Streamflow Regime Research Articles

Effects of land-use and -cover changes on streamflow regime in the Brazilian Savannah

Study regionThe study was conducted in the Mortes River Basin (MRB), Mato Grosso State (Brazil), owing to the constant removal of native forest (Brazilian Savannah, popularly known as Cerrado) for agriculture and pasture purposes. Study focusThe hydrological model for large basins (MGB-IPH) was employed to assess the hydrological impacts due to land-use and land-cover scenarios. Three scenarios were built according to the soil use capacity in the MRB (C1: Savannah recovery and agriculture removal by pasture areas, C2: pasture expansion, and C3: agriculture expansion). New Hydrological insights for the regionIn general, the C2 and C3 results show an increase in water availability; however, C2 increases flood risk and C3 tends to worsen drought. These extreme configurations of land use and land cover reveal poor water distribution throughout the year. However, C1 provided the most favorable results, increasing water availability during the dry season without increasing flood risk. The results highlight that anthropic activities already dominate the upper, middle, and lower parts of the basin, representing a risk for sustainable land use. Our hydrological modeling results demonstrated strategies for planning and management to avoid critical scenarios of lack of water in the MRB due to the intensity of soil use beyond its capacity.

Streamflow regime of a lake‐stream system based on long‐term data from a high‐density hydrometric network

AbstractNorthern landscapes are dominated by a mosaic of lakes and streams, yet only a limited number of studies have explored how these lake‐stream networks influence streamflow regimes. In order to gain further insight into the hydrologic behaviour of lake‐stream systems, we conducted a study using long‐term streamflow data to investigate the annual‐, seasonal‐ and event‐scale streamflow regimes of a lake‐stream network at the Turkey Lakes Watershed (TLW) in central Ontario, Canada. Streamflow metrics were compared for seven lake and 12 no‐lake catchments within the TLW, in addition to 14 no‐lake catchments from other forested landscapes. It was difficult to attribute patterns in annual streamflow regimes to the influence of lakes due to the confounding influence of catchment size; however, streamflow regimes appeared to be less flashy at locations with more lake influence. In addition, lake catchments showed high similarity in streamflow regimes across seasons, whereas no‐lake catchments showed more similarity to lake catchments during wet seasons but less similarity during dry seasons. Event‐scale streamflow regimes further downstream from lake outlets were associated with greater increases in peakflow response and hydrograph rise rate following rain events than locations closer to lake outlets. Antecedent conditions were also important for both the peakflow response and rise rate, but less so than the amount of rainfall during the event. Variability in streamflow across lake‐stream networks appears to be driven by interactions between delayed contributions from lakes and relatively rapid runoff contributions from hillslopes and tributaries without lakes. In addition, streamflow regimes are influenced by temporal changes in lake storage deficits, which are a function of lake and catchment properties, as well as hydrometeorological conditions. Our results highlight that a network‐scale perspective that incorporates lakes and streams is needed to understand how these landscapes will hydrologically respond to environmental change.

Changes in streamflow regimes and their responses to different soil and water conservation measures in the Loess Plateau watersheds, China

AbstractInvestigating the changes in streamflow regimes in response to various influencing factors contributes to our understanding of the mechanisms of hydrological processes in different watersheds and to water resource management strategies. This study examined streamflow regime changes by applying the indicators of hydrologic alteration method and eco‐flow metrics to daily runoff data (1965–2016) from the Sandu, Hulu and Dali Rivers on the Chinese Loess Plateau, and then determined their responses to terracing, afforestation and damming. The Budyko water balance equation and the double mass curve method were used to separate the impacts of climate change and human activities on the mean discharge changes. The results showed that the terraced and dammed watersheds exhibited significant decreases in annual runoff. All hydrologic metrics indicated that the highest degree of hydrologic alteration was in the Sandu River watershed (terraced), where the monthly and extreme flows reduced significantly. In contrast, the annual eco‐deficit increased significantly, indicating the highest reduction in streamflow among the three watersheds. The regulation of dams and reservoirs in the Dali River watershed has altered the flow regime, and obvious decreases in the maximum flow and slight increases in the minimum flow and baseflow indices were observed. In the Hulu River watershed (afforested), the monthly flow and extreme flows decreased slightly and were categorized as low‐degree alteration, indicating that the long‐term delayed effects of afforestation on hydrological processes. The magnitude of the eco‐flow metrics varied with the alteration of annual precipitation. Climate change contributed 67.47% to the runoff reduction in the Hulu River watershed, while human activities played predominant roles in reducing runoff in the Sandu and Dali River watersheds. The findings revealed distinct patterns and causes of streamflow regime alteration due to different conservation measures, emphasizing the need to optimize the spatial allocation of measures to control soil erosion and utilize water resources on the Loess Plateau.

Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations

Future flood and drought risks have been predicted to transition from moderate to high levels at global warmings of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. However, these results were obtained by approximating the equilibrium climate using transient simulations with steadily warming. This approach was recently criticised due to the warmer global land temperature and higher mean precipitation intensities of the transient climate in comparison with the equilibrium climate. Therefore, it is unclear whether floods and droughts projected under a transient climate can be systematically substituted for those occurring in an equilibrated climate. Here, by employing a large ensemble of global hydrological models (HMs) forced by global climate models, we assess the validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations. Differences in flood characteristics under transient and equilibrium climates could be largely ascribed to natural variability, indicating that the floods derived from a transient climate reasonably approximate the floods expected in an equally warm, equilibrated climate. By contrast, significant differences in drought intensity between transient and equilibrium climates were detected over a larger global land area than expected from natural variability. Despite the large differences among HMs in representing the low streamflow regime, we found that the drought intensities occurring under a transient climate may not validly represent the intensities in an equally warm equilibrated climate for approximately 6.7% of the global land area.

A global algorithm for identifying changing streamflow regimes: application to Canadian natural streams (1966–2010)

Abstract. Climate change affects natural streamflow regimes globally. To assess alterations in streamflow regimes, typically temporal variations in one or a few streamflow characteristics are taken into account. This approach, however, cannot see simultaneous changes in multiple streamflow characteristics, does not utilize all the available information contained in a streamflow hydrograph, and cannot describe how and to what extent streamflow regimes evolve from one to another. To address these gaps, we conceptualize streamflow regimes as intersecting spectrums that are formed by multiple streamflow characteristics. Accordingly, the changes in a streamflow regime should be diagnosed through gradual, yet continuous changes in an ensemble of streamflow characteristics. To incorporate these key considerations, we propose a generic algorithm to first classify streams into a finite set of intersecting fuzzy clusters. Accordingly, by analyzing how the degrees of membership to each cluster change in a given stream, we quantify shifts from one regime to another. We apply this approach to the data, obtained from 105 natural Canadian streams, during the period of 1966 to 2010. We show that natural streamflow in Canada can be categorized into six regime types, with clear hydrological and geographical distinctions. Analyses of trends in membership values show that alterations in natural streamflow regimes vary among different regions. Having said that, we show that in more than 80 % of considered streams, there is a dominant regime shift that can be attributed to simultaneous changes in streamflow characteristics, some of which have remained previously unknown. Our study not only introduces a new globally relevant algorithm for identifying changing streamflow regimes but also provides a fresh look at streamflow alterations in Canada, highlighting complex and multifaceted impacts of climate change on streamflow regimes in cold regions.

Multiple Indicators of Extreme Changes in Snow-Dominated Streamflow Regimes, Yakima River Basin Region, USA

Snow plays a major role in the hydrological cycle. Variations in snow duration and timing can have a negative impact on water resources. Excluding predicted changes in snowmelt rates and amounts could result in deleterious infrastructure, military mission, and asset impacts at military bases across the US. A change in snowpack can also lead to water shortages, which in turn can affect the availability of irrigation water. We performed trend analyses of air temperature, snow water equivalent (SWE) at 22 SNOTEL stations, and streamflow extremes for selected rivers in the snow-dependent and heavily irrigated Yakima River Basin (YRB) located in the Pacific Northwest US. There was a clear trend of increasing air temperature in this study area over a 30 year period (water years 1991–2020). All stations indicated an increase in average air temperatures for December (0.97 °C/decade) and January (1.12 °C/decade). There was also an upward trend at most stations in February (0.28 °C/decade). In December–February, the average air temperatures were 0.82 °C/decade. From these trends, we estimate that, by 2060, the average air temperatures for December–February at most (82%) stations will be above freezing. Furthermore, analysis of SWE from selected SNOTEL stations indicated a decreasing trend in historical SWE, and a shift to an earlier peak SWE was also assumed to be occurring due of the shorter snow duration. Decreasing trends in snow duration, rain-on-snow, and snowmelt runoff also resulted from snow modeling simulations of the YRB and the nearby area. We also observed a shift in the timing of snowmelt-driven peak streamflow, as well as a statistically significant increase in winter maximum streamflow and decrease in summer maximum and minimum streamflow trends by 2099. From the streamflow trends and complementary GEV analysis, we show that the YRB basin is a system in transition with earlier peak flows, lower snow-driven maximum streamflow, and higher rainfall-driven summer streamflow. This study highlights the importance of looking at changes in snow across multiple indicators to develop future infrastructure and planning tools to better adapt and mitigate changes in extreme events.

Simulating the cumulative effects of potential open-pit mining and climate change on streamflow and water quality in a mountainous watershed

Land use and climate change effects on water quality and water quantity are well documented globally. Most studies evaluate individual factors and effects, without considering the interrelationships between land use, climate, water quality, and water quantity. This study provides an integrated assessment of the cumulative effects of climate change and potential open-pit coal mining on streamflow and water quality in the Oldman River Basin, Alberta, Canada. A hydrological model was developed that incorporates estimates of future selenium loading, water use, and projected changes in air temperature and precipitation to evaluate changes in water quantity and quality. Model results indicate that estimated selenium concentrations, absent any attenuation, are likely to be substantially above most water quality guidelines and strong reliance on mitigation technologies would be required to maintain adequate water quality in the watershed if mine development were to take place. Streamflow is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions, and modelling results suggest there are likely to be increases in winter flow, earlier peak flow, and reductions in flow during the summer and fall months under the climate change scenarios. These changes can have direct impacts on the degree of selenium dilution and more generally on aquatic habitat, ecosystem health, and socioeconomic needs. This study highlights that water management decisions may mis-evaluate the risks and tradeoffs of future mine development if they fail to adequately consider climate change and changing streamflow regimes and their indirect effects on water quality.

Assessment of Future Risks of Seasonal Municipal Water Shortages Across North America

While anthropogenic climate change poses a risk to freshwater resources across the globe through increases in evapotranspiration and temperature, it is essential to quantify the risks at local scales in response to projected trends in both freshwater supply and demand. In this study, we use empirical modeling to estimate the risks of municipal water shortages across North America by assessing the effects of climate change on streamflow and urban water demand. In addition, we aim to quantify uncertainties in both supply and demand predictions. Using streamflow data from both the US and Canada, we first cluster 4,290 streamflow gauges based on hydrograph similarity and geographical location. We develop a set of multiple linear regression (MLR) models, as a simplified analog to a distributed hydrological model, with minimum input data requirements. These MLR models are calibrated to simulate streamflow for the 1993–2012 period using the ERA5 climate reanalysis data. The models are then used to predict streamflow for the 2080–2099 period in response to two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from five global climate models. Another set of MLR models are constructed to project seasonal changes in municipal water consumption for the clustered domains. The models are calibrated against collected data on urban water use from 47 cities across the study region. For both streamflow and water use, we quantified uncertainties in our predictions using stochastic weather generators and Monte Carlo methods. Our study shows the strong predictive power of the MLR models for simulating both streamflow regimes (Kling-Gupta efficiency >0.5) and urban water use (correlation coefficient ≈0.7) in most regions. Under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) emissions scenario, the West Coast, the Southwest, and the Deep South (South-Central US and the Deep South) have the highest risk of municipal water shortages. Across the whole domain, the risk is the highest in the summer season when demand is high. We find that the uncertainty in projected changes to the water demand is substantially lower than the uncertainty in the projected changes to the supply. Regions with the highest risk of water shortages should begin to investigate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Modeling implications of climate induced streamflow changes on the fish species of the Soan River, Pakistan

Climate change has significantly impacted the hydrological cycle in the rivers of Pakistan and the streamflow regimes of different rivers have witnessed noticeable flow alteration. These changes in streamflow affect aquatic biodiversity (e.g., freshwater fish species) and the productivity of freshwater ecosystems. This study, therefore, evaluates the streamflow alterations and their impacts on the fish species at the upstream and downstream of the Soan River in Pakistan. The hydrological model HBV light was calibrated and validated for both up- (Chirah) and down- (Dhoke Pathan) stream gauged stations. The model was then forced with an ensemble of NEX-GDDP Global Climate Models (GCMs) to simulate historic and future streamflow. Afterwards, changes in the streamflow characteristics for two future periods against a historic one were assessed. Different ecologically relevant streamflow indices were used. The base flow at upstream and downstream was projected to increase under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios for mid and end of century periods. Under the RCP 8.5, base flow was projected to increase with more inter-annual variability at upstream station, and changes depicted less variability for downstream under both emission scenarios. A number of high flow pulses were projected to decrease under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in both future periods for upstream and downstream; however, high variability was depicted for upstream than downstream area. The duration of high flow pulses was also projected to increase under the RCP 8.5 for end of century period for both upstream and downstream. These projections of streamflow characteristics may have a marked (positive) influence on the habitat and ecological conditions for the fish species of the Soan River.

Unravelling runoff processes in Andean basins in northern Ecuador through hydrological signatures

AbstractStreamflow is the runoff response integrated in space and time over a complex system involving climatic and catchment physiographic factors. In the Andes, accelerating runoff process understanding is hampered by the inability to quantify heterogeneity of surface and subsurface catchment properties. Here, we present a statistical approach based on regression models and correlation analysis that links hydrological signatures and catchment properties to unveil processes in a set of volcanic mountain catchments (latitude 0°30'N) in Ecuador. The catchments represent form and function diversity in the same hydrological unit. We found that despite of similar atmospheric‐water inputs the water yield in the north‐east region is about 5× larger than in the south‐west region and their flow regimes are asymmetric. The soil‐bedrock interface and lithology exert a first‐order control on hydrologic partitioning, and this allowed us to hypothesize two hydrological mechanisms. Firstly, in the north‐east region, the perennial streamflow is associated with seasonal rainfall patterns, and subsequent drainage processes taking place at the surface and subsurface level. The amount of streamflow is related to landform characteristics, high canopy density and root development of forest as well as water holding capacity of organic soils. From a mechanistic standpoint, the low concentration time, steep slopes and shallow infiltration limited by high‐consolidated deposits of sedimentary and volcanics suggest a lateral movement of the flow. Secondly, in the south‐west region the streamflow regime is mostly groundwater‐dependent and it becomes seasonally enhanced by rainfall. Larger seasonal variations of precipitation and temperature result into enhanced evapotranspiration in the drier months, limiting shallow soil infiltration. Under the soil layers, highly permeable pyroclastic deposits and andesitic lavas promote deep percolation. The results highlight the degree of dissimilarity of hydrological processes in Andean settings, but unravelling their complexity seems plausible using streamflow signatures and causal explanatory models.

Future changes in snowpack will impact seasonal runoff and low flows in Czechia

Study RegionCentral Europe, Czechia. Study FocusMountains are referred to as “water towers” because they substantially affect the hydrology of downstream areas. However, snow storages will decrease in the future due to the increase in air temperature which will affect streamflow regime. Main objectives of this study were 1) to simulate the future changes in snow for a large set of mountain catchments in Czechia, reflecting a wide range of climate projections and 2) to analyse how the snow changes will affect groundwater recharge, streamflow seasonality and low flows in the future. New Hydrological InsightsThe future hydrological projections showed a decrease in annual maximum SWE by 30 %–70 % in the study area until the end of the 21st century. Additionally, snowmelt was found to occur on average 3–4 weeks earlier. The results showed the large variability between individual climate chains and indicated that the increase in air temperature causing the decrease in snowfall might be partly compensated by the increase in winter precipitation. Changes in snowpack will cause the highest streamflow during melting season to occur one month earlier, in addition to lower spring runoff volumes due to lower snowmelt inputs. The future climate projections leading to overall dry conditions in summer are associated with both the lowest summer precipitation and seasonal snowpack. The expected lower snow storages might therefore contribute to more extreme low flow periods.

Stream drying bioindication in Central Europe: A Biodrought Index accuracy assessment

With ongoing climate change and increasing water resource pressures, the knowledge and predictability of stream drying is essential for water management. However, the hydrological data for assessing the flow regime of temporary streams are often non-existent or scarce. The flow regime strongly affects stream ecological functioning and ecosystem processes. A few biological indices have been developed in the past decade to assess community responses to flow intermittency. One of them – the Biodrought Index, used to recognise antecedent stream drying based on benthic invertebrate assemblage composition – was initially intended for deployment in the Czech Republic. Here we report on a test of how reliably this index can be used in Central Europe. We used five independent data sets of macroinvertebrate samples collected during the flowing phase in five countries: Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary and Slovakia. Altogether 89, 26 and 220 samples were assessed from intermittent, near-perennial and perennial sites, respectively. Each sample was assigned to one of three flow intermittence categories according to the Biodrought Index and then compared with the flow regime recognised by hydrological observations and gauging station data. In most cases, the Biodrought Index clearly reflected the previous flow state and identified streamflow cessation. The misidentification rate between intermittent and perennial samples was very low, ranging from 0% to 6%. Classification rate of correctly recognised samples ranged from 54% to 93% and misclassification rate between near-perennial and perennial/intermittent category was 6% to 46%. Overall, this study confirmed the robustness and the reliability of the Biodrought Index, which proved to be an effective tool in assessing the recent hydrological history of small and medium-sized streams. The index can improve the interpretation of the macroinvertebrate assemblage data collected for ecological status assessment, can help to evaluate the effectiveness of river restoration projects or identify water resource pressures. Hence, we consider the Biodrought Index a useful method for indicating antecedent stream drying in the extensive area of Central Europe and thus helpful in monitoring and managing river ecosystems.

Frontiers of (Pareto) Optimal and Sustainable Water Management for Hydropower and Ecology

River regulation alters the natural flow regime of streams with consequent impacts on terrestrial and aquatic habitats of the riparian zone. The severity of such impacts can be modulated by changing the redistribution rules at water intakes and reservoirs. Contrary to minimal-flow policies, non-proportional and proportional redistribution policies result in variable environmental flow releases, namely Dynamic Environmental Flows (DEFs), which improve the global (i.e., ecological and economic) efficiency of water use practice, e.g., for energy production. DEF assessment is based on different indicators. However, the choice and aggregation method of different hydrological and fish habitat indicators affects the assessment of the global power plant performance, i.e., the Frontier of efficient solutions (sensu Pareto). This study investigates DEF assessment, and shows the extent to which the choice and method of aggregation of different indicators impacts the Frontier of Pareto-efficient solutions. The findings are supported by six case studies of hydropower practice that differ in terms of river morphology, energy production amount and technique. The relative importance of several types of indicators is examined as is their influence on optimal and sustainable water allocation solutions that lie on the Pareto Frontier. The analysis shows that DEFs arising from either proportional or non-proportional redistribution rules can positively impact strategies of sustainable management of freshwater resources.

Evaluating the tradeoff between hydropower benefit and ecological interest under climate change: How will the water-energy-ecosystem nexus evolve in the upper Mekong basin?

Hydropower plant operation alters natural streamflow regimes, which leads to tradeoff between hydropower benefits and the needs of downstream river ecosystems. This study proposes a novel approach for evaluating how hydropower-ecology tradeoff will evolve under future climate change based on Pareto optimal fronts, and demonstrated its efficacy using a case study of the cascade hydropower plants and downstream river ecosystems of the upper Mekong basin (UMB), a representative transboundary river basin. Future climate projections from multiple global climate models (GCMs) are used. Results show that, although GCMs project a future overall increase in streamflow, the hydropower-ecology conflict will likely be exacerbated by increased streamflow variability. Nearly one third of the GCMs indicate the alleviated conflict between hydropower and ecosystems, one third show little apparent change, and the final third show aggravated conflicts. According to the pessimistic GCMs, maintaining ecological impact at historical levels in the future could result in a hydropower deficit for which thermal power would need to compensate, generating additional 1.33 MMT CO2e in greenhouse gas emissions per year. These results reveal the potential challenges facing hydropower and ecological development in the UMB in the future, and emphasize the importance of developing adaptive mitigation techniques under climate change.

Sensitivity analysis of hydrological processes to perturbed climate in a southern boreal forest basin

Hydrological processes over and through frozen and unfrozen ground were simulated in the well instrumented boreal forest basin of White Gull Creek, Saskatchewan, Canada using a model created using the flexible Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling (CRHM) platform. The CRHM-created Boreal Hydrology Model was structured and initially parameterized using decades of process hydrology research in the southern boreal forest with minor parameter calibration, and generally produced quite good performance on simultaneously reproducing the measurements of runoff, snow water equivalent (SWE), soil liquid water content and eddy correlation flux tower observations of evapotranspiration (ET) over two decades. To examine the sensitivity of basin hydrology to perturbed climate inputs, air temperature (T) inputs were set up by linear increments in the reference observation of up to +6 ℃, and precipitation (P) inputs were generated by multiplying the reference observed P from 70% to 130%. The model results showed that the basin hydrological variables showed quite different sensitivities to perturbations of P and T. The volume of annual runoff and the annual runoff coefficient increased more rapidly with rising P, at rates of 31% and 16% per 10% increase in P, but decreased by only 3.8% and 4.7% per 1 ℃ of warming. Annual ET increased rapidly with temperature, by 7% per 1 ℃ of warming and therefore drove the streamflow volumetric changes with warming, but increased only 1% per 10% increase in P. Perturbations of P and T had distinctively different influences on the streamflow regime. Increased P enhanced the intra- and inter-annual variabilities of basin runoff, reduced the relative contribution of winter runoff to annual runoff and increased the relative contribution of summer runoff; whilst rising T resulted in the inverse changes in the streamflow regime. Effects of warming on some hydrological processes could be compensated for to varying degrees by the effects of increases in P. Reductions in the annual runoff volume and runoff coefficient caused by warming up to 6 ℃ could be compensated for by increases of <20% in P. However, the maximum increase in P (+30%) examined could only compensate for the changes in snow processes caused by warming of less than 4 ℃ and snow-cover duration decreases with 1 ℃ warming could not be compensated for by any precipitation increase considered. These results inform the vulnerability of boreal forest hydrology to the first-order changes in P and T and provide guidance for further climate impact assessments for hydrology in the southern boreal forest in Canada.

Hydrological response to warm and dry weather: do glaciers compensate?

Abstract. Warm and dry summer days can lead to low streamflow due to a lack of rainfall and increased evaporation. In glacierized catchments, however, such periods can lead to a very different hydrological response as glaciers can supply an increased amount of meltwater, thereby compensating for the rainfall deficits. Here, we analyzed glacier-fed streamflow responses to warm and dry (WD) periods in long-term streamflow observations (&gt;50 years). WD events during summer (June–September) were analyzed for catchments with varying glacier cover in western Canada, southwestern Norway, and the European Alps. WD events were defined by days with temperatures above a daily varying threshold, based on the 80th percentile of the respective long-term temperature data for that day in the year, and daily precipitation sums below a fixed threshold (&lt;2 mm d−1) for a minimum duration of 7 d. Streamflow responses to these WD events were expressed as level of compensation (C) and were calculated as the event streamflow relative to the long-term streamflow regime. C≥100 % indicates that increased melt and other catchment storages could compensate, or even overcompensate, the rainfall deficit and increased evaporation. Results showed a wide range of compensation levels, both between catchments and between different WD events in a particular catchment. C was, in general, higher than 100 % for catchments with a relative glacier cover higher than 5 %–15 %, depending on region and month. June was the month with highest compensation levels, but this was likely more influenced by snowmelt than by glacier melt. For WD events in September, C was still higher than 100 % in many catchments, which likely indicates the importance of glacier melt as a streamflow contributor in late summer. There was a considerable range in C of different WD events for groups of catchments with similar glacier cover. This could be partly explained by antecedent conditions, such as the amount of snow fallen in the previous winter and the streamflow conditions 30 d before the WD event. Some decreasing trends in C were evident, especially for catchments in western Canada and the European Alps. Overall, our results suggest that glaciers do not compensate straightforwardly, and the range in compensation levels is large. The different streamflow components – glacier, snow and rain – and their variations are important for the buffering capacity and the compensating effect of glaciers in these high mountain water systems.

Relating environmental variables with aquatic community structure in an agricultural/urban coldwater stream

BackgroundUrban areas are often built along large rivers and surrounded by agricultural land. This may lead to small tributary streams that have agricultural headwaters and urbanized lower reaches. Our study objectives assessed are as follows: (1) landscape, geomorphic, and water quality variables that best explained variation in aquatic communities and their integrity in a stream system following this agricultural-to-urban land use gradient; (2) ways this land use gradient caused aquatic communities to differ from what would be expected for an idealized natural stream or other longitudinal gradients; and (3) whether the impacts of this land use gradient on aquatic communities would grow larger in a downstream direction through the agricultural and urban developments. Our study area was an impaired coldwater stream in Michigan, USA.ResultsMany factors structured the biological communities along the agricultural-to-urban land use gradient. Instream woody debris had the strongest relationship with EPT (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) abundance and richness and were most common in the lower, urbanized watershed. Fine streambed substrate had the strongest relationship with Diptera taxa and surface air breather macroinvertebrates and was dominant in agricultural headwaters. Fish community assemblage was influenced largely by stream flow and temperature regimes, while poor fish community integrity in lower urban reaches could be impacted by geomorphology and episodic urban pollution events. Scraping macroinvertebrates were most abundant in deforested, first-order agricultural headwaters, while EPT macroinvertebrate richness was the highest downstream of agricultural areas within the urban zone that had extensive forest buffers.ConclusionEnvironmental variables and aquatic communities would often not conform with what we would expect from an idealized natural stream. EPT richness improved downstream of agricultural areas. This shows promise for the recovery of aquatic systems using well-planned management in watersheds with this agricultural-to-urban land use pattern. Small patches of forest can be the key to conserving aquatic biodiversity in urbanized landscapes. These findings are valuable to an international audience of researchers and water resource managers who study stream systems following this common agricultural-to-urban land use gradient, the ecological communities of which may not conform with what is generally known about land use impacts to streams.

Impacts of regional climate change on hydrological drought characteristics in headwaters of the Ore Mountains

AbstractChanges in the frequency, magnitude, and seasonality of hydrological extremes are one of the expected consequences of climate change. Recent years suggested an increasing risk of drought occurrence and restricted water supply even in usually humid mountain regions. Our research is focused on the evaluation of regional climate change and its effect on hydrological drought characteristics in headwater areas in the Ore Mountains along the Czech/German border. The main aim was to evaluate and compare streamflow regime changes and trends in long‐term hydrological and climatic time series within selected sub‐catchments of the Svatava (Zwota) River, the Rolava River, and the Načetínský Brook (Natzschung). A comparative statistical analysis for the 1967–2018 period was performed using various homogeneity and trend tests. Longer runoff time series with earlier beginnings were examined for two catchments as well. The results pointed to significant, continuous warming in the region which is accompanied by decreasing trends in snow cover depths in the colder half of the year. Drought indices based on runoff data were derived in the Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations (IHA 7.1) software environment. The seasonality of hydrological drought occurrence changed markedly after 1992, when most severe drought events started to concentrate between August and October in the study area. Increasing trends in deficit volumes were found in two catchments characterized by lower elevation. Furthermore, there was a significant decrease in average and minimum flows in spring and summer months in all catchments observed between 1967 and 2018 despite relatively stable amounts of precipitation and land cover.

The spatial extent of hydrological and landscape changes across the mountains and prairies of Canada in the Mackenzie and Nelson River basins based on data from a warm-season time window

Abstract. East of the Continental Divide in the cold interior of Western Canada, the Mackenzie and Nelson River basins have some of the world's most extreme and variable climates, and the warming climate is changing the landscape, vegetation, cryosphere, and hydrology. Available data consist of streamflow records from a large number (395) of natural (unmanaged) gauged basins, where flow may be perennial or temporary, collected either year-round or during only the warm season, for a different series of years between 1910 and 2012. An annual warm-season time window where observations were available across all stations was used to classify (1) streamflow regime and (2) seasonal trend patterns. Streamflow trends were compared to changes in satellite Normalized Difference Indices. Clustering using dynamic time warping, which overcomes differences in streamflow timing due to latitude or elevation, identified 12 regime types. Streamflow regime types exhibit a strong connection to location; there is a strong distinction between mountains and plains and associated with ecozones. Clustering of seasonal trends resulted in six trend patterns that also follow a distinct spatial organization. The trend patterns include one with decreasing streamflow, four with different patterns of increasing streamflow, and one without structure. The spatial patterns of trends in mean, minimum, and maximum of Normalized Difference Indices of water and snow (NDWI and NDSI) were similar to each other but different from Normalized Difference Index of vegetation (NDVI) trends. Regime types, trend patterns, and satellite indices trends each showed spatially coherent patterns separating the Canadian Rockies and other mountain ranges in the west from the poorly defined drainage basins in the east and north. Three specific areas of change were identified: (i) in the mountains and cold taiga-covered subarctic, streamflow and greenness were increasing while wetness and snowcover were decreasing, (ii) in the forested Boreal Plains, particularly in the mountainous west, streamflows and greenness were decreasing but wetness and snowcover were not changing, and (iii) in the semi-arid to sub-humid agricultural Prairies, three patterns of increasing streamflow and an increase in the wetness index were observed. The largest changes in streamflow occurred in the eastern Canadian Prairies.

Streamflow Changes in the Headwater Area of Yellow River, NE Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1955–2040 and Their Implications

Human activities have substantially altered present-day flow regimes. The Headwater Area of the Yellow River (HAYR, above Huanghe’yan Hydrological Station, with a catchment area of 21,000 km2 and an areal extent of alpine permafrost at ~86%) on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Southwest China has been undergoing extensive changes in streamflow regimes and groundwater dynamics, permafrost degradation, and ecological deterioration under a warming climate. In general, hydrological gauges provide reliable flow records over many decades and these data are extremely valuable for assessment of changing rates and trends of streamflow. In 1998–2003, the damming of the Yellow River by the First Hydropower Station of the HAYR complicated the examination of the relations between hydroclimatic variables and streamflow dynamics. In this study, the monthly streamflow rate of the Yellow River at Huanghe’yan is reconstructed for the period of 1955–2019 using the double mass curve method, and then the streamflow at Huagnhe’yan is forecasted for the next 20 years (2020–2040) using the Elman neural network time-series method. The dam construction (1998–2000) has caused a reduction of annual streamflow by 53.5–68.4%, and a more substantial reduction of 71.8–94.4% in the drier years (2003–2005), in the HAYR. The recent removal of the First Hydropower Station of the HAYR dam (September 2018) has boosted annual streamflow by 123–210% (2018–2019). Post-correction trends of annual maximum (QMax) and minimum (QMin) streamflow rates and the ratio of the QMax/QMin of the Yellow River in the HAYR (0.18 and 0.03 m3·s−1·yr−1 and −0.04 yr−1, respectively), in comparison with those of precorrection values (−0.11 and −0.004 m3·s−1·yr−1 and 0.001 yr−1, respectively), have more truthfully revealed a relatively large hydrological impact of degrading permafrost. Based on the Elman neural network model predictions, over the next 20 years, the increasing trend of flow in the HAYR would generally accelerate at a rate of 0.42 m3·s−1·yr−1. Rising rates of spring (0.57 m3·s−1·yr−1) and autumn (0.18 m3·s−1·yr−1) discharge would see the benefits from an earlier snow-melt season and delayed arrival of winter conditions. This suggests a longer growing season, which indicates ameliorating phonology, soil nutrient availability, and hydrothermal environments for vegetation in the HAYR. These trends for hydrological and ecological changes in the HAYR may potentially improve ecological safety and water supplies security in the HAYR and downstream Yellow River basins.