Food Sufficiency Research Articles

Food sufficiency status and sleep outcomes in older adults: the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS)

BackgroundStudies investigating the relationship between food insecurity and sleep among older populations are limited. This study aimed to cross-sectionally examine the associations between food sufficiency status and sleep outcomes in a nationally representative sample of older adults.MethodsOur study included 1,665 older adults (≥ 65 years), using data from the 2013 and 2014 National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS). Food insufficiency was determined via participants’ experience and utilization of food assistance programs (FAP). Sleep outcomes, including nighttime and total sleep hours, sleep latency, and sleep quality, were derived from self-reported data. Multivariable linear regression and logistic regression models were used to estimate the associations between food sufficiency status and sleep outcomes.ResultsIn 2013–2014, 86.1% of older adults were classified as food sufficient without FAP, 9.85% as food sufficient with FAP, and 4.08% as food insufficient. Adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, food sufficient older adults with FAP reported more total sleep hours (\U0001d6fd = 0.31, 95% CI: -0.02, 0.64) than those participants who are food sufficient without FAP. Further adjusting for health factors, food sufficient participants with FAP had more nighttime sleep hours and greater total sleep hours compared to those participants food sufficient without FAP. Compared to those deemed as food sufficient without FAP, food sufficient participants with FAP had lower odds of having longer sleep latency (OR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.89), after further adjusting for physical function performance.ConclusionsAmong older adults, food sufficiency with FAP is associated with greater total sleep hours, greater nighttime sleep hours, and lower odds of longer sleep latency. Our findings may help inform nutrition food assistance programs targeting older populations.

Declining Rural Population in Nigeria: Implication for Food Security

This study is geared towards investigating the influence of rural population growth on food production in Nigeria from 1961 to 2018. The data was analyzed using the Johhansen cointegration test, ordinary least squares (OLS), dynamic (OLS), and fully modified OLS. The findings portrayed that a long-term link exists between food production and rural population growth in Nigeria. From the dynamic OLS, which is the lead model, it was observed that the influence of rural populations on food production has been negative and significant. This negative effect is linked to the continuous rural-urban migration that has left agriculture in the hands of the elderly. To curb this, the paper suggested that by making agriculture attractive through aggressive mechanization and the provision of inputs, the rural population will be able to accelerate food production and ensure food sufficiency in the country.

Realization of the potential of diversification of agricultural business to reduce the risks of sustainable development

The deepening of the global problems of human development requires new approaches to solving the strategic tasks of further existence. With this approach, under modern conditions, the concept of sustainable development appears, with the help of which it is possible to ensure the achievement of the goals of sustainable development of national economies and society. Agriculture is the primary sector of Ukraine's national economy, and the state of development largely determines the economic growth rate. In recent years, many problematic issues have accumulated in the agricultural sector, which requires intensifying the diversification processes of economic activity. The article identifies the principal risks and problems that can be solved based on directions for expanding the diversification of agrarian business, among them optimizing the sectoral balance, increasing the rationality and environmental friendliness of the use of natural resources, restoring biodiversity, reviving the human resources potential of rural areas and mitigating the consequences of inclusive gaps between rural and urban areas of the country. The composition of the potential for diversification of economic activity of agrarian business entities based on sustainable development is substantiated. Among the main elements proposed are food security, climate neutrality and preservation of biological resources, inclusiveness of development of rural areas, and economic opportunities. The analysis of the production structure of agriculture showed the dominance of crop production and a decrease in the share of livestock production. Based on the results of the conducted research, it is proposed to consider the diversification of agrarian business as a way of restoring and ensuring the biodiversity of crops and animals, which is based on the principles of rational use of bioresource agricultural potential to achieve the goals of sustainable development of agriculture and rural areas. The fundamental principles of diversification of economic activities of agricultural enterprises based on sustainable development were defined as eco-tolerance of agricultural production, food sufficiency, inclusiveness, achievement of sectoral balance of agricultural production, efficiency, improvement of the level of well-being and quality of the country's population. Keywords: diversification, agriculture, rural areas, development, opportunities.

Agriculture land use transformation: A threat to sustainable food production systems, rural food security, and farmer well-being?

The acquisition of agricultural land is a crucial aspect of survival for numerous rural communities, serving as a fundamental tool for combating poverty and food insecurity and promoting equitable sustainable economic progress. The expropriation of land offers a promising prospect for remedying past inequities and promoting both economic progress and food sufficiency. Limited research has examined the association between land expropriation and food security, livelihood shocks, and the well-being of rural households worldwide. Therefore, this research explores the implications of land expropriation on food security, livelihood shocks, and well-being of land lost rural communities. The data were collected from 384 farmers selected through stratified sampling techniques using face-to-face surveys in rural China. The data were analyzed using descriptive and logit regression models. The descriptive findings showed that land expropriation has detrimental effects on the livelihood, food security, and well-being of the farmers. Furthermore, these impacts are more harmful among land-expropriated households with a lower educational level, a large family size, and women farmers in less developed rural communities. The econometric results evinced that gender, age, education level, marital status, family size, and negative changes in income all significantly affect the impact of land expropriation on the food security of farmers. Similarly, the findings revealed that farmers with lower education levels were more likely to be affected by land loss as compared to farmers with medium and high education levels. Farmers with complete land loss were 1.70 times more likely to suffer livelihood shocks than those with partial land loss. The results also evinced that the well-being of all farmers was not affected equally, and some farmers' well-being was affected more than others due to various socioeconomic backgrounds. Therefore, this study suggests the implementation of public policies that provide support to farmers who have been marginalized due to land acquisition.

The parallels of food self-sufficiency and hunger in light of sustainable agriculture: A case of the BRICS countries

This paper critically examines the trajectory of agricultural development in the BRICS countries post-1947, particularly focusing on the epochal impact of the Green Revolution and its associated disruptions. By delving into the transformation of the agriculture of the BRICS countries, this study explores the ramifications of food sufficiency, sustainable agricultural practices, and the persistent issue of hunger within the countries. The analysis encompasses an evaluation of the Green Revolution's multifaceted effects on agricultural productivity, socio-economic dynamics, and environmental sustainability. In recent years, the international status of agriculture in the BRICS countries has been constantly improving. In 2022, the gross agricultural production of the BRICS countries accounted for more than 50% of the global volume. Further strengthening of the developing cooperation among the BRICS countries is of great importance for ensuring global food security. The researchers examined the agricultural sector of the BRICS countries and also identified the main problems characteristic of the agricultural sector of these countries. The solution to the complex of agricultural problems of the BRICS countries became possible thanks to the Green Revolution, which, however, had a negative impact on the environmental situation. It is hypothesized that sustainable agriculture and food sufficiency can reduce the negative impact on the environment but are not able to solve the problem of hunger shortly. The ranking of some BRICS countries in the Global Hunger Index is worrying, and cross-integration and national programs will only work if there is integration between sustainable agriculture, food sufficiency, and distribution.

THE IMPACT OF HUMANITARIAN AID ON HOUSEHOLD RESILIENCE IN CONFLICT-AFFECTED REGIONS: A CASE STUDY FROM KAJO-KEJI COUNTY, SOUTH SUDAN

This research sought to assess how humanitarian assistance affects the resilience of families in Kajo-Keji County, Central Equatoria State, in South Sudan. Utilizing a comprehensive approach that combined surveys, interviews, group discussions, and the analysis of documents, the study gathered numerical and descriptive data from various households. The initiative was driven by the urgent need to comprehend the influence of aid from different organizations and the government on life dimensions such as health, cleanliness, food sufficiency, and the availability of essential services. Results indicated that humanitarian efforts substantially boosted areas like agricultural output, health care, cleanliness, economic conditions, and the cooperation between the government and aid groups, leading to a community better equipped to face, adjust to, and recover from challenging situations. Thus, the research highlights the critical role of sustained and precise humanitarian support, particularly underlining the significance of improving access to small-scale financial services to invigorate local economies and bolster resilience. The findings offer important perspectives for decision-makers, aid groups, and other parties engaged in aid provision, suggesting approaches that meet immediate necessities while also fortifying the fundamental elements of household resilience for lasting growth.

Women, Agriculture and Socio-Economic Development of Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria (2010-2023)

The article examined the nexus between women’s activities in agriculture and the socio-economic development of Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. Notwithstanding the proportion of women that engage in agriculture, the gender gap has impaired women from having praise and accolades and the fact that food sufficiency and security are farfetched. Both the survey method where a total of 475 women were given questionnaires to respond to, and the historical/descriptive methods were used in eliciting data for the paper. The theory adopted for analysis was the 1953 dualism theory proposed by Julius Herman Bocke of the modernization school. Amongst others, the paper revealed the importance of agriculture to society, the contribution of women to socio-economic development in the areas of employment generation, income and revenues to individual households and governments, the provision of a platform for processing and marketing of agricultural products, and raw materials for industries. However, several challenges such as the gender gap, challenges of access to land, funding, inadequate agricultural infrastructure and productive resources constrain the activities of women in agriculture. Arising from the findings, the paper recommended: a review of land policy to give women more access to land, increase in budgetary allocation and release for agricultural activities, increase investment in R & D and enlightenment of the agro-preneurs through regular information dissemination.

Farmers’ Satisfaction towards the Agriculture Insurance: A Case of Chitwan and Kaski Districts of Nepal

Purpose: Subsidy based agriculture insurance schemes is flagship insurance program of Nepal which was started in Nepal one decade before. This paper aims to identify the factors influencing the satisfaction of agriculture insurance policyholders.
 Design/Methodology/Approach: Primary data were collected in Bharatpur and Pokhara metropolis of Nepal using structured questionnaire among 400 agriculture insurance policyholders who have already received claims or whose claim was in settlement process or whose claim was rejected by the insurer. Sample was selected using purposive and cluster sampling methods. Data were analysed through Mean, ANOVA, Wilk's Lamda and MANOVA tools.
 Findings: Age, landholding size, self-reported perception of insurance companies' service quality, and agriculture insurance types are insignificant while location of respondents, education level, food sufficiency of family, size of the farming, and respondents' assets are significant factors for policyholders' satisfaction towards the agriculture insurance. Timely settlement of claims increases the level of satisfaction. Nepal Insurance Authority and the Ministry of Agriculture Development need to review the existing directives to improve the agriculture insurance program. Insurance companies are suggested to offer prompt and quality services to policyholders and carry out educational campaign to increase customer awareness.
 Originality/Value: The study identified pertinent variables significant and indifference to farmers' satisfaction towards agriculture insurance. It also digs out the role of financial and nonfinancial aspects of insurance services. The study opens the door for further research on similar issues to enhance the existing body of knowledge.
 Implications: The demand for agriculture insurance is not increased significantly even large amount of subsidy in premium was provided. Present study may be useful to insurance companies, agents, regulators, the Ministry of Agriculture Development, researchers, and practitioners. The study can be used as a reference by managers of insurers to formulate the future strategies to enhance the agriculture insurance market.

Estimating the Impact of Adaptive Capacity on Vulnerability in Nepal

The adaptive capacity of households is an effective instrument for minimizing climate change-induced vulnerability. Varying adaptive capacity across different income and socio-strata of households make different vulnerability impacts. This paper assesses the impacts of adaptation capacity on household susceptibility index and ranks in Nepal employing an explorative method. In the explorative method, the household vulnerability index as a composite index and multiple regression model are analytical methods. The data set is collected from the questionnaire survey of 642 households in the Sotkhola Water Basin Gadhi, Lekhagaon, and Kunathari through a regression model. As a result, a flood disaster is terrible more than a landslide. By cluster, its intensity is deeper in Gadhi than in Kunathari and Lekhagaon in terms of destruction of assets and non-assets. Total income loss magnifies household vulnerability 7 times deeper. The distribution of vulnerability level falls to poor households three times more than rich households in accordance with headcount poverty and food sufficiency poverty measures. The composite index shows adaptive capacity plays a key role in household vulnerability. Therefore, adaptive capacity is an instrument of resilience to household safety and welfare. In the context of poverty alleviation, preparedness, and climate change initiatives, this result will be valuable to improve the adaptive capacity of the socioeconomically vulnerable population for disaster and climate resilience, further development, and future disaster risk management policy implications.

Environmental justice and human well-being bundles in protected areas: An assessment in Campo Ma'an landscape, Cameroon

Justice and human well-being are increasingly used as key considerations when assessing the socio-economic impacts and trade-offs associated with forest conservation on local and indigenous populations. This paper incorporates environmental justice framework and human well-being bundles to get a more comprehensive understanding of the social-economic impacts of forest conservation. Through household surveys, focus group discussions, and in-depth interviews in three villages adjacent to the Campo Ma'an National Park (CMNP) in Cameroon, we examine how the creation of the national park amidst expanding large-scale commodity plantations affects perceptions of well-being bundles and justice among local and indigenous communities. Specifically, we look at how the establishment of CMNP influences forest-dependent people's freedom to access forest resources, food sufficiency, health, security, social relationships, life satisfaction, and perception of fairness in benefit distribution, participation and recognition. The results reveal a concerning state of relatively low well-being evaluation and diminished perception of justice among local populations which, we argue, lead to a deterioration of overall capabilities among local and indigenous communities. The lack of sense of justice was associated with the loss of freedom in accessing common resources, hindered cultural-spiritual practices, lack of compensation, and unresolved human-wildlife conflicts. Comparative analysis reveals variations in well-being bundles among the three communities, influenced by various factors such as the different histories of displacement and law enforcement, ethnicity, level of dependence towards forest resources, external NGO support, and the expansion of extractive industries in the area. Reflecting on these findings, this study offers insights into how justice and human well-being can be more integrated into the process of co-constructing and re-imagining future interventions aimed at improving the quality of life of local communities and promoting sustainability goals in Cameroon and beyond.

Climate Smart Agriculture Practices in India

According to the World Bank, Climate-smart agriculture encompasses the comprehensive management of landscapes, including land under cultivation, livestock, woodland areas, and aquatic resources, addressing the interconnected issues of food security and climate change. United Nations Population Fund or UNFPAs Population dashboard shows India’s population at 1406.6 million with an annual average rate of population increase at 0.9% from 2020-25. To meet this food demand, it is imperative for India to adapt sustainable agricultural practices. The IPCC (Inter-governmental panel on climate change) report has pointed out that climate change has affected food security due to global warming and extremes of temperatures around the World. In light of these facts, India faces the unique challenge of developing a path of enhancing the country’s food supply, ensuring water availability while minimizing agricultural GHGs (Greenhouse emissions) which are estimated to be 14% of its total GHG emissions. In the 2021 Global Climate Risk Index (CRI), India was ranked 7th, with a CRI score of 16.67. This paper aims at understanding the theoretical and conceptual framework of climate smart agriculture and presents an insight into how the objectives of food sufficiency, change in climatic conditions and greenhouse gas emissions are being met in India through policies, institutions and financial models.

Historical shifting in grain mineral density of landmark rice and wheat cultivars released over the past 50 years in India

The ‘Green Revolution (GR)’ has been successful in meeting food sufficiency in India, but compromising its nutritional security. In a first, we report altered grain nutrients profile of modern-bred rice and wheat cultivars diminishing their mineral dietary significance to the Indian population. To substantiate, we evaluated grain nutrients profile of historical landmark high-yielding cultivars of rice and wheat released in succeeding decades since the GR and its impacts on mineral diet quality and human health, with a prediction for decades ahead. Analysis of grain nutrients profile shows a downward trend in concentrations of essential and beneficial elements, but an upward in toxic elements in past 50 y in both rice and wheat. For example, zinc (Zn) and iron (Fe) concentration in grains of rice decreased by ~ 33.0 (P < 0.001) and 27.0% (P < 0.0001); while for wheat it decreased by ~ 30.0 (P < 0.0001) and 19.0% (P < 0.0001) in past more than 50 y, respectively. A proposed mineral-diet quality index (M-DQI) significantly (P < 0.0001) decreased ~ 57.0 and 36.0% in the reported time span (1960–2010) in rice and wheat, respectively. The impoverished M-DQI could impose hostile effects on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) like iron-deficiency anemia, respiratory, cardiovascular, and musculoskeletal among the Indian population by 2040. Our research calls for an urgency of grain nutrients profiling before releasing a cultivar of staples like rice and wheat in the future.

Planting for food and jobs in post-COVID era: identifying the missing gaps for sustainable food production – a review

Agriculture is the backbone of the Ghanaian economy and serve as a source of employment, income generation and poverty reduction for many people in the agricultural value chain. Agriculture over the years has contributed significantly to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) until recently when the performance of the sector and the contribution to GDP began to dwindled. With the current economic challenges after COVID-19, high fuel costs and ravaging food prices, every effort should be put in place to increase food production to reduce food importation which put pressure on the local currency and drives food prices high. The introduction of the Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) policy was to boost agricultural productivity, eliminate hunger, reduce poverty, achieve food sufficiency and reduce unemployment. The policy is also to helps achieve the Sustainable Development Goal 1- No Poverty and Goal 2 - Zero hunger especially in this post-COVID era. This paper was carried out by reviewing policy documents, articles and interacting with certain stakeholders on the Planting for Food and Jobs initiative. The PFJ policy hinges on five pillars namely: improved seeds, fertilizer supply, dedicated extension services; market, and e-agriculture. However, the policy is flawed with many challenges. The review showed that the policy lacks clear direction as regards its implementation. Key implementation features such as provision of irrigation facilities, introduction of mechanization services, dedicated market for farmers’ produce and land tenure systems among others were major issues. It was also observed that there were poor monitoring and evaluation, corrupt practices such as the diversion of improved seeds and fertilizers, high cost of farm inputs and lack of sustainability plan as in the case of previous interventions. This article will, therefore, help policymakers and the government to review and focus on key areas of the policy that will improve food production, create jobs, ensure food security and transform the general economy.

A Framework for Blockchain and Internet of Things Integration in Improving Food Security in the Food Supply Chain

Food security, as defined by the United Nations' Committee on World Food Security, means that “all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their food preferences and dietary needs for an active and healthy life”. Food security is not just ensuring food sufficiency, but also ensuring the quality and the reliability of supply chains which have become more complex with diversified sources of farm productions. Some common issues in food supply chains are lacking efficient traceability of product origins and distributions. Blockchain is an emerging technology for the agricultural supply chain which could monitor food quality and safety by digitally tracking data and processes of material resources. Meanwhile, the Internet of Things (IoT) system is used for diagnosis and control in smart agriculture such as crop growth observation that can produce good quality and sustainable farm production. This work proposes a framework of the integration of blockchain with IoT to improve the reliability of food supply chain (FSC) by focusing on optimizing the consensus algorithm of blockchain. The expected outcome is to produce an efficient traceability and higher quality transactions which can integrate all procedures and dealings in real-time processes across the FSC.

Perception of violence and food security in Emohua Local Government Area of Rivers State, Nigeria

Purpose: This study examined perceptions of violence and food security in the Emohua Local Government Area. Research methodology: A descriptive research design was used. The study population was 862,690, of which a sample size of 400 was obtained using Taro Yamane. A self-designed 37 item questionnaire was used to collect data from the respondents. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics (mean scores and standard deviations). Results: The findings show that loss of life and property, prevalence of stunting growth, underweight and low life expectancy, destruction of farmland, high economic burden on the state economy, malnutrition, reduction of farming activities and low food production index, effects on both physical and mental health, stunted educational development, psychological trauma, underdevelopment, high risk of diseases, reduction in reproductive rate, increase in prices of foodstuffs, and migration are the relationships between violence conflict and food insecurity. Limitations: Biased while filling the questionnaires and lack of freedom of information in the area. Contribution: There could be no food sufficiency with violent conflict in an area.

Utilisation of green urban space for food sufficiency and the realisation of the sustainable development goals – UK stakeholders perspective

The exponential growth of food demand due to the increasing global population has the potential to seriously threaten the quality and quantity of food supplies due to climate change. This study explores the utilisation of green urban spaces for achieving food self-sufficiency by investigating the extent to which sustainable urban farms could be used to reduce the consumption of imported produce in the UK. It also examines urban farming stakeholders’ perspective on how food self-sufficiency can help realise the SDGs especially SDG 2 (Zero hunger) and SDG 13 (Climate action). The study adopts a mixed method approach through a survey with 115 respondents and semi-structured interviews conducted with 12 respondents from 4 different urban farming stakeholder groups. The findings of this study presented a strong correlation between stakeholders who had concerns about where their food came from and the carbon footprint of imported produce. The research shows that, urban farms will no doubt play a vital role in the future of food security in our cities/communities and that the SDGs could be realised through sustainable urban farms implemented within the relevant planning regulations/policies.

Conservation Agriculture for Sustainable Crop Productivity and Economic Return for the Smallholders of Bangladesh: A Systematic Review

Agricultural farming is a complicated system that involves continuous interactions among its multiple components over a period of time. The series of activities involved in farming practices have enormous contributions to ensure food security for the humanity. With the passage of time, agriculture sector faces diversified challenges like high food demand of rapidly growing population, scarcity of available resources and adverse effect of climate change. In developing countries like Bangladesh, food sufficiency is mostly achieved through intensive farming which has detrimental effects on natural resources, surrounding environment, and the whole ecosystem. The review attempts to discover the potentials of conservation agriculture practices for sustainable crop productivity and economic profitability of smallholder farmers in Bangladesh. This study revealed that conservation farm management practice is a cost-effective modernized technique that has the ability to accelerate crop productivity and farmers income through minimum utilization of agricultural inputs. Although the concept of conservation agriculture is widely practiced in other parts of the world, Bangladesh is experiencing a slow rate of adoption during the last few years. The policy implication of the study suggests that the government should take coordinated and combined initiatives involving both public and private sector organizations to incorporate this concept into the mainstream agricultural system of Bangladesh.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Online Purchasing Pilot’s impact on food insufficiency

Mandated under the 2014 Farm Bill, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) Online Purchasing Pilot (OPP) was initially intended to test the feasibility of allowing online SNAP benefit redemption for groceries. In early 2020, the OPP was rapidly expanded to address pandemic-induced barriers to food access among SNAP households in the United States. Using data from the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey and a difference-in-difference framework (that exploits state variation in OPP implementation), we examine the effects of the rapid initial expansion of OPP on food sufficiency among low-income families. Results obtained indicate the OPP decreased food insufficiency among low-income adults by 2 percentage points (an 8 percent decrease relative to mean food insufficiency). Additional analyses suggest online benefit redemption improved food sufficiency by mitigating food access barriers, especially affecting racial minorities and married individuals. Given the unprecedented food access barriers during the rollout period, future research should consider the effect of online benefit redemption in subsequent years on food hardship and accessibility.

Pattern Recognition of Food Security in Indonesia Using Biclustering Plaid Model

Biclustering come in various algorithms, selecting the most suitable biclustering algorithm can be a challenging task. The performance of algorithms can vary significantly depending on the specific data characteristics. The Plaid model is one of popular biclustering algorithms, has gained recognition for its efficiency and versatility across various applications, including food security. Indonesia deals with complex food security challenges. The nation's unique geographic and socioeconomic diversity demands region-specific food security solutions. Identifying province-specific food security patterns is crucial for effective policymaking and resource allocation, ultimately promoting food sufficiency and stability at the regional level. This study assesses the performance of the Plaid model in identifying food security patterns at the provincial level in Indonesia. To optimize biclusters, we explore various parameter tuning scenarios (the choice of model, the number of layers, and the threshold value for row and column releases). The selection criteria are based on the change ratio of the initial matrix's mean square residue to the mean square residue of the Plaid model, the average mean square residue, and the number of biclusters. The constant column model was selected with a mean square residue change ratio of 0.52, an average mean square plaid model residue of 4.81, and it generates 6 overlapping biclusters. The results show each bicluster has unique characteristics. Notably, Bicluster 1 that consist of 2 provinces, exhibits the lowest food security levels, marked by variables X1, X2, X4, and X7. Furthermore, the variables X1, X4, and X7 consistently appear across several biclusters. This highlights the importance of prioritizing these three variables to improve the food security status of the regions.

FORECASTING QUARTERLY RICE AND CORN PRODUCTION IN THE PHILIPPINES: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF SEASONAL ARIMA AND HOLT-WINTERS MODELS

Rice and corn are essential crops for the Philippines, playing a critical role in the nation’s economy and food security. However, the agricultural sector faces challenges, including climate variability, land constraints, and the need for imports to meet growing demand. Accurate forecasting of rice and corn production is crucial for informed decision-making and resource allocation. This research applied Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing models to forecast rice and corn production. The study used quarterly production data from 1987 to 2023 obtained from the Philippine Statistics Authority. The Holt-Winters model with additive seasonality outperformed the SARIMA model for both rice and corn production, achieving lower Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values. The findings have significant implications for policymakers, agricultural stakeholders, and commodity traders, guiding them in making informed decisions regarding import requirements. The volatility of global food prices and exchange rates can significantly impact the cost of imports, putting a strain on the country’s financial resources. Accurate forecasting models are essential for ensuring food sufficiency and making informed decisions on the amount of imports required. By adopting the Holt-Winters model and continuously improving forecasting methodologies, the Philippines can enhance food sufficiency and promote rural economic growth. The study highlighted the importance of accurate forecasting models in ensuring stable and sufficient rice and corn supplies to meet the nation’s growing demands, contributing to sustainable agricultural development and food security. Continuous research in agricultural forecasting methodologies is necessary to address the challenges posed by evolving agricultural dynamics and further enhance predictive accuracy.