Five-Year Plan Period Research Articles

Study on the 14th Five-Year Plan for Nuclear and Radiation Accident Emergency

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China’s nuclear and radiation emergency regulations and standards system was gradually strengthened, emergency organizations at all levels were constantly improved. However, there are still some deficiencies in the construction of emergency team, professional technical ability, emergency rescue and so on. This paper comprehensively summarizes the experiences of nuclear and radiation emergency in China during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, and studies the development direction and capacity buildings in the period of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which provides a reference for the construction of nuclear and radiation emergency in China.

Environmental regulation induces technological change and green transformation in Chinese cities

Improving green total factor productivity is an important step for China’s green transformation. By proposing a meta-frontier Malmquist Luenberger productivity indicator, this paper attempts to investigate China’s green productivity evolution and its determinants at the city level during the period of 2003–2016. Our results reveal that China has improved green productivity, and that exogenous technological change acts as the dominant force to drive the change of green productivity. Overall, the effects of technological change induced by environmental regulation (TCIER) have not been fully manifested. Further, we find significant spatial heterogeneities in TCIER: western China shows the highest contribution of TCIER to changes in green productivity, followed by central China, and the contribution is negative in eastern China, due to the region’s relatively lower growth rate in environmental regulation intensity. Nevertheless, from the perspective of evolutionary trends, the TCIER scores of all three regions exhibit upward trends during the review period, ultimately contributing positively to green productivity growth during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011–2015).

Regional coal power overcapacity assessment in China from 2020 to 2025

Since the beginning of 2020, the weak domestic power demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the large-scale advancement of coal power construction projects may have further aggravated the coal power overcapacity in China. Given the new situation, this study collected the data on China’s installed electricity capacity and electricity demand during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Moreover, a reasonable capacity evaluation model of coal power was established based on the energy and electric power balance to analyze China’s coal power overcapacity in 2019 and determine the reasonable capacity for 2025. The internal reasons of unreasonable energy structure and regional difference of energy structure are systematically discussed. Results show that the overcapacity in 2019 was approximately 170 GW, and the overcapacity situation in North, Northwest, and South China was particularly serious. The reasonable coal power capacity for 2025 under the basic situation is 950 GW, indicating that if all the coal power units under construction and planning are operated, the overcapacity in 2025 will be 300 GW. Sensitivity and comprehensive scenario analyses show that under different scenarios, the upper and lower limits of the reasonable coal power capacity in 2025 are 1083 and 794 GW, respectively. Finally, this paper proposes relevant policy recommendations to cope with China’s serious coal power overcapacity problem.

Logic and Path of Modern Science and Technology Governance in Universities During the 14th Five-year Plan Period

Logic and Path of Modern Science and Technology Governance in Universities During the 14th Five-year Plan Period

An Empirical Analysis of the Service Efficiency of Basic Public Education Based on the BCC-DEA Model of Neural Network Computing Principles

Aiming at the problem that the performance ranking analysis method in the traditional BCC-DEA model will produce infeasible solutions under the assumption of variable returns to scale, this paper proposes to apply the neural network calculation principle to the DEA performance ranking analysis, thereby establishing a BCC based on the neural network calculation principle -DEA model, and then use this model to analyze the efficiency of basic public education service investment in Jilin Province during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, and studied the details of the nine-year compulsory education service. The implementation measures and implementation rules examine the relationship between the government’s interactions between educational resources and economic benefits. The layer is facing empirical research in Jilin Province as a whole. The study found that the overall high speed of basic public education services in Jilin Province is insufficient, and the education system, management level, and pure technical efficiency of resource allocation are the main factors affecting overall efficiency. Various investments made by the government during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the efficiency changes in the whole period: the overall comprehensive efficiency changes in Jilin Province decreased during the five years, and the direct influencing factors were insufficient progress in education and through a variety of training, and a variety of multimedia education and new technology application. To this end, the paper puts forward the following suggestions: explore the public policy of sufficiency education, improve the performance of resource allocation; build a public policy of responsive education, improve the financial security mechanism; esTablelish a public policy of binding education, improve the system management; promote learning education Public policy to improve the development of capabilities.

China’s Urbanization Strategy and Policy During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China’s urbanization construction has obtained remarkable achievements. Its urbanization continues to advance rapidly. The gap between different regions is constantly narrowed. City clusters have become the strategic core areas to promote urbanization and economic development. Currently, the key issue in China’s urbanization is not about the level or speed, but the quality. Tough challenges faced by China in its urbanization include: (1) granting permanent urban residency to people originally from rural areas (citizenization) is severely lagging-behind; (2) the key links in integrated urban–rural development system and mechanism are blocked and (3) the resources and environment costs in advancing urbanization are excessively high, etc. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China’s urbanization will continue to advance rapidly, but the speed will further slow down. By 2025, China’s urbanization rate is expected to reach about 65.5%, among which the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions will reach 73.0%, 63.1%, 61.2% and 66.7%, respectively. To this end, China’s urbanization should be people-centered and led by high-quality integrated urban and rural development; thus, the urbanization quality can be improved in an all-round way. It should be a path of high-quality urbanization with Chinese characteristics featuring moderate and reasonable advancing speed, effectively improved quality in citizenization, balanced and orderly urbanization pattern, deeply integrated urban and rural development, and green, healthy and sustainable development. In terms of specific measures, the government should strengthen the leading, demonstrating and radiating role of central cities and promote the formation of four-tier central city system, namely, the global central cities, national central cities, regional central cities and local central cities; plan and build 34 high-end metropolitan areas at the national level, making them the core areas of advancing new-type urbanization in the new era; accelerate the process of establishing cities, encourage the transformation of large towns into cities, and strictly control the transformation of counties into urban districts; implement differentiated policies for expanding, stable and shrinking cities and towns, respectively; connect the channels between homesteads exiting the market and collective construction land for commercial use entering the market.

Study on Impact of Industrial Structure Upgrading on Energy Efficiency in the Yellow River Basin—Based on the data of 2001—2019

The Fifth Plenum of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China stressed the need to improve the living environment, achieve high-quality economic development, rationally allocate energy resources and improve the energy use efficiency during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The Yellow River Basin is an important energy base in China, and the energy use efficiency directly affects the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. Based on the analysis of the relationship between industrial structure upgrading and energy efficiency, and the panel data of nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2001 to 2019, this paper empirically analyzed the impact of industrial structure upgrading on energy use efficiency in the Yellow River Basin. Results showed that: On the whole, industrial structure upgrading positively promoted the improvement of energy efficiency in the Yellow River Basin; from the view of sequential variation, the overall energy use efficiency in the Yellow River Basin was on the rise; from the view of spatial difference, the energy use efficiency of provisions in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin was relatively low, and the energy use efficiency in the lower reaches showed significant advantages.

Eco-efficiency and effectiveness evaluation toward sustainable urban development in China: a super-efficiency SBM\u2013DEA with undesirable outputs

Eco-efficiency, especially the total-factor eco-efficiency, measured by DEA models considering undesirable outputs, has been a popular instrument to evaluate sustainable development in recent years. However, sustainable development pursues not only high eco-efficiency which ensures that the utilization of natural resource and environment is in a sustainable way, but also good effectiveness which ensures that the development is in the right direction. In this paper, firstly, the efficiency of sustainable urban development is measured, i.e., measuring the eco-efficiency of 35 major cities in China during the period of 2011–2015 based on a super-efficiency SBM–DEA model with undesirable outputs and the Malmquist–Luenberger index is used to explore the dynamic change of eco-efficiency. Secondly, the effectiveness of urban development is measured by overall well-being including urban HDI and life satisfaction. Thirdly, a comprehensive analysis based on efficiency and effectiveness is conducted to evaluate sustainable urban development. The results indicate that: (1) the overall efficiency of 35 major cities in China as a whole is at a low level during the 12th five-year plan period, and the improvement of total-factor ecological productivity is mainly enhanced by technological progress. (2) With regarding to the effectiveness of urban development, Hangzhou, Jinan, Ningbo, Xiamen and Qingdao rank top five, while the cities with a high level of urban HDI like Guangzhou, Changsha and Beijing only rank in the middle due to a relatively low level of life satisfaction. (3) Based on efficiency and effectiveness, most of the cities perform with a low-level efficiency or poor effectiveness, only four cities including Qingdao, Changchun, Ningbo and Tianjin perform with a relatively high efficiency and good effectiveness. Finally, some implications and policy suggestions are proposed based on the above findings.

Key points and research priorities of schistosomiasis control in China during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

Schistosomiasis was once endemic in 12 provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) along and south of the Yangtze River basin, which seriously damages human health and hinders socioeconomic developments in China. Following the concerted efforts for 70 years, remarkable achievements have been gained in the national schistosomiasis control program of China. However, there are still multiple challenges for elimination of schistosomiasis in the country. This paper describes the current status of schistosomiasis and the challenges during the progress towards the elimination of schistosomiasis, and proposes the goals, key points and research priorities of schistosomiasis control in China during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period.

Research on the effect of Market Mechanism for Industrial Energy Conservation

Over the years, China’ s energy conservation practices has relied on government intervention, that is, the energy efficiency of enterprises has been improved by means of administrative orders and government regulation, but the endogenous power of energy conservation has not been effectively stimulated. Since the 12th Five-Year Plan period, with the improvement of enterprises’ understanding of energy conservation, the government has gradually faded out from its powerful position during the 11th Five-Year Plan period and more attention has been paid to enterprises’ dominant position in energy conservation. The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the CPC put forward that the market shall play a decisive role in the allocation of resources and the energy conservation shall give full play to the role of market mechanisms. Moreover, it also proposed to create a multi-benefit market environment, improve enterprises ’ enthusiasm in energy conservation, actually benefit the enterprises in energy conservation and make the energy conservation a conscious action of enterprises by promoting contract energy management system, carrying out carbon emissions permit trading, implementing power demand side management and using fair and transparent market means.

Analysis of indexes exceeding water quality standards in the Yangtze River basin during the 13th Five-Year Plan period

Based on monitoring data from 615 comparable sections of the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in the national eco-environmental monitoring network during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the spatiotemporal characteristics of Total phosphorus (TP), Ammonia nitrogen (NH3- N), and Chemical oxygen demand (COD) were analyzed. The results showed that during the study period, the overall pollution of the main rivers in the YRB had been mitigated, and the measured amounts of TP, NH3-N, and COD had decreased. However, the annual concentrations of TP, NH3-N, and COD had increased in nearly one-third of the sections, and in some sections they increased greatly. Increased TP was mainly observed in the provinces of Shaanxi, Sichuan, Hunan, and Hubei. Increased NH3-N was mainly observed in Hubei and Sichuan, and increased COD was mainly observed in Hunan, Sichuan, Hubei, and Shanghai. Since the first year of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the water quality of the main rivers in the YRB has continuously improved; however, in some sections the concentrations of some indexes already above water quality standards increased sharply. Under the protection strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Zone, the 14th Five-Year Plan will emphasize requirements for ecological environmental protection to improve the water quality in the YRB.

Research Report on the Status of Social Education Work of Chinese Museums (Public Ownership) During the 13th Five-Year Plan Period

Research Report on the Status of Social Education Work of Chinese Museums (Public Ownership) During the 13th Five-Year Plan Period

How can Public Policies Change the Accumulated Disadvantage of Individuals? Based on the Perspective of Education Poverty Alleviation

Education poverty alleviation is one of the important development strategies during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, and it is a precise poverty alleviation method. So far, China has implemented a number of education poverty alleviation projects, which have significantly improved the education level of individuals, but there is a lack of scientific evaluation on the effect of macro projects on micro individual human capital accumulation. Based on the first phase of National Compulsory Education Project in Poor Areas （hereinafter referred to as the “compulsory education project”） from 1995 to 2000, this paper uses the follow-up survey data of China Labor-force Dynamics Survey （CLDS） in 2012 and 2014 to identify the specific county-level unit where the policy is implemented according to the unpublished county-level code, so as to evaluate the long-term human capital accumulation effect of education poverty alleviation on micro-individuals. In addition, this paper argues that the differences in the length of education beyond the compulsory stage, the quality of education and the beneficiary groups are the internal mechanism of the compulsory education project to promote the continuous improvement of individual education level, which realizes the original intention of public policies to change the accumulated disadvantage of individuals. On this basis, through analyzing the internal mechanism of education and the impact of education on long-term income, this paper further discusses the impact on the future economic status of workers. The study finds that: （1） The compulsory education project makes up for the lack of universal compulsory education years under the Compulsory Education Law, increases the opportunities for students in poor areas to receive education, increases the education years of individuals in poor areas on an absolute and relative level, and significantly reduces the phenomenon of dropping out of school and delaying reading. In this sense, the compulsory education project has realized the original intention of the education poverty alleviation policy. （2） However, the impact of the implementation of the compulsory education project on male and female workers has some differences. After the implementation of the project, there is still a large gap between the investment and expenditure of education at the per capita level, and the popularization quality of this compulsory education is relatively poor. Most workers do not further receive education above junior high school, resulting in relatively poor professional skills in the labor market. （3） The policy does not promote the workers to continue to receive education beyond the compulsory education stage, resulting in relatively low wage income and slow growth rate. With the continuous improvement of the average social education level, the positive effect of the project is gradually declining. Further improving the education level of poor areas has become an important content of targeted poverty alleviation in the new period. This paper puts forward two plans to alleviate the problem that the policy dividend of compulsory education project is weakening day by day, and the role of changing the accumulated disadvantage of individuals is also gradually decreasing: （1） Further bringing senior high school education into the compulsory education stage, and promoting the improvement of individual education years by increasing the legal years of education. （2） Continuing to issue continuing education policies for poor areas, and encouraging individuals to continuously improve their education level and professional skills. At the same time, continuing to implement the dynamic monitoring of education projects to ensure the effective implementation of relevant policies.

中国石油“十三五”油气勘探重大成果与“十四五”发展战略

中国石油“十三五”油气勘探重大成果与“十四五”发展战略

Parent and Substitute Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Reduction in Urban Rivers—Benefits of the Energy Transition Policy from 2009 to 2017 in Beijing, China

The impact of the policy of coal-fired reduction and clean energy growth promoted in Beijing, China, during the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plan Period (2011–2020) on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (...

Current Situation of Building Energy Conservation and Green Building Development and its Transformation and Upgrading Countermeasure in Henan Province

In national environment of energy conservation and emission reduction and green building in China, the development of green building has been gradually promoted in Henan Province. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the green building had developed for several decades in Henan Province, and the application of its technology is developing from a diversified perspective. From the analysis of the current development status, although the energy efficiency level of green building has increased by 20% compared with the 12th Five-Year Plan period, green buildings develop in varying degrees in various cities in Henan province. Due to the high cost of green building, the green building policy is not thoroughly implemented in the whole process. It is urgent to improve the current industrial structures in such a state, change the traditional architectural structures, transform and upgrade the construction industry.

A Research on the Development of Remanufacturing Industry in the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

Efficient use of resources and promotion of circular development are important tasks for strategic development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. China actively promotes the development of the remanufacturing industry, but there is still room for improvement in many aspects such as the industry’s laws and regulations, technical systems, and consumer awareness. Improving the remanufacturing industry system will help us meet future challenges. Combined with theoretical research, this research constructs a remanufacturing industry model. It analyzes the feasible measures of each subject to promote the development of the industry from the perspective of the return on the profits of the original manufacturers, remanufacturers and the government participating in the remanufacturing market.

How Did the Changes in Industrial and Energy Structure Influence Energy Consumption in Shandong, China?

The Gross Regional Product (GRP) of Shandong ranks third in China, but its energy and coal consumption rank first. However, in the past studies, no effort was made to analyze the influence of Shandong energy conservation and emission reduction policies on energy consumption changes. To make up for this gap, the revised divisia index and the energy consumption structure methods were used in this study to analyze the driving force of changes in energy consumption in Shandong from 2005 to 2016. The results of this research show that: Firstly, the control of energy-intensive industries and strong energy conservation policies had become the main driving forces for energy density reduction. Secondly, the energy structure optimization policies only increased the proportion of hydro, nuclear and new energy production to replace a proportion of oil, but could not effectively reduce the consumption and proportion of coal. The continuous increase in coal consumption offset the energy conservation effect by key industries during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period. It is clear that a reduction in the amount of coal used and an increase in the proportion of hydro, nuclear and new energy (especially in the industrial sector) is at the core of the energy problems in Shandong. Policy recommendations are proposed that are based on the findings of this study.

基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的我国大气污染防治重点区域环境空气质量与经济增长关系研究

改革开放以来，中国经济迅猛发展，但大气污染等环境问题日益突出。进入21世纪，我国通过颁布实施多项大气污染防治政策，将京津冀及周边地区、长三角地区、珠三角地区等大气污染较严重的区域划定为重点区域，针对性制定治污措施和实施减排工程，努力推动区域环境空气质量改善。基于2000-2019年我国31个省（自治区、直辖市）（以下简称31个省份）GDP，以及SO₂、PM₁₀、NO₂三项大气污染物浓度数据，利用环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC，Environmental Kuznets Curve）模型，对31个省份和京津冀及周边地区、长三角地区、珠三角地区的经济增长情况、大气污染物浓度演变以及二者之间的关系进行了系统全面的分析评估。研究结果显示：（1）近年来实施的各项大气污染防治政策，特别是2013年以来颁布实施的《大气污染防治行动计划》《打赢蓝天保卫战三年行动计划》，推动环境空气质量改善的同时，促进了经济发展与环境保护长期关系协调性逐步增强，除NO₂浓度呈U型外，31个省份SO₂浓度、PM₁₀浓度与人均GDP的EKC曲线呈倒U型和倒N型，并处于快速下降阶段。（2）京津冀及周边地区SO₂浓度与人均GDP呈倒U型，且处于快速下降阶段；PM₁₀和NO₂浓度均呈现U型关系，且均处于上升期。（3）长三角地区SO₂、PM₁₀浓度与人均GDP呈现倒U型和U型，但均处于下降阶段；NO₂浓度与人均GDP无相关关系。（4）珠三角地区SO₂、PM₁₀和NO₂浓度与人均GDP均呈现倒U型关系，且均处于下降阶段。为此，建议"十四五"期间我国政府要继续实施新一轮的大气污染防治行动计划，聚焦机动车NO_x污染管控，大力推动NO₂浓度稳步下降，以实现我国环境空气质量持续改善，为统筹经济高质量发展和生态环境高水平保护奠定坚实基础。;Since the reform and opening-up, China's economy has obtain rapid development. However, the environmental problems in China such as air pollution have become increasingly prominent. In the 21st century, a number of air pollution prevention and control policies were promulgated by the Chinese government, while the serious air polluted areas such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta region and the Pearl River Delta region were designated as key areas of air pollution control. To improve the regional air quality, pollution control measures and emission reduction projects have been implemented. This research uses the Environmental Kuznets Curve (abbreviated as EKC) to analyze the economic growth, the trend of atmospheric pollutants concentration and the relationship between the two in China and the key areas of air pollution control, based on the GDP and the concentration of SO₂, PM₁₀, and NO₂ in China's 31 provinces from 2000 to 2019. The results show that: (1) the air pollution prevention and control policies in recent years, especially the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Air Pollution and The Three-year Action Plan to Beat Air Pollution, have significantly improved the air quality and the relationship between economic development and environmental protection since 2013. The EKC of GDP per capita and SO₂ concentration is inverted U-shape while that of PM₁₀ concentration is inverted N-shape, both in a rapid decline phase. However, the EKC of GDP per capita and NO₂ concentration is U-shape. (2) The EKC of GDP per capita and SO₂ concentration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas is an inverted U-shape, being in a rapid decline phase while those of PM₁₀ and NO₂ concentrations are both U-shape with an upward trend. (3) The EKC of GDP per capita and SO₂ and PM₁₀ concentration in the Yangtze River Delta region are inverted U-shape and U-shape respectively, both in a decline phase. Yet the NO₂ concentration has no correlation with GDP per capita. (4) The EKC of GDP per capita and the three pollutants concentration in Pearl River Delta region are all inverted U-shape, being in a decline phase. Therefore, it is recommended that the Chinese government launches new air pollution control plans which focus on the control of NO_x production by motor vehicles for the continuous decline of NO₂ concentration. All the efforts will lead to high-quality economic development and high-level protection of the ecological environment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

关于“十四五”时期畜禽养殖废弃物资源化利用政策的建议

关于“十四五”时期畜禽养殖废弃物资源化利用政策的建议