Streamflow Regime Research Articles

A Vine Copula‐Based Polynomial Chaos Framework for Improving Multi‐Model Hydroclimatic Projections at a Multi‐Decadal Convection‐Permitting Scale

AbstractPhysically based hydrologic models have been extensively used for hydroclimatic projections, but key challenges remain owing to the heavy computational burden and structural variability of physically based models. In this study, we develop a vine copula‐based polynomial chaos framework for improving multi‐model projections of hydroclimatic regimes at a convection‐permitting scale over the Dongjiang River Basin located in South China. Specifically, a deep neural network (DNN)‐based polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is developed to significantly improve the efficiency of probabilistic hydrologic predictions. A vine copula multi‐model ensemble approach is also proposed to robustly combine hydrologic predictions generated from multiple DNN‐based PCEs to improve reliability and accuracy. To assess regional hydrologic responses to changing climate, multi‐decadal nested‐grid climate projections over the Guangdong‐Hong Kong‐Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) are developed using the convection‐permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 4‐km horizontal grid spacing. Our findings reveal that the DNN‐based PCEs achieve comparable performance to the physically based hydrologic predictions with an extremely low computational cost. The vine copula multi‐model ensemble approach outperforms the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) by generating more accurate and reliable hydrologic predictions. The developed framework and physical models also lead to consistent projections of future changes in streamflow regimes. Our findings reveal that the projected increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation can lead to substantial increases in flood magnitudes, but the increases may not be obvious for river basins affected by multiple reservoirs.

On the links between sub-seasonal clustering of extreme precipitation and high discharge in Switzerland and Europe

Abstract. River discharge is impacted by the sub-seasonal (weekly to monthly) temporal structure of precipitation. One example is the successive occurrence of extreme precipitation events over sub-seasonal timescales, referred to as temporal clustering. Its potential effects on discharge have received little attention. Here, we address this topic by analysing discharge observations following extreme precipitation events either clustered in time or occurring in isolation. We rely on two sets of precipitation and discharge data, one centred on Switzerland and the other over Europe. We identify “clustered” extreme precipitation events based on the previous occurrence of another extreme precipitation within a given time window. We find that clustered events are generally followed by a more prolonged discharge response with a larger amplitude. The probability of exceeding the 95th discharge percentile in 5 d following an extreme precipitation event is in particular up to twice as high for situations where another extreme precipitation event occurred in the preceding week compared to isolated extreme precipitation events. The influence of temporal clustering on discharge decreases as the clustering window increases; beyond 6–8 weeks the difference in discharge response with non-clustered events is negligible. Catchment area, streamflow regime and precipitation magnitude also modulate the response. The impact of clustering is generally smaller in snow-dominated and large catchments. Additionally, particularly persistent periods of high discharge tend to occur in conjunction with temporal clusters of precipitation extremes.

Regional extent, environmental relevance, and spatiotemporal variability of neonicotinoid insecticides detected in Florida's ambient flowing waters.

The use of imidacloprid and, to a lesser degree, other neonicotinoid insecticides is widespread in FL (and globally). The moderate to high water solubility and environmental persistence of neonicotinoids allows these compounds to readily enter, and be retained in, water resources where they may harm nontarget organisms and impact biological communities and associated trophic structures negatively. To better understand imidacloprid’s chronic long-term exposure potential to aquatic invertebrate communities in FL, grab water samples were collected monthly in 2015 at 77 monitoring stations statewide. Fifty-eight stations (75%), representing 24 of the 25 drainage basins sampled, had detectable concentrations of imidacloprid, with concentrations ranging from 2 to 660 nanograms per liter [ng/L]. Imidacloprid basin medians were found to be correlated with two of six land use categories (urban, transportation, agriculture, and three crop classes) examined; urban (rho = 0.43, p-value = 0.03), and orchards and vineyards (rho 0.49, p-value = 0.01). The resampling of 12 select stations, representing eight basins, between August 2019 and July 2020, for the neonicotinoids acetamiprid, clothianidin, dinotefuran, imidacloprid, and thiamethoxam, showed that (1) median values of imidacloprid continued to exceed the US EPA chronic freshwater Invertebrate Aquatic Life Benchmark (IALB) (10 ng/L), (2) imidacloprid concentration was directly correlated with flow measurements, and (3) while median imidacloprid concentration decreased between the two sampling events (48.5 vs. 34.5 ng/L, p-value = 0.01) differences in event 1 and 2 streamflow regimes and disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic likely affected this outcome. Clothianidin was the only other neonicotinoid found to have values greater than a US EPA IALB, with detections at three stations exceeding the chronic IALB (50 ng/L). This study highlights the challenges associated with limiting neonicotinoids from entering water resources and identifies means to reduce their entry into and persistence within FL water resources.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10661-022-10000-3.

Forest cover lessens the impact of drought on streamflow in Puerto Rico

AbstractTropical regions are experiencing high rates of forest cover loss coupled with changes in the volume and timing of rainfall. These shifts can compromise streamflow and water provision, highlighting the need to identify how forest cover influences streamflow generation under variable rainfall conditions. Although rainfall is the key driver of streamflow regimes, the role of forests is less clear, particularly in tropical regions where forest loss is an ongoing risk. Forest cover loss alters evapotranspiration, rainfall infiltration and storage, and may increase stream ecosystem vulnerability to rainfall extremes. Puerto Rico, an island with spatially heterogenous forest cover and a marked geographic rainfall gradient, is projected to experience more frequent droughts and flash flooding. Using 15‐min streamflow data collected between 2005 and 2016 from 20 US Geological Survey stream gages and 3‐hourly Multi‐Source Weighted‐Ensemble Precipitation rainfall estimates, we utilized flow‐duration curves and linear mixed regression models to examine the role of forest cover in regulating the timing and volume of streamflow. The mixed model approach helps to account for differences in watershed characteristics. We determined the effects of rainfall and forest cover on low and peak flows in Puerto Rican streams, then evaluated changes in these relationships under dry and wet antecedent rainfall conditions. Watersheds with high forest cover had consistently greater low and peak streamflow than deforested ones under all rainfall conditions, although the effect was more marked during wet antecedent conditions, suggesting that peak flow is largely the result of saturation excess overland flow. During dry antecedent rainfall conditions, highly forested watersheds had higher streamflow than deforested ones, suggesting greater hillslope storage and release may also be at play. Our results demonstrate that forest cover generated a net increase in hillslope infiltration and storage and may lessen drought impacts on streamflow in Puerto Rico. Resilience to prolonged drought may be limited by finite water storage potential in this steep, mountainous setting, highlighting maintenance of forest cover as an important water management strategy to increase infiltration.

Spatial and temporal variation in rainfall and streamflow – Dzalanyama Catchment, Malawi

Abstract Mixed research design methods were used to assess the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall and streamflow in the Dzalanyama Catchment, Malawi. Trend analysis was carried out using the Mann-Kendall trend test and showed that only three stations had statistically significant trends at the 5% level in rainfall at different time scales. Three out of five stations indicated statistically significant increasing trends at 5% level on streamflow analysis. The streamflow analysis results indicated that the warm-wet season has high mean values, the highest being 16.95 mm/month (February). The cool-dry season had lower mean values, the lowest being 0.45 mm in September. The coefficient of variation was higher in the wet than the dry months, its highest being 123% in December and the lowest 58% in September. The variability at various stations might arise from factors associated with human activity, and thorough knowledge and analysis of rainfall and streamflow regimes on different time scales are necessary for water resource management to mitigate floods and droughts.

Assessing the Impact of the Farakka Barrage on Hydrological Alteration in the Padma River with Future Insight

Climate change and human interventions (e.g., massive barrages, dams, sand mining, and sluice gates) in the Ganga–Padma River (India and Bangladesh) have escalated in recent decades, disrupting the natural flow regime and habitat. This study employed innovative trend analysis (ITA), range of variability approach (RVA), and continuous wavelet analysis (CWA) to quantify the past to future hydrological change in the river because of the building of the Farakka Barrage (FB). We also forecast flow regimes using unique hybrid machine learning techniques based on particle swarm optimization (PSO). The ITA findings revealed that the average discharge trended substantially negatively throughout the dry season (January–May). However, the RVA analysis showed that average discharge was lower than environmental flows. The CWA indicated that the FB has a significant influence on the periodicity of the streamflow regime. PSO-Reduced Error Pruning Tree (REPTree) was the best fit for average discharge prediction (RMSE = 0.14), PSO-random forest (RF) was the best match for maximum discharge (RMSE = 0.3), and PSO-M5P (RMSE = 0.18) was better for the lowest discharge prediction. Furthermore, the basin’s discharge has reduced over time, concerning the riparian environment. This research describes the measurement of hydrological change and forecasts the discharge for upcoming days, which might be valuable in developing sustainable water resource management plans in this location.

Hydroclimatic Conditions, Wildfire, and Species Assemblages Influence Co-Occurrence of Bull Trout and Tailed Frogs in Northern Rocky Mountain Streams

Although bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) and tailed frogs (Ascaphus montanus) have co-existed in forested Pacific Northwest streams for millennia, these iconic cold-water specialists are experiencing rapid environmental change caused by a warming climate and enhanced wildfire activity. Our goal was to inform future conservation by examining the habitat associations of each species and conditions that facilitate co-occupancy. We repurposed data from previous studies in the northern Rocky Mountains to assess the efficacy of bull trout electrofishing surveys for determining the occurrence of tailed frogs and the predictive capacity of habitat covariates derived from in-stream measurements and geospatial sources to model distributions of both species. Electrofishing reliably detected frog presence (89.2% rate). Both species were strongly associated with stream temperature and flow regime characteristics, and less responsive to riparian canopy cover, slope, and other salmonids. Tailed frogs were also sensitive to wildfire, with occupancy probability peaking around 80 years after a fire. Co-occupancy was most probable in locations with low-to-moderate frequencies of high winter flow events, few other salmonids, a low base-flow index, and intermediate years since fire. The distributions of these species appear to be sensitive to environmental conditions that are changing this century in forests of the northern Rocky Mountains. The amplification of climate-driven effects after wildfire may prove to be particularly problematic in the future. Habitat differences between these two species, considered to be headwater specialists, suggest that conservation measures designed for one may not fully protect the other. Additional studies involving future climate and wildfire scenarios are needed to assess broader conservation strategies and the potential to identify refuge streams where both species are likely to persist, or complementary streams where each could exist separately into the future.

Probabilistic Description of Streamflow and Active Length Regimes in Rivers.

In spite of the prevalence of temporary rivers over a wide range of climatic conditions, they represent a relatively understudied fraction of the global river network. Here, we exploit a well‐established hydrological model and a derived distribution approach to develop a coupled probabilistic description for the dynamics of the catchment discharge and the corresponding active network length. Analytical expressions for the flow duration curve (FDC) and the stream length duration curve (SLDC) were derived and used to provide a consistent classification of streamflow and active length regimes in temporary rivers. Two distinct streamflow regimes (persistent and erratic) and three different types of active length regimes (ephemeral, perennial, and ephemeral de facto) were identified depending on the value of two dimensionless parameters. These key parameters, which are related to the underlying streamflow fluctuations and the sensitivity of active length to changes in the catchment discharge (here quantified by the scaling exponent b), originate seven different behavioral classes characterized by contrasting shapes of the underlying SLDCs and FDCs. The analytical model was tested using data gathered in three study catchments located in Italy and USA, with satisfactory model performances in most cases. Our analytical and empirical results show the existence of a structural relationship between streamflow and active length regimes, which is chiefly modulated by the scaling exponent b. The proposed framework represents a promising tool for the coupled analysis of discharge and river network length dynamics in temporary streams.

Long-lasting effects of experimental flow intermittency on alpine stream macroinvertebrates (Val Roseg, Switzerland)

Changing weather patterns and receding glaciers are predicted to increase flow intermittency in alpine streams. If aquatic macroinvertebrate communities largely comprise taxa adapted to perennial flows, an increase in flow intermittency substantially reduces biodiversity and affects functional processes. We conducted a before-after-control-impact field experiment to examine how macroinvertebrate communities in an alpine headwater stream responded to and recovered from a repeated experimental increase in flow intermittency. Flow in one channel was manipulated to simulate increased summer intermittency (June–September) over two consecutive years, whilst an adjacent channel served as a control. We monitored the density of benthic macroinvertebrates, periphyton and organic matter at approximately monthly intervals over three years during the snow-free period. Before manipulation, both channels had similar ecological properties. The flow manipulation reduced the overall macroinvertebrate density, and especially the proportional rheophile density, across both years. Recovery of the macroinvertebrate community following experimental flow intermittency took more than a year, and longer than our study period. This could be due to long aquatic life stages, dispersal limitation and biotic interactions. We conclude that climate-induced changes in alpine stream flow regimes can lead to a fundamental shift in macroinvertebrate assemblages through local extinctions, mostly of rheophilic species.

The Development of a Nonstationary Standardised Streamflow Index Using Climate and Reservoir Indices as Covariates

Under current global change, the driving force of evolution of drought has gradually transitioned from a single natural factor to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors. Therefore, widely used standardised drought indices based on assumption of stationarity are challenged and may not accurately assess characteristics of drought processes. In this study, a nonstationary standardised streamflow index (NSSI) that incorporates climate and reservoir indices as external covariates was developed to access nonstationary hydrological drought. The first step of the proposed approach is to apply methods of trend and change point analysis to assess the nonstationarity of streamflow series to determine type of streamflow regime, that is, the natural and altered regime. Then, different nonstationary models were constructed to calculate the NSSI by selecting climate indices as covariates for streamflow series with natural regime, and climate and reservoir indices as covariate for streamflow series with altered regime. Four stations in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River basin, China, were selected to examine the performance of the proposed NSSI. The results indicated that Dapoling (DPL), Changtaiguan (CTG), and Xixian (XX) stations had natural streamflow regimes, while the Nanwan (NW) station had an altered regime. The global deviances of the optimal nonstationary models were 17 (2.2%), 18 (2.9%), 26 (4.0%), and 22 (3.5%) less than those of stationary models for DPL, CTG, NW, and XX stations, respectively. Especially, for the NW station influenced by reservoir regulations, the frequency of slight drought and moderate drought of NSSI was 12.8% lower than and 13.1% greater than those of SSI, respectively. Overall, the NSSI that incorporates the influence of climate variability and reservoir regulations provided more reliable assessment of hydrological drought than the traditional SSI.

Watershed Classification Predicts Streamflow Regime and Organic Carbon Dynamics in the Northeast Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest

AbstractWatershed classification has long been a key tool in the hydrological sciences, but few studies have been extended to biogeochemistry. We developed a combined hydro‐biogeochemical classification for watersheds draining to the coastal margin of the Northeast Pacific coastal temperate rainforest (1,443,062 km2), including 2,695 small coastal rivers (SCR) and 10 large continental watersheds. We used cluster analysis to group SCR watersheds into 12 types, based on watershed properties. The most important variables for distinguishing SCR watershed types were evapotranspiration, slope, snowfall, and total precipitation. We used both streamflow and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) measurements from rivers (n = 104 and 90 watersheds respectively) to validate the classification. Watershed types corresponded with broad differences in streamflow regime, mean annual runoff, DOC seasonality, and mean DOC concentration. These links between watershed type and river conditions enabled the first region‐wide empirical characterization of river hydro‐biogeochemistry at the land‐sea margin, spanning extensive ungauged and unsampled areas. We found very high annual runoff (mean > 3,000 mm, n = 10) in three watershed types totaling 59,024 km2 and ranging from heavily glacierized mountain watersheds with high flow in summer to a rain‐fed mountain watershed type with high flow in fall‐winter. DOC hotspots (mean > 4 mg L−1, n = 14) were found in three other watershed types (48,557 km2) with perhumid rainforest climates and less‐mountainous topography. We described four patterns of DOC seasonality linked to watershed hydrology, with fall‐flushing being widespread. Hydro‐biogeochemical watershed classification may be useful for other complex regions with sparse observation networks.

Climatic and anthropogenic drivers of a drying Himalayan river

Abstract. Streamflow regimes are rapidly changing in many regions of the world. Attribution of these changes to specific hydrological processes and their underlying climatic and anthropogenic drivers is essential to formulate an effective water policy. Traditional approaches to hydrologic attribution rely on the ability to infer hydrological processes through the development of catchment-scale hydrological models. However, such approaches are challenging to implement in practice due to limitations in using models to accurately associate changes in observed outcomes with corresponding drivers. Here we present an alternative approach that leverages the method of multiple hypotheses to attribute changes in streamflow in the Upper Jhelum watershed, an important tributary headwater region of the Indus basin, where a dramatic decline in streamflow since 2000 has yet to be adequately attributed to its corresponding drivers. We generate and empirically evaluate a series of alternative and complementary hypotheses concerning distinct components of the water balance. This process allows a holistic understanding of watershed-scale processes to be developed, even though the catchment-scale water balance remains open. Using remote sensing and secondary data, we explore changes in climate, surface water, and groundwater. The evidence reveals that climate, rather than land use, had a considerably stronger influence on reductions in streamflow, both through reduced precipitation and increased evapotranspiration. Baseflow analyses suggest different mechanisms affecting streamflow decline in upstream and downstream regions, respectively. These findings offer promising avenues for future research in the Upper Jhelum watershed, and an alternative approach to hydrological attribution in data-scarce regions.

Assessing water system vulnerabilities under changing climate conditions using different representations of a hydrological system

ABSTRACT Changes in climate are altering the historical characteristics of the streamflow regime and affecting the performance of water systems. Here, the role of representing natural streamflow conditions in quantification of water system vulnerability under changing climate is evaluated in the Oldman River Basin, Canada. Four hydrological models are developed using point- and grid-based climate data and considering lumped and semi-distributed representations of the watershed. These hydrological models are then coupled with a reservoir water allocation model. Using an ensemble of climate model projections fed into these integrated models, changes in the water system’s behaviour are evaluated. Although intensified and earlier peak flows and more critical water deficits are projected, the estimated risks of failure strongly depend on the considered hydrological model configuration. The divergence among models’ projections for water deficit can be as high as 300%. Therefore, usage of all configurations is recommended to revise the reservoir operational policies.

Spatiotemporal Analysis on the Teleconnection of ENSO and IOD to the Stream Flow Regimes in Java, Indonesia

While many studies on the relationship between climate modes and rainfall in Indonesia already exist, studies targeting climate modes’ relationship to streamflow remain rare. This study applied multiple regression (MR) models with polynomial functions to show the teleconnection from the two prominent climate modes—El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—to streamflow regimes in eight rivers in Java, Indonesia. Our MR models using data from 1970 to 2018 successfully show that the September–November (SON) season provides the best predictability of the streamflow regimes. It is also found that the predictability in 1970–1989 was better than that in 1999–2018. This suggests that the relationships between the climate modes and streamflow in Java were changed over periods, which is suspected due to the river basin development. Hence, we found no clear spatial distribution patterns of the predictability, suggesting that the effect of ENSO and IOD are similar for the eight rivers. Additionally, the predictability of the high flow index has been found higher than the low flow index. Having elucidated the flow regimes’ predictability by spatiotemporal analysis, this study gives new insight into the teleconnection of ENSO and IOD to the Indonesian streamflow.

Contextualizing Inflow and Infiltration Within the Streamflow Regime of Urban Watersheds

AbstractDefects in sanitary‐sewer infrastructure enable exchange of large volumes of fluids to and from the environment. The intrusion of rainfall and groundwater into sanitary sewers is called inflow and infiltration (I&I). Though long recognized in the assessment of sewers, the impacts of I&I on streamflow within urban watersheds are unknown. We quantified rainfall‐derived I&I (RDI&I), groundwater infiltration (GI), and total I&I using measured flows within sanitary‐sewer pipes serving four watersheds near Atlanta, Georgia, USA. Flows were monitored in pipes that parallel local stream channels and compared with streamflow measured at nearby gauging sites. Freshwater diverted into the sewer system due to I&I ranged from 24% to 36% of the flow measured within individual pipes. The RDI&I was the smaller component of I&I, ranging from 4.2 to 9.8 mm per year among watersheds. The GI was typically an order of magnitude greater than RDI&I, ranging from 24 to 41 mm per year among watersheds with annual stream discharge of approximately 500 mm. The I&I occurring at specific moments in time commonly represented 0%–20% of the flow measured in the adjacent stream. The enhancement of low flows in streams that could be achievable if I&I were abated ranges from as much as 6%–36% across watersheds. Our discussion presents explanations for the seasonality of I&I and associated impacts on streamflow in urban watersheds, while identifying important sources of remaining uncertainty. Our results support the conclusion that I&I substantially reduces flows in urban streams, especially low flows during dry weather.

Relative Contribution of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities to Streamflow Alterations in Illinois

Rainfed agricultural systems have become more vulnerable to climate change due to their significant dependence on natural precipitation. Drastic changes in precipitation, superimposed with anthropogenic activities, including land use land cover change, can modify the hydrologic response, especially in agricultural watersheds. In this study, Fisher Information and cumulative sum charts (CUMSUM) methods were applied to detect the hydrologic regime shifts in six watersheds in Illinois, USA. The regime shift analysis identified shifts in streamflow regime in three agricultural watersheds, mainly around the 1970s; whereas, no significant change in streamflow was observed for forest-dominated watersheds. Furthermore, the Budyko framework was used to determine the relative contribution in streamflow alterations (i.e., regime shifts in streamflow) for the agricultural watersheds, which evidenced significant shifts in streamflow. The Budyko analysis inferred that alterations in streamflow could be primarily attributed to anthropogenic activities with a comparatively lower contribution from climate in agricultural watersheds. The relative contribution from anthropogenic activities were 71.66%, 81.46%, and 74.04%; whereas, the relative contribution from climate were 28.34%, 18.54%, and 25.96% for the Sangamon, Vermillion, and Skillet agricultural watersheds, respectively. The techniques used and the results obtained from the study would be helpful for future research in assessing the vulnerability and impact of management practices in a highly managed agricultural watershed.

Seasonal differences in future climate and streamflow variation in a watershed of Northern China

Study regionThe Chaohe watershed is a meso-scale watershed in northern China, and the primary reservoir watershed for Beijing's drinking water supply. Study focusThis research aims to evaluate the effects of climate change on future seasonal streamflow regimes and understand the challenges to watershed management. The Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) was applied to investigate the watershed's future hydrographic characteristics under the forcing of the downscaled precipitation and temperature projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three emissions scenarios. New hydrological insights for the regionThe future climate exhibits a drier and warmer trend in the summer monsoon period contrasting with other seasons in the watershed. Precipitation will decrease by 47.5–57.2 mm during the summer monsoon period while increasing annually. Future summer streamflow will decrease accordingly, which is also driven by increased evapotranspiration due to rising temperature. An increased dispersion coefficient of streamflow also indicates more dramatic variations in summer. The annual streamflow magnitude with a 5-year return period increases significantly (p < 0.01), indicating a reduced risk for future water shortages. However, the magnitude of streamflow will decrease with the prolonged return periods (p < 0.01). This study emphasizes the critical significance of predicting the seasonal variability of streamflow and other hydrological property changes at the local scale to provide valuable information for developing adaptive resource management and hazard relief strategies.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin

The effects of climate change projected for 2050 to 2079 relative to the 1968–2014 reference period were evaluated using 39 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario in the Guayas River basin. The monthly normalized precipitation index (SPI) was used in this study to assess the impact of climate change for wet events and droughts from a meteorological perspective. The GR2M model was used to project changes in the streamflow of the Daule River. The climate projection was based on the four rigorously selected models to represent the climate of the study area. On average, an increase in temperature (~2 °C) and precipitation (~6%) is expected. A 7% increase in precipitation would result in a 10% increase in streamflow for flood periods, while an 8% decrease in precipitation could result in approximately a 60% reduction in flow for dry periods. The analysis of droughts shows that they will be more frequent and prolonged in the highlands (Andes) and the middle part of the basin. In the future, wet periods will be less frequent but of greater duration and intensity on the Ecuadorian coast. These results point to future problems such as water deficit in the dry season but also increased streamflow for floods during the wet season. This information should be taken into account in designing strategies for adaptation to climate change.

Impacts of Climate and Anthropogenic Activities on Streamflow Regimes in the Beiluo River, China

Quantitatively assessing the characteristics of river streamflow variation and conducting research on attribution identification are the basis for formulating climate-change response strategies and rational use of water resources. Based on the daily streamflow data of the Zhuangtou Hydrological Station in 1970–2018, this paper analyzes the streamflow changes in the Beiluo River Basin and studies the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the streamflow in this basin. A non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt’s test were used to determine the trend and detect abrupt changes of streamflow and baseflow. The method based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, as well as the double-mass curve of precipitation–streamflow, was established to evaluate the impact of climate change and non-climate factors on annual streamflow. The results reveal a statistically significant downward trend (p = 0.01) in both annual streamflow and baseflow, with the abrupt point year in 1994 and 1988, respectively. When comparing to a modest declining trend in annual average precipitation, we see that the temperature showed a significant upward trend (p = 0.01), whose abrupt point year was 1996. Under the policy of returning farmland to forest, land-use analysis shows that the area of farmland had decreased by 222.4 km2, of which 31.4% was mainly converted into the forestland. By the end of 2015, the area of forestland had increased by 123.4 km2, which has largely caused streamflow decrease. For the method based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, climate change contributed 43.7% of the annual streamflow change, and human activities (mainly refers to LUCC) contributed 56.3%. For the DMC of precipitation–streamflow, the precipitation contributed 9.4%, and non-precipitation factors (mainly refers to human activities) contributed 90.6%, and human activities played a more vital part in driving streamflow reduction in different decades, with a contribution rate of more than 70%. This study is of great practical significance to the planning, management, development and utilization of water resources in basins.

Effects of land-use and -cover changes on streamflow regime in the Brazilian Savannah

Study regionThe study was conducted in the Mortes River Basin (MRB), Mato Grosso State (Brazil), owing to the constant removal of native forest (Brazilian Savannah, popularly known as Cerrado) for agriculture and pasture purposes. Study focusThe hydrological model for large basins (MGB-IPH) was employed to assess the hydrological impacts due to land-use and land-cover scenarios. Three scenarios were built according to the soil use capacity in the MRB (C1: Savannah recovery and agriculture removal by pasture areas, C2: pasture expansion, and C3: agriculture expansion). New Hydrological insights for the regionIn general, the C2 and C3 results show an increase in water availability; however, C2 increases flood risk and C3 tends to worsen drought. These extreme configurations of land use and land cover reveal poor water distribution throughout the year. However, C1 provided the most favorable results, increasing water availability during the dry season without increasing flood risk. The results highlight that anthropic activities already dominate the upper, middle, and lower parts of the basin, representing a risk for sustainable land use. Our hydrological modeling results demonstrated strategies for planning and management to avoid critical scenarios of lack of water in the MRB due to the intensity of soil use beyond its capacity.