Fertility Rate In China Research Articles

How educational inequality affects family multichild behavior—evidence from super high schools

In a context characterized by the dual issues of educational inequality and problems with fertility, the internal relationship between these two factors requires further in-depth exploration. On the basis of data drawn from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2010 to 2018, this paper investigates whether “super high schools” in cities represent a form of educational inequality, uses a combination of a two-way fixed effect model with the instrumental variable method to discuss the influence of this situation on family fertility and the corresponding transmission mechanism, develops a proportional risk regression model, and expands our understanding of the influence of educational inequality on the second-child birth interval. This study reveals that educational inequality significantly suppresses the number of family births and that the paths of action associated with this effect include both the explicit and implicit costs of education. The inhibitory effect of educational inequality on the number of family births varies according to urban grade, urban or rural classification, and the education levels attained by women. In addition to decreasing the number of family births, educational inequality increases the second-child birth interval. This paper not only enriches related research on family multichild behavior but also provides an educational reference for attempts to address the issue of continuously low fertility rates in China and establish a connection between population and educational economics.

A Study on the Essence of Paternity Leave

The declining fertility rate in China is being considered a serious issue, and introducing maternity leaves for males is widely seen as a feasible solution. However, the possible effects of this practice are still uncertain. This paper mainly focuses on how paternity leaves contribute to the fertility rate. Furthermore, this paper draws on research that shows that when maternity leaves for females stand alone, women suffer from increasing discrimination in the workplace and legitimating maternity leaves for males could elevate gender equality. This paper also introduces research on Swedens demography as a case of international comparison. This work concludes that paternity leave could raise peoples willingness to bear children by reducing the tension in workplaces and families. It is pointed out in the work how, resulting from paternity leaves, promoted gender equality and fatherhood in families could increase the fertility rate, building up bases of further research in these areas.

Research on the Low Fertility Rate in China

Research on the Low Fertility Rate in China

A reassessment of trends and rural–urban/regional differences in the total fertility rate in China, 2000–2020: analyses of the 2020 national census data

The decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) is a key driver of population change and has important implications for population health and social development. However, China’s TFR has been a considerable controversy due to a lack of high-quality data. Therefore, this study used the 2020 national population census of China (NPCC) data and reverse survival method to reassess temporal trends in the TFRs and to reexamine rural–urban differences and regional variations in TFRs from 2000 to 2020 in China. Overall, there were significant gaps between the estimated and reported TFRs before 2020, and the estimated TFRs based on the 2020 NPCC data remained higher than the reported TFRs from government statistics. Although TFRs rebounded shortly in the years after the two-child policy, they have shown a wavelike decline since 2010. Additionally, the estimated TFRs fluctuated below 1.5 children per woman in urban areas compared to above 1.8 in rural areas, but the rural–urban differences continued to decrease. Regarding geographic regional variations, the estimated TFRs in all regions displayed a declining trend during 2010–2020, especially in rural areas. Large decreases of over 25% in TFRs occurred in the north, east, central, and northwest regions. In addition to changing the birth policy, the government and society should adopt comprehensive strategies, including reducing the costs of marriage, childbearing, and child education, as well as promoting work-family balance, to encourage and increase fertility levels.

Analysis Of Influencing Factors of Population Fertility Rate: A Case Study of China

Population fertility rate is one of the essential indicators to study the population size and trend of a country or region, which is of great significance for the government to formulate population policies, plan social development and optimize the labor market. China's total fertility rate has shown a continuous decline since 2014, falling to 1.30 in 2020, reaching the lowest level in history. Based on the relevant data of the National Bureau of Statistics of China and some relevant literature, this paper analyzes the main factors affecting the fertility rate and their specific influencing mechanisms with China as an example. This paper examines the factors from the perspectives of population, macro economy, macro policy and fertility concept. This study also discusses the reasons for the continuous decline of the fertility rate in China since 2014. The analysis found that the gender ratio, education level, aging, economic development, youth unemployment rate, fertility costs, fertility policies, fertility concepts, and COVID-19 all have a certain degree of impact on China's fertility rate.

Analysis of Chinas Birth Rate Prediction Based on Time Series

The birth rate in China has declined significantly since the last century, especially in recent years. Low fertility intentions and deferred childbirth were the main contributors to the drop in fertility. Nowadays, the aging problem has become more and more serious in our country. Therefore, raising the birth rate has become the top priority for the government and society. Our research modelled and predicted the fertility rate in China using R. We used the dataset from Health Nutrition and Population Statistics on Databank and selected the historical fertility rate data in China from 1964 to 2021. Firstly, we transformed these data to make the birth rate time series stationary. Then, we applied the ARIMA and the ETS models, respectively and chose the better model to forecast the short-term birth rate in China in the next five years. We found that the ARIMA model was more appropriate for predicting the short-term birth rate in China. As a result, we utilized the ARIMA(0,0,1) model for prediction. We calculated that the growth rate of the birth rate in China from 2022 to 2026 was - 0.117, which demonstrated that the fertility rate in China would decrease constantly at a rate of 0.117 each year over the ensuing five years. If the government of China still did not take any measures to improve the fertility problems, the fertility rate would further decline. Consequently, the fertility rate in China is facing an unprecedented crisis.

Fertility Transition in China and its Causes

Abstract Demographic transition faced by modern economies, including China, are among the most important long-term socio-economic challenges. In 2022, China observed its population decline for the first time since the early 1960s. The low fertility rate was of critical importance. The unprecedented one-child policy is quite commonly indicated as the main reason for the low fertility rate. However, the departure from this restrictive policy and the actions introduced under the two-child policy implemented from 2016, and then the three-child policy from mid-2021, have not brought an improvement in fertility rates. The aim of the paper is to answer the following research questions: Should the decline and persistent low fertility rate in China be attributed solely or mainly to the unprecedented one-child policy, which was in force for over three decades? Fertility transition in China is the effect of several factors and depends largely on the studied period. In the 1970s and 1980s, the government’s family policy was a key determinant of the decline in fertility. However, contrary to the prevailing belief about the determining influence of the one-child policy, the first stage of the implementation of the birth control policy, the Wan, Xi, Shao program, had a greater impact. Since the 1990s, the low fertility rate has been mainly explained by the extraordinary socio-economic changes and rapidly increasing prosperity of the Chinese people. Since the beginning of the 21st century, cultural changes resulting mainly from the integration of the Chinese economy with the global system have been crucial. Cultural changes have affected reproductive behaviour, marriage patterns, marriage postponement, birth postponement, fertility, and family size in Chinese society, which is observed below-replacement fertility. China’s demographic future depends on the fertility trajectory. However, due to the size of the population, but also the position of the Chinese economy in the global economic system, Chinese demographic transition may also bring significant consequences for the global economy.

Analyzing Declining Fertility Rate in China: A Multifaceted Examination and Policy Implications

Analyzing Declining Fertility Rate in China: A Multifaceted Examination and Policy Implications

From fatherhood premium to motherhood penalty: trends in the fertility effects on men's and women's wage in China (1989–2015)

Investigating the impact of fertility on the wage earnings of men and women and its trends is important for understanding and coping with both the widening gender wage gap and the continuously declining fertility rate in China. Through an in-depth analysis of China Health and Nutrition Survey data from 1989 to 2015, the study finds that in the late 1980s, fertility had a significant positive impact on the wage earnings of men in China, while the negative impact on women's wages was not significant. Over time, the fatherhood wage premium has been declining, while the motherhood wage penalty has been rising at a faster rate, and the gender wage gap has been widening. The expansion of the market sector in China since the deepening of reforms in 1992 is an important reason for the rapid increase of motherhood wage penalty.

Will reducing the burden of extracurricular tutoring raise fertility willingness in China? Five policy suggestions

The average education expenditure of each child accounts for more than half of the family's per capita income in China and has held back the fertility intentions. Will the decree on unloading the burden of extracurricular tutoring raise future fertility willingness in China? Using China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) cross-sectional data in 2018, we simulate the effects of reduction in extracurricular tutoring hours and expenses on fertility behavior. The results reveal that extracurricular tutoring explains low fertility rate in China. The mothers in the one-child families are less likely to have a second birth due to participation in job markets and threshold in their career. The willingness of giving birth to a second child is remarkably increased along with the reduction in extracurricular training activities, especially for urbans. Reduction in tutoring expenditure plays a bigger role in adults' second-child desire than do tutoring hours.

Fertility transition of Han and ethnic minorities in China: A tale of convergence and variation

China's large and diverse population exhibits interethnic variations in fertility, socioeconomic status, and culture. This study comprehensively analyzes data from multiple population censuses and qualitative interviews to identify fertility transition dynamics among ethnic groups in China. Taken together, the quantitative and qualitative results reveal a rapid decline in total fertility rates among both Han and ethnic minorities and a trend of convergence across different ethnic groups over the past few decades; in addition, the findings also show significant heterogeneity within ethnic minority populations. Our analysis sheds further light on the crucial role of social context and macro-level factors in shaping individuals’ reproductive behaviors. The results offer insights into how policies may address low fertility rates in China.

The Possible Reasons for the Declining Fertility Rates in China

The low fertility rate is not only a circumstance experienced by developed countries but also in China after 2002. Many social problems occur when the fertility rate is low, so the reasons for the declining fertility rate in China need to be discussed to help to improve. From a macro perspective, scholars have already found several causes including China's public policy, national conditions, as well as world situations, and environmental pressures. But the exploration of reasons from a micro viewpoint is still limited. So the research is aim to collect first-hand material from a real micro angle to search for the reasons for decreasing fertility rate in China based on qualitative analysis using observation and also the interviews of 35 interviewees who were born from 1970 to 2002 by asking two to eight questions person to person. What's more, three controversial measures, illegitimate childbirth, legitimate surrogacy, and legitimate homosexuality that could raise the fertility rate in the Chinese context are also discussed. According to the results, it is suggested that the thoughts and values of marriage and fertility are different from age to age. And the views on marriage and fertility can be diverse in the same age generation, even total opposite opinions in the same generation also exist. But most people have negative or partly negative attitudes to marriage or fertility(including first child or second child), mainly restricted in a kind of social and realistic problems. When it comes to illegitimate childbirth, legitimate surrogacy, and legitimate homosexuality in the Chinese context, most interviewees have neutral or supportive attitudes toward legitimate homosexuality, but partly negative and negative attitudes to illegitimate childbirth, and legitimate surrogacy.

Relationship between aging population, birth rate and disposable income per capita in the context of COVID-19.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 in early 2020 and the recurring epidemic in later years have disturbed China's economy. Moreover, China's demographic dividend has been disappearing due to its fastest aging population and declining birth rate. The birth rates in eastern provinces of China are much lower than those of the western provinces. Considering the impacts of the COVID-19 and aging population, this paper focused on the relationship between birth rate and the disposable income and tried to find effective measures to raise China's birth rate. We discovered through regression analysis that the link between per capita disposable income and birth rate is initially "reverse J" and later "inverted J", indicating that per capita disposable income will influence the birth rate. Women's employment rate and educational level are negatively correlated with the birth rate. To raise the fertility rate in China, it is necessary to increase the marriage rate and the willingness to have children by raising the per capita disposable income and introducing effective tax relief policies.

A Study on the Influencing Factors of Fertility Rate in China

Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, the family planning policy, as a basic state policy of China, has had a very profound impact on the development of the Chinese economy. Due to the dropping fertility rate in recent years, the birth rate has once again been under intense public scrutiny. To comprehend the reasons for the reduction in fertility, we must comprehend the variables that affect the fertility rate. It was discovered that the fundamental demographic position of the nation is influenced by the economy, education, and the state's fertility policy. By developing regression equations and examining the generated mathematical models, this research comes to the conclusion that the rates of female illiteracy, the elderly dependency ratio, the juvenile dependency ratio, and elderly dependency have a major impact on fertility rates. This study will assist the government in determining what can be done to raise the rate of fertility.

Analysis of factors affecting fertility rate in China

Fertility is an important factor that determines the trend of population development in China. In recent decades, Chinas fertility rate is declining. Nevertheless, the formation mechanism and influence behind it are still lack of unified explanation. Hence, this article researches and analyzes the reasons of the decrease of Chinas fertility rate through factor analysis and cluster analysis based on the data collected in the past two decades since 2002. On the basis of this article, the per capita disposable income of residents, the crude divorce rate, the number of divorce registrations, the urban population ratio, and the high school enrollment rate have a prominent relevance with the fertility rate. In addition, the fertility rate alters in the past 20 years in this paper can be divided into three categories: the fertility rate was relatively stable from 2002 to 2011, the fertility rate increased significantly and fluctuated slightly from 2012 to 2015, and the fertility rate decreased rapidly from 2016 to 2021. If the government hopes to maintain a high birth rate, it can achieve this by easing the birth policy and improving the divorce calm down period system.

Social norms and fertility intentions: Evidence from China.

China's low fertility rates are a major concern across all sectors of society. Fertility is a major issue related to economy, society and family development. Based on social norms theory, this paper explores the influence of social norms on individuals' fertility intentions from two perspectives: spatial proximity and social proximity. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies, we found that individual's fertility intentions were influenced by social norms; both neighborhood social norms and group social norms had significant effects. The role of social norms in shaping individual fertility intentions varied by gender, hukou, and life course; specifically, men, rural residents, and married individuals were more significantly influenced by social norms. This study improves the theoretical framework of fertility decision making by arguing that in addition to macro and individual factors, social norms have a very important influence on fertility intentions. Our findings suggest that reshaping social norms regarding fertility is essential to enhance fertility rates in China.

Economic Uncertainty, Cultural and Ideational Transition, and Low Fertility

Increased objective uncertainties, upward movement in the hierarchy of needs, and associated cultural and ideational transition are inherent to modern societies. These factors were previously treated as independent macro-shocks and studied separately, without regard for their interactions. In this paper, we provide an all-around framework to interpret fertility behavior and low fertility in developed economies, to compensate for the isolation of economic uncertainty from a cultural and ideational transition in previous empirical studies. In this regard, we conduct an empirical analysis of panel data of 34 OECD countries from 2000 to 2018, to discuss the impact of economic uncertainty on the fertility rate and the moderating effect of cultural and ideational transition on that impact. Below are our findings: (1) economic uncertainty significantly inhibits the fertility rate, and such an inhibiting effect is found to be underestimated after endogeneity is controlled; (2) according to heterogeneity analysis, the inhibiting effect of economic uncertainty on the fertility rate is stronger after the 2008 financial crisis and among low-income economies and countries where Confucianism is practiced; (3) a significant negative moderating effect of cultural and ideational transition on the relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility rate is observed, indicating that the inhibiting effect of structural dimensions that combine objective and subjective factors regarding the fertility rate may be self-reinforcing; and, (4) further tests show that economic uncertainty and cultural and ideational transition affect the fertility rate by means of the effect of delayed parenthood, the substitution of cohabitation for marriage, and fertility preferences. We find that fertility behavior is cumulatively affected by both economic uncertainty and cultural and ideational transition. This implies that reducing economic uncertainty and fostering a culture that encourages marriage and fertility are fundamental for increasing the fertility rate in China, a country resorting to the third-child policy to promote a fertility rebound.

The effect of female education on fertility: Evidence from China’s compulsory schooling reform

This paper examines the causal impact of women’s education on fertility by exploiting the cross-regional and cross-time variations in the enforcement of compulsory schooling reform in China. Using data from the 2010 Chinese Census, we find that increased women’s education permanently reduces fertility, which is different from the evidence in many countries where women compensate at later ages for the initial loss in births. We also find that increased education has a greater negative effect on the total live births of rural hukou women. When examining the potential channels underlying the relationship, we find that increased women’s education reduces child mortality, delays women entering the marriage market and childbirth, increases the opportunity costs of childrearing, and promotes positive assortative mating. Our research provides an additional explanation for the rapid decline in the total fertility rate in China.

Number of siblings, access to treated water and returns to education in China

Using survey data from China (1989–2015), we investigate the impact of the number of siblings and treated water on educational attainment of children and its effect on their earnings when they join the labor force. Instrumental variables (IV) estimation shows that increase in the number of male siblings can increase the educational attainment of females. However, the effect of an increase in the number of female siblings on educational attainment of either males or females is statistically insignificant. Access to treated water during the childhood period (0–16 years) has a positive effect on educational attainment of boys. The estimated returns to education for females (6.6%) are higher than males (5.3%). The low fertility rate in China since the introduction of one-child policy led to fewer brothers, which contributed to a decrease in educational attainment of females. Improved public facilities (e.g., availability of treated water in rural areas) can increase the educational attainment of boys and thus reduce the gender earnings gap. With higher returns to education, extension of the compulsory education to senior secondary stage and loosening of the one-child policy is likely to yield relatively higher benefits to females.

Investigation of Participants’ Fertility Intentions under the “Three-Child” Policy in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China

The objective of this study was to describe the fertility intentions and the possibility of having a third child of participants in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region since the “three-child” policy was adopted in China and to explore factors associated with intentions to have a third child. This study was conducted among 1525 participants from five universities using a questionnaire from September to November 2021 in Guangxi, China. Data were collected on the student’s sociodemographic characteristics and fertility intentions. A descriptive analysis, chi-square test, difference test and ordered logistic regression model were used for data analysis. The ideal number of children among the participants in Guangxi was 1.89 ± 0.52, and the average number of planned children was 1.49 ± 0.88. Although the policy encouraged having a third child, fewer than a tenth (5.5%) of participants clearly intended to. More than 15% (17.6%) of participants clearly intended not to have child. Compared with female participants, male participants had more planning number of child (P value = 0.003) and were more likely to have a third child (P value = 0.000). The earlier participants get married the more likely to have a third child (P value = 0.000). Compared with urban participants, rural participants were more likely to have first and second children (P value = 0.003), but there was no significant difference in the possibility of having three children. Participants show lower fertility intentions and less likely to have third child under the “Three-child” policy. More fertility intentions’ researches and supplementary measures are urgently needed to improve fertility rates in China.