Regional coal power overcapacity assessment in China from 2020 to 2025

Abstract

Since the beginning of 2020, the weak domestic power demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the large-scale advancement of coal power construction projects may have further aggravated the coal power overcapacity in China. Given the new situation, this study collected the data on China’s installed electricity capacity and electricity demand during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Moreover, a reasonable capacity evaluation model of coal power was established based on the energy and electric power balance to analyze China’s coal power overcapacity in 2019 and determine the reasonable capacity for 2025. The internal reasons of unreasonable energy structure and regional difference of energy structure are systematically discussed. Results show that the overcapacity in 2019 was approximately 170 GW, and the overcapacity situation in North, Northwest, and South China was particularly serious. The reasonable coal power capacity for 2025 under the basic situation is 950 GW, indicating that if all the coal power units under construction and planning are operated, the overcapacity in 2025 will be 300 GW. Sensitivity and comprehensive scenario analyses show that under different scenarios, the upper and lower limits of the reasonable coal power capacity in 2025 are 1083 and 794 GW, respectively. Finally, this paper proposes relevant policy recommendations to cope with China’s serious coal power overcapacity problem.