Effects of land-use and -cover changes on streamflow regime in the Brazilian Savannah

Abstract

Study regionThe study was conducted in the Mortes River Basin (MRB), Mato Grosso State (Brazil), owing to the constant removal of native forest (Brazilian Savannah, popularly known as Cerrado) for agriculture and pasture purposes. Study focusThe hydrological model for large basins (MGB-IPH) was employed to assess the hydrological impacts due to land-use and land-cover scenarios. Three scenarios were built according to the soil use capacity in the MRB (C1: Savannah recovery and agriculture removal by pasture areas, C2: pasture expansion, and C3: agriculture expansion). New Hydrological insights for the regionIn general, the C2 and C3 results show an increase in water availability; however, C2 increases flood risk and C3 tends to worsen drought. These extreme configurations of land use and land cover reveal poor water distribution throughout the year. However, C1 provided the most favorable results, increasing water availability during the dry season without increasing flood risk. The results highlight that anthropic activities already dominate the upper, middle, and lower parts of the basin, representing a risk for sustainable land use. Our hydrological modeling results demonstrated strategies for planning and management to avoid critical scenarios of lack of water in the MRB due to the intensity of soil use beyond its capacity.