Flood risk assessment of the population in Afghanistan: A spatial analysis of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability

Abstract

Flooding is a recurrent and severe natural hazard in Afghanistan, exacerbated by climate change, and poses significant threats to human lives and livelihoods. The country's socioeconomic vulnerabilities make it highly susceptible to the devastating impacts of disasters, resulting in loss of lives, livelihoods, and damage to public and private assets. This study employs a multimethod research approach, combining remote sensing-based flood data analysis with spatial analysis and literature studies, to comprehensively assess flood risk by considering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indicators. Specifically, a 25-year return flood event was used to examine flood risk for the exposed population. The framework proposed by the IPCC in 2014 was adopted to define flood risk, encompassing hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components. The findings reveal that provinces located near major river basins, particularly in the southern, northern, and northeastern regions, experience the highest flood risk. Notably, the provinces of Nimroz and Helmand in the southern region exhibit pronounced risk index values of 0.20 and 0.10, with a highly exposed population of 36% and 15%, respectively, and vulnerability index values of 0.57 and 0.62. Similarly, in the northern and northeastern regions, the provinces of Jawzjan and Kunduz also display elevated risk levels, each with a risk index value of 0.11, characterized by highly exposed populations of 21% and 18%, respectively, and vulnerability index values of 0.53 and 0.57. This multi-method approach provides valuable insights into the spatial distribution of flood risk and the drivers of population exposure, assisting policymakers and decision-makers in formulating effective flood risk reduction strategies through targeted flood vulnerability and risk reduction measures.