A Model of Foreign Policy Decision-Making Factors in the U.S. Congress

Abstract

The paper is devoted to modeling the factors of foreign policy decision-making process in the US Congress. It is based on the analysis of data on Russia-related bills proposed in the period from 2010 to 2022. The factors influencing the likelihood of a bill's adoption were identified and organized into three large groups: institutional, procedural, and substantive. These factors were systematized and arranged into a conceptual model in the form of decision tree, structuring the process of foreign policy decision-making with respect to Russia. Using examples of sanctions bills from the 2010s, the discussion of sanctions bills demonstrates that the immediate topic of containing Russia is not sufficient for Congress; the passage of sanctions bills is only possible when there are conjunctive public, partisan, and private interests. The paper demonstrates how much Congress' foreign policy decisions are influenced by domestic political factors. It is assumed that this model will allow researchers to assess and predict the outcome of the discussion of the foreign policy agenda in Congress not only in relation to Russia, but also in relation to other countries.