Flood hazards and housing prices: a spatial regression analysis for Hat Yai, Songkhla, Thailand

Abstract

PurposeGlobal warming exacerbates sea level rise and extreme weather events that cause severe flooding, resulting in lost productivity and property damage. To reduce the impact of flooding, residents are avoiding purchasing homes in high-risk areas. There are numerous studies on the relationship between flood hazards and housing prices in developed countries, but few in developing countries. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the relationship between flood hazards and housing prices in Hat Yai, Songkhla, Thailand.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses spatial-lag, spatial error and spatial autoregressive lag and error (SARAR) models to analyze the effect of flood risk on property prices. The main analysis examines the degree of flood risk and housing rental prices from our survey of 380 residences. To test the robustness of the results, the authors examine a different data set of the same samples by using the official property valuation from the Ministry of Finance and the flood risk estimated by the Southern Natural Disaster Research Center.FindingsThe SARAR model was chosen for this study because of the occurrence of spatial dependence in both dependent variable and the error term. The authors find that flood risk has a negative impact on property prices in Hat Yai, which is consistent with both models.Originality/valueThis study is one of the first to use spatial econometrics to analyze the impact of flood risk on property prices in Thailand. The results of this study are valuable to policymakers for benefit assessment in cost–benefit analysis of flood risk avoidance or reduction strategies and to the insurance market for pricing flood risk insurance.