Flux Adjustment Research Articles

Flux correction: tests with a simple ocean-atmosphere model

Flux correction schemes are used in order to suppress the drift of coupled ocean atmosphere models. This technique is tested for a simple box model of the climate system. Two “perfect” models of the ocean and the atmosphere are available. These are coupled to form an ocean-atmosphere model representing the true climate system. This climate system is simulated by a climate model which is also constructed by coupling those two perfect models. This time, however, both models are run first separately as models of the atmosphere and the ocean. In that case, “observations” from the climate system are prescribed at the ocean surface in the uncoupled models. It is assumed that these observations are imperfect. A drift results, when these models are coupled to form an ocean-atmosphere stimulation model. A flux adjustment scheme is implemented to remove this drift. It is argued that the merits and shortcomings of the flux correction technique can be assessed more clearly this way than by coupling imperfect models as is done normally. Sensitivity tests are performed where either radiation parameters are changed or a salt anomaly is implanted. Model parameters are chosen such that the ocean has a thermally direct circulation in the unperturbed climate state. It is found that the flux correction technique is performing satisfactorily as long as the imposed perturbations are small enough so that the ocean circulation does not change its sense. If, however, the model climate is close to the transition to an indirect circulation, then the flux correction technique is unreliable. The predictions of the coupled model with flux correction may deviate substantially from the response of the climate system in that case.

Temporal‐geographical meltwater influences on the North Atlantic conveyor: Implications for the Younger Dryas

The temporal and geographical roles of meltwater discharge (from the Laurentide ice sheet) on North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) production are investigated utilizing a global, realistic geometry, coupled climate model which does not require the use of flux adjustments. Model results suggest that preconditioning by meltwater discharge (to the Mississippi) prior to the Younger Dryas (YD) is capable of pushing NADW beyond the limit of its sustainability. The diversion of meltwater to the St. Lawrence then merely serves to completely inhibit NADW production. The modeled change in surface air temperature generally agrees with the global pattern and magnitude of temperature change seen in paleoclimatic reconstructions of the YD and is intimately linked to changes in NADW formation. The global thermohaline circulation provides an interhemispheric teleconnection with the Southern Oceans, while changes in the atmospheric heat transport (reacting to a global redistribution of oceanic heat transport) provide a mechanism for interbasin teleconnection. Although the primary thermodynamic and hydrological cycle feedback processes are included within the atmospheric model, in the absence of additional feedbacks an equilibrium without the presence of NADW is possible. The inclusion of the wind stress/speed feedback is found to significantly contribute to the resumption of NADW production, as suggested by previous studies. Contrary to these same studies, however, the coupled model indicates an advective spin‐up timescale is required for resumption of NADW production and hence the termination of the modeled YD‐like climate event (as opposed to a decadal‐century timescale). The reason for the discrepancy is unclear but may be associated with the use of fixed salt flux fields applied in previous studies, or the duration, strength, and geographical location of the imposed meltwater applied.

Evaluation of the representation of Arctic sea ice in the U.K. Hadley Centre GCM

The amount of Arctic sea ice predicted by the Hadley Centre Global Cilimate Model (GCM) is evaluated using 15 years of passive-microwave data. While the Hadley model reproduces the seasonal cycle reasonably well, it underestimates the total area of sea ice by more than 3 × 106 km2 for most of the year. In the winter months, most of the underestimate in ice area results from the prediction of far too little ice in Hudson Bay and the Sea of Okhotsk, leading to an excess of up to 0.2 PW heat input to the atmosphere from Hudson Bay alone. The surface-energy budget of Hudson Bay is investigated using a mixture of surface observations (POLES), satellite data (ATSR, SSM/I and ISCCP) and output from the Goddard Data Assimilation Office analysis. Flux adjustments of the order of 200 Wm−2, resulting from anomalously high sea-surface temperatures in the Levitus (1982) climatology, are found to be the cause of the model’s underestimation of sea ice in both Hudson Bay and the Sea of Okhotsk. The fact that flux adjustments based on an inaccurate climatology will produce errors, even if the model physics is correct, underlines the need both for improved climatologies and for models accurate enough not to require flux adjustment.

Evaluation of the representation of Arctic sea ice in the U.K. Hadley Centre GCM

The amount of Arctic sea ice predicted by the Hadley Centre Global Cilimate Model (GCM) is evaluated using 15 years of passive-microwave data. While the Hadley model reproduces the seasonal cycle reasonably well, it underestimates the total area of sea ice by more than 3 × 106km2for most of the year. In the winter months, most of the underestimate in ice area results from the prediction of far too little ice in Hudson Bay and the Sea of Okhotsk, leading to an excess of up to 0.2 PW heat input to the atmosphere from Hudson Bay alone. The surface-energy budget of Hudson Bay is investigated using a mixture of surface observations (POLES), satellite data (ATSR, SSM/I and ISCCP) and output from the Goddard Data Assimilation Office analysis. Flux adjustments of the order of 200 Wm−2, resulting from anomalously high sea-surface temperatures in the Levitus (1982) climatology, are found to be the cause of the model’s underestimation of sea ice in both Hudson Bay and the Sea of Okhotsk. The fact that flux adjustments based on an inaccurate climatology will produce errors, even if the model physics is correct, underlines the need both for improved climatologies and for models accurate enough not to require flux adjustment.

Interannual and interdecadal variabilities in the Pacific in an MRI coupled GCM

Interannual and interdecadal variabilities in the Pacific are investigated with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM developed at MRI, Japan. The model is run for 70 years with flux adjustments. The model shows interannual variability in the tropical Pacific which has several typical characteristics shared with the observed ENSO. A basin-scale feature of the principal SST variation for the ENSO time scale shows negative correlation in the central North Pacific with the tropical SST, similar to that of the observed one. Associated variation of the model atmosphere indicates an intensification of the Aleutian Low and a PNA-like teleconnection pattern as a response to the tropical warm SST anomaly. The ENSO time scale variability in the midlatitude ocean consists of the westward propagation of the subsurface temperature signal and the temperature variation within the shallow mixed layer forced by the anomalous atmospheric heat fluxes. For the interdecadal time scale, variation of the SST is simulated realistically with a geographical pattern similar to that for the ENSO time scale, but it has a larger relative amplitude in the northern Pacific. For the atmosphere, spatial structure of the variation in the interdecadal time scale is also similar to that in the ENSO time scale, but has smaller amplitude in the northern Pacific. Long oceanic spin-up time (>∼10 y) in the mid-high latitude, however, makes oceanic response in the interdecadal time scale larger than that in the ENSO time scale. The lagged-regression analysis for the ocean temperature variation relative to the wind stress variation indicates that interdecadal variation of the ocean subsurface at the mid-high latitudes is considered as enhanced ocean gyre spin-up process in response to the atmospheric circulation change at the mid-high latitudes, remotely forced by the interdecadal variation of the tropical SST.

An atmospheric energy‐moisture balance model: Climatology, interpentadal climate change, and coupling to an ocean general circulation model

An atmospheric model incorporating energy and moisture balance equations is developed for use in process studies of the climate system. Given the sea surface temperature and specified surface wind field, the atmospheric model calculates the surface fields of air temperature, specific humidity, as well as heat and freshwater fluxes. The inclusion of the moisture balance in the atmospheric model allows the effects of latent heat transport to be included explicitly in the model. Under fixed climatological sea surface temperature (SST) and surface wind conditions, surface air temperatures, specific humidities, and surface fluxes are comparable to direct estimates. Precipitation compares less favorably with observations. As an extension to the climatological forcing case, we conduct a simple perturbation experiment in which the 1955–1959 pentad is compared to the 1970–1974 pentad by driving the model under the respective SST fields. The model exhibits a global air temperature decrease in the latter pentad of 0.27°C (comparable to direct estimates) with cooling in the northern hemisphere and warming in the southern hemisphere. Such large‐scale cooling in our atmospheric model is driven by equivalent local changes in the prescribed SST fields, subsequently smoothed by atmospheric diffusion of heat. The interpentadal modeled differences are shown to be quite robust through model experiments using parameters representative of several different unrealistic climatologies. The resulting interpentadal difference fields change remarkably little even when the background state has changed dramatically. This emphasizes the almost linear response of the atmospheric model to the imposed SST changes. The atmospheric model is also coupled to an ocean general circulation model without the need for flux adjustments. This coupled climate model faithfully represents deep water formation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, with upwelling throughout the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Water mass characteristics in the vertical compare very favorably with direct observations.

On the incompatibility of ocean and atmosphere models and the need for flux adjustments

On the incompatibility of ocean and atmosphere models and the need for flux adjustments

On the incompatibility of ocean and atmosphere models and the need for flux adjustments

The surface heat and freshwater fluxes from equilibrium ocean (OGCM) and atmospheric (AGCM) general circulation model climates are examined in order to determine the minimum flux adjustment required to prevent climate drift upon coupling. This is accomplished by integrating an OGCM with specified surface fluxes. It is shown that a dramatic climate drift of the coupled system is inevitable unless ocean meridional heat and freshwater (salt) transports are used as constraints for tuning the AGCM present-day climatology. It is further shown that the magnitude of the mismatch between OGCM and AGCM fluxes is not as important for climate drift as the difference in OGCM and implied AGCM meridional heat and freshwater (salt) transports. Hence a minimum flux adjustment is proposed, which is zonally-uniform in each basin and of small magnitude compared to present flux adjustments. This minimum flux adjustment acts only to correct the AGCM implied oceanic meridional transports of heat and freshwater (salt). A slight extension is also proposed to overcome the drift in the surface waters when the minimum flux adjustment is used. Finally, it is suggested that the flux adjustments which arise from current methods used to determine them are all very similar, leading to adjustment fields which are significantly larger than both AGCM and climatological fields over large regions.

A coupled atmosphere‐ocean model for transient climate change studies

Abstract A new coupled atmosphere‐ocean model has been developed for climate predictions at decade to century scales. The atmospheric model is similar to that of Hansen et al. (1983) except that the atmospheric dynamic equations for mass and momentum are solved using Arakawa and Lamb's (1977) C grid scheme and the advection of potential enthalpy and water vapour uses the linear upstream scheme (Russell and Lerner, 1981). The new global ocean model conserves mass, allows for divergent flow, has a free surface and uses the linear upstream scheme for the advection of potential enthalpy and salt. Both models run at 4° × 5° resolution, with 9 vertical layers for the atmosphere and 13 layers for the ocean. Twelve straits are included, allowing for subgrid‐scale water flow. Runoff from land is routed into appropriate ocean basins. Atmospheric and oceanic surface fluxes are of opposite sign and are applied synchronously. Flux adjustments are not used. Except for partial strength alternating binomial filters (Shap...

Stochastic variability at the air‐sea interface on decadal timescales

Multiple integrations of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) exhibit differences in the decadal mean of the surface heat flux, Q. The differences (typically 2–3 Wm−2) can be as large as 10 Wm−2 in places, which are shown to produce sea‐surface temperature (SST) changes up to approximately 0.5°C in a hybrid coupled atmosphere/ocean/sea‐ice model or HCM. This underscores a significant mechanism by which long‐lived SST anomalies can arise, independent of any internal ocean variability, for which there is very little predictive capability. Consequently, AGCM integrations using prescribed SSTs provide upper bounds on the predictability of atmospheric variability. The HCM is used to estimate the magnitude of the drift in the climatology of coupled models if flux adjustments are based on AGCM integrations of decadal duration.The random interannual fluctuations in Q averaged over the ocean are most closely associated with fluctuations in surface latent heating and long wave radiation to space. The same fluctuations are not associated with land surface variability.The impact of variability in other fluxes on SST in the HCM was also analysed. Changes due to wind‐stress were approximately half those due to heating, while changes due to freshwater forcing were relatively unimportant except at polar latitudes.

Atmospheric Transports, the Thermohaline Circulation, and Flux Adjustments in a Simple Coupled Model

A theoretical analysis of the interactions between atmospheric meridional transports and the thermohaline circulation is presented, using a four-box ocean-atmosphere model in one hemisphere. The model is a simplified version of that developed by Nakamura Stone, and Marotzke and is amenable to analytical solutions. The ocean model is Stommel's; the atmospheric model gives the surface heat and freshwater fluxes as residuals of the atmospheric energy and moisture budgets, assumed in balance. Radiation at the top of the atmosphere depends linearly on surface temperature; atmospheric meridional heat and moisture transports are proportional to the meridional temperature gradient. A Newtonian cooling law is derived for differential surface heat flux. The restoring coefficient is proportional to the efficiency of atmospheric transports and inversely proportional to the relative ocean area compared to total surface area. Surface freshwater flux increases with increasing temperature gradient and is inversely proportional to the ratio of ocean area to catchment area. The range of stable solutions with high-latitude sinking is smaller than in related, uncoupled box models due to the dependence of freshwater flux on the temperature gradient, which leads to a positive feedback with the thermohaline circulation. A strong control of the temperature gradient by atmospheric transports enhances the positive feedback between the salinity gradient and thermohaline Circulation simultaneously, it weakens the positive feedback between atmospheric moisture transport and the thermohaline circulation. Overestimating the atmospheric moisture transport and underestimating oceanic mass transport both artificially destabilize the high-latitude sinking state. Overestimating the atmospheric heat transport and hence the Newtonian restoring coefficient can be artificially stabilizing or destabilizing. These erroneous sensitivities ate not alleviated if flux adjustments are added to obtain the correct mean climate, and then held fixed in climate change experiments. We derive alternate flux adjustment schemes, which do preserve the model's stability properties for particular sources of error.

Transient Response of the Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Increasing Carbon Dioxide. Part 1: Control Climate and Flux Adjustment

Abstract This paper describes the initialization of an experiment to study the time-dependent response of a high-resolution global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to a gradual increase in carbon dioxide. The stability of the control integration with respect to climate drift is assessed, and aspects of the model climatology relevant to the simulation of climate change are discussed. The observed variation of oceanic temperature with latitude and depth is basically well simulated, although, in common with other ocean models, the main thermocline is too diffuse. Nevertheless, it is found that large heat and water flux adjustments must be added to the surface layer of the ocean in order to prevent the occurrence of unacceptable climate drift. The ocean model appears to achieve insufficient meridional heat transport, and this is supported by the pattern of the heat flux adjustment term, although errors in the simulated atmosphere-ocean heat flux also contribute to the latter. The application...

Destabilization of the Thermohaline Circulation by Atmospheric Eddy Transports

Abstract Simple proem models have been developed to investigate the role of atmosphere-ocean feedbacks in the stability of the current mode of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic. A positive feedback between the meridional atmospheric transport of moisture and the high-latitude sinking thermohaline circulation (EMT feedback) has been found to help destabilize the latter. The minimum perturbation required to shut off the high-latitude sinking is considerably smaller when this feedback is included. Also, the high-latitude sinking is shut off much faster with this feedback than without it, given a perturbation of the same magnitude. There is also a strong positive feedback between atmospheric heat transport and the thermohaline circulation, but this can be modeled accurately on the global scale by using a properly tuned Newtonian cooling law for the surface beat flux. Idealized flux adjustment experiments suggest that the sensitivity of the real climate is not represented well in coupled atmos...

Climate Modeling's Fudge Factor Comes Under Fire

In climate modeling, nearly everybody cheats a little. Although models of how the ocean and the atmopshere interact are meant to forecast the greenhouse warming of the next century, they can`t even get today`s climate right. So the amount of heat and moisture flowing between a model`s atmosphere and ocean are adjusted until it approximates the present climate. In a study out of MIT, Nakamura, Stone, and Marotzke report that they deliverately introduced an error into a climate model, then seemingly adjusted the error away, only to find that it still hampered the model`s ability to predict future climates. The implication is that flux adjustments disguise, but may not correct a model`s underlying defects. This article discusses the broader aspects of the finding.

Verification of Commutation Spark Reduction for Brushes of Large DC Motors.

Large DC motors for driving rolling mills should have a compact motor size and tew injurious commutation spark. Good motor performance is got with a no-spark commutation of the brushes. Commutation improvements have been investigated, but problems still remain with commutation leading edge sparking and trailing edge sparking for the progress of running times of the brushes.We developed a new interpole structure to get no sparking on the leading edge. A magnetic flux adjustment winding and a leakage compensation winding is provided adjacent to the radial inner end of the interpole core to improve flux distribution under the interpoles. This approach is effective because leading edge sparking is due to unsymmetrical magnetic flux distribution under the interpoles.Further, we developed a commutation control method to maintain the best conditions on the commutation trailing edge of the brushes. The mothod adjusts the interpole flux according to the commutating conditions.We describe the circuit construction of the commutation control here. Confirmation is made of the reduction effects on the commutation leading and trailing edge sparking of the brushes when using the commutation control system for a 2, 000kW DC motor.

Do we know what difference a delay makes?

In our original comment [Risbey et al.., 1991] we argued that the work of Schlesinger and Jiang [1991a] is too limited to determine whether or not (as they put it) “the penalty is small for a 10‐year delay in initiating the transition to a regime in which greenhouse‐gas emissions are reduced.” In their reply, Schlesinger and Jiang [1991b] (hereafter S&J) presented their reasons for concluding definitively that the penalty is small. However S&J's discussion of the evidence and literature on climate change and greenhouse warming contains significant omissions and mis‐statements.In dismissing our concern that their model was too simple to evaluate the possibility of abrupt climate change, S&J rely on results from coupled ocean‐atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs), in particular the work of Cubasch et al.. [1991]. Here S&J make two claims, one of which is incorrect and the other questionable. First, they claim that “the coupled atmosphere‐ocean model of Cubasch et al. [1991] does allow the nonlinearities that Risbey et al.. [1991] criticize our simple model for not including.” In fact we explicitly mentioned changes in polar ice caps [Oerlemans and van der Veen, 1984] and release of methane from clathrates [MacDonald, 1990; Bell, 1982], neither of which are included in the model of Cubasch et al.. [1991]. Indeed, none of the published simulations of global warming using coupled ocean‐atmosphere GCMs include these effects. Nor do these models yet include in their enhanced greenhouse simulations many of the possible feedbacks involving the carbon cycle and biosphere [Lashof, 1989; Bacastow and Maier‐Reimer, 1990; Sellers, 1987] that could significantly alter greenhouse gas concentrations and surface properties. The published simulations with these models do allow for some changes in deep ocean circulation and cloud behavior, but there is controversy over whether they correctly represent these processes [Marotzke, 1991; Mitchell, 1989; Cess, 1990]. In addition the coupled models must be arbitrarily tuned (requiring substantial artificial fluxes of heat and moisture) to get the current climate right [Manabe et al.., 1991; Cubasch et al.., 1991]. Their greenhouse change simulations are at least partly constrained by these flux adjustments.

Development of global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

It has long been believed that a climate model capable of realistically simulating many features of global climate, variability, and climate change must interactively represent the major components of the dynamically coupled climate system, particularly the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere. This effort traditionally has been constrained by computing power, our understanding of the observed system, and climate modeling capability. With the advent of supercomputers, improved understanding of global climate processes, and computationally efficient general circulation climate models, we have witnessed a rapid increase in the simulation of global climate by coupling together various representations of atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice. Beginning in the late 1960s and continuing through the early 1980s, general circulation models (GCMs) of the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice were coupled and run asynchronously to produce credible simulations of the global climate. Systematic errors in these component models later led some modeling groups to use flux correction or flux adjustment, whereby either one or several of the variables at the air-sea interface are adjusted to bring the simulations in closer agreement with observations. Further advances in computing power and climate modeling techniques in the past few years have allowed global coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs to be run synchronously (i.e., atmosphere and ocean communicate at least once each model day). Computing constraints, combined with the need for multidecadal climate integrations, still only allow relatively coarse-grid ocean GCMs to be coupled to correspondingly coarse-grid atmospheric models (on the order of 500 km × 500 km). However, results from this current generation of global, coupled GCMs have revealed interesting characteristics associated with ocean dynamics and global climate in experiments with gradual increases of carbon dioxide. Another somewhat surprising aspect of the global-coupled GCM simulations is the appearance of some features associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Along with concurrent efforts with other types of limited-domain, dynamical coupled models, this has led to the realization that inherent unstable coupled modes exist in the climate system that are the unique product of the interactive coupling of the atmosphere and the ocean. All of these efforts are leading to the next generation of coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs. These models will run on even faster and larger-memory computers and will have higher-resolution atmosphere and ocean components, more accurate sea-ice formulations, improved cloud-radiation schemes, and increasingly realistic land-surface processes.

Effects of nonequilibrium and wall catalysis on Shuttle heat transfer

Nomenclature ALT = altitude C = atom mass fraction / = heat flux adjustment factor defined in Eq. (2) hD enthalpy of formation of species hT = total enthalpy k = Boltzmann constant kw = catalytic recombination rate L = length of vehicle m = mass of atom P = pressure Rn = nose radius q =heat flux S = surface distance T = temperature t =time from entry interface (Z= 122 km) V = velocity FINF = freestream velocity X axial distance from nose y = distance from body Z = geometric altitude a = angle of attack 7 = energy-transfer catalytic combination coefficient e = emittance p = density a = Stef an-Boltzmann constant