Analysis of factors affecting fertility rate in China

Abstract

Fertility is an important factor that determines the trend of population development in China. In recent decades, Chinas fertility rate is declining. Nevertheless, the formation mechanism and influence behind it are still lack of unified explanation. Hence, this article researches and analyzes the reasons of the decrease of Chinas fertility rate through factor analysis and cluster analysis based on the data collected in the past two decades since 2002. On the basis of this article, the per capita disposable income of residents, the crude divorce rate, the number of divorce registrations, the urban population ratio, and the high school enrollment rate have a prominent relevance with the fertility rate. In addition, the fertility rate alters in the past 20 years in this paper can be divided into three categories: the fertility rate was relatively stable from 2002 to 2011, the fertility rate increased significantly and fluctuated slightly from 2012 to 2015, and the fertility rate decreased rapidly from 2016 to 2021. If the government hopes to maintain a high birth rate, it can achieve this by easing the birth policy and improving the divorce calm down period system.