the diverse ways Chinese policymakers view the foreign policy process in China. Two approaches characterize conventional accounts of the foreign policy decision-making process. One of these, based on Graham Allison's rational, organizational, and bureaucratic politics models, focuses on intragovernmental aspects of foreign policy decision-making processes, while the other highlights extra-governmental domestic and foreign factors. However, these approaches have neglected the question of who leads foreign policy and how state, society, and grassroots interact through coalition. We interviewed Chinese scholars and foreign policy experts using Q statements to explore China's foreign policy response to South Korea's deployment of THAAD. Our findings offer new theoretical insights into China's foreign policy process by identifying statedriven, grassroots-based, and state-society coalition models.

NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR SHAPING SRI LANKA’S FOREIGN POLICY

The Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka is taken as an example to describe the national interests, ends, means, and ways of the foreign policy analysis of the country. This analysis tries to identify the spectrums of foreign policy challenges currently faced by Sri Lanka today. The spectrum is based on national interests, national security, and the strategic environment (domestic and international) of Sri Lanka. The conceptual framework is based on Terry Deibel's strategic logic approach to the analysis of Sri Lanka's national strategy options. In the national interests, the means, and the ways of foreign policy that should be taken by Sri Lanka and assess how the above elements interact with each other in the foreign policy decision-making process. This paper further discusses external and internal actors, core issues, and strategic options available for Sri Lanka based on its, geostrategic location, national security, and national interest. Having understood that this paper discussed: National Strategy (Options) for shaping Sri Lanka’s Foreign Policy – Managing Domestic and International Challenges and Opportunities for the future.

Armenians in Turkish Foreign Policy In The Context of Their Effects On Foreign Policy Decision-Making Process

Devletlerin dış politika karar alma süreçlerini etkileyen çok sayıda faktör vardır. Bu faktörlerden bir tanesi de iç sosyo-politik yapıdır. Bu yapı içerisinde çok etnisiteli düzen, bu düzen içinde de etnik azınlık grupların etkisi çok büyüktür. Özellikle etnik grupların toplam nüfus içerisindeki oranı, bağımsızlık talebinde bulunup bulunmamaları, vatandaşı oldukları devletin demokratik gelişmişlik düzeyi ve bağımsızlık talebinde bulunan etnik azınlık grupların bağımsızlık yolunda kullandıkları araçlar, çok etnisiteli devletlerin dış politika karar alma süreçlerinde büyük önem arz etmektedir. Etnik azınlıkların karar alma süreçlerine etki yöntemleri kimi zaman demokratik olmayan yöntemleri de kapsar ki bunlardan bir tanesi de etnik temelli terör örgütlerinin varlığıdır. Etnik temelli terör örgütleri iç sosyo-politik yapının dış politika karar alma süreçlerine etkisinin görülmesi aşamasında önemli bir faktördür. Uluslararası sistemin ilgisinin kazanılması için terör örgütlerinin varlığı büyük önem arz etmektedir. Uluslararası aktörlerin de müdahil olması devletlerin iç-dış politikada karar ve karar alma süreçlerine önemli ölçüde tesir etmektedir, bu yüzden de etnik azınlıklar ve etnik temelli terör örgütlerinin varlığı devletlerin iç ve dış politik yönelimleri için etkin bir yönlendirme aracı olabilmektedir. Ermeni meselesi ve Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia (ASALA) örgütü de bu bağlamda Türk dış politikası karar alma süreçlerinde tarihten günümüze önemli etki doğuran aktör ve faktörlerden olmuştur.

Applicability of Grounded Theory Methodology in International Relations Studies

Abstract: Engaging the Grounded Theory Methodology (GTM) in International Relation (IR) studies can be a challenging choice for researchers and Ph.D. students. Considering that scholars in the IR field are familiar with certain traditional methodologies, the notion of importing a relatively unique approach such as the GTM can attract strong ontological and epistemological questions. In this article, I contend that pragmatist and constructivist versions of GTM can be a successful research methodology in IR qualitative research. Such choice, however, is constrained by a set of conditions. Guided by existing literature, these conditions were identified and discussed in the context of IR qualitative research norms and then applied in Foreign Policy (FP) decision-making process, a well-known approach in studying FP as a subdiscipline in IR. The article concludes that despite certain limitations, the methodology can be an outstanding option for IR qualitative research.

The “Russian Factor” in Bulgarian Foreign Policy in the Years of Post-Communist Transition

This article seeks to give counterarguments against the claims of some political scientists that Moscow continued to exercise control over the foreign-policy decision-making process in Bulgaria even after the country left the Soviet sphere of influence in the early 1990s. To this end, the term Russian factor is used in the light of Bulgaria’s post-Communist “distancing” from the Russian Federation and its integration into the Euro-Atlantic community. Dwelling on some examples taken from the diplomatic practice of Sofia–Moscow bilateral relations, the author has tried to prove that soon after the end of the Cold War, the “Russian dominance” gave way to the much more attractive idea of Bulgaria’s pro-Western spatial reorientation.

Military Veterans of the War on Terror

The number of US military veterans of the War on Terror (WoT) who were elected to Congress increased to its highest level ever in 2021. This trend reflects broader changes in the makeup of Congress, which now includes more gender, racial, ethnic, and religious diversity than ever before. This article bridges the literatures on socialization and civil-military relations with foreign-policy analyses of advocacy and entrepreneurship to study WoT veterans in Congress. This cohort of veterans represents a new generation with distinctive experiences that generally include more exposure to combat, more redeployments, and more post-traumatic stress diagnoses than previous generations of soldiers. Specifically, this study examines links between WoT veterans’ experiences and their adoption of creative strategies to achieve defense and foreign-policy objectives such as maintaining US commitments to operations in Syria and Afghanistan. Looking beyond roll-call voting with a multidimensional and diversified model of veteran legislative advocacy can enrich our understanding of today’s complex foreign-policy decision-making processes.

The Strategic Implications of India's Illiberalism and Democratic Erosion

executive summary: This article assesses the international implications of illiberalism and democratic erosion in India's domestic politics and considers whether and how Washington should recalibrate its strategic partnership with New Delhi. main argument The U.S.-India relationship is founded on common interests, including a deepening strategic convergence with respect to China. U.S. policymakers also cite a shared commitment to liberal democratic governance as a central reason for closer alignment with India. Yet India's prevailing political culture is not best defined as "liberal," and under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India's commitment to democracy is increasingly in doubt. Erosion is most obvious in the areas of tightened media controls, limits on civil society organizations, and reduced protections for minorities. The evolving character of India's domestic politics is likely to influence India's foreign policy aims and decision-making processes, hard-power capabilities, and the way India relates to other states, including the U.S. policy implications • The U.S.-India strategic partnership is strong and likely to remain durable because of shared concerns about China's power and influence. Yet because India's domestic political culture and international worldview reflect unique historical, ideological, and cultural wellsprings, U.S. policymakers should not assume U.S.-India convergence on liberal aims, including India's commitment to the defense of the liberal international order. • Rhetorically, the Biden administration has attached great significance to liberal democracy and thus risks politically costly criticism if it appears to ignore undemocratic trends in India. To avoid hypocrisy and, most importantly, to set realistic expectations for U.S.-India partnership, U.S. officials should convey their concerns about India's political trajectory forthrightly but bearing in mind that the U.S. has little influence over India's internal politics. • Further erosion of democratic institutions and practices would, on balance, make India a less powerful and predictable international actor, and would reduce its capacity for reassurance and building partnerships with other states, including the U.S. • The U.S. government should monitor political developments in India. If democratic erosion worsens, managing U.S. relations with India will demand a tricky balancing act that preserves and even strengthens partnership in areas deemed critical to geopolitical competition with China without extending U.S.-India cooperation into areas that would mistake India for an entirely like-minded U.S. treaty ally.

Examining Indonesian Government Strategies in the Aviation Sector Post Covid-19 Pandemic

Aviation is an inseparable part of transportation in any country. The aviation sector is one of the sectors most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Indirectly, the spread of the Covid-19 virus can occur in airlines, which are the fast transportation options for passengers. Indonesia has taken a policy to stop its aviation sector from reducing the spread of the Covid-19 virus and prioritize the health of its citizens. The drastically reduced flight frequency without clarity of time impacts many losses to the aviation industry. The Indonesian government plans a gradual recovery effort in the aviation sector through domestic flights. However, there are concerns from the Indonesian people, as airline passengers who will be traveling, regarding their health safety on flights during the large-scale social distancing period during the Covid-19 pandemic. Therefore, this study will discuss the strategies of the Indonesian government in the aviation sector after the Covid-19 pandemic to still prioritize the health of its citizens. This study uses the theory of the foreign policy decision-making process. The method used in this study is a qualitative based research method. This study concludes that the strategies taken by the Indonesian government include reducing 50% of passenger capacity to enforce safe distances, sanitizing aircraft, and for prospective passengers to be required to show a certificate of negative Covid-19 results through a PCR swab test or GeNose C19.

THE ROLE OF INTELLIGENCE SERVICES IN AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY. CASE STUDY: THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN (1979-1989)

This paper aims to present the role of intelligence services in the American foreign policy using as a case study the Afghan conflict from 1979-1989. Thus, this paper underlines the actions (or inactions) of the American intelligence services, highlighting their limitations from this period. It is important to describe the context that contributed to the start of the soviet invasion in Afghanistan and the two perspectives (American and Soviet) over the conflict. In this regard, we considered necessary an analysis on the Soviet point of view regarding the conflict and, most importantly, concerning the American involvement, having in mind the purpose of objectiveness while presenting the context and events. Using the relevant documents, testimonies and statements of former CIA officials from that period, the paper underlines the way foreign policy decisions were taken by the Administrations from Washington, during the Soviet-Afghan war, and how American intelligence services influenced the foreign policy decision-making process and the evolution of the conflict.

Re-Evaluating South African Foreign Policy Decision-Making: Archives, Architects and the Promise of Another Wave

ABSTRACT Research on South Africa’s post-apartheid foreign policy decision-making has stagnated. For more than a quarter century analysts have generally drawn on secondary material from other scholars, newspaper reporting, and the speeches of government officials to elucidate how South Africa crafts and carries out its foreign policy. The accessibility of previously classified archival documents and the availability of policy makers for research interviews holds the potential to advance scholarship on South African foreign policy along two fronts. First, these primary sources offer insight into foreign policy decision-making processes. And second, they encourage a critical re-evaluation of many of the traditional understandings and tropes that have dominated the study of South African foreign policy. This paper outlines the state of foreign policy studies in South Africa and then demonstrates the power of primary research to alter key ideas about the conduct and content of South African foreign policy through three case studies.

To Negotiate or Not-to Negotiate with the FDLR Rebels? President Kikwete and Tanzania’s Foreign Policy towards Rwanda (2013–2015)

Abstract This article challenges traditional approaches to inter-state relations and reinforces the actor-specific nature of foreign policy analysis. Using individual decision-making theory based on the personalities of key political actors, this article proposes a case study on the foreign policy decision outcome by Tanzania’s President Jakaya Kikwete, in response to the 2013 diplomatic row with Rwanda. Tanzania’s relations with Rwanda have historically been cordial. However, President Kikwete’s proposal for Rwanda to negotiate with the rebel group Forces Démocratiques pour la Libération du Rwanda (FDLR) at the African Union Summit in Addis Ababa in 2013 was not well received by Rwanda. The FDLR is a Hutu rebel outfit based in Eastern DRC, consisting of surviving Hutus who had fled into DRC, after the 1994 genocide. This article argues that in view of the diplomatic row that ensued, Kikwete’s response supports current theories on the role played by a key political actor’s personality in the foreign policy decision-making process.

Who decides foreign policy? The role of national trauma in shaping the influence of public opinion in South Korea

ABSTRACT The relative importance of public opinion in shaping foreign policy is a central area of research in international relations and public policy. This article aims to show how public opinion has influenced South Korea’s foreign-policy decision-making process and explores unique aspects of the Korean foreign policy. To this end, the article argues that the THAAD deployment and the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) are examples of foreign policies that were influenced by the traumatic memory of historical events, focusing on four variables: stage of the policy process, strength of the opposition, an imminent sense of threat, and the impact of national trauma. The theoretical framework presented in this study will contribute to a more analytical understanding of the relationship between public opinion and foreign policy in many states.

Foreign Policy Decision-Making Process on the Example of Psychological Characters of U.S. Presidents

Formation of the internal politics is a difficult process. Its key element consists of the formulation and adoption of foreign policy decisions, and their character depends on many factors. These include geographical position of the country, existence of military and economic power, cultural, historical traditions, as well as the type of the political system, social structure of the society, and individual features of political leaders.Acceptation of foreign policy decisions may reflect critically not only on the country where it was accepted, but on the fate of humanity as well. It became more evident after the Cuban crisis in the year of 1962, when Soviet strategic missiles were placed in Cuba, and USA replied by blockading the island. At the time, decisions of both American or Soviet leaders on the nuclear attack could lead to an irreparable mistake. Along with increased awareness about the process, the acceptation of foreign policy decisions, especially in the situation of conflict and crisis, became one of the most important topics of scientific research.At present, several scientific directions and schools have been created, which are working on the problems of decision-making and findings the ways for the process optimization. These types of schools and directions are “overlapping,” thus it is difficult to classify those one by one. In such situation, consideration of the directions, which would be more interesting for researchers, looks as more justified.Keywods: Political Psychology, Decision-making, Psychoanalysis, behaviorism, cognitivism, US Presidents