Food-energy-water Systems Research Articles

Mapping the Nexus: A County-Level Analysis and Visualization of Iowa’s Food–Energy–Water Systems

This study presents a county-level analysis and visual assessment of Iowa’s Food–Energy–Water systems (IFEWs), focusing on the interdependencies of agricultural practices, nitrogen management, and energy production. We use data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service and other sources to assess cropland-nitrogen sources, animal-based-nitrogen contributions, and ethanol production capacity across Iowa’s counties. Our methodology leverages geoprocessing and interpolation tools to address data availability challenges and refine nitrogen surplus (Ns) estimates. The results reveal spatial–temporal dynamics of cropland-nitrogen, quantify non-point nitrogen sources at the county level, and evaluate the impact of energy systems on the IFEWs balance. We discuss the implications of our findings for sustainable agriculture, environmental management, and energy production in Iowa. The study highlights the need for integrated approaches to address the complex interactions within the IFEWs and informs policy development for sustainable resource management.

Examining impacts of policy, technology, and climate extremes on thermoelectric power production and river thermal pollution in the Midwest and Northeast of the United States

As one of the components comprising food-energy-water systems (FEWS), the energy sector, especially electricity production, is intimately connected to water. Climate extremes-related impacts on water resources will directly affect the interdependence of water, food, and energy. A better understanding of the extent of climate impacts on energy sector and the options to improve water-energy security are needed for planning an overall resilient FEWS. Therefore, we are motivated to examine the climate stress on the thermoelectric power supply using the Water Balance Model coupled with Thermoelectric Power & Thermal Pollution Model (WBM-TP2M), which can simulate water-energy linkages at the power plant, river reach, and regional scales. Using the Midwest (MW) and Northeast (NE) regions as our study area, we design a group of single- and multi-factor experiments both for historical climate period (1980–2019) and a case where we create a series of intensified extremes (2010–2019). The results show that power generation over the two regions features a gradually increasing trend in the past four decades, while, in contrast, thermal pollution has been decreasing steadily since 2005. Heat waves created temporary dips in the generation of electricity and peaks of heavily thermal-polluted stream length. The experiments reveal the significant role of cooling towers in reducing thermal pollution without losing much capacity to generate power, one important measure of resilience against climate extremes. Constraints placed on effluent temperature from the Clean Water Act lead to interrupted operations, which reduces (up to 20%) power generation, increases sensitivity to climatic extremes, but only show a small reduction in thermal pollution. Coal, as a fuel source, is subject to low thermal efficiency and high-water demand, which results in clearly decreased power generation. Overall, our findings suggest that replacing a less thermal-efficient fuel mix and environmentally destructive once-through cooling can move the energy sector towards several beneficial outcomes. Chief among these is a more efficient power production system that uses less water and does so while fostering clean, less carbon-intense technologies (e.g., combined gas cycle turbines, cooling towers, renewable energy), thus linking positive outcomes that simultaneously and positively impact aquatic ecosystems, regional airsheds and human health.

Integrated Agricultural Practices and Engineering Technologies Enhance Synergies of Food-Energy-Water Systems in Corn Belt Watersheds.

Interconnected food, energy, water systems (FEWS) require systems level understanding to design efficient and effective management strategies and policies that address potentially competing challenges of production and environmental quality. Adoption of agricultural best management practices (BMPs) can reduce nonpoint source phosphorus (P) loads, but there are also opportunities to recover P from point sources, which could also reduce demand for mineral P fertilizer derived from declining geologic reserves. Here, we apply the Integrated Technology-Environment-Economics Model to investigate the consequences of watershed-scale portfolios of agricultural BMPs and environmental and biological technologies (EBTs) for co-benefits of FEWS in Corn Belt watersheds. Via a pilot study with a representative agro-industrial watershed with high P and nitrogen discharge, we show achieving the nutrient reduction goals in the watershed; BMP-only portfolios require extensive and costly land-use change (19% of agricultural land) to perennial energy grasses, while portfolios combining BMPs and EBTs can improve water quality while recovering P from corn biorefineries and wastewater streams with only 4% agricultural land-use change. The potential amount of P recovered from EBTs is estimated as 2 times as much as the agronomic P requirement in the watershed, showing the promise of the P circular economy. These findings inform solution development based on the combination of agricultural BMPs and EBTs for the cobenefits of FEWS in Corn Belt watersheds.

Simulating basin-scale linkages of the food-energy-water nexus with reduced complexity modeling

There is a rapidly growing need to communicate to the public and policymakers on the nature and impact of climate change and its associated extremes, which manifest themselves across essential Food-Energy-Water Systems (FEWS). The complexity of this nexus demands analytical tools that can capture the essence of FEWS with the climate system, which may be difficult to stage and implement from a computationally efficient point-of-view. Reduced Complexity Models (RCMs) can synthesize important facets of a system quickly and with less dependence on difficult-to-assign inputs. We report on the development of an RCM framework for the FEWS nexus, to serve as a basic research tool in facilitating parameter sensitivity experiments as well as a means to establish more insightful dialogue with stakeholders through joint scenario construction. Three stand-alone and coupled models at the basin scale have been configured using Stella Architect software to simulate: 1) major flows and storage of water, 2) power plant operations and subsequent impacts on river reaches; and 3) nitrogen (N) mobilization and transport from atmospheric and landmass sources to riverine receiving waters. The Delaware River Basin is chosen for a contemporary simulation test case. Modeled results are calibrated and validated using observed stream gauge data, indicating reliable model performance at the monthly and annual time steps (0.57 < NSE < 0.98). A set of single and multi-factor climate, technology, and policy experiments are then explored using the RCM framework. Basin-scale system sensitivities are investigated across a set of intensified climate extremes, revealing the crucial roles of sewage treatment and energy infrastructure for climate resilience, significant exacerbations as well as mitigations of thermal and N pollution under opposing climate extremes, and important tradeoffs between river temperature and electricity production that are explored with technology and policy scenarios.

Valuing changes in the portfolio of service flows from climate-induced extremes on a linked food, energy, water system (C-FEWS)

Introduction:Recent work examining the impact of climate-change induced extremes on food-energy-water systems (FEWS) estimates the potential changes in physical flows of multiple elements of the systems. Climate adaptation decisions can involve tradeoffs between different system outcomes. Thus, it is important for decision makers to consider the potential changes in monetary value attributed to the observed changes in physical flows from these events, since the value to society of a unit change in an outcome varies widely between thing like food and energy production, water quality, and carbon sequestration.Methods:We develop a valuation tool (FEWSVT) that applies theoretically sound valuation techniques to estimates changes in value for four parameters within the food-energy-water nexus. We demonstrate the utility of the tool through the application of a case study that analyzes the monetary changes in value of a modelled heat wave scenario relative to historic (baseline) conditions in two study regions in the United States.Results:We find that food (corn and soybeans) comprises the majority (89%) of total changes in value, as heatwaves trigger physical changes in corn and soybeans yields. We also find that specifying overly simplified and incorrect valuation methods lead to monetary values that largely differ from FEWSVT results that use accepted valuation methods.Discussion:These results demonstrate the value in considering changes in monetary value instead of just physical flows when making decisions on how to distribute investments and address the many potential impacts of climate change-induced extremes.

Socio-Ecological Futures: Embedded Solutions for Stakeholder-Driven Alternative Futures

Scenarios of landscape change have the capacity to address spatial and temporal issues, current and future trends, and solutions that increase capacity and/or resilience in social-ecological systems and their networks. In this study, we present a resilience framework for food–energy–water systems and demonstrate it with a case study in Magic Valley, Idaho. We formulated scenarios of change based on stakeholder input (qualitative data), researcher-developed models (quantitative data), and validation of plausibility through impact and indicator evaluation. The stakeholder engagement process identified key issues, critical uncertainties, and plausible and viable solutions to future challenges. Specifically, we analyzed cross-scenario futures and their solutions to address water quality issues in the face of climate change, land-use change conflicts, and population shifts in the region. The process activates stakeholder and research-based models to create geospatial alternative futures and their associated timesteps, with embedded solutions, which broadens and improves conventional scenario-based research. The process intends to provide policy-makers, researchers, and scenario facilitators with a strategic framework to activate solutions temporally with a stakeholder-defined suite of scenarios.

Means, motive, and opportunity

Wicked problems are inherent in food–energy–water systems (FEWS) due to the complexity and interconnectedness of these systems, and addressing these challenges necessitates the involvement of the diverse stakeholders in FEWS. However, successful stakeholder engagement requires a strong understanding of the relationships between stakeholders and the specific wicked problem. To better account for these relationships, we adapted a means, motive, and opportunity (MMO) framework to develop a method of stakeholder analysis that evaluates the agency of stakeholders related to a wicked problem in FEWS. This method involves two key components: (1) identification of a challenge at the FEWS nexus and (2) evaluation of stakeholder agency related to the challenge using the dimensions of MMO. This approach provides a method for understanding the characteristics of stakeholders in FEWS and provides information that could be used to inform stakeholder engagement in efforts to address wicked problems at the FEWS nexus. In this article, we present the stakeholder analysis method and describe an example application of the MMO method by examining stakeholder agency related to the adoption of improved swine waste management technology in North Carolina, USA.

Iowa Urban FEWS: Integrating Social and Biophysical Models for Exploration of Urban Food, Energy, and Water Systems.

Most people in the world live in urban areas, and their high population densities, heavy reliance on external sources of food, energy, and water, and disproportionately large waste production result in severe and cumulative negative environmental effects. Integrated study of urban areas requires a system-of-systems analytical framework that includes modeling with social and biophysical data. We describe preliminary work toward an integrated urban food-energy-water systems (FEWS) analysis using co-simulation for assessment of current and future conditions, with an emphasis on local (urban and urban-adjacent) food production. We create a framework to enable simultaneous analyses of climate dynamics, changes in land cover, built forms, energy use, and environmental outcomes associated with a set of drivers of system change related to policy, crop management, technology, social interaction, and market forces affecting food production. The ultimate goal of our research program is to enhance understanding of the urban FEWS nexus so as to improve system function and management, increase resilience, and enhance sustainability. Our approach involves data-driven co-simulation to enable coupling of disparate food, energy and water simulation models across a range of spatial and temporal scales. When complete, these models will quantify energy use and water quality outcomes for current systems, and determine if undesirable environmental effects are decreased and local food supply is increased with different configurations of socioeconomic and biophysical factors in urban and urban-adjacent areas. The effort emphasizes use of open-source simulation models and expert knowledge to guide modeling for individual and combined systems in the urban FEWS nexus.

Optimal Design of Sustainable Ammonia-Based Food–Energy–Water Systems with Nitrogen Management

As the basis for virtually any form of nitrogen fertilizers, ammonia plays a vital role in agriculture; in addition, there has been an increased interest in its use as a carbon-free energy carrier....

Exploring the food–energy–water nexus approach to enhance coastal community resilience research and planning

Non-technical summary Coastal communities face environmental challenges that put food, energy, and water systems at risk. Although highly interdependent, it is unknown the extent to which coastal resilience research has considered interactions among food–energy–water systems. Twenty peer-reviewed articles were identified that focused on these systems and coastal resilience. Although a nexus approach was not employed universally, these studies most commonly addressed interactions among these systems related to acute hazards. They consistently acknowledged the influence of energy and transportation systems upon the others. As such, planners should incorporate linkages across all three systems during coastal resilience planning especially in relation to acute hazards. Technical summary Coastal communities strive for resilience in the face of an ever-growing suite of threats by planning and preparing for numerous uncertain futures. Food, energy, and water systems are highly interconnected and essential to the well-being of coastal communities. However, it is unknown the extent to which coastal resilience research has included food–energy–water nexus considerations. This study used a systematic literature review of peer-reviewed research articles and identified 20 studies that focused on food, energy, and water systems as related to coastal resilience. Results revealed four main findings: (1) the food–energy–water nexus approach was most commonly applied to coastal resilience in the study of US locations and in the context of acute hazards, (2) a direct food–energy–water or other nexus approach was directly employed by only half of the studies, however, all highlighted the relevance of systems interconnections in the context of coastal resilience, (3) the energy system was shown to impact every system to which it was connected, and (4) the transportation system was also shown to impact every system to which it was connected, which suggests that the food–energy–water nexus should be expanded to include transportation systems. Social media summary Coastal resilience and food–energy–water nexus literature synthesis finds interconnected systems considerations relevant to resilience.

Techno-ecologically synergistic food–energy–water systems can meet human and ecosystem needs

Techno-ecologically synergistic designs of the food–energy–water-waste nexus can be better than conventional techno-centric designs while meeting ecological and societal needs.

Multi-agent management of integrated food-energy-water systems using stochastic games: from Nash equilibrium to the social optimum

System-level integration and optimization of food-energy-water systems (FEWS) require coordination of multiple agencies and decision-makers and incorporating their interdependence. In general, such coordination might be hard to achieve. As a result, the literature on FEWS management either optimizes the operations for one sector (or one decision-maker), or models interdependence among the sectors without optimizing their operations. In this article, we develop a novel multi-agent management optimization approach that is able to incorporate stochasticity and uncertainty in the system’s dynamics and interdependence of the water and energy resources for food production. The proposed method is the first attempt to utilize fundamentals of decision and game theories to optimize operations of multi-agent FEWS. We specifically focus on differentiating between (1) cooperative decision optimization of the operations, where all decision-makers cooperate to achieve the best outcome for the whole system, the social optimum, and (2) non-cooperative decision-making of the agents, the Nash equilibrium. Illustrating with a real-world case study of FEWS in Ventura County, California, we show the difference between the cooperative and non-cooperative decision making in terms of long-term expected cost of managing the system. We further show how the extra costs associated with utilizing the renewable sources of water and energy could be incentivised, so that the non-cooperative solution (the Nash equilibrium) would naturally converge to the best outcome for the whole system (the social optimum).

A Cloud-Based Evaluation of the National Land Cover Database to Support New Mexico’s Food–Energy–Water Systems

Accurate estimation of land use/land cover (LULC) areas is critical, especially over the semi-arid environments of the southwestern United States where water shortage and loss of rangelands and croplands are affecting the food production systems. This study was conducted within the context of providing an improved understanding of New Mexico’s (NM’s) Food–Energy–Water Systems (FEWS) at the county level. The main goal of this analysis was to evaluate the most important LULC classes for NM’s FEWS by implementing standardized protocols of accuracy assessment and providing bias-corrected area estimates of these classes. The LULC data used in the study was based on National Land Cover Database (NLCD) legacy maps of 1992, 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016. The analysis was conducted using the cloud-based geospatial processing and modeling tools available from System for Earth Observation Data Access, Processing, and Analysis for Land Monitoring (SEPAL) of the Food and Agricultural Organization. Accuracy assessment, uncertainty analysis, and bias-adjusted area estimates were evaluated by collecting a total of 11,428 reference samples using the Open Foris Collect Earth tool that provided access to high spatial and temporal resolution images available in Google Earth. The reference samples were allocated using a stratified random sampling approach. The results showed an overall accuracy that ranged from 71%–100% in all six study counties. The user’s and producer’s accuracy of most LULC classes were about or above 80%. The obtained bias-adjusted area estimates were higher than those based on pixel counting. The bias-adjusted area estimates simultaneously showed decreasing and increasing trends in grassland and shrubland, respectively in four counties that include Curry, Roosevelt, Lea, and Eddy during the 1992–2016 period. Doña Ana county experienced increasing and decreasing trends in grassland and shrubland areas, respectively. San Juan county experienced decreasing trends in both grassland and shrubland areas. Cultivated cropland areas showed decreasing trends in three counties in southeast NM that rely on groundwater resources including Curry, Roosevelt, and Lea. Similarly, cultivated cropland areas showed increasing trends in the other three counties that rely on surface water or conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources including San Juan, Doña Ana, and Eddy. The use of SEPAL allowed for efficient assessment and production of more accurate bias-adjusted area estimates compared to using pixel counting. Providing such information can help in understanding the behavior of NM’s food production systems including rangelands and croplands, better monitoring and characterizing NM’s FEWS, and evaluating their behavior under changing environmental and climatic conditions. More effort is needed to evaluate the ability of the NLCD data and other similar products to provide more accurate LULC area estimates at local scales.

Historical Trends in New Mexico Forage Crop Production in Relation to Climate, Energy, and Rangelands

This study was conducted within the context of providing an improved understanding of New Mexico’s food, energy, water systems (FEWS) and their behavior under variable climate and socioeconomic conditions. The goal of this paper was to characterize the relationships between production and prices of some forage crops (hay, grain sorghum, and corn) that can be used as feed supplements for beef cattle production and the potential impacts from a changing climate (precipitation, temperature) and energy inputs (crude oil production and prices). The analysis was based on 60 years of data (1958–2017) using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. Hay production showed a declining trend since 2000 and in 2017, it dropped by ~33% compared to that of 2000. Crude oil production (R2 = 0.83) and beef cattle population (R2 = 0.85) were negatively correlated with hay production. A moderate declining trend in mean annual hay prices was also observed. Mean annual range conditions (R2 = 0.60) was negatively correlated with mean annual hay prices, whereas mean annual crude oil prices (R2 = 0.48) showed a positive relationship. Grain sorghum production showed a consistent declining trend since 1971 and in 2017, it dropped by ~91% compared to that of 1971. Mean annual temperature (R2 = 0.58) was negatively correlated with grain sorghum production, while beef cattle population (R2 = 0.61) and range conditions (R2 = 0.51) showed positive linear relationships. Mean annual grain sorghum prices decreased since the peak of 1974 and in 2017, they dropped by ~77% compared to those of 1974. Crude oil prices (R2 = 0.72) and beef cattle population (R2 = 0.73) were positively correlated with mean annual grain sorghum prices. Corn production in 2017 dropped by ~61% compared to the peak that occurred in 1999. Crude oil production (R2 = 0.85) and beef cattle population (R2 = 0.86) were negatively correlated with corn production. Mean annual corn prices showed a declining trend since 1974 and in 2017, they dropped by ~75% compared to those of 1974. Mean annual corn prices were positively correlated with mean annual precipitation (R2 = 0.83) and negatively correlated with crude oil production (R2 = 0.84). These finding can particularly help in developing a more holistic model that integrates FEWS components to explain their response to internal (i.e., management practices) and external (i.e., environmental) stressors. Such holistic modeling can further inform the development and adoption of more sustainable production and resource use practices.

An Evaluation of Historical Trends in New Mexico Beef Cattle Production in Relation to Climate and Energy

In support of Food-Energy-Water Systems (FEWS) analysis to enhance its sustainability for New Mexico (NM), this study evaluated observed trends in beef cattle population in response to environmental and economic changes. The specific goal was to provide an improved understanding of the behavior of NM’s beef cattle production systems relative to precipitation, temperature, rangeland conditions, production of hay and crude oil, and prices of hay and crude oil. Historical data of all variables were available for the 1973–2017 period. The analysis was conducted using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. The results indicated declining trends in beef cattle population and prices. The most important predictors of beef cattle population variation were hay production, mean annual hay prices, and mean annual temperature, whereas mean annual temperature, cattle feed sold, and crude oil production were the most important predictors for calf population that weigh under 500 lb. Prices of beef cattle showed a strong positive relationship with crude oil production, mean annual hay prices, rangeland conditions, and mean annual precipitation. However, mean annual temperature had a negative relationship with mean annual beef prices. Variation in mean annual calf prices was explained by hay production, mean annual temperature, and crude oil production. This analysis suggested that NM’s beef cattle production systems were affected mainly and directly by mean annual temperature and crude oil production, and to a lesser extent by other factors studied in this research.

Contrasting stakeholder and scientist conceptual models of food-energy-water systems: a case study in Magic Valley, Southern Idaho

One of the factors for the success of simulation studies is close collaboration with stakeholders in developing a conceptual model. Conceptual models are a useful tool for communicating and understanding how real systems work. However, models or frameworks that are not aligned with the perceptions and understanding of local stakeholders can induce uncertainties in the model outcomes. We focus on two sources of epistemic uncertainty in building conceptual models of food-energy-water systems (FEWS): (1) context and framing; and (2) model structure uncertainty. To address these uncertainties, we co-produced a FEWS conceptual model with key stakeholders using the Actor-Resources-Dynamics-Interaction (ARDI) method. The method was adopted to specifically integrate public (and local) knowledge of stakeholders in the Magic Valley region of Southern Idaho into a FEWS model. We first used the ARDI method with scientists and modellers (from various disciplines) conducting research in the system, and then repeated the process with local stakeholders. We compared results from the two cohorts and refined the conceptual model to align with local stakeholders’ understanding of the FEWS. This co-development of a conceptual model with local stakeholders ensured the incorporation of different perspectives and types of knowledge of key actors within the socio-ecological systems models.

Optimizing dynamics of integrated food–energy–water systems under the risk of climate change

Integrated management of food–energy–water systems (FEWS) requires a unified, flexible and reproducible approach to incorporate the interdependence between sectors, and include the risk of non-stationary environmental variations due to climate change. Most of the recently developed methods in the literature fall short of one or more aspects in such integration. In this article, we propose a novel approach based upon fundamentals of decision theory and reinforcement learning that (1) quantifies and propagates uncertainty, (2) incorporates resource interdependence, (3) includes the impact of uncontrolled variables such as climate variations, and (4) adaptively optimizes management decisions to minimize the costs and environmental impacts of crop production. Moreover, the proposed method is robust to problem-specific complexities and is easily reproducible. We illustrate the framework on a real-world case study in Ventura County, California.

MicroFEWs: A Food-Energy-Water Systems Approach to Renewable Energy Decisions in Islanded Microgrid Communities in Rural Alaska.

In recent years, there has been increased recognition of the importance of a nexus approach to optimize food, energy, and water (FEW) security at regional and global scales. Remote communities in the Arctic and Subarctic regions in Alaska provide unique examples of closed and isolated systems, wherein the FEW nexus not only needs to be examined to lend resilience to these vulnerable communities but that could also serve as small-scale test beds for a wider and systematic understanding of the FEW nexus. In this short communication, looking at the FEW nexus in Cordova, Alaska, through an energy lens, we introduce an approach (referred to as the “MicroFEWs approach”) that may assist remote communities in Alaska in making informed decisions regarding the use of renewable energy to increase FEW security. Our example uses the MicroFEWs approach to assess the impacts of increased renewable energy generation on FEW security in the community, more specifically to food security through potential changes to the community's fish processing industry. This approach can serve as a basis for investigating the FEW nexus in varying contexts and locales.

Projecting Pathways to Food–Energy–Water Systems Sustainability Through Ontology

Abstract The FEWsOnt ontology models major structural and dynamic concepts of the food–energy–water (FEW) systems from the complex system perspective by defining the emergent, nonlinear, and scale-...