Climate Modeling's Fudge Factor Comes Under Fire

Abstract

In climate modeling, nearly everybody cheats a little. Although models of how the ocean and the atmopshere interact are meant to forecast the greenhouse warming of the next century, they can`t even get today`s climate right. So the amount of heat and moisture flowing between a model`s atmosphere and ocean are adjusted until it approximates the present climate. In a study out of MIT, Nakamura, Stone, and Marotzke report that they deliverately introduced an error into a climate model, then seemingly adjusted the error away, only to find that it still hampered the model`s ability to predict future climates. The implication is that flux adjustments disguise, but may not correct a model`s underlying defects. This article discusses the broader aspects of the finding.