Flood Risk Reduction Strategies Research Articles

Deciphering spatial-temporal dynamics of flood exposure in the United States,

Extracting baseline information on flood exposure and its temporal evolution is essential to formulate flood risk reduction strategies. At present, comprehensive, long-term spatial-temporal flood exposure research in the United States is lacking. The objective of the study is to evaluate county-wide flood exposure in the US and unravel its spatial-temporal dynamics from 2001 to 2019 to answer three research questions via hypothesis testing. First, how have human settlement areas exposed to flood threats in the US changed over the past two decades? Second, has the occurrence of floods and their resulting damage influenced the growth of developed areas in flood zones? Third, do disparities exist in the sensitivity to flood threats among urban-rural communities? Results show that the overall rate of development in flood zones in the contiguous United States has steadily decreased from 2001 to 2019. The Local Moran's I analysis discovers pockets of emerging, expanding, shrinking, and changing clusters of communities that show a rapid increase or decrease of developed areas within flood zones over time. Most counties that experienced more frequent flooding events demonstrate greater responsiveness to flood hazards by avoiding development in flood zones. Finally, urban communities exhibit a higher exposure and sensitivity to flood hazards compared to rural areas.

Utilizing the HEC-HMS Model for Hydrological Modelling of the Rambiara Watershed: Rainfall and Runoff Estimation

Abstract: Hydrological modelling and flood prediction are essential components of the Rambiara watershed's water resource management. To improve disaster preparedness and reduce the danger of flooding in the area, the effectiveness of the HEC HMS model in flood forecasting must be assessed. In this study, various techniques for estimating rainfall are examined, and a customized hydrological model tailored to the hydrological complexities of the Rambiara watershed is developed. The goal of this project is to provide practical insights for better flood risk reduction and water resource management through the integration of cutting-edge modelling tools and rigorous analysis. This work advances our knowledge of watershed dynamics and provides guidance for sustainable water resource planning projects in the Rambiara watershed and beyond by thoroughly examining precipitation patterns and hydrological processes. In addition, the research takes into account a number of factors related to flood behaviour, such as determining places that are vulnerable to flooding, analysing the size of floods, and estimating how frequently they occur. By taking a holistic approach, it is possible to gain a thorough understanding of the dynamics of flooding in the Rambiara watershed, which paves the way for the development of efficient flood risk management techniques. This study looks into the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall in the Rambiara watershed in addition to research on floods. Through the comparison of several methods for estimating rainfall, including deterministic and geostatistical approaches, the study offers valuable insights into the precision and dependability of rainfall data, which are essential for hydrological modelling and flood forecasting. The hydrological processes of the Rambiara watershed can be more accurately represented by creating a bespoke hydrological model with the HEC HMS program. Informed decision-making and proactive flood risk reduction strategies are made possible by the study's model calibration and validation, which guarantee the model's dependability in simulating runoff and forecasting flood events. Overall, this study advances our knowledge of flood dynamics in the Rambiara watershed and advances hydrological modelling tools. The goal of this study is to promote sustainability and resilience in the face of hydrological hazards by offering practical insights for managing water resources and reducing the danger of flooding.

Geographically induced and the spatially differentiated dimension of flood vulnerability in Greater Kumasi Metropolis, Ghana

ABSTRACT Over the past several years, the constant flooding events and their lethal consequences have reignited the debate on the need for vulnerability assessment of flood-prone communities in urban areas as a flood risk mitigation and adaptation measure. This article focuses on Ghana and uses remotely sensed high-resolution data, and community mapping to assess the flood vulnerability of 442 urban communities of the Greater Kumasi Metropolitan Area (GKMA). The Compound Topographic Index and the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission were used systematically. The results showed that 43% of communities were found in low-risk areas, 30% were in medium-risk areas, and 27% were in high-risk areas. Flood intensity and frequencies were found to be dependent on location relative to slopes and undulating terrain. We argue that the identified flood hazard communities should guide policymakers in proffering specific and targeted interventions toward flood risk reduction and community resilience strategies

Assessing Multidimensional Vulnerability of Rural Areas to Flooding: An Index-Based Approach

Vulnerability assessment is essential for understanding and launching effective flood risk reduction strategies. This study aimed to examine the vulnerability of flood-prone rural communities in southern Punjab, Pakistan to external shocks. The concept of vulnerability encompasses a range of dimensions, including physical, social, institutional, environmental, economic, and attitudinal. Using a composite index method, indices were developed for each dimension and combined to create a multidimensional measure of vulnerability. A sample of 365 communities was selected using the Yamane sampling technique, and data were collected through a questionnaire containing 65 indicators across all dimensions. Descriptive statistics and ANOVA tests were used to analyze the data. The results show that communities near the Chenab River had higher attitudinal and institutional vulnerability compared to other communities. High attitudinal vulnerabilities were associated with poorly perceived flood risks and low preparedness measures, whereas institutional vulnerabilities were driven by conventional flood protection strategies, lack of institutional trust, and lack of flood risk awareness. This research provides insights into the various components of vulnerability in flood-prone rural communities in Pakistan and demonstrates a useful methodology that can be applied to other disasters at different spatial scales.

Flood Risk Assessment of Areas under Urbanization in Chongqing, China, by Integrating Multi-Models

In the context of urbanization, frequent flood event have become the most common natural disasters, posing a significant challenge to human society. Considering the effects of urbanization on flood risk is critical for flood risk reduction and reasonable land planning strategies at the city scale. This study proposes an integrated approach based on remote sensing data using CA, Markov, and simplified hydrodynamic (FloodMap) models to accurately and effectively assess flood risk under urbanization. Taking Chongqing City as a case study, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial variations in land use/land cover (LULC) in 2010, 2015, and 2018 and predicts the LULC for 2030, based on historic trends. Flood risk is assessed by combining the hazard, exposure, and modified vulnerability. The results suggest that the area of built-up land will increase significantly from 19.56% in 2018 to 25.21% in 2030. From 2010 to 2030, the area of medium and high inundation depths will increase by 10 and 16 times, respectively. Flood damage varies remarkably according to the LULC and return period. The expected annual damage (EAD) has been estimated to increase from USD 68 million in 2010 to USD 200 million in 2030. Flood risk is proportional to population and is significantly inversely proportional to socioeconomic level. The approach used here can provide a comprehensive understanding of flood risk and is significant for land-use policymaking and the management of flood control facilities.

Flood Risk Reduction Strategy With Vertical Drainage In Medan City, Indonesia

As the population of a city increases, there will be excessive exploitation of nature, uncontrolled land use change, and a decrease in the environment’s carrying capacity. These impacts cause flood disasters to increase in quantity and quality. Floods are still difficult to predict and avoid. Medan City is still haunted by the same problem as other cities in Indonesia, namely flooding. The government has focused on flood management by building a horizontal drainage network system, normalizing rivers, building embankments, but flooding still occurs frequently. Therefore, vertical drainage is needed for flood management. Vertical drainage drains surface water directly into the soil layer that horizontal drainage cannot accommodate. This research aims to study the ability of vertical drainage in Medan City to reduce flood risk. Based on the test results, vertical drainage has a discharge of 0.812 liters/second. Based on technical calculations, vertical drainage can distribute potential rainwater collected on the surface and with the addition of possible water from other sources at the research site within 9 minutes 1 second until it runs out as much as 440 liters. As a result, one vertical drainage system can effectively accommodate an area of 25 m2.

Urban flood hazard assessment in Awka metropolis using multi-criteria decision process

Urban flooding is an escalating global threat, and Awka Metropolis in Anambra state Nigeria is no exception. The city's rapid urbanization and inadequate infrastructure have left it increasingly vulnerable to flooding, exacerbated by the impacts of climate change. Anticipated flood effects include disruption of daily life, infrastructure damage, and threats to public safety, necessitating urgent attention. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of urban flood hazards in Awka Metropolis, utilizing an integrated approach combining the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Flood Hazard Index (FHI) to gauge the city's flood vulnerability. The primary objectives were to identify key geophysical factors contributing to flooding, categorize these factors by their vulnerability, determine their reliability indices, delineate flood-prone zones, and generate a spatial flood extent map. The methodology encompassed data acquisition, pre-processing, Flood Modeling (evaluating slope, Elevation, Drainage Network, and flow accumulation), the application of Analytical Hierarchy Process, and the utilization of the Flood Hazard Index. The results classified Awka Metropolis into three flood risk zones: high (837.84 hectares, 14.70%), moderate (2182.65 hectares, 38.30%), and low (2678.45 hectares, 46.99%). These findings provide indispensable insights into the distribution of flood hazards across the city, enabling urban planners and authorities to strategically allocate resources, prioritize mitigation initiatives, and formulate targeted flood risk reduction strategies. Importantly, the incorporation of stakeholder input enhances the study's practical relevance and applicability in real-world urban planning and disaster management scenarios. In conclusion, this research offers a robust and multidimensional framework for assessing urban flood hazards in Awka Metropolis. The synergy of the Analytical Hierarchy Process and Flood Hazard Index equips urban planners, policymakers, and disaster management agencies to proactively tackle the mounting urban flooding challenges. The study's outcomes contribute to the development of sustainable flood risk reduction measures, ultimately enhancing the resilience of Awka Metropolis to future flood events.

Flood susceptibility modeling using geo-morphometric ranking approach in Jhelum River basin, Pakistan

This study is modeling flood susceptibility in Jhelum River Basin by employing Geo-Morphometric ranking approach. The study area is located in the Monsoon region and exposed to heavy rainfall events. Every year monsoon rainfall and melting of snow and glaciers together generate flash floods in the upper catchment and then riverine flood in the low-lying areas. Watershed modeling approach is used to delineate the Jhelum watershed and its sub-watershed. Advance Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) is utilized as input data in ArcMap software environment. Then Geo-Morphometric ranking model is applied to rank the susceptibility of each sub-watershed to flood. The analysis showed that geo-morphometric characteristics vary from basin to basin. There are 44 sub-basins which cover area less than 1000 ​km2. The area of sub-basins ranges from 47.68 ​km2 to 7667.77 ​km2. Based on our results, area of sub-basin directly impacts flood susceptibility. Geo-morphometric parameters such as gradient, relief and geology of basin such as type of bed rock govern the drainage pattern. The results of the study can assist line agencies and concerned government departments to design location specific flood risk reduction strategy.

Risk-based portfolio planning of dike reinforcements

A system of dikes in flood-prone areas continuously requires measures to mitigate changes such as ageing and climate change. Planning costly measures requires proper insight into system risk effects. Especially in a riverine dike system, the risk contributions of individual assets to the system flood risks are not independent, because reinforcement of a dike upstream increases the risks downstream. Tactical plans define the planning of consecutive measures to implement a flood risk reduction strategy, which may take decades. They may differ due to choices such as a prioritization metric, planning conditions and budget. In this study, a method is developed to compare different tactics to prioritize and plan measures in interdependent systems of dikes to reduce risks most effectively and efficiently. A case study meant as a proof of concept was carried out for the reinforcement of about 500 km of dikes along the Rhine River branches in the Netherlands. We studied the effects of 12 different tactical plans on the aggregated risks over time. The economic risks differ by up to about 40%, and the risks on victims differ by up to 70 %. We conclude that tactical planning and corresponding decisions are important for reduction of time-aggregated flood risks.

Flood Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies in Urban Area, Bulukumba Regency

Flood is a disaster that often occurs in big cities in Indonesia, caused by the high density of buildings and the unpreparedness of infrastructure to adapt. Urban Areas of Bulukumba Regency (UABR) is one of the centers of urban areas that has experienced flooding in recent years. The urban area ofBulukumba Regency is a downstream area of the Bialo Watershed whose upstream area is also in the Bantaeng Regency area. Rapid urban development has resulted in a change in land cover to become built-up land so that catchment areas are narrower in the middle and downstream zones, as well as changes in vegetation in the upstream zone which has received land conversion from forest areas to plantation areas. In addition to the potential for flooding due to river flow, the urban area of Bulukumba also has the potential for flooding due to sea tides or tidal floods. The high level of hazard flood potential has not been followed up with sustainable flood management based on disaster risk reduction in the UABR. Based on this, it is necessary to study the level of risk of flooding in the Urban Area of Bulukumba Regency and an appropriate strategy to reduce the risk of flooding in the Urban Area ofBulukumba. The aim of this research is; (1) identify the level of risk of flooding in the UABR; and (2) formulate an appropriate strategy as an effort to reduce the risk of flood disaster in the UABR. The research approach used is the mixed method, with the analytical method used for data processing in the form of risk analysis, spatial analysis namely overlay analysis using GIS software and qualitative descriptive in formulating strategies. The results of this study are a map of the level of flood disaster risk and recommendations for flood risk reduction strategies in the UABR.

Flood risk assessment of the population in Afghanistan: A spatial analysis of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability

Flooding is a recurrent and severe natural hazard in Afghanistan, exacerbated by climate change, and poses significant threats to human lives and livelihoods. The country's socioeconomic vulnerabilities make it highly susceptible to the devastating impacts of disasters, resulting in loss of lives, livelihoods, and damage to public and private assets. This study employs a multimethod research approach, combining remote sensing-based flood data analysis with spatial analysis and literature studies, to comprehensively assess flood risk by considering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indicators. Specifically, a 25-year return flood event was used to examine flood risk for the exposed population. The framework proposed by the IPCC in 2014 was adopted to define flood risk, encompassing hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components. The findings reveal that provinces located near major river basins, particularly in the southern, northern, and northeastern regions, experience the highest flood risk. Notably, the provinces of Nimroz and Helmand in the southern region exhibit pronounced risk index values of 0.20 and 0.10, with a highly exposed population of 36% and 15%, respectively, and vulnerability index values of 0.57 and 0.62. Similarly, in the northern and northeastern regions, the provinces of Jawzjan and Kunduz also display elevated risk levels, each with a risk index value of 0.11, characterized by highly exposed populations of 21% and 18%, respectively, and vulnerability index values of 0.53 and 0.57. This multi-method approach provides valuable insights into the spatial distribution of flood risk and the drivers of population exposure, assisting policymakers and decision-makers in formulating effective flood risk reduction strategies through targeted flood vulnerability and risk reduction measures.

The role of the courts in conflict resolution in UK flood risk management

AbstractConflicting interests in flood risk management (FRM) frequently arise, resulting in disputes which are often resolved through mutual agreement. Nevertheless, a small number of cases require legal intervention when negotiation or mediation fails. This can publicly reveal the conflict often hidden in these mutual agreements. The two areas that intersect to create this conflict are spatial planning and flood risk reduction strategies that may impact property rights. This research explores the nature of such conflict in FRM and its possible resolution. Through an analysis of 25 all‐UK legal Court transcripts, we investigate the underlying flood‐related disputation, dispute types, and how they were resolved. Our findings reveal that certain disputes remain unresolved prior to Court proceedings due to misunderstandings about spatial planning in at‐risk areas. In addition, the depiction and the accuracy of flood risk assessments can be a contentious issue. Some FRM disputes remain irresolvable due to the differences in collective and individual aspirations about the use of land by various interests: developers, local authorities, residents, landowners, and farmers. Understanding these FRM disputes and their judicial resolution is valuable in unambiguously revealing who are the ultimate ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ in these fiercely contested struggles.

An Integrated Multidimensional Resilience Index for urban areas prone to flash floods: Development and validation

Resilience analysis is critical in developing flash flood risk reduction strategies in the context of global change and sustainable development. The most common method for assessing resilience is index-based. Nevertheless, the resulting indices typically fail to represent resilience's multidimensional character since they frequently disregard all involved dimensions (i.e., social, economic, environmental, physical, institutional, and cultural). Furthermore, regional resilience indices are rarely externally validated in urban areas prone to flash flooding because the required data are limited and flash flooding does not occur concurrently throughout the study region. This research developed and validated a regional Integrated Multidimensional Resilience Index (IMRI) in urban flash flood-prone areas to address the aforementioned knowledge gaps. The Monte Carlo method enabled internal validation of the IMRI following uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. Latent Class Cluster Analysis (LCCA) was used to characterize resilience, leveraging resulting regional spatial patterns. The findings obtained revealed that the most resilient urban areas have greater social and cultural resilience, while the least resilient urban areas should strengthen their social and institutional resilience. Validation results demonstrated a low bias between the IMRI scores and the control statistics derived from the Monte Carlo analysis as well as a higher than 80 % probability of not getting variations in the resilience categories, confirming the robustness of the IMRI. Through LCCA, five distinct regional spatial patterns of resilience were identified. The methodological approach deployed here enabled the identification of the underlying characteristics that determine the urban system's resilience to flash flooding, thereby supporting the formulation of resilience-building strategies for each dimension and urban area under consideration.

Constructing a social vulnerability index for flooding: insights from a municipality in Sweden

Floods disproportionately affect disadvantaged groups. Social vulnerability assessments are the first step in designing just and equitable flood risk reduction strategies. In Sweden, earlier social vulnerability indices apply top-down approaches. In this paper, we develop and apply a combined bottom-up and top-down approach to assess social vulnerability to flooding at a sub-municipal level in Sweden. We tested an indicator-based climate risk and vulnerability framework, more specifically the impact chain method suggested by the Vulnerability Sourcebook. We involved stakeholders using various participatory methods in three workshops, interviews, and informal exchanges to identify variables and indicators for social vulnerability. The Indicators were aggregated into a composite social vulnerability index using exploratory factor analysis. We thereafter mapped the social vulnerability index scores to uncover spatial injustices. We found that the proposed social vulnerability index captures municipal nuances better than national-level approaches. Our findings indicate an uneven spatial distribution of social vulnerability that mimics the overall patterns of income segregation found in the municipality. Many areas that score low in social vulnerability endure high exposure to floods. The social vulnerability index can support municipalities in designing just and equitable interventions toward flood risk reduction by serving as an input to policymaking, investment strategies, and civil protection.

Flood Simulation and Flood Risk Reduction Strategy in Irrigated Areas

The potential risk of flood or waterlogging in irrigation districts has increased due to global climate change and intensive human activities. This paper employed a waterlogging process simulation model for flat irrigation districts in the paddy fields to simulate floods under different scenarios. The scenarios of the rainfall conditions, initial storage depths, and work scales are designed, respectively. The risk of flood damage increases as rainfall increases, with a maximum increase of 62.8%, comparing the extreme scenario with the current scenario. A moderate rise in pumping station flow and using pre-rain drainage measures in the paddy fields can effectively reduce waterlogging loss. The total regional flood damage was reduced by up to 10.9%, 15.8%, and 35.9% when the pump station flow in the study area was increased by 10%, 20%, and 30%. The insights from this study of the possible future extreme flood events may help flood control planning.

The role of modeling scheme and model input factors uncertainty in the analysis and mitigation of backwater induced urban flood-risk

Recent flood-related disasters, which affect many areas of the world due to a combination of climate change and increasing urbanization, have prompted researchers to study catastrophic phenomena for which large-scale mitigation strategies are needed. However, lower impact flood events occur more frequently, and although these floods are relatively less destructive, they can be effectively mitigated with local protection measures. This work focuses on understanding the factors that influence the reliable modeling of these lower impact - and less studied - flood events. We propose a procedure that combines the use of a simple but effective numerical model of the last segment of Ticino River with a Global Sensitivity Analysis for an in-depth evaluation of: i) the backwater-induced flooding of an urban area in the historical city of Pavia (Northern Italy) and ii) the potential flood damage due to such events. A 1D, unsteady HEC-RAS model (termed the 3R Model) was set up and validated against historical floods. Then, the 3R Model output was compared with a hybrid 1D/2D model of the same area. Both model schemes provide reliable results and similar predictions of the flood depth and its spatial extent. The 3R Model is demonstrated to be a successful modeling approach, providing a computational cost that is always less than one-tenth of the cost of the hybrid 1D/2D for the simulated floods. The Morris method of sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most influential factors affecting the results of the 3R Model to help inform local policies aimed at flood risk reduction. The Morris results highlight that the maximum water level of the Po river has a dominant role in determining the flood magnitude for the whole area, with an influence at the control points in the floodplain that is more than triple that of the Ticino maximum flow rate. A Damage Index quantifying the housing loss due to the urban flood extent was introduced and analyzed using the Morris method. The results show that the predicted flood damage is strongly influenced by the uncertainty in the roughness coefficient of the floodplains. The contemporaneity of the floods on the Ticino and Po Rivers was also influential, playing a key role in flood severity within the urban area. A 5-hour delay of the Ticino flood wave (maximum flow rate of 2000 m3/s) with respect to that of the Po River (maximum stage level of 59.8 m a.s.l.) reduces the water level in the flooded area by 8 cm. These results will help the development of flood risk reduction strategies.

Understanding Flood Vulnerability in Local Communities of Kogi State, Nigeria, Using an Index-Based Approach

In West Africa, the impacts of flooding are becoming more severe with climate warming. Flood-prone communities in Kogi State in north-central Nigeria are affected by annual flooding and some extreme flood events. The negative impacts remain a major obstacle to development, environmental sustainability, and human security, exacerbating poverty in the region. Reducing and managing the impacts of flooding are increasingly becoming a challenge for individual households. Analysing vulnerability to flooding (a function of exposure, susceptibility, and lack of resilience) and identifying its causes using an index-based approach to achieve sustainable flood risk management were the focus of this study. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect relevant data from 400 households in 20 purposively selected communities. Based on expert opinions and an extensive literature review, 16 sets of relevant indicators were developed. These indicators were normalised and aggregated to compute the flood vulnerability index (FVI) for each community. This was then used to compare, classify, and rank communities in terms of their vulnerability to flooding. The results of the study showed that the selected communities were at varying levels of the risk of flooding. Four of the communities including the Onyedega, Ogba Ojubo, Odogwu, and Ichala Edeke communities were found to have very high vulnerability to flooding compared to others. Several factors such as poor building structures, lack of evacuation and flood management measures, over-dependence of households on agriculture, lack of diversification of economic activities, and weak household economic capacity were identified as causes. These findings are useful for developing flood risk reduction and adaptation strategies, such as ecosystem-based approaches, to reduce current and future vulnerability to flooding in Nigeria and other developing countries with similar conditions.

Flood hazards and housing prices: a spatial regression analysis for Hat Yai, Songkhla, Thailand

PurposeGlobal warming exacerbates sea level rise and extreme weather events that cause severe flooding, resulting in lost productivity and property damage. To reduce the impact of flooding, residents are avoiding purchasing homes in high-risk areas. There are numerous studies on the relationship between flood hazards and housing prices in developed countries, but few in developing countries. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the relationship between flood hazards and housing prices in Hat Yai, Songkhla, Thailand.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses spatial-lag, spatial error and spatial autoregressive lag and error (SARAR) models to analyze the effect of flood risk on property prices. The main analysis examines the degree of flood risk and housing rental prices from our survey of 380 residences. To test the robustness of the results, the authors examine a different data set of the same samples by using the official property valuation from the Ministry of Finance and the flood risk estimated by the Southern Natural Disaster Research Center.FindingsThe SARAR model was chosen for this study because of the occurrence of spatial dependence in both dependent variable and the error term. The authors find that flood risk has a negative impact on property prices in Hat Yai, which is consistent with both models.Originality/valueThis study is one of the first to use spatial econometrics to analyze the impact of flood risk on property prices in Thailand. The results of this study are valuable to policymakers for benefit assessment in cost–benefit analysis of flood risk avoidance or reduction strategies and to the insurance market for pricing flood risk insurance.

Practical flood risk reduction strategies in South Sudan.

More extreme weather patterns caused by climate change are leading to more intense and frequent flooding in some of the world's most vulnerable locations. The Republic of South Sudan faces obstacles mitigating rivers and urban floods caused by heavy rainfall in many of its regions. Through a focused review of the related literature, this study will first analyze the effectiveness and failures of the South Sudanese government's attempts to mitigate flood risks, save lives, and prevent property damage. Study data are derived from various sources including peer-reviewed research, government and nongovernment documents, and the news media. Next, using similar qualitative review methods, a parallel case study from Bangladesh will be used to glean comparative findings and help formulate flood risk reduction recommendations for South Sudan. Findings include that government efforts are highly reactive and lack adequate resources to address flood mitigation. Analysis also indicates that locally driven structural and nonstructural disaster risk reduction efforts are critical to reducing vulnerability to this ongoing and intensifying threat. The study implications and recommendations advance the existing literature on this topic and are relevant to any global region displaying vulnerability opposite the complex threat of repeated intense flooding.

Linking flood risk perceptions and psychological distancing to climate change: A case study of rural communities along Indus and Chenab rivers, Pakistan

Climate change contributes to the increasing frequency and severity of floods around the globe. Developing countries are being disproportionally affected. In 2010, Pakistan witnessed one of the worst floods in its history. One-fifth of the country was severely affected, leading to major economic losses and casualties. Thus, it is imperative to understand climate change and flood risk perception for designing flood risk reduction and climate change adaptation strategies. This study examines flood risk perception and psychological distance to climate change of rural communities along the Indus and Chenab rivers in Muzaffargarh district, Pakistan. Flood risk perception was measured using three main components, i.e., awareness about floods, worry (about floods), and preparedness. Psychological distance to climate change was quantified using five dimensions, i.e., psychological, geographic, social, temporal, and uncertainty. Yamane sampling method was used, and 365 samples were collected. The data was collected using household surveys from rural communities. Descriptive statistics, chi-square test, ANOVA-test, and Pearson's correlation were performed. Results indicate that overall flood risk perception and psychological distance to climate change was moderate in a high flood risk area. A negative correlation was also observed between uncertainty and worry. Regression analyses indicate a strong positive influence of homeownership on flood risk perception and the converse impact on the psychological distance to climate change. This study can help integrate the philosophies of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. The paper also highlights the need to improve risk communication strategies to help people understand climate change and its impacts, adopt precautionary measures, and reduce flood risks.