基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的我国大气污染防治重点区域环境空气质量与经济增长关系研究

Abstract

改革开放以来，中国经济迅猛发展，但大气污染等环境问题日益突出。进入21世纪，我国通过颁布实施多项大气污染防治政策，将京津冀及周边地区、长三角地区、珠三角地区等大气污染较严重的区域划定为重点区域，针对性制定治污措施和实施减排工程，努力推动区域环境空气质量改善。基于2000-2019年我国31个省（自治区、直辖市）（以下简称31个省份）GDP，以及SO₂、PM₁₀、NO₂三项大气污染物浓度数据，利用环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC，Environmental Kuznets Curve）模型，对31个省份和京津冀及周边地区、长三角地区、珠三角地区的经济增长情况、大气污染物浓度演变以及二者之间的关系进行了系统全面的分析评估。研究结果显示：（1）近年来实施的各项大气污染防治政策，特别是2013年以来颁布实施的《大气污染防治行动计划》《打赢蓝天保卫战三年行动计划》，推动环境空气质量改善的同时，促进了经济发展与环境保护长期关系协调性逐步增强，除NO₂浓度呈U型外，31个省份SO₂浓度、PM₁₀浓度与人均GDP的EKC曲线呈倒U型和倒N型，并处于快速下降阶段。（2）京津冀及周边地区SO₂浓度与人均GDP呈倒U型，且处于快速下降阶段；PM₁₀和NO₂浓度均呈现U型关系，且均处于上升期。（3）长三角地区SO₂、PM₁₀浓度与人均GDP呈现倒U型和U型，但均处于下降阶段；NO₂浓度与人均GDP无相关关系。（4）珠三角地区SO₂、PM₁₀和NO₂浓度与人均GDP均呈现倒U型关系，且均处于下降阶段。为此，建议"十四五"期间我国政府要继续实施新一轮的大气污染防治行动计划，聚焦机动车NO_x污染管控，大力推动NO₂浓度稳步下降，以实现我国环境空气质量持续改善，为统筹经济高质量发展和生态环境高水平保护奠定坚实基础。;Since the reform and opening-up, China's economy has obtain rapid development. However, the environmental problems in China such as air pollution have become increasingly prominent. In the 21st century, a number of air pollution prevention and control policies were promulgated by the Chinese government, while the serious air polluted areas such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta region and the Pearl River Delta region were designated as key areas of air pollution control. To improve the regional air quality, pollution control measures and emission reduction projects have been implemented. This research uses the Environmental Kuznets Curve (abbreviated as EKC) to analyze the economic growth, the trend of atmospheric pollutants concentration and the relationship between the two in China and the key areas of air pollution control, based on the GDP and the concentration of SO₂, PM₁₀, and NO₂ in China's 31 provinces from 2000 to 2019. The results show that: (1) the air pollution prevention and control policies in recent years, especially the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Air Pollution and The Three-year Action Plan to Beat Air Pollution, have significantly improved the air quality and the relationship between economic development and environmental protection since 2013. The EKC of GDP per capita and SO₂ concentration is inverted U-shape while that of PM₁₀ concentration is inverted N-shape, both in a rapid decline phase. However, the EKC of GDP per capita and NO₂ concentration is U-shape. (2) The EKC of GDP per capita and SO₂ concentration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas is an inverted U-shape, being in a rapid decline phase while those of PM₁₀ and NO₂ concentrations are both U-shape with an upward trend. (3) The EKC of GDP per capita and SO₂ and PM₁₀ concentration in the Yangtze River Delta region are inverted U-shape and U-shape respectively, both in a decline phase. Yet the NO₂ concentration has no correlation with GDP per capita. (4) The EKC of GDP per capita and the three pollutants concentration in Pearl River Delta region are all inverted U-shape, being in a decline phase. Therefore, it is recommended that the Chinese government launches new air pollution control plans which focus on the control of NO_x production by motor vehicles for the continuous decline of NO₂ concentration. All the efforts will lead to high-quality economic development and high-level protection of the ecological environment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.