Abstract
In support of Food-Energy-Water Systems (FEWS) analysis to enhance its sustainability for New Mexico (NM), this study evaluated observed trends in beef cattle population in response to environmental and economic changes. The specific goal was to provide an improved understanding of the behavior of NM’s beef cattle production systems relative to precipitation, temperature, rangeland conditions, production of hay and crude oil, and prices of hay and crude oil. Historical data of all variables were available for the 1973–2017 period. The analysis was conducted using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. The results indicated declining trends in beef cattle population and prices. The most important predictors of beef cattle population variation were hay production, mean annual hay prices, and mean annual temperature, whereas mean annual temperature, cattle feed sold, and crude oil production were the most important predictors for calf population that weigh under 500 lb. Prices of beef cattle showed a strong positive relationship with crude oil production, mean annual hay prices, rangeland conditions, and mean annual precipitation. However, mean annual temperature had a negative relationship with mean annual beef prices. Variation in mean annual calf prices was explained by hay production, mean annual temperature, and crude oil production. This analysis suggested that NM’s beef cattle production systems were affected mainly and directly by mean annual temperature and crude oil production, and to a lesser extent by other factors studied in this research.
Highlights
A tremendous increase of 50% or more in global demand for meat, especially beef, is predicted over the 30 years [1]; this prediction is due to the expected human population growth which can reach up to 9.7 billion by 2050 [2,3]
This paper highlighted some relationships that can be used to describe the behavior of beef cattle production systems including beef cattle population, calf production, and beef cattle prices, and calf prices in response to environmental and economic factors that include precipitation, temperature, prices and production of hay and crude oil, cattle feed sold, and range conditions in New Mexico (NM)
The results showed that all four variables, beef cattle population, calf population, and prices of beef cattle and calf, experienced an overall declining trend since 1973
Summary
A tremendous increase of 50% or more in global demand for meat, especially beef, is predicted over the 30 years [1]; this prediction is due to the expected human population growth which can reach up to 9.7 billion by 2050 [2,3]. A recent special report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on climate change and land indicated that the growing demand for beef (or generally red meat) has a significant impact on land resources, water consumption, and greenhouse gas emission which can have a positive feedback on (i.e., accelerating) climate [5]. The importance of the beef industry to the United States (US) arises from its significant contribution to the economy as livestock production accounts for about half of the total farm revenue (~$137 billion) [6]. While accounting for beef industry as an individual system is important, this vision highlighted the need to include and consider the integration of this system with the interconnected food-energy-water (FEW) systems [10]
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